Sony Open In Hawaii Tips 2025

 

Congratulations to you if you were on Hideki Matsuyama at the Monday opening price of 20/1 at The Sentry. Hideki became the seventh player to date to have won both The Sentry and the Sony Open in Hawaii. It wasn’t a total write-off for me with Sungjae Im playing very nicely in 3rd spot giving me a full each-way return back at 16/1, but come Sunday he was never in the race in terms of victory.

We move forward to the Sony Open in Hawaii which is the traditional first full-field tournament of the calendar year and for the 2025 PGA Tour season. Waialae Country Club hosts the Sony, which has had full PGA Tour status since 1965. This Par 70 offers up an ‘old school’ type test where obvious winners along with shocks occur in equal measure. Indeed the last 9 renewals highlight this perfectly, with Grayson Murray at 400/1, Si Woo Kim at 45/1, Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1, Kevin Na at 80/1, Cameron Smith at 55/1, Matt Kuchar at 40/1, Patton Kizzire at 80/1, Justin Thomas at 14/1 and Fabian Gomez at 100/1.

 2025 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Sony Open in Hawaii, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: Waialae Country Club has changed in recent years from a tight, technical track by the coast to a course where low scoring is more than achievable if the wind allows.

The 1927 Seth Raynor-designed property used to be the domain of the short, accurate hitter, but in recent renewals longer hitters such as Ryan Palmer (2010), Jimmy Walker (2014 and 2015), Justin Thomas (2017) and Grayson Murray (2024) have won in Honolulu where accurate driving has become immaterial despite the players making out that it is.

This is a real Jekyll and Hyde course where the winning score has varied from -11/269 (2020) to a resort-level -27/253 (2017) dependant upon rough length (short 2″ is the norm), speed of the course and – naturally in Hawaii – the strength of the wind. 2025 looks similar to last year so a winning total in the teens under par is likely.

Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii: Designer: Raynor, 1927 with Tom Doak restoration 2017/18; Course Type: Coastal, Mid-Score Scoring, Short; Par: 70; Length: 7,044 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 5; Number of Bunkers: 83; Acres of Fairway: 50; Fairways Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass, 3″; Greens: 7,100 sq.ft TifDwarf Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 11ft.

Designer Links: For research purposes other Raynor input designs include:

• Old White TPC – Greenbrier Classic.

Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

• 2024: 68.82 (-1.18), Rank 27 of 51 courses
• 2023: 68.87 (-1.13), Rank 34 of 49 courses
• 2022: 68.00 (-2.00), Rank 41 of 50 courses
• 2021: 67.98 (-2.02), Rank 45 of 51 courses

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Waialae Country Club and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
• El Cardonal: Average 60 yards up to 70 yards wide.
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
• Black Desert: Average 30 yards up to 70-100 yards wide.
• CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.

Course Overview: The scoring at Waialae, as per Kapalua last week, is always shaped by the level of wind, depth of rough and the speed of the greens.

-17/263 was the winning score last year, mainly driven by +30 mph (Thursday) and +20mph (Friday + Saturday) winds. -18/262 was the winning score in 2023, mainly driven by thicker rough and greens that were slightly firmer than the previous year. Softer conditions and a breeze no higher than 16 mph across the 4 days saw a -23/257 winning total required in 2022, similar to -21/259 in 2021. This place can bite though: 2020 saw plenty of wind with 35-40mph easterly trade winds on Thursday/Friday which dropped slightly to 20-25 mph over the weekend. The result was Cameron Smith winning at -11/269 which was the highest winning score of the Sony Open since Vijay Singh in 2005.

One thing to note with Waialae is a trend of new green complexes across the property. Holes 1, 11 and 13 were re-modelled in 2017 with overhauls of the greens on the par-4 6th hole, par-3 17th and par-5 18th in 2018. In tranquil conditions Waialae Country Club is a pretty straightforward 7,044 yard Par 70 – it was the fourth easiest Par 70 on Tour last year.

It’s a flat design with generous enough fairways and fairly small green complexes which can yield plenty of birdies as long as you’re consistently hitting greens. It’s a traditional Par 70 format which features a couple of par-5s, both of which are reachable.

Waialae is one of the more difficult tests for driving accuracy, with fairways which traditionally run very fast seeing drives run through into light Bermuda rough. The view from players that getting close to the pin from off the fairway is difficult is backed up by the fact that Waialae is traditionally in the top 20 most difficult courses in terms of Rough Proximity. However the need for driving accuracy has been significantly negated in recent years as lower rough height has played into the hands of the longer hitters or just the wayward. Accuracy no longer appears to be a pre-requisite for victory. Fact is that hitting masses of fairways is not a pre-requisite to winning the tournament as long as you can consistently hit excellent approach shots.

The key to success is fairly simple. Approach shots from 125-200 yards are key making up 70% of approaches. Waialae over recent renewals has been the easiest course for par-5 Birdie or Better Conversion – indeed the par-5 holes last year yielded 63 eagles and an incredible 520 birdies across both the 9th and 18th.

Allied to this, it’s clear that SG Approach and SG Tee to Green are the key factors when it comes to winning around Waialae. It’s undoubtedly a second shot golf course, which is ultimately won with a progressive, not necessarily red hot putter. Green complexes are pretty flat, but many a player finds the TifDwarf Bermudagrass difficult to putt on. So look for players who are confident with the putter on Bermudagrass and who can convert birdie chances.

Sony Open Winners: 2024: Grayson Murray (-17); 2023: Si Woo Kim (-18); 2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23); 2021: Kevin Na (-21); 2020: Cameron Smith (-11); 2019: Matt Kuchar (-22); 2018: Patton Kizzire (-17); 2017: Justin Thomas (-27); 2016: Fabian Gomez (-20); 2015: Jimmy Walker (-23); 2014: Jimmy Walker (-17); 2013: Russell Henley (-24); 2012: Johnson Wagner (-13); 2011: Mark Wilson (-16); 2010: Ryan Palmer (-15).

• 2024: Grayson Murray 69-63-64-67 -17/263 AM/PM Wave
• 2023: Si Woo Kim 67-67-64-64 -18/262 AM/PM Wave
• 2022: Hideki Matsuyama 66-65-63-63 -23/257 AM/PM Wave
• 2021: Kevin Na 67-66-61-65 -21/259 AM/PM Wave
• 2020: Cameron Smith 70-65-66-68 -11/269 PM/AM Wave
• 2019: Matt Kuchar 63-63-66-66 -22/258 PM/AM Wave

OWGR of Sony Open Winners: 2024: Murray 132; 2023: Si Woo Kim 84; 2022: Matsuyama 19; 2021: Na 38; 2020: Smith 54; 2019: Kuchar 32; 2018: Kizzire 105; 2017: Thomas 12.

Cut Line: 2024: -2; 2023: -2; 2022: -5; 2021: -4; 2020: +1; 2019: -2.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2024: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -17.
• 2023: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -18.
• 2022: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -15; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -23.
• 2021: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -21.
• 2020: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -6; Round 3 -12; Round 4 -11.
• 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -22.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for Sony winners:

• 2024 – Grayson Murray: Round 1: 47th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2023 – Si Woo Kim: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2: 16th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2022 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 24th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2021 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 40th, Round 2: 19th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2020 – Cameron Smith: Round 1: 31st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2019 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2018 – Patton Kizzire: Round 1: 20th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2017 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Fabian Gomez: Round 1: 68th, Round 2: 16th, Round 3: 5th.
• 2015 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 12th, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2013 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Johnson Wagner: Round 1: 30th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2011 – Mark Wilson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Ryan Palmer: Round 1: 1st, Round 2 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are Sony winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:

• 2024 – Grayson Murray: Round 1: 7 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
• 2023 – Si Woo Kim: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2022 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2021 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2020 – Cameron Smith: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2019 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2018 – Patton Kizzire: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2017 – Justin Thomas: Round 1: 3 ahead, Round 2: 5 ahead, Round 3: 7 ahead.
• 2016 – Fabian Gomez: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2015 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2014 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2013 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3:  level.
• 2012 – Johnson Wagner: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2011 – Mark Wilson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2010 – Ryan Palmer: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: level.

