Want to find out more about how DraftKings works for golf? Read our DraftKings Golf Explained page which takes you through the basics!

Happy New Year to you all and welcome to 2018 on the PGA Tour.

After enduring no PGA Tour golf in December, we’re back ready and raring to go – so what should we expect in 2018? In terms of Major Championships we visit Shinnecock Hills (New York), Carnoustie and Bellerive (Missouri) across the U.S. Open, Open Championship and PGA Championship respectively. New host courses on the Tour include Corales Golf Club in the Dominican Republic for a new alternate tournament on the schedule in March, a return to Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo, plus visits to Trinity Forest Golf Club (AT&T Byron Nelson) and Keene Trace Golf Club (Barbasol Championship). Tiger Woods’ National event still has no host course at present.

2018’s PGA Tour action kicks off as ever on the island of Maui, Hawaii. The traditional ‘Tournament of Champions’ winners-only event is always an interesting affair on a spectacular and unique coastal course. Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson are no-shows leaving a high quality field of 34 to slug it out for the well-respected title. With the top 5 players in the world in attendance, namely Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, John Rahm and Hideki Matsuyama, we aren’t short of quality this week in an event where a chunky 50 OWGR points are up for grabs.

Course Guide: From a course design perspective, Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw these days are most famous for their renovation masterpiece at Pinehurst Number 2 which of course hosted the 2014 U.S. Open. However their Plantation Course design at Kapalua, which was opened in 1991, is no ordinary golf course as it sits perched above the Pacific Ocean. A Par 73 format which is unique on the PGA Tour, the course is synonymous with long drives, aggressive play and impressively low scoring. Scratch a little deeper though and it becomes apparent that the course can be mastered just as well by shorter, accurate types who can putt the lights out over 4 days of competition.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua, Lahaina, Hawaii: Designer: Coore & Crenshaw, 1991; Course Type: Coastal, Resort; Par: 73; Length: 7,452 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Fairways Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass, 2″; Greens: 7,120 sq.ft TifEagle Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 10ft. Course Scoring Average 2012: 70.44 (-2.66), Difficulty Rank 48 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.11 (-0.89), Difficulty Rank 32 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.58 (-2.42), Rank 47 of 48 courses. Course Scoring Average 2015: 69.93 (-3.07), Difficulty Rank 52 of 52 courses. 2016: 69.81 (-3.19), Difficulty Rank 50 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.38 (-2.64), Difficulty Rank 50 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for The Plantation Course and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 54 yards wide; 275:58; 300:62; 325:57; 350:61
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 39 yards wide; 275:38; 300:33; 325:29; 350:23
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:26; 325:25; 350:24.
• CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:27; 300:28; 325:28; 350:24.
• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:25; 300:24; 325:23; 350:22.
• Conway Farms: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:29; 300:29; 325:26; 350:28.
• TPC Boston: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:32; 325:31; 350:32.
• Glen Oaks: 250 yards from the tee: 44 yards wide; 275:36; 300:33; 325:38; 350:40.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Coore/Crenshaw designs include:

• Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 U.S. Open

Course Overview: The scoring at Kapalua is always shaped by the strength of the local winds. For 2018 expect stronger Trade (easterly) breezes which will make the course play shorter, but slightly tougher than 12 months ago. Plantation seems long at circa 7,450 yards but the course plays as a Par 73 via a unique 36/37 Par split and is famous for having 11 par-4s and only 3 par-3s. In total the layout features 6 sub-400 yard par-4s. This makes it possible to score heavily with 12 of the 18 holes last term playing easier than their Par. The course has the largest amount of elevation changes on the whole PGA Tour creating blind shots and plenty of uneven lies. Large greens feature extremely grainy TifEagle Bermudagrass with plenty of contours. This combination puts a premium on accurate approach play from the fairway, allied to excellent lag putting to minimise the inevitable long distance 3-putts.

