Paul Williams

Paul Williams' SDC Championship Tips 2023

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For the second consecutive DP World Tour event, the bookies’ favourite at halfway – Yannik Paul in India and Jayden Schaper last week – have both failed to convert when carrying our money. Paul’s chance was clearly better having led by 5 after 36 holes, however I was quietly confident that Schaper could make up for that in Kenya before a fairly flat weekend put paid to those dreams.

We move on and the DP World Tour heads to South Africa for a fortnight of co-sanctioned events alongside the Sunshine Tour. A new event first, the SDC Championship (Skills Development Corporation – a South African education and training business) takes us to St Francis Links for the first time on the DP World Tour, before we return to Steyn City in Johannesburg for the freshly-titled Jonsson Workwear Open next week.

Antoine Rozner and Jordan Smith share favouritism this week, however the fact that both rate as 22/1 chances in places tells us that their position at the top of the pile is fairly uneasy. Adri Arnaus, Julien Brun and Jayden Schaper follow behind in what is a very open, full-field affair with a whole host of players available further down the list at 4-figure prices as the quality quickly thins out.

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the SDC Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as The Masters approaches. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, 6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Overview. A new course to the DP World Tour, St Francis Links is a Jack Nicklaus Signature course set just off the coast of St Francis Bay in one of the southernmost points of South Africa.

Stretching to 7,192 yards for its par of 72, a regular setup of 10 par 4s and 4 each of the par 3s and par 5s will greet the players this week, with a variety of hole lengths to keep things interesting. 3 sub-400 yard par 4s will present scoring opportunities to the players, as will the 533 yard par-5 13th, however this course has proven to be no pushover in the past when it’s hosted Sunshine Tour events which form this week’s course stats.

Consistently ranked inside the top-10 for South African golf courses, St Francis Links was forged from the natural surroundings with the layout weaving around the dunes that adorned the area long before the golf course was conceived. Heavy bunkering, penal rough, bushes, and water hazards towards the end of the round present the biggest challenges to players who’ll need to use a variety of clubs and shot types to navigate successfully around this track. The 18 holes are described in more detail here.

sdc championship tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s SDC Championship that will help to shape a view on players who may go well this week. Course form is from the various Sunshine Tour events held here at St Francis Links since 2007, including 2 events in 2022: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Course Winners (Sunshine Tour). 2022: George Coetzee, -15; 2022: Ruan Korb, -13 (54 holes); 2021: Dean Burmester, -17; 2018: Alex Haindl, -12 (54 holes); 2017: Doug McGuigan, -13 (54 holes); 2016: Mark Williams, -11 (54 holes); 2015: Christiaan Basson, -11 (54 holes); 2014: Keith Horne, -9 (54 holes); 2013: JJ Senekal, -4 (54 holes); 2008: Jaco van Zyl, -2 (54 holes); 2007: Titch Moore, -7 (54 holes).

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The tournament should enjoy warm (mid- to high 70s Fahrenheit) and dry conditions throughout the 4 days. The wind will be the main feature this week, with 30-40mph expected on Thursday as well as breezy periods for the other three days, with 20-30mph possible in the afternoons.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. In terms of raw player statistics at St Francis Links, we do have some patchy stats available from the Sunshine Tour events held here:

  • 2022: George Coetzee (-15). 75.6% fairways (19th), 64.8% greens in regulation (31st), 63.2% scrambling (3rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2022: Ruan Korb (-13). 71.4% fairways (28th), 77.8% greens in regulation (5th), 50% scrambling (12th), 1.62 putts per GIR (6th).
  • 2021: Dean Burmester (-17). 70.9% fairways (37th), 79.2% greens in regulation (4th), 46.7% scrambling (18th), 1.70 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2018: Alex Haindl (-12). 69.0% fairways (25th), 87.0% greens in regulation (1st), 57.1% scrambling (6th).
  • 2017: Doug McGuigan (-15). 66.7% fairways (39th), 75.9% greens in regulation (12th), 69.2% scrambling (2nd).
  • 2016: Mark Williams (-11). 66.7% fairways (38th), 74.1% greens in regulation (7th), 50% scrambling (9th).
  • 2015: Christiaan Basson (-11). 83.3% fairways (8th), 74.1% greens in regulation (14th), 71.4% scrambling (1st)
  • 2014: Keith Horne (-9). 82.1% fairways (15th), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 66.7% scrambling (1st).
  • 2013: JJ Senekal (-4). 71.4% fairways (28th), 72.2% greens in regulation (7th), 26.7% scrambling (34th).

