The top of the market holds little appeal to me this week with favourite Andy Sullivan clearly playing some good golf but yet to register a top-5 finish in 2018. Thorbjorn Olesen continues to produce inconsistent results and doesn’t excite at around 16/1, despite having some tangible form on the Verdura complex from 2012. You could make a tentative case about a few of the players in the 33/1 to 40/1 bracket, however for me the value lies a little further down the field.

Last week’s defence of his GolfSixes title for Lucas Bjerregaard alongside compatriot Thorbjorn Olesen fell at the first hurdle, however such is the quirky and largely irrelevant format of that event that far more credence should be placed in his flying finish at the China Open the prior week which broke a dismal run of form in 2018. The big Dane became a father for the first time in December and a string of results reading MC/69/61/MC/MC/MC/MC followed to suggest that the form he’d shown at that the latter end of 2017 – which had culminated in an impressive first European Tour strokeplay title at the Portugal Masters – had well and truly disappeared as he’d understandably focussed on family affairs. A 66/64 weekend in China – which was the best performance on show and beat the field average by over 9.5 strokes – ended that run and I suspect we may well see a continuation of that on an exposed course that should play to his strengths on debut.

Despite the inclusion of Marcus Fraser on last year’s final leaderboard, power from off the tee looks to be a decent asset here on the Sicilian coast and at 308 yards average for the full season last year, which ranked him in 8th position overall, we know that Lucas can put the ball out there. When he’s playing well we tend to see extremely strong GIR numbers and a return to the 80% bracket in China certainly bodes well, however to contend here this week he’s going to need to find a similar week on the greens to that which he produced when breaking his European Tour duck in Portugal where he produced a 1.61 putting average. The good news is that the green composition is very similar here to that track in Vilamoura, as is the overall style and length of the course as it’s another par 71 measuring a little over 7,100 yards. Last year’s winner here at Verdura, Alvaro Quiros, is also a former Portugal Masters champion at the Victoria course and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see that course form link franked here this week. RESULT: 5th

Of the Italian challenge, the player who appeals most to me is Nino Bertasio who’s another player who can give the ball a healthy whack from off the tee. A cursory look at his Sicilian Open results will undoubtedly put some punters off – 3 missed cuts from 3 attempts hardly screams that he should be backed here – however it’s worth considering that only last year’s event was played on this current course configuration. 4-under after 2 rounds last year to miss the cut by a single stroke doesn’t tell the whole story either as the 29 year-old produced a bogey-free round of 64 on the Friday after opening with a poor effort of 74 and I’d expect the Brescia man to push on from that effort considerably this time around.

Aside from his length from off the tee (307 yards average year-to-date), Nino is also a strong putter – particularly on bentgrass greens – ranking 20th for putting average for the 2018 season. 5th at the Maybank Championship where he held the 36-hole lead and an opening round of 65 on his last start in China are tangible recent performances, however there’s plenty more to like from last season with top-15 finishes at the BMW PGA Championship, Lyoness Open, Portgual Masters (where he held the 36-hole lead), Dunhill Links, Italian Open and Andalucia Masters to suggest he’s a versatile player who’s capable of contending on a variety of tracks. His last 6 events have produced form of MC/MC/MC/34/59/32, however that’s kept a lid on his price here this week and he has a better chance than that in my view. RESULT: T70

Nobody struck the ball better here at Verdura 12 months ago than Mikko Korhonen and despite remaining winless as a professional from over 250 starts, a small event like this isn’t out of his grasp in my view for him to finally grab some silverware. 11th overall in this event last year was fuelled by impressive stats including 2nd for Total Driving, 4th for Driving Accuracy, 6th for GIR, 1st for Ball-Striking and 8th for Scrambling and save for a better week on the greens the Finn could have been celebrating a long overdue success. 2nd at both the Lyoness Open and Tshwane Open in 2017 rank as Korhonen’s career-best performances and clearly at the age of 37 he’s still improving. 3rd at this season’s Tshwane Open featured his first sub-1.7 putting performance of the year and there were signs of life once again on his last start in Morocco where he produced the joint-best round on Friday before drifting to 41st over the weekend. Without being the longest off the tee, Mikko can still put the ball out there when required – he average 326 yards off the tee here last year which was 2nd in the field – and if there is indeed a tangible link to the Portgual Masters for this event then it’s interesting to note that he finished 3rd to Padraig Harrington at Vilamoura in 2016. RESULT: T26

In terms of raw credentials, Lucas Herbert has exactly what I’m looking for here ranking 15th on the European Tour for Driving Distance for the season to date and prior to his most recent missed cut in China, he also ranked 11th on Tour for putting average. I backed the Australian on that last start at a 3-figure price in the hope that he’d turn around his form and find the game that produced 5 top-8 finishes in 6 global starts previously – although it wasn’t to be, I’m willing to give him one last chance here this week. That was the 22 year-old’s first start for 6 weeks and he was entitled to be a little rusty, however he was quick to go to twitter having seemingly ironed out his issues on the range afterwards, with his coach stating that his swing was ‘the best he’d seen it’. Interesting comments and for a player who finished 7th at the Australian PGA Championship and impressed so much at the World Super 6 in Perth when ultimately finishing 3rd having ranked in 2nd place after the strokeplay element, I think he’s worth another shot here. RESULT: T3