The Plantation Course at Kapalua is easy to misread. At over 7,400 yards and with some of the widest fairways on the PGA Tour, it would be easy to look exclusively for bombers to dominate here. After all, most people remember the closing, downhill par-5 18th hole where brute power gives those that are blessed with length from the tee a real eagle opportunity. However despite wins for both Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson since 2013, brute force and high standard ball-striking alone aren’t enough to unlock the secrets of a format that demands at the very minimum a birdie or better on 1 in 3 holes to be able to contend for victory.

Instead the key to this test tends to be top-class wind play allied to conquering the uniquely contoured and huge 7,000+ sq.ft average green complexes that feature TifEagle Bermudagrass. Eagles and birdies are on offer to those who can putt well on greens where getting close to the hole is a particularly difficult task – indeed Kapalua has ranked inside the top-10 most difficult courses in terms of Proximity to Hole every year since 2011. Tie the difficulty in getting close to the pin in with the fact that putts are tremendously difficult to read, grain is a huge feature and that there are huge variances in putting speed dependant on whether a putt is uphill, flat or downhill. Therefore it becomes clear that course experience is a real advantage. Top quality putters who can compile low scores through astute birdie making in tandem with top-notch scrambling to minimise bogeys should undoubtedly be favoured.

Winners: 2017: Justin Thomas (-22); 2016: Jordan Spieth (-30); 2015: Patrick Reed (-21); 2014: Zach Johnson (-19); 2013: Dustin Johnson (-15, 54 holes); 2012: Steve Stricker (-23); 2011: Jonathan Byrd (-24); 2010: Geoff Ogilvy (-22).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 5 of my published predictor are Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the British Masters / web.com Tour Championship and includes PGA Tour, European Tour and web.com Playoff events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Kyle Stanley; 2) Russell Henley; 3) Ryan Armour; 4) Brian Harman; 5) Brooks Koepka; 6) Dustin Johnson; 7) Brendan Steele; 8) Hideki Matsuyama / Pat Perez; 10) Justin Thomas; 11) Austin Cook; 12) Kevin Kisner.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Brooks Koepka; 2) Kyle Stanley; 3) Dustin Johnson / Brendan Steele; 5) Brian Harman; 6) Pat Perez; 7) Bryson DeChambeau / Hideki Matsuyama; 9) Rickie Fowler; 10) Patton Kizzire; 11) Kevin Kisner; 12) Patrick Cantlay.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Rickie Fowler; 2) Cameron Smith; 3) Justin Thomas; 4) Patrick Cantlay / Marc Leishman; 6) Dustin Johnson / Brooks Koepka; 8) Kevin Kisner; 9) Kyle Stanley; 10) Wesley Bryan; 11) Daniel Berger / Hideki Matsuyama.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Justin Thomas 22/1; 2016: Spieth 5/1; 2015: Reed 22/1; 2014: Zach Johnson 14/1; 2013: Dustin Johnson 14/1; 2012: Stricker 17/2; 2011: Byrd 50/1; 2010: Ogilvy 9/1;. Average: 18/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Maui is here. A wet December (159mm) will leave the course in a relatively receptive condition. 13mm since Christmas Day is nothing too significant and with no rain forecast throughout tournament week the course will continually dry, especially with wind very much in-play this week. Gusting 20mph+ winds will be a feature throughout the 4 days of play, with Thursday looking to be the most challenging – gusting 25mph. They will be of the Trade variety, making the course play shorter.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the last 8 winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Justin Thomas (-22). 302 yards (3rd), 73.3% fairways (17th), 87.5% greens in regulation (2nd), 32’8″ proximity to hole (3rd), 66.7 % scrambling (12th), 1.68 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2016, Jordan Spieth (-30). 284 yards (17th), 73.3% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (11th), 34’11” proximity to hole (3rd), 83.3 % scrambling (3rd), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2015, Patrick Reed (-21). 282 yards (4th), 66.7% fairways (27th), 80.6% greens in regulation (15th), 44’8″ proximity to hole (25th), 85.7 % scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2014, Zach Johnson (-19). 267 yards (23rd), 83.3% fairways (8th), 77.8% greens in regulation (17th), 35’5″ proximity to hole (3rd), 81.3 % scrambling (2nd), 1.73 putts per GIR (9th).
• 2013, Dustin Johnson (-15). 280 yards (2nd), 51.1% fairways (30th), 88.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 36’6″ proximity to hole (2nd), 50.0% scrambling (18th), 1.75 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2012, Steve Stricker (-23). 268 yards (15th), 66.7% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (13th), 35’8″ proximity to hole (4th), 69.2% scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2011, Jonathan Byrd (-24). 273 yards (21st), 80.0% fairways (11th), 86.1% greens in regulation (10th), 34”11″ proximity to hole (10th), 70.0% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2010, Geoff Ogilvy (-22). 274 yards (19th), 71.7% fairways (16th), 84.7% greens in regulation (12th), 37’10” proximity to hole (10th), 63.6% scrambling (2nd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 13th, Driving Accuracy: 17th, Greens in Regulation: 10th, Proximity to Hole: 8th, Scrambling: 5th, Putting Average 4th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the Plantation course sets up and what skills the course favours:

Justin Thomas: “Today was the hardest for sure. It was a little windier. The greens are getting a little faster. They are still not, I’m sure, up to the pace that they would like with all the rain, but they are starting to get a little firmer, a little faster. The wind just makes it a lot harder to putt. And yesterday was pretty calm. It was about as easy as you could get this golf course. Then Thursday, it was, you know, a normal Kapalua wind, ten to 15. They have been similar but a little different, if that makes sense. Just kind of different versions of a little windy. It’s a course where you can just get so hot. You can realistically, 11 can be a tough hole, and 17 is a tough hole. But other than that, you’ve got a wedge in your hand or you’re looking at a lot of birdie holes and potentially eagle holes. I was just trying to tell myself that even though I made a bad bogey on 7, I hit a good putt on 8, just missed, and then just missed a wood over a 3-footer on 9 to birdie. Could have been 5-under on the front, but still being 2-under, I could still shoot 6-, 7-under on the back and post a low one. That was kind of my mind frame just going through the back nine.“

Jordan Spieth: “Whether it’s a short putt, or long, you just really got to hit it. I played a couple putts today – trickiest reads for me were ones where the entire mountain and grain is going one way, but you’re on the back side – like putts like I had on 17. I had one where that back side of that green’s pitched back the other way. You want to play gravity, but you know there’s an effect from the hill, from the slope and you know there’s an effect from the gradual slope down the mountain and the grain. And each time I try to almost out smart it and play it towards the water and it actually turned back into the hill. So I’ll keep a note of that. But for the most part, if you’re hitting anything from really five feet out into the grain uphill, it is just tough to hit hard enough. Especially in the last group because they get a little spiked up and they’re even slower.”

Patrick Reed: “The golf course fits my eye really well. A lot of the holes, seems like I can work it right-to-left and I’ve worked really hard this off-season on not only working the ball right-to-left but also working it left-to-right, so I can have both shots.“

Zach Johnson: “Well, I guess there was an intimidation factor there just because of the length of it. You know, score card length, and you get a few winds out here where the course does play long. You know, you get the trades, it doesn’t feel like it plays that long. But I was intimidated, not necessarily just because of the yardage, though. Because of the greens. They’re just so hard to putt. I mean they’re big; they’re undulating. A flat putt is pretty slow. The ones down grain are super fast. The ones in the grain are obviously super slow. So the greens are still intimidating. What I’ve grown to know is you’re going to hit good putts and they’re just not going to go in, because there’s so much break. So once I embraced that fact, I think things have kind of settled down a little bit mentally. It’s just hard. Everybody is going to hit it you’re going to hit a lot of fairways, you’re going to hit a lot of greens and you’re going to miss a lot of putts.“

Geoff Ogilvy: “Does it help to hit it long around here? It helps, I think. I don’t think I’m long anymore. I’m long enough. It gives longer hitters room to have at it, you know. There’s a lot of holes here where you just hit it as hard as you can and have a little bit of concern for where it goes but a lot less than normal. So I guess it’s an advantage to hit it long because you can, it’s always an advantage to hit it long. There’s a lot of holes here where it’s probably a super advantage. Like 18 is unreachable for the non-long guys but the long guys, it’s exponential. Every ten yards you hit it, you get an extra 20 yards. But a good wind player and a good putter is going to do the best out here I think.“

Steve Stricker: “Yeah, you have to learn here. It takes a while to learn here. It’s a little bit different than what we are typically used to. There’s big undulating greens, a lot of slope in the fairways. But I think the biggest challenge is the greens and the wind once you get on the greens. The wind can blow and make putting very difficult, and even the roll out in the greens that we typically have, which we are not seeing as much here. So it’s a challenge to hit some of these shots, and you expect that ball to roll out or release a lot, and it’s not now. So that’s a little different, too, and something to get used to. But it’s a course where a lot of local knowledge helps you out a lot and the more times you play here, the better off you are.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 Tournament of Champions winners:

• 2017 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – Patrick Reed: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2014 – Zach Johnson: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 4th.
• 2013 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st.
• 2012 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Jonathan Byrd: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Geoff Ogilvy: Round 1: 11th, Round 2 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.

Incoming form of winners since 2013:

• Justin Thomas: 5th Templeton S/4th Dunlop Phoenix/23rd HSBC/1st CIMB.
• Jordan Spieth: 4th WC/2nd Aus Open/7th HSBC/1st Tour Championship.
• Patrick Reed: 10th Shark Shoot/3rd WC/22nd HSBC/26th CIMB.
• Zach Johnson: 1st WC/16th McGladrey/ 40th Shriners/7th Tour Championship.
• Dustin Johnson: 7th Shark Shoot/13th WC/39th HSBC/47th Dunhill Links.
• Steve Stricker: 4th Shark Shoot/16th WC/15th Tour Championship/WD BMW.
• Jonathan Byrd: 1st Shriners/30th Fry’s.com/66th McGladrey/5th Viking.
• Geoff Ogilvy: 7th Aus PGA/31st Aus Open/4th Dubai/32nd Australian Masters.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Walker – Group 12/16 -8/65 – 25/1
• 2016 – Reed – Group 16/16 -8/65.
• 2015 – Henley – Group 13/17 -8/65.
• 2014 – Kirk (8/15), Simpson, Spieth (both 13/15), Thompson (4/15) -7/66.
• 2013 – D Johnson (7/7), Wilson (4/7), Watney (6/7) -4/69.
• 2012 – Jonathan Byrd – Group 14/14 -6/67.
• 2011 – Byrd (4/17), Pettersson (7/17) -7/66.
• 2010 – Glover – Group 10/14 -7/66.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Dustin Johnson.
• 3 – Jordan Spieth.
• 2 – Daniel Berger, Jason Dufner, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim.
• 1 – Ryan Armour, Jonas Blixt, Wesley Bryan, Austin Cook, Adam Hadwin, Kevin Kisner, Marc Leishman, Grayson Murray, Pat Perez, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Hudson Swafford, Justin Thomas, Jhonattan Vegas.

Kapalua is a course where Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation take something of a back seat. Instead the key to success here is accurate approach play and conversion of scoring chances with the putter. Course conditions for 2018 sees pretty strong Trade wind (easterly to north-easterly) breezes which will make the course play shorter and remain very scoreable. Slow greens here at 10 on the Stimpmeter are the norm as green complex undulations demand receptiveness. I can see circa -20/272 or even slightly lower being the target score required.

8 of the last 9 winners here all played competitive golf in the previous December, be that in Australia or at Tiger’s Hero Challenge and/or the QBE Shoot Out. Working forward from Vijay Singh in 2007, all winners here at Kapalua had shot -19 or lower to win a PGA Tour tournament previously in their career.

My selections are as follows: