Congratulations if you were on-board Matt McCarty last week at the Black Desert Championship. McCarty was available as big as 66/1 with Unibet on Monday first show. Lucas Glover provided a full each-way payout for me which he landed at 35/1 with Boylesports.
This week we move to Las Vegas, Nevada for the 2024 Shriners Hospital’s Open. The PGA Tour has visited Vegas since 1983 and the tournament has had some high-class winners over the years including Tiger Woods (his first Tour victory), Jim Furyk (twice), Kevin Na (twice), Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Sungjae Im and Tom Kim who goes for a three-peat this year. Many of this week’s field in Las Vegas will then jump on a charter flight and head out to play the no-cut ZOZO Championship in Japan next week.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Shriners Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: TPC Summerlin, based in the suburbs of Las Vegas, has been the sole host of this tournament for over 20 years. The 7,255 yard, Par 71 has a 35-36 set-up and the course is designed to produce low scores. Played at altitude, all 3 of the par-5s are reachable for the whole field and the pure Bentgrass green complexes are large, flat and usually receptive.
2016 saw an opening round -11/60 from eventual champion Rod Pampling, plus -10/61 from both Francesco Molinari and Chez Reavie, highlighting that this course can be smashed by those with a sensible approach and a hot putter. Across the past 4 renewals we have also seen Lucas Glover, Kevin Na, Matthew Wolff and Patrick Cantlay shoot -10/61s, highlighting that ball-strikers and short game experts alike can all torch this course.
TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas, Nevada: Designer: Weed & Zoeller, 1991, redesign, 2007, renovation 2018; Course Type: Mid-Score, Altitude, Desert, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,255 yards; Number of Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 4; Number of Sand Bunkers: 92; Acres of Fairway: 32; Fairways: Bandera Bermudagrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass 2.25″; Greens: 7,400 sq.ft average featuring Dominator Bentgrass; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2023: 69.30 (-1.70), Rank 44 of 58 courses
2022: 69.01 (-1.99), Rank 42 of 50 courses
2021: 68.93 (-2.07), Rank 42 of 50 courses
2020: 68.34 (-2.66), Rank 48 of 51 courses
2019: 68.86 (-2.14), Rank 39 of 41 courses
2018: 69.37 (-1.63), Rank 38 of 49 courses
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Summerlin and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Overview: Part of the Tournament Players Club (TPC) Network of golf courses operated by the PGA Tour, Summerlin is a Private Club that’s played regularly by Vegas-based professionals. Doug Ghim, Harry Hall, Charley Hoffman, Kurt Kitayama, David Lipsky, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Montgomery, Ryan Moore, Scott Piercy, Seamus Power and Justin Suh all have residences in the area. Claude and Butch Harmon also have a Las Vegas training centre, hence the entry for Rickie Fowler.
The course itself features 2022 installed Bandera Bermudagrass fairways and 419 Bermudagrass rough with Dominator Bentgrass green complexes. That characteristic is shared with few courses on Tour apart from Colonial. The 2013 renewal saw the introduction of new bunkering on 7, 12, 13 (Par 5) and 18, but despite that Webb Simpson equalled the tournament total score record at -24/260.
The course plays as a 7,255 yard, Par 71 which at above 2,000 feet above sea level can be attacked, however the greens have certain nuances. 2018 saw 92 new bunkers in-play – it’s the same number as before, but many were relocated with fairway bunkers moved into modern day landing areas. Again this work has been put in place to try and force players to be strategic and discourage “bomb and gouge.”
It hasn’t lowered winning totals though with DeChambeau shooting -21/263, Na & Laird -23/261, and Sungjae Im & Tom Kim equalling the tournament total score record of -24/260 over the past 5 years. In summary, you can plot a great score around here.
Half of the challenge with TPC Summerlin is finding the fairway. In a PGA Tour arena where Driving Accuracy means very little most weeks, it’s interesting to note that hitting fairways on this course is of paramount importance when analysing previous winners’ statistics. Undoubtedly missing fairways adds up here as working approach shots so as to get close to pins around Summerlin is not as easy as you would think, plus on a course where birdies are essential, the penalty for missing fairways are par-saving putts rather than birdie opportunities. Miss greens and both Sand Save and Scrambling difficulty here tends to be in the top 10 most difficult on Tour each season.
