Course Overview.
The Renaissance Club is this week’s host course for the second year running which gives us last year’s event to review for a starting point.
Despite sitting on Scotland’s ‘Golf Coast’ in the stretch of land between Muirfield and Archerfield Links, the Renaissance Club isn’t an historic links track – instead it was manufactured from an old pine forest and opened in 2008.
Aesthetically it looks linksy on a stretch of land that’s famous for its links tracks and built to a brief to make it appear like it had been there for a century, however for the purists it’s more ‘links-like’ than pure links. Trees and an old wall complicate matters a little in that respect, balanced with 3 new holes which flank the shore, however despite typical deep bunkering, gorse and thick rough, players had little trouble navigating the layout last year whilst making copious amounts of birdies.
The par 71 is listed on the European Tour website as playing 7,343 yards for this week’s test, although that’s from the very back tees and the European Tour have the flexibility to keep the yardage fluid – last year it was listed as 7,138 yards so it remains to be seen how it’s set up each day.
The fairways have been nipped in since Doak originally built the course and a wet year in Scotland so far has encouraged some thick rough to test the players’ mettle this week. The greens are fescue-based, similar to those used at Castle Stuart in this event in the recent past, as well as at Royal Birkdale for the 2017 Open Championship.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Scottish Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event. As noted above, Renaissance Club hosted this event for the first time last year: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, 40/1; 2018: Brandon Stone, 400/1; 2017: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, 50/1; 2016: Alex Noren, 50/1; 2015: Rickie Fowler, 22/1; 2014: Justin Rose, 14/1; 2013: Phil Mickelson, 22/1; 2012: Jeev Milkha Singh, 100/1; 2011: Luke Donald, 10/1; 2010: Edoardo Molinari, 70/1.
For a summary of winners’ odds on the European Tour since 2010 click here.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here. Cold, wet and breezy conditions will be the order of the day this week in Scotland with temperatures barely breaking 50 Fahrenheit and wind-speeds averaging 15mph with gusts in the 20-25mph range. The weekend holds a certain level of uncertainty at this stage, however there’s a good chance that a named storm hits the British Isles late on Saturday which could make for a wild end to the tournament.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
Analysing the final stats of the top 3 finishers from last year’s event held here at the Renaissance Club gives a little more insight into what’s required to succeed on this track:
- 1st, Bernd Wiesberger (-22). 302 yards (16th), 63.5% fairways (30th), 81.9% greens in regulation (23rd), 53.8% scrambling (59th), 1.65 putts per GIR (6th).
- 2nd, Benjamin Hebert (-22). 293 yards (37th), 55.8% fairways (57th), 86.1% greens in regulation (5th), 60% scrambling (50th), 1.64 putts per GIR (5th).
- 3rd, Romain Langasque (-20). 299 yards (22nd), 55.8% fairways (57th), 87.5% greens in regulation (4th), 77.8% scrambling (10th), 1.69 putts per GIR (19th).
In truth, the top 2 positions could have quite easily been reversed last year had Hebert taken his chances, but the stats between the two were similar in that high GIR and good putting when finding the greens was the order of the day, although the latter was in short supply in the play-off if we’re being brutally honest.
The reality last year was that hitting greens wasn’t remotely an issue – you have to go all the way down to Kurt Kitayama in 43rd place before finding a player who failed to find 70% of GIR – and players hitting 80% or more was commonplace. Proximity therefore was of more importance for setting up birdie opportunities, as of course was having a putter warm enough to convert at a regular rate. Put into context, Wiesberger made a massive 30 birdies on the week with the bulk of the damage being done on the par-5s (13-under for the week from a 22-under winning total).
Incoming Form: Current form students wouldn’t have taken long to dismiss the chances of Brandon Stone at Gullane back in 2018 with the South African having failed to break the top-60 on any of his previous 7 starts. 400/1 was the reward for punters who managed to overlook his recent finishes.
Prior to that, as well as last year’s success from Bernd Wiesberger, recent form for all winners of this event since 2010 listed below had been good enough to shortlist them at least, with each Scottish Open champion in that time having recorded a minimum of one top-10 finish in their last 4 starts. In fact you can extend that trend right back to 2002 with the marginal exception of 2004 winner Thomas Levet, however he had finished 8th at Wentworth 5 starts prior and 2nd in Italy a month before that:
- 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: 23/14/70/1/8/76/16/2
- 2018, Brandon Stone: 22/MC/MC/60/65/MC/MC/69
- 2017, Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/24/4/MC/4/42/26/MC
- 2016, Alex Noren: 50/6/9/MC/43/12/MC/8
- 2015, Rickie Fowler: 71/12/MC/9/1/30/MC/MC
- 2014, Justin Rose: 14/8/5/4/25/MC/12/1
- 2013, Phil Mickelson: MC/16/54/3/MC/2/2/MC
- 2012, JM Singh: 25/32/27/MC/7/MC/30/46
- 2011, Luke Donald: 4/2/8/4/2/1/7/45
- 2010, Edoardo Molinari: MC/17/13/MC/36/4/47/42
Event Form: The victories of Bernd Wiesberger, Brandon Stone and Rafa Cabrera-Bello have also flummoxed event form students over the past 3 seasons. Despite this event hopping about in terms of venue, the 6 Scottish Open winners prior to Rafa had also recorded at least one top-10 finish in this event before lifting the trophy.
The trend stops at Edoardo Molinari, however there may be something positive in terms of experience of playing in similar conditions with similar grasses in the past – indeed the Italian had finished runner-up on his last start on Scottish soil on the Challenge Tour the previous year and with regards Cabrera-Bello, he’d produced a 4th place finish at the Dunhill Links over the years and a further top-10 at Gleneagles. Even Stone with his poor incoming form had finished 15th at the Dunhill Links on his previous start in Scotland:
- 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/MC/31/41/51
- 2018, Brandon Stone: MC
- 2017, Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/MC/MC/47/MC/27/41/21
- 2016, Alex Noren: MC/38/67/67/MC/3/MC
- 2015, Rickie Fowler: 8
- 2014, Justin Rose: 37/5/MC/MC/MC/14
- 2013, Phil Mickelson: 35/MC/44/2/38/MC/58/16
- 2012, JM Singh: 37/MC/MC/43/9/MC/49/42
- 2011, Luke Donald: 5/2/4
- 2010, Edoardo Molinari: 54/MC
In contrast to previous Scottish Opens, this week’s event isn’t an Open Championship warm-up and, in truth, apart from the aesthetics it’s arguable whether last year’s event held here proved to be much of a compatible test ahead of Shane Lowry’s success at Royal Portrush with both Bernd Wiesberger and Benjamin Hebert both reaching 22-under for the 4 days.
Although still fluid at the time of writing, there’s enough concern from the UK weather forecasters to raise the prospect of this weekend being a washout with the prospect of a storm developing on Saturday and into Sunday. How that might affect the tournament remains to be seen, however if we assume that players will need to have the mentality to master changing and potentially challenging conditions, that leads me down a certain path.
For reference, the list of Rolex Series winners now reads as follows: Noren, Fleetwood, Rahm, Cabrera-Bello, Hatton, Rose, Grace, Rahm, Molinari, Olesen, Noren, Knox, Stone, Rose, Westwood, Willett, Lowry, Rahm, Wiesberger, Willett, Wiesberger, Hatton, Fleetwood, Rahm and Westwood. Very few surprises in there in the bigger scheme of things.
My selections are as follows: