Scottish Open Tips 2021

The week before a Major is always a tricky event to decipher and the influx of world-class players into this week’s field makes it no easier.

Jon Rahm heads the betting here this week on his first start since becoming a Major champion, on what will be his Renaissance debut; Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa are also having their first look at this seaside layout this week as they seek to sharpen their games ahead of next week’s main event.

Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas complete the top 5 in the betting and both have practical experience around these parts, finishing 34^th and 9^th respectively in 2019. Rory’s game is still a work in progress, as was evidenced by last week’s tie for 59^th in Ireland, and JT’s putter, whilst seeming thawing at last, might not be warm enough to justify his price on what should be a scoreable track this week.

Of the next batch of players, OWGR number 10 Tyrrell Hatton gets the nod to headline my team this week, largely on the strength of his record at this kind of level. 3 of the past 8 Rolex Series events have been won by the Englishman and when you add his 2017 Italian Open success to the list, that makes his last 4 European Tour titles all at this standard.

Wedged in between those victories, Hatton also secured his maiden PGA Tour title, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational last March to prove that he can also grind when required, however with all 6 of his European Tour titles coming at between -18 to -24, I suspect he’ll be right back in his comfort zone here this week.

The two titles that I’ve not mentioned thus far both came at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, which holds fairly obvious correlations to this week in terms of geography, agronomy, style and scoring, and the 29 year-old can add Scottish Open finishes of 4^th, 2^nd and 9^th in 2014, 16 & 18 to his list of Scottish efforts.

14^th here in 2019 on Renaissance debut was quietly impressive as he led the field for SG Approach and was 4^th for SG Tee to Green – a poor putting performance was ultimately his downfall that week. More quality long game nearly got him over the line at the Palmetto Championship on his penultimate on the PGA Tour where again his putting ultimately let him down.

That’s something that won’t persist forever though for a putter of Tyrrell’s quality, and having had some downtime since the US Open, he’ll have had plenty of time to sort out that aspect of his game. He won straight off the bat last October at Wentworth having missed the cut at the previous US Open and with the weight of playing at the Olympics now off of his mind, I can see him seriously pushing for the title here this week. RESULT: T18

Aside from world number 1 and bookies’ favourite Jon Rahm, nobody in this field beat Guido Migliozzi’s effort at Torrey Pines last month and the Italian’s form has to be respected here this week.

A tie for 4^th alongside Collin Morikawa, who rates as a 14/1 chance this week, and ahead of the likes of Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas, who alongside eventual winner Rahm make up the top 5 in the betting here this week, suggests that he may be a little bit better than his price suggests.

Of course a single result, even it was on Major Championship debut, doesn’t automatically qualify a player to sit alongside the golfing elite in the betting, and nor should it. However, runner-up finishes prior to that in Denmark and at The Belfry suggest that a third European Tour title may not be very far away at all.

13^th on his last start at the Travelers Championship was also impressive, and we saw first hand last week with Lucas Herbert how those kind of finishes on the PGA Tour can translate into success at European Tour level. Strokes Gained in the long game category have been the key to much of his success of late – 6^th for SG Tee to Green at Torrey Pines a case in point – and although the putter can blow a little hot and cold, if it’s compliant this week then he could threaten the market principals here in Scotland.

At the age of 24 we’re still finding out what makes Guido tick, and it’s fair to say that his best work has tended to come on shortish, parkland tracks. That said, 2^nd in Qatar earlier this year shows some good diversity in terms of agronomy and conditions and 6^th to halfway here on debut in 2019 shows a certain liking for the course, so I’m not going to pigeon-hole him just yet. 6^th for SG Approach and 9^th for SG Tee to Green that week is encouraging when you consider that he lost strokes on the greens; 2 years on and he’s putting much better in general and has the knowledge now that he can compete with the kind of names that adorn this week’s entry list. RESULT: T35

Becoming a father has given Andrew Johnston the perspective on life that he undoubtedly needed having struggled with the mental challenges that post-pandemic golf threw at him and his peers.

He got 9 holes into his round at last year’s British Masters before calling it a day and recorded a 71 here at Renaissance before withdrawing; around that were some sporadic signs of form coupled with some less impressive efforts, however the past 2 months or so give strong signs of encouragement that family life has helped bring some equilibrium and, as such, the results are starting to flow.

A second round 63 in Gran Canaria was the first sign that Beef was playing some tidy golf and scoring well – noteworthy for a player who we’re more accustomed to seeing playing well on tougher tracks. He repeated that feat a fortnight later in Tenerife on his way to a 4^th place finish, before finishing 17^th at The Belfry.

14^th in Germany and 9^th in Ireland over the past 2 weeks have been hampered by a slow Friday on both occasions, however outside of that he’s been playing some very tidy golf and looks on the brink of contending once again. 5^th for GIR at the BMW International Open, combined with 3^rd for Scrambling and 11^th for Putts per GIR last week at the Irish Open, suggests that all aspects of the 32 year-old’s game are in good shape and that’s backed up by SG rankings of 3^rd for Approach and 2^nd for Tee to Green, plus 2^nd for Putting, over those two outings respectively.