And that difficulty around the green really poses a problem if the wind does blow here. Take 2017 when Patrick Cantlay won his first PGA Tour title at a very un-TPC Summerlin -9/275 winning score.
TPC Summerlin in effect is a positional golf course, where outright brute force is negated to a neutral type setting. As Kevin Na said in 2020, “Yes, this is a great golf course for me. I think you have to really drive the ball well and keep it in the fairway so you can control the spin. I know the roughs are not deep, but because of these greens and some of the hole locations, you have to hit the fairway to be able to spin the ball. You don’t have to bomb it out here. Anybody can win out here.”
Shriners Open Winners: 2023: Tom Kim (-20); 2022: Tom Kim (-24); 2021: Sungjae Im (-24); 2020: Martin Laird (-23), 2019: Kevin Na (-23); 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21); 2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9); 2016: Rod Pampling (-20); 2015: Smylie Kaufman (-16); 2014: Ben Martin (-20); 2013: Webb Simpson (-24); 2012: Ryan Moore (-24); 2011: Kevin Na (-23); 2010: Jonathan Byrd (-24).
Ryan Moore: 3rd Tour/10th BMW/10th Deutsche/24th Barclays.
Kevin Na: MC Deutsche/MC Barclays/10th PGA/25th Reno.
Jonathan Byrd: 30th Fry’s Open/66th McGladrey/5th Viking/56th Barclays.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Keith Mitchell, Patton Kizzire, Tom Hoge, Daniel Berger, Joel Dahmen, Beau Hossler, Jhonattan Vegas, Tom Kim, Henrik Norlander and Greyson Sigg.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Shriners Open Winning Prices: 2023: T Kim 14/1; 2022: T Kim 25/1; 2021: Im 33/1; 2020: Laird 225/1; 2019: Na 70/1; 2018: DeChambeau 14/1; 2017: Cantlay 20/1; 2016: Pampling 300/1; 2015: Kaufman 250/1; 2014: Martin 225/1; 2013: Simpson 20/1; 2012: Moore 14/1; 2011: Na 60/1; 2010: Byrd 50/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 73/1; Overall Average: 100/1.
Historical Weather:
2023: Thursday: Sunny. High of 73. Wind NNW 12-17 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. The first round was suspended due to darkness at 6:15pm. PT (12 players left on the course). Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 73. Wind ESE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 79. Wind ESE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind ESE 4-8 mph.
2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 92. Wind E 4-8 mph. The first round was suspended due to darkness at 6:29 p.m. PT and with three players left to complete their round. Friday: Sunny. High of 91. Wind E 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind ESE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 89. Wind ESE 4-8 mph.
2021: Thursday: Overcast, with light showers off and on. High of 82. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SE 8-13 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers. High of 81. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with possible showers. High of 82. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
2020: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 95. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 91. Wind SSW 10-20 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind NNE 6-12 mph.
2019: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SSW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind ESE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind NE 6-12 mph.
2018: Thursday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Friday: High of 80. Wind ESE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind N 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind E 5-10 mph.
2017: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 78. Wind S 7-12 mph. Friday: Sunny and cooler, with a high of 71. Wind SSW 15 to 25 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 71. Wind SSW 15-25, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 69. Wind SW 10-20, gusting to 25.
2016: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind NE at 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 78. Wind NNE at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 78. Wind light and variable. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 75. Wind ESE at 4-8 mph.
2015: Thursday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind NE at 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind NE at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 79. NE wind at 4-8 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 78. Wind E at 4-8 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Las Vegas, Nevada is here.
You need plenty of wind here to affect the scoring and if the forecasts are to be believed then Thursday and Friday may just provide just that. Thursday sees a south-westerly gusting +20mph which then changes to north-westerly on Friday with winds at the same +20mph level. The wind then disappears for the weekend.