Incoming form of Sony winners since 2010:

• Grayson Murray: MC RSM/WD Nationwide Childrens/1st Simmons Bank/26th Boise.
• Si Woo Kim: 35th Houston/52nd CJ Cup/45th ZOZO/8th Shriners.
• Hideki Matsuyama: 13th ToC/1st ZOZO/59th CJ Cup/67th Shriners.
• Kevin Na: 38th ToC/2nd Shark Shoot/13th Masters/28th ZOZO.
• Cameron Smith: 10th Aus PGA/27th Aus Open/60th HSBC/3rd CJ Cup.
• Matt Kuchar: 19th ToC/23rd Aus Open/1st Mayakoba/57th Shriners.
• Patton Kizzire: 15th ToC/45th RSM/1st Mayakoba/4th Shriners.
• Justin Thomas: 1st ToC/5th Shark Shoot/4th Dunlop Phoenix/23rd HSBC/1st CIMB.
• Fabian Gomez: 6th ToC/44th RSM/1st Personal Classic/MC Argentine Open.
• Jimmy Walker: 2nd ToC/9th Shark Shoot/15th World Challenge/35th HSBC.
• Jimmy Walker: 21st ToC/44th HSBC/6th CIMB/12th Shriners/1st Fry’s.com.
• Russell Henley: 25th Callaway Inv/6th web.com/1st Jacksonville/ 3rd Miccosukee.
• Johnson Wagner: 9th ToC/MC Disney/44th McGladrey/MC Dunhill Links.
• Mark Wilson: 6th Disney/22nd Shriners/MC Fry’s.com/33rd McGladrey.
• Ryan Palmer: 40th Disney/48th Fry’s.com/MC Shriners/MC PGA.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Hoge, Russell Henley, Maverick McNealy, Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Keith Mitchell and Cam Davis.

Our brand new predictor model is also running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Sony Open Winning Prices: 2024: Murray 400/1; 2023: Si Woo Kim 45/1; 2022: Matsuyama 20/1; 2021: Na 80/1; 2020: Smith 55/1; 2019: Kuchar 40/1; 2018: Kizzire 80/1; 2017: Thomas 14/1; 2016: Gomez 100/1; 2015: Walker 18/1; 2014: Walker 40/1; 2013: Henley 100/1; 2012: Wagner 125/1; 2011: Wilson 80/1; 2010: Palmer 250/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 120/1; Overall Average: 96/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2024: Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High of 78. Win W 15-20 mph, with gusts to 32 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with brief showers. High of 74. Wind NNW 8-14 mph, with gusts to 22 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind NNW 8-14 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SW 6-12 mph.
• 2023: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 80. Wind ESE 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly Sunny. High of 80. Wind S at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 82. Wind SSE at 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind ESE at 10-15 mph.
• 2022: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 82. Wind ENE 8-16 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind SSW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 80. Wind light and variable. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind E 4-8 mph.
• 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind ENE 10-15 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind E 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind ESE 8-14 mph. Sunday: Chance of scattered showers throughout the afternoon, mostly sunny. High of 81. Wind SW 8-12 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers throughout the day. High of 80. Wind ENE 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers throughout the day. High of 80. Wind ENE 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. Saturday: Cloudy with scattered showers throughout the day. High of 79. Wind ENE 15-25 mph. Sunday: Cloudy with showers throughout the day. High of 78. Wind E 15-25 mph. Lift, clean and place all 72 holes.
• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind ESE 7-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind ESE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind ESE 7-14 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 84. Wind W 4-8 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 83. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 84. Wind NE 8-16 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind S 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 82. Wind S 5 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny and hazy. High of 83. Wind S 4-8 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy and hazy. High of 83. Wind SSE 6-12 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Sunny. High of 83. Wind WSW 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the area. High of 79 degrees, wind NE from 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny turning partly cloudy in the afternoon. High of 82. Wind ENE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures. High of 82. Wind E 5-10 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind S at 7-12 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with a high of 80. SSW wind at 7-15 mph in the afternoon. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind S at 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 82. Wind SW at 7-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Honolulu is here.

This area has taken on unseasonably low amounts of rain across November and December with most water on the course being placed there by the course superintendent over the past 6/7 weeks. There’s a 50% chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, so we could see firmish fairway conditions or potentially a softer situation – it looks 50/50.