Fairways are wide here and even the most flagrant players from off the tee were finding the short grass two-thirds of the time, making this a second shot golf course. From there it’s either a case of maximise greens in regulation or perform well on and around the greens, with the most consistent stat across the renewals being scrambling.

Incoming Form. The incoming form of the last 11 winners here at St Francis Links is as follows:

  • 2022: George Coetzee: MC/36/MC/WD/WD/1/16/22/32/MC/3/17
  • 2022: Ruan Korb: MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/8/41/2/MC/35/MC
  • 2021: Dean Burmester: 6/59/70/MC/35/40/6/40/34/30/MC/7
  • 2018: Alex Haindl: 12/16/3/4/33/25/MC/2/12/5/5/MC
  • 2017: Doug McGuigan: 26/MC/6/33/1/MC/30/20/21/19/19/39
  • 2016: Mark Williams:MC/17/4/MC/26/29/6/7/MC/28/24/35
  • 2015: Christiaan Basson: 8/18/MC/MC/44/7/10/9/27/MC/MC/8
  • 2014: Keith Horne: 54/9/2/15/3/MC/24/9/MC/MC/4/8
  • 2013: JJ Senekal: MC/37/MC/MC/7/MC/31/MC/MC/6/31/39
  • 2008: Jaco van Zyl: MC/MC/14/MC/MC/4/7/2/5/15/11/2
  • 2007: Titch Moore: WD/MC/MC/9/MC/16/38/38/17/10/5/9

Last year’s Sunshine Tour PGA Championship winner George Coetzee had been playing well enough on the DP World Tour prior to his win, finishing 3rd at Le Golf National and 17th at St Andrews before winning here by 3 shots in November.

Ruan Korb’s form was all on the Sunshine Tour prior to his win earlier in the year, however Burmester’s success in 2021 – again at the PGA Championship – came after a 7th place finish at the Dunhill Links, so form at the higher level seems of relevance.

In general, some recent contending form looks positive and every winner here had at least 1 top-10 finish in their last 8 starts and 2 top-10 finishes in their last 10 starts.

A modern links with wind in play helps narrow the field a little this week, with an emphasis on quality ball-striking to scythe through the wind as well as scrambling when greens are inevitably missed looking like key attributes in likely contenders.

My selections are as follows:

Jayden Trey Schaper 2.5pts EW 25/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Coral

Having backed Jayden Schaper in Kenya last week and having seen him contend for much of the event, eventually finishing in a tie for 7th, I’m going to have to stay patient and back him again here this week.

2nd to halfway and rating as the marginal favourite with the bookies at that stage, the weekend simply didn’t contain the requisite number of birdies to keep up with the pace on a week where scoring got a little deeper than I had envisaged. 64 putts over the weekend isn’t going to get the job done, despite peppering greens, however the promise of a tougher week in the freshening wind may well help his cause this week.

17th, 13th and now 7th over the South African’s last 3 starts undoubtedly shows progress as he seeks out his first professional title, and Strokes Gained rankings of 2nd, 3rd and 3rd for Tee to Green, and 1st, 4th and 5th for Around The Green encourage for this week’s task, even if those numbers should be taken with a liberal pinch of salt given their manner of collation.

What can’t be disputed though is that Jayden, who celebrates his 22nd birthday on Wednesday, is striking the ball beautifully at present – ranking 6th for Driving Accuracy and 3rd for GIR last week – and if one viable route to success this week is through quality ball-striking in the breeze then our man is right up there with the best on show.

The other positive is Schaper’s record around these parts. 5th on debut here at St Francis Links at the 2021 SA PGA Championship, he also finished 6th here at the Vodacom Origins in October and 10th at the most recent SA PGA Championship in November. 8th and 12th for Putts per GIR on the first and last of those efforts suggests that he’s comfortable on these greens and, of the market principals, I’m happy to stick with him for another week. RESULT: MC

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Joost Luiten 2pts EW 33/1 (6EW, 1/5) with William Hill

At a similar price point to Schaper, I’m also backing an old favourite of mine Joost Luiten who’s gunning for a 7th title at DP World Tour level, having not won now for just over 5 years.

I’ve talked at length over the years about how the Dutchman is one of the more readable players on Tour when it comes to deciphering his stats, and to me it seems like there’s a perfect storm brewing. The kind of player who regularly ranks highly on long game statistics when he’s swinging well, it’s when that collides with a spark with the putter that he’s dangerous, and to that end there are some very positive signs.

3rd overall at both the Thailand Classic and Indian Open, in terms of traditional stats Joost has ranked 4th and 11th in the field for Putting Average over those two starts respectively, as well as 12th and 22nd for SG Putting.

For a player like Joost, that’s plenty good enough for him to contend and it’s clearly left him in positive mood, writing on his blog recently, “All parts of my game feel very good, if I keep playing like this, that seventh victory on the Tour will come just once and maybe soon too.”

As with a number of the more regular DP World Tour players this will be Luiten’s course debut, however there’s plenty to like in his history to suggest that he’ll get on with this windswept modern links. Twice a winner at the KLM Open which rotates around tracks with varying levels of links-like features, the 37 year-old’s most recent success came by the coast at the 2018 Oman Open.

Just 1 missed cut from 24 starts on South African soil suggests a strong level of comfort in the Rainbow Nation, with 4 top-6 finishes to his name over the years and 3 top-13 finishes in his last 5 trips to this part of the world. RESULT:T9

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Gavin Green 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

The enigma that is Gavin Green is worth chancing this week in my view given that his price has stayed largely the same as last week despite a solid tie for 15th, backing up his 8th place finish a fortnight earlier at the Indian Open.

4 Missed Cuts to start the year had many a tipster flummoxed – me included – after such a strong end to his 2022 campaign. 11th at the Mallorca Open, 2nd behind an inspired Jordan Smith at Vilamoura, 7th on South African soil at the Nedbank and 20th at the Earth Course in far, far better company than this suggested that him capturing a long-awaited maiden DP World Tour title was imminent.

Having got those poor opening efforts in 2023 out of his system, the driver has straightened up considerably over his past 2 starts – ranking 17th and 15th for Driving Accuracy in India and Kenya respectively – however it’s his continued strong form on and around the greens which really excites this week given what we can glean from previous events held at St Francis Links. 16th and 15th for Scrambling over those same two events was complimented by Putting Average ranks of 2nd and 5th in old money, translating to 9th and 2nd for SG Putting.

5th at Doha last year is useful form given the correlation between that course and players who perform well on breezy links, and for form within spitting distance of the coast we don’t have to look much further than that aforementioned effort in Portugal last autumn where he did very little wrong. RESULT: T41

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Daniel Gavins 1pt EW 70/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

The DP World Tour regular offers up incredible finishes to golf tournaments, with Daniel Gavins’ win at the Ras al Khaimah Championship last month another case in point.

Holding a two shot lead standing on the final tee, the Englishman proceeded to knock it in the water twice before holing a 25-foot putt for double bogey to eventually win by 1 stroke after Alexander Bjork made bogey on the same hole.

Despite the drama, that victory goes down as a second Tour title in 18 months for Gavins, having also won the ISPS Handa World Invitational the previous August in rather less dramatic fashion, and there’s no reason why he can’t push on from here on a course that plays to his strengths.

Encouragingly, having seen the 31 year-old go off the boil after his breakthrough win at Galgorm Castle, this time he followed up his victory with a solid 22nd place finish in Thailand in his only start since, ranking 8th for GIR having topped the putting stats on his way to victory on his previous start.

6th at both of the last two Alfred Dunhill Links renewals in far, far stronger company than this, the Leeds man should enjoy the dimensions of St Francis Links and may well take to it quickly on course debut. RESULT: MC

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J.J. Senekal 1pt EW 80/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finally, given that St Francis Links has played host to a variety of Sunshine Tour events over the years, there are a fair few players in this week’s field who can boast positive results around these parts, although few more so than J.J. Senekal.

St Francis was the venue for the South African’s breakthrough Sunshine Tour victory almost a decade ago, prevailing in a play-off over Titch Moore who’s also shown more than a casual liking for this track, having won here in 2007 and also having recorded 3 further top-6 finishes around these parts.

7th in 2015 and 3rd after day 1 here back in November before drifting add further encouragement, and it’s little surprise that the 35 year-old gets on well with this course given that his touch on and around the greens is where his key strengths lie.

2 further Sunshine Tour victories have followed in 2018 at the Zanaco Masters and more recently at the SDC Open last month where he held off Casey Jarvis by 4 strokes, and he’ll be looking to make it a quick-fire SDC double here this week on familiar terrain.

3rd last time out at the Nelson Mandela Bay Championship saw Senekal top both the Scrambling and Putts Per GIR charts, and there’s even a hint that he won’t be overawed at this kind of level having finished 6th at the co-sanctioned Joburg Open at the end of November. RESULT: MC

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:05GMT 13.3.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.