Low temperatures for the Nevada desert also look set post-Thursday. 16 degrees Celsius (61 Fahrenheit) on Friday and Saturday is not the norm here and that only rises to 18 degrees Celsius (64 Fahrenheit) on Sunday. So I could well see the winning total around the -18/266 mark – 6 strokes higher than Tom Kim’s victory here 2 years ago.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the BMW Championship / Denmark Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Gary Woodland; 2) Davis Thompson; 3) Ryan Palmer; 4) Jhonattan Vegas; 5) Cameron Champ / Alex Smalley; 7) Taylor Moore; 8) K.H. Lee; 9) Taylor Pendrith / Brendon Todd; 11) Kevin Yu; 12) Kevin Dougherty; 13) Will Gordon; 14) Stephan Jaeger; 15) Pierceson Coody; 16) Scott Piercy; 17) Ryan McCormick; 18) Daniel Berger / Joel Dahmen; 20) Ryan Fox / Rico Hoey / Ben Silverman; 23) Chandler Phillips; 24) Bud Cauley; 25) Adam Hadwin / Andrew Novak.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Kurt Kitayama; 2) Cam Davis; 3) J.T. Poston; 4) Austin Eckroat / Tom Hoge; 6) Taylor Pendrith; 7) Ben Kohles; 8) Tom Whitney; 9) Michael Kim; 10) Doug Ghim / Kevin Yu; 12) Joe Highsmith; 13) Nick Hardy / Andrew Novak / Andrew Putnam; 16) Matt Kuchar; 17) Patton Kizzire / Henrik Norlander; 19) Eric Cole; 20) Emiliano Grillo; 21) Callum Tarren; 22) Joseph Bramlett / Beau Hossler / Peter Malnati / Davis Thompson.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Cam Davis; 2) Davis Riley; 3) Brendon Todd; 4) Robby Shelton; 5) Martin Laird / Webb Simpson; 7) Greyson Sigg; 8) Adam Hadwin / Erik van Rooyen; 10) Beau Hossler / Chan Kim / Patton Kizzire; 13) Seamus Power; 14) Taylor Pendrith / Adam Svensson; 16) Camilo Villegas; 17) Trace Crowe / Ben Taylor / Davis Thompson; 20) Joseph Bramlett / Bud Cauley / Ben Griffin / Peter Malnati; 24) Tom Hoge; 25) Stephan Jaeger.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Kurt Kitayama; 2) Cam Davis; 3) Gary Woodland; 4) Andrew Putnam; 5) Beau Hossler; 6) Doug Ghim; 7) Tom Hoge; 8) Joseph Bramlett / Taylor Pendrith / Webb Simpson; 11) Seamus Power; 12) Patton Kizzire / Kevin Yu; 14) Joe Highsmith; 15) Henrik Norlander / Andrew Novak; 17) Greyson Sigg; 18) Charley Hoffman / Davis Thompson; 20) J.T. Poston / Adam Svensson; 22) Joel Dahmen; 23) Rickie Fowler / Alex Smalley / Tom Whitney.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Ben Silverman; 2) Kevin Yu; 3) Taylor Pendrith; 4) Davis Riley; 5) Emiliano Grillo; 6) Stephan Jaeger; 7) Taylor Moore; 8) Rickie Fowler; 9) Cam Davis / Tom Hoge / Justin Lower; 12) Adam Hadwin / Michael Thorbjornsen; 14) Harry Hall / Taylor Montgomery / Sami Valimaki; 17) Patton Kizzire; 18) David Lipsky; 19) Jacob Bridgeman / Jhonattan Vegas; 21) Vincent Whaley; 22) J.T. Poston; 23) Wilson Furr / Chris Gotterup / Sam Stevens.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Kevin Yu; 2) Cam Davis / Ben Silverman; 4) Emiliano Grillo / Taylor Pendrith; 6) Rickie Fowler / Seamus Power; 8) Tom Hoge; 9) Patton Kizzire; 10) Stephan Jaeger; 11) Ben Griffin; 12) Kurt Kitayama / Michael Thorbjornsen; 14) Joe Highsmith / Charley Hoffman / Beau Hossler; 17) Jhonattan Vegas; 18) Matti Schmid / Greyson Sigg; 20) Justin Lower; 21) Nick Hardy; 22) Webb Simpson; 23) Doug Ghim / Chan Kim / Henrik Norlander / J.T. Poston / Andrew Putnam.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Summerlin click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Shriners Open winners here at TPC Summerlin since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this Par 71:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2023, Tom Kim (-20). SG Off the Tee: 39th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 58th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 4th.
2022, Tom Kim (-24). SG Off the Tee: 32nd, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 1st.
2021, Sungjae Im (-24). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 9th.
2020, Martin Laird (-23). SG Off the Tee: 27th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 15th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 20th.
2019, Kevin Na (-23). SG Off the Tee: 54th, SG Approach: 35th, SG Around the Green: 54th, SG Tee to Green: 55th, SG Putting: 1st.
2018, Bryson DeChambeau (-21). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 45th.
2017, Patrick Cantlay (-9). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 22nd, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 32nd.
2016, Rod Pampling (-20). SG Off the Tee: 32nd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 39th.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 25th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 26th, SG Tee to Green: 10th, SG Putting: 19th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2023, Tom Kim (-20). 314 yards (49th), 71.4% fairways (5th), 75.0% greens in regulation (40th), 34’1″ proximity to hole (10th), 66.7 % scrambling (9th), 1.63 putts per GIR (6th).
2022, Tom Kim (-24). 298 yards (70th), 73.2% fairways (14th), 87.5% greens in regulation (3rd), 34’8″ proximity to hole (26th), 100.0% scrambling (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (12th).
2021, Sungjae Im (-24). 316 yards (26th), 73.2% fairways (19th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 35’2″ proximity to hole (15th), 90.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (10th).
2020, Martin Laird (-23). 323 yards (15th), 78.6% fairways (5th), 80.6% greens in regulation (15th), 33″9″ proximity to hole (20th), 64.3 % scrambling (28th), 1.66 putts per GIR (10th).
2019, Kevin Na (-23). 316 yards (28th), 71.4% fairways (25th), 75.0% greens in regulation (46th), 38″5″ proximity to hole (59th), 72.2 % scrambling (11th), 1.50 putts per GIR (1st).
2018, Bryson DeChambeau (-21). 313 yards (30th), 78.6% fairways (4th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 32″2″ proximity to hole (9th), 75.0 % scrambling (3rd), 1.67 putts per GIR (13th).
2017, Patrick Cantlay (-9). 324 yards (13th), 64.3% fairways (5th), 72.2% greens in regulation (17th), 43″7″ proximity to hole (56th), 55.0 % scrambling (39th), 1.71 putts per GIR (9th).
2016, Rod Pampling (-20). 308 yards (38th), 60.7% fairways (15th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (34th), 68.8 % scrambling (13th), 1.68 putts per GIR (17th).
2015, Smylie Kaufman (-16). 328 yards (5th), 64.3% fairways (7th), 76.4% greens in regulation (13th), 36″11″ proximity to hole (51st), 52.9 % scrambling (49th), 1.60 putts per GIR (3rd).
2014, Ben Martin (-20). 296 yards (64th), 64.3% fairways (18th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 34″3″ proximity to hole (21st), 30.8 % scrambling (71st), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
2013, Webb Simpson (-24). 300 yards (55th), 64.3% fairways (13th), 86.1% greens in regulation (4th), 31″1″ proximity to hole (4th), 62.5% scrambling (10th), 1.65 putts per GIR (5th).
2012, Ryan Moore (-24). 313 yards (22nd), 66.1% fairways (10th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 33″1″ proximity to hole (14th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.57 putts per GIR (1st).
2011, Kevin Na (-23). 314 yards (17th), 66.1% fairways (12th), 75.0% greens in regulation (40th), 40″7″ proximity to hole (67th), 77.8% scrambling (5th), 1.61 putts per GIR (5th).
2010, Jonathan Byrd (-24). 307 yards (12th), 78.6% fairways (3rd), 84.7% greens in regulation (12th), 31″11″ proximity to hole (18th), 63.6% scrambling (15th), 1.69 putts per GIR (10th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 32nd, Driving Accuracy: 11th, Greens in Regulation: 15th, Proximity to Hole: 29th, Scrambling: 19th, Putting Average 7th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Summerlin has set-up in the past and what specific skills it requires:
Tom Kim (2023): “I think today obviously you see a lot of low scores, but it’s just because the greens were a lot softer. They were really firm the first two days, and I think today they were definitely a lot more gettable, and I think that’s why the scores were so low. But we’ll see how it goes tomorrow. Obviously the greens might firm up, the greens might be softer, and I really feel like you can’t — because it’s such a packed leaderboard, you can’t really try to feel like you’ve got to make more birdies. You’ve got to play your own game, and if birdies go, great, but if it doesn’t, it doesn’t. You’ve got to stick to the game plan, and that happened what I’m going to try to do.
My second shot on 9 was a 4-iron. It was actually 227 cover. We were trying to hit this 230. It was 242 hole maybe, somewhere around there. Obviously that green is firm. I was trying to tell Joe, I should just try to hit the shorter club and hit it harder so it can come out higher, but it was like, this is the only club that has a chance. I hit a 4-iron, obviously I was aiming a little left of where it landed but kind of gave myself room if it did that, and it hit in the perfect spot, almost came close to my first albatross, but wasn’t to be. Still got to keep waiting.”
Tom Kim (2022): “I think it’s a great golf course for me. It’s a great setup. I really like the way it’s designed and it kind of suits my eye a little bit. I’m really excited to be here. I was actually here last year in Vegas. I didn’t play this event, but I was here during that week, and I remember I wanted to play, and I’m excited to finally be able to play here this week.
In terms of learning, I feel like just with distance control a little bit I can always learn. Like sometimes you might get some firm bounces, and you might get some soft bounces. So just kind of managing that and kind of knowing what clubs are going to release a little bit, what clubs are going to spin.
I think getting used to it, yes, that’s one, but also the pins were very gettable today. There were some pins where you kind of need to be just a little bit disciplined with it, but if you had good numbers you could take some pins on. I think for me, as well, I had a few good numbers and I had a few good pins I could go at, so a few good birdies there. That’s why I had a good round.”
Matthew Wolff (2021): “I feel like I really like this course. I like the way it sets up.I didn’t know that I shot every round in the 60s here, but I think knowing, just being here, feeling good, being comfortable with the lines off the tee, the breaks on the greens, and I feel like I’m definitely starting to come into my own too. It’s only my third year out here or maybe even, no it’s my third year, I think. But there’s guys out here who have played this course for 10, 15 years, and I think I’m finally starting to remember breaks on greens, oh, this one last year didn’t break as much, and that’s starting to help me out a little bit. So the experience definitely helps.”
Martin Laird (2020):”Yeah, I feel like it’s definitely a course that some local knowledge, you know the greens are tricky sometimes with the way they break. I kind of know where to hit it around here and know the holes you judge just play a little more conservative and the holes you can play aggressive. I needed an exemption to get into this week. I wasn’t in this week after having surgery last year, so I was appreciative that he gave me a spot. I came here wanting to show my appreciation, and obviously the way I’ve played first two rounds I’m very happy.
Really happy, hit the ball nicely; got the ball in the fairway a lot, which is what you got to do around here. If you get it if the fairway you can be aggressive. All around solid round all aspects. I have had good rounds every day, so I’m not going to change anything. More of the same. Pick my spots, be aggressive when you’ve got a wedge in your hand to the fairway, and some other holes just the middle of the green is never a bad place.”
Kevin Na (2019): “Yes, this is a great golf course for me. I think you have to really drive the ball well and keep it in the fairway so you can control the spin. I know the roughs are not deep, but because of these greens and some of the hole locations, you have to hit the fairway to be able to spin the ball. You don’t have to bomb it out here. Anybody can win out here. You definitely have to make some putts. You know, the scores are going to be low. The greens are getting firmer, and that’s the only protection they’ve got. The winds are supposed to be light again. I know the course can play difficult if it’s windy, but it’s not going to be windy, so I think I’ve just got to keep making birdies.
Yeah, I mean, I feel like I’m a pretty good putter. I’m a player that I feel like I get better as I get closer to the greens. That’s a strength of my game, a part of my game that gets stronger.”