The Barnet man’s maiden Challenge Tour victory came on Scottish soil in Aviemore, plus he finished 4^th here at Renaissance in 2019 on course debut despite losing strokes with the putter. He was nearly 10 strokes better in that respect last week in Ireland and if he can take that flat stick form into this week then he could well go very close here. RESULT: MC

At longer prices, Edoardo Molinari was tempting having produced some strong performances with his irons in the not-so-distant past, ranking 1^st for GIR at both the British Masters and the Porsche European Open where he finished 8^th and 2^nd respectively. A spark with the putter could see him contend in an event that produced his first European Tour victory back in 2010, however my preference goes to Richie Ramsay who, like the Italian, is seeking a 4^th European Tour title here this week.

34^th here in 2019 was his best result at Renaissance having missed the cut last autumn, however he arrived here 2 years ago having failed to make the weekend on his previous 3 starts. 65 to open and 67 to close that week were decent efforts after a poor run of results and he arrives here this time around in far better nick.

10 cuts made from his last 11 starts has kept the pay cheques rolling in and 3^rd to halfway at both the Kenya Open and Canary Islands Championship have given the 38 year-old brief tastes of contention in recent times.

4^th last week at the Irish Open was the Edinburgh native’s best finish on Tour for 4 years and there should be some good momentum in his game coming into what is a home tie with Renaissance a short drive along the coast from his home. Generally a tidy player from tee-to-green, positive SG Putting performances over his last 3 starts are noteworthy and 11^th on that count last week was his best effort in that respect for getting on for 2 years.

Although Richie’s 3 European Tour wins have come as far afield as South Africa, Morocco and Switzerland, his form in his homeland is strong with 3 top-10 finishes at the Dunhill Links the most notable, included in which a runner-up finish in 2014. 6^th at the 2016 Scottish Open is his best result in this event, however he’s got it in his locker to equal or better that while playing well so close to home in my view. RESULT: T15

Perhaps it’s a little fanciful to suggest that two Southgates will be celebrating success on Sunday – and this statement might already be blown out of the water by Wednesday evening if Gareth’s men fail to put Denmark to the sword at Wembley – however stranger coincidences have happened. Well maybe.

Those of you who’ve persevered with my previews over the years know that I’m a sucker for backing Matthew Southgate on links, or links-style assignments, and although that assertion hasn’t always paid off, the facts are there that this is the terrain he enjoys the most, so if and when he does finally make a breakthrough on the European Tour, I suspect there’ll be something linksy about the venue.

Firstly, the facts. Victory at the 2010 St Andrews Links Trophy as an amateur offers the first clue that Southgate can not only handle coastal conditions but positively enjoys them, and he followed that up with more positive Scottish form when finishing 2^nd at the Scottish Hydro Challenge on his rookie season on the Challenge Tour a year later, before winning his card later that year at Q-School.

4^th at the 2016 Irish Open, 2^nd in the same event a year later at Portstewart, 5^th at the Open de France and 2^nd at the 2019 Dunhill Links rate as the 32 year-old’s 4 best OWGR-producing finishes on Tour outside of the Majors and all carry some correlation to this week’s task.

12^th at the 2016 Open Championship at Royal Troon and 6^th the following year at Royal Birkdale are Matt’s strongest pointers though to his ability on links set-ups and he’ll be desperate to earn himself another opportunity to show what he can do at Royal St George’s this year by bagging himself one of the 3 available spots with a lofty finish here this week.

Missing out to Victor Perez at that 2019 Dunhill Links was a bitter pill to swallow for Southgate as he looked the most likely winner for a large part of the week, and he came up short once again last month at the Porsche European Open, finishing in a tie for 2^nd behind The Bullet.

2^nd for GIR that week is exactly what Matt’s all about when at the top of his game and that marries nicely with what we saw here from the contenders in comparable conditions 2 years ago; 2^nd for SG Approach and 6^th for SG Tee-to-Green are also impressive stats from that effort and having rested since his missed cut at the US Open, he should be fully focussed on the task at hand here this week on terrain that suits. RESULT: T26

Finally I’m adding a 6^th selection given the generous pricing and each-way terms available this week, and that’s Marc Warren.

It was exactly a year ago that the European Tour took its first baby steps towards re-establishing a makeshift schedule as Covid protocols were put into place, and the 40 year-old was the first player to succeed in the brave new world, converting a 1-shot victory at the Austrian Open whilst carrying his own clubs.

For those of you who believe in biorhythms impacting a golfer’s game that may be enough to peak your interest at the price on offer, however it’s the Glaswegian’s form in his homeland which really peaks mine.

Victory at the 2007 Johnnie Walker Championship was the first in a string of impressive Scottish results over the years, included in which we find 3 top-5 finishes at the Dunhill Links, a semi-final appearance at the Paul Lawrie Match Play, and 4 top-4 finishes at the Scottish Open – the most recent of which was here at Renaissance in October. Very often we’ve seen him put obscure or downright awful form behind him when he’s played in Scotland and he’s showing a little more than that right now to suggest he might just surprise here once again.

After a barren spell following an impressive 5^th place finish at Rolex Series level in Abu Dhabi at the start of the year, an opening 68 at the BMW International Open hinted at some better form before he produced progressive rounds of 71/70/70/69 last week in Ireland to finish in a tie for 28^th.

A much improved long game performance combined with a field-leading 1.58 putts per GIR was the catalyst for the step forward and although there were still gaps in his performance with his irons, this week sets up as an easier task to find greens in the requisite number and that should equate to more birdie opportunities for our man.

Warren is also the type who can get out of the blocks early and although there are no First Round Leader markets at the time of writing, he’s one for the shortlist in that market too at what should be an attractive price. RESULT: MC