Bryson DeChambeau (2018): “Yeah, I like the golf course. Suits my eye really well. When I do mis-hit it I can mis-hit it in the right spots and I’m able to get up and down. When I can attack flags and make some putts it’s good combo out here for me. I feel good out here.You know, honestly, they told me I hit 14 fairways after today and I was surprised. Really? I had 14? It was kind of like a smooth, easy day and executed it really well off the tee and was able to keep it in the fairway on every hole; that allowed me the opportunity to hit it pretty close on almost every hole. Unfortunately a couple mishaps on my wedges. Other than that, it was a pretty solid day. When I hit it close I was able to make it.
I love the golf course. It’s dry air. It’s kind of what I grew up. Fresno, California is not really humid. Kind of the same vibe and feel and conditions. There is a little elevation; that’s just a change. But I love this time of environment. Heat is always good for me.”
Patrick Cantlay (2017): “Well, it was really two different days out there. It was really like the first 14 holes, and then the last four holes. The first 14 holes was a shootout. For me, it felt like every time I wasn’t making a birdie I was losing ground. Then the last four, with the wind kicking up, I mean, that wind in and off the left on 18 makes that hole particularly difficult, and I was just trying to hit quality shots all the way to the end. The finish did not happen how I thought it would, but it was just enough.”
Rod Pampling (2016): “No, this is a good golf course for the shorter hitters. Would it be nice to hit it long? Absolutely. But you don’t need to. You know, it’s just a good course for that. You don’t have to be the bomber to do it all. Playing with Brooks today, he hits it a long way, but he was hitting a lot of irons off the tee, so it’s still a positional golf course, and that’s what you need to do is position yourself properly and give yourself the chances.”
Kevin Na (2015): “Yeah, I think this is the toughest condition I’ve ever seen out here. The greens are drying out. They’re getting firm. You see a little bit of purple in it. I thought it would be playing easy. I was surprised that it was playing difficult. This is the most difficult I’ve seen it. Wednesday playing the pro-am in the morning the greens were really soft, and overnight it just firmed up. I think a little bit of breeze helped. I think they cut the water off, and they’ve done a good job.”
Webb Simpson (2013): “I love this golf course because it reminds me of the course I grew up playing. You have a lot of options off the tee and greens are undulating and fast. So I’m just comfortable here, comfortable playing this kind of golf. The main thing is I made a lot of putts and you’ve got to do that this week. There’s three par 5s, all reachable, and a reachable par 4. So you have to take advantage of the short holes and make putts.”
Ryan Moore (2012): “On a golf course like this and playing in these conditions it is right now: no wind and perfect temperature, greens are reasonably soft and rolling nice on top of that. So it’s one of those days that you just keep putting it in play. You know you’re going to have a bunch of pitching wedges, 9-irons, 8-irons into these greens, and a few shorter irons, too. I know I’m going to hit the wedge and 9-iron. I’m going to have enough pretty darn good birdie chances if I’m just in the fairway. I’m not spectacular out of the rough. It’s one of those courses. It’s certainly not impossible if you haven’t played it, but there are little quirks and subtleties to the greens. The more and more you play you get the sense of it.”
Kevin Na (2011): “First of all, you know the golf course very well because guys come out here and practice and you know the greens. I think the big key is distance control here because the ball goes further out here. Some of the guys have trouble adjusting to that. But if you live out here you know how far your ball is flying, so it’s easier to club yourself with the irons. That’s a big edge on everybody else in the field. If I was honest put my money on the guys, if you gave me a handful of guys to pick, I would pick all the local guys.”
Jonathan Byrd (2010): “I think guys play well when they hit the ball in the fairway. And I think this year the tournament being a little sooner, I think we’ll have more rough, and I think that’s going to make the course play more difficult. So I don’t think this golf course is easy. I think there’s a lot of opportunities, but I don’t think it’s easy. If you’re not sharp by hitting the ball in the fairway, I think this course can be very difficult. And you’ll see guys making a lot of birdies, and it’s hard to make birdies if you’re not in the fairway. So you have to place them, be strategic and you have to drive the ball well.”
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Webb Simpson.
3 – Matt Kuchar, Francesco Molinari, Ryan Moore, Jhonattan Vegas.
2 – Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt.
1 – Aaron Baddeley, Daniel Berger, Cameron Champ, Emiliano Grillo, Harry Hall, Lee Hodges, Charley Hoffman, Michael Kim, Kevin Kisner, Matt McCarty, Trey Mullinax, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Davis Thompson, Brendon Todd, Danny Willett.
Course experience here certainly isn’t the be-all and end-all. George McNeill (2007), Marc Turnesa (2008), Smylie Kaufman (2015), Patrick Cantlay (2018) and Tom Kim (2022) all won this tournament on debut across the past 16 renewals. Indeed, since 2011, Tommy Gainey (3rd), Jonas Blixt (3rd), Ryo Ishikawa (2nd), Luke Guthrie (5th), Chesson Hadley (5th), Patton Kizzire (2nd), Brett Stegmaier (2nd), Francesco Molinari (4th), Beau Hossler (7th), Will Zalatoris (5th), Hayden Buckley (8th) Harry Hall (8th), SH Kim (4th) and Isaiah Salinda (9th) have all finished in the each-way places on course debut.
Other trends are difficult to highlight. Winners across 2011 to 2014 from an Official Golf World Ranking perspective ranked 88th (Martin), 20th (Simpson), 44th (Moore) and 76th (Na) in the OWGR. Remember a place in the top 50 by close of the year is a really huge deal, especially for those players who didn’t qualify for the Tour Championship. 2015/16 saw Smylie Kaufman at 226th and Rod Pampling at 451st in the OWGR come from left-field, but 2017 again saw a motivated and classy sort in Patrick Cantlay win his first PGA Tour event here. He was 69th in the OWGR, up an amazing 1355 spots across the calendar year. 2018 saw Bryson DeChambeau capture his 4th win in 12 tournament appearances following on from the Memorial Tournament, Northern Trust and Dell Technologies Championship triumphs, as he captured this at 14/1 on his first appearance of the new season. He had made 2 appearances at TPC Summerlin with a best finish of 7th.
In 2019 we went back to the OWGR angle with Kevin Na. Kevin was ranked 40th when winning this. He’d already won in 2019 at Colonial, securing passage to The Masters and the Tournament of Champions, but had missed out on the Tour Championship, so remaining in the World’s top 50 was important as it secured Major and WGC spots for the following year. 2020 saw another big price left-field winner in the form of Martin Laird who was 351st in the OWGR arriving in Las Vegas. A past Shriners Open champion (2009), Martin had also finished 2nd (2010) when defending and had contended in 2014, 2018 and 2019 before falling back over the weekend. A desert golf specialist, he had finished 28th the week before in Mississippi, his best result since returning from a knee injury 4 tournament appearances earlier.
2021, 2022 and 2023 has seen 2 elite South Koreans dominate here at TPC Summerlin. Sungjae Im picked up only his 2nd PGA Tour title here in 2021. He had qualified for the Tour Championship, but took the opportunity to end an 18 month winless drought at a course where from 2 previous appearances he had finished in the top 15 both times. In 2022 we were on-board Tom Kim at 22/1. Tom had won the Wyndham Championship in August to gain full PGA Tour status. From there he made it to the BMW Championship, falling just short of the Tour Championship. 2 points at the Quail Hollow-hosted President’s Cup had also highlighted that Kim was a real talent prior to arriving in Las Vegas.
Last year saw Tom Kim successfully defend his Shriners title as the 14/1 favourite. A Tour Championship qualifier, Tom then travelled to Europe finishing 18th at the BMW PGA Championship and 6th at the Open de France, prior to winning by a shot from Adam Hadwin. Kim became the first person to defend the title since Jim Furyk in 1998/99. Sungjae (29th) and Tom (21st & 16th) were both inside the OWGR top 30 when triumphing.
My Final Shriners Open Tips Are As Follows:
Taylor Pendrith 2pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
If we’re going down the route of players who have recently performed best at the highest levels of golf then Taylor Pendrith wins the 2024 Shriners Open. 22nd and 13th at the St Jude and BMW Championship FedEx Cup Playoff events, Pendrith was then 8th for 72 hole scoring at the Tour Championship – he finished 14th in the final FedEx Cup rankings. The only other player in this field to make the Tour Championship was Tom Hoge who finished dead last.
2 wins at the Presidents Cup over Sahith Theegala and Collin Morikawa (Morikawa’s only loss), plus Brian Harman and Max Homa when paired with Adam Scott, should only have boosted Taylor’s confidence even higher heading into this week.
Progressive TPC Summerlin form of 47th (2021), 44th (2022) and 3rd (2023), with his performances over the past 2 outings seeing him rank 2nd and 7th for Ball Striking, 5th and 11th for Total Accuracy, plus 7th for Tee to Green last year.
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Davis Thompson 2pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Davis Thompson is a talented sort to get behind this week. Ranking in the top 10 across our Shriners Open Strokes Gained Rankings, across his 2 visits here Davis has finished 12th (2022) and 35th (2023). 5 rounds from 8 of 67 or better highlights a player who clearly likes TPC Summerlin and he makes his first Fall Series outing this week.
The Georgia-based 25 year-old has had a great 2024, claiming his first ever Major Championship top 10 (9th at the U.S. Open), winning the John Deere Classic to land his maiden PGA Tour victory, and making the top 50 of the FedEx Cup standings, ensuring he plays all of the 2025 Signature events. Ranking 8th for Scoring Average on the PGA Tour in 2024 highlights a precocious talent, ready to blossom.
Plus on the quiet he’s becoming a bit of a specialist finishing 15-21-15 across his last 3 visits to the desert in Arizona, Mexico and California. He also finished 6th on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 at TPC Colorado.
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Cam Davis 2pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Cam Davis may feel he has a little to prove this week. The 8th placed qualifier for the International Team for the President’s Cup, Mike Weir snubbed him for 5 lower ranked players. I found the decision strange especially as Australian Davis won the Rocket Mortgage Classic in June claiming a PGA Tour victory that only Hideki Matsuyama and Taylor Pendrith of his International Team peers had done in 2024. He also finished 5th at the BMW Championship in the FedEx Cup Playoffs in a field of the top 50 players in the world.
So a trip to Las Vegas and a TPC Summerlin course where he has 5 pay cheques from 5 starts could be just the ticket. 6th and 13th through 36 and 54 holes respectively here in 2022 when a poor Sunday relegated him to 37th, last year saw Davis finish 7th with rounds of 67-67-67-66.
3rd at the 2021 American Express makes correlating form sense at PGA West, and I’ve always had Cam down as a player who goes best on shorter courses where he can club down with his power off the tee. His 2 wins (2021 and 2024) at the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club have also come at -18/270, the kind of score I think will be required this week in colder, windier conditions.
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Daniel Berger 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
If I’m looking for a player who is well out of position in the FedEx Fall Series List, Daniel Berger is in need of a strong result. At 126th in the standings and with his PGA Tour exemption from his last win, the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, about to expire after the RSM Classic in November, Daniel will lose his full playing privileges. For a guy who has been as high as 12th in the Official World Golf Rankings, a Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup winner, plus a 4 time PGA Tour winner who is approaching $30 million of winnings across his career, it’s a pretty big deal.
But there are undoubted signs of improvement as the finish line hones into view. Opening 65s across Thursday and Friday at the Sanderson Farms Championship saw Berger in 2nd place heading into the weekend – the first time he’d been so high on a leaderboard since the 2022 Honda Classic. An eventual 7th place finish in Jackson was his first top 10 since the 2022 Memorial Tournament. 35th at last week’s Black Desert Championship again included back-to-back 65s. It was also a great effort after Berger found himself +3 after his first 8 holes on Thursday around a course which garnered a -11/60 on the same day.
However for me, Daniel Berger has always been the sort who goes better on a shorter, tighter golf course and with mid- to high-teens the likely score needed for a contending performance this week, I fancy Berger who finished 18th here last time he played TPC Summerlin in 2019 to go well. Daniel has ranked positive across all Strokes Gained categories across both the Sanderson and Black Desert Championships.
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