Wind will also be a factor throughout, niggling through the opening 36 holes, then becoming stronger at the weekend. The direction is consistent from the north-east. Temperatures will be a pleasant 25 degrees Celsius – 75 Fahrenheit – throughout, similar to 2024. All-in-all upper-teens under par seems the right kind of winning total.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Black Desert Championship / Open de France which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded, plus the Hero World Challenge. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Luke Clanton; 2) Sam Stevens; 3) Taylor Pendrith / Aldrich Potgieter; 5) Byeong Hun An; 6) Matti Schmid; 7) Robert MacIntyre; 8) Davis Thompson; 9) Keegan Bradley; 10) Rico Hoey / Max McGreevy / Taylor Moore; 13) Doug Ghim; 14) Corey Conners / Yuta Sugiura; 16) Austin Eckroat / Maverick McNealy / Sepp Straka; 19) Zach Johnson / Kurt Kitayama / Jesper Svensson; 22) Thomas Detry / Lee Hodges / Mac Meissner; 25) Ben Griffin / Russell Henley.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Kurt Kitayama; 2) Aldrich Potgieter; 3) Yuta Sugiura; 4) Keegan Bradley / Sepp Straka; 6) Hideki Matsuyama / Taylor Pendrith; 8) Russell Henley; 9) Robert MacIntyre / Michael Thorbjornsen; 11) Tom Kim; 12) Si Woo Kim; 13) Michael Kim; 14) Corey Conners; 15) J.T. Poston; 16) Lucas Glover; 17) Maverick McNealy; 18) Ben Kohles; 19) Mackenzie Hughes; 20) Nick Dunlap / Henrik Norlander / Mac Meissner / Matti Schmid; 24) Lee Hodges / Sahith Theegala.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) David Lipsky; 2) Mackenzie Hughes; 3) Sahith Theegala; 4) Robert MacIntyre; 5) Thomas Detry / Greyson Sigg; 7) Byeong Hun An / Keegan Bradley; 9) Zach Johnson; 10) Kurt Kitayama / Denny McCarthy / Yuta Sugiura; 13) Hideki Matsuyama; 14) Kensei Hirata; 15) C.T. Pan; 16) Nick Dunlap / J.T. Poston; 18) Joe Highsmith / Paul Peterson; 20) Harris English / Russell Henley / Rico Hoey; 23) Eric Cole / Chan Kim / Max McGreevy / Andrew Putnam.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Kurt Kitayama; 2) Yuta Sugiura; 3) Robert MacIntyre; 4) Keegan Bradley / Taylor Pendrith; 6) Sepp Straka; 7) Lucas Glover / J.T. Poston; 9) Ben Griffin / Rico Hoey / Hideki Matsuyama; 12) Byeong Hun An / Corey Conners; 14) Zac Johnson; 15) Maverick McNealy / Mac Meissner / Aldrich Potgieter; 18) Russell Henley / Matti Schmid / Davis Thompson; 21) Tom Kim; 22) Joe Highsmith / Mackenzie Hughes; 24) Michael Thorbjornsen; 25) Max McGreevy / Sam Stevens.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brandt Snedeker; 2) Aldrich Potgieter; 3) Mackenzie Hughes; 4) Matti Schmid; 5) Keegan Bradley; 6) Corey Conners / Si Woo Kim; 8) Harry Hall; 9) Russell Henley; 10) Thomas Detry / Nico Echavarria / Ryo Hisatsune / Takumi Kanaya; 14) Byeong Hun An / Ryan Palmer / Vince Whaley; 17) Sepp Straka; 18) Erik van Rooyen; 19) Robert MacIntyre; 20) Nick Dunlap / Taylor Pendrith / Webb Simpson; 23) Luke Clanton / Max McGreevy / Taylor Moore.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Aldrich Potgieter; 2) Corey Conners / Yuta Sugiura; 4) Keegan Bradley; 5) Taylor Pendrith / Sepp Straka; 7) Robert MacIntyre / Max McGreevy; 9) Kurt Kitayama; 10) Ryan Gerard / J.T. Poston; 12) Harry Hall; 13) Byeong Hun An / Joe Highsmith; 15) Michael Thorbjornsen; 16) Lucas Glover / Si Woo Kim; 18) Luke Clanton / Ben Griffin / Maverick McNealy; 21) Austin Eckroat / Rico Hoey / Tom Kim; 24) Thomas Detry; 25) Hideki Matsuyama.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Sony Open winners here at Waialae Country Club since 2015 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this tree-lined, old-style, coastal, Par 70:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2024, Grayson Murray (-17). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 31st, SG Around the Green: 15th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 29th.
• 2023, Si Woo Kim (-18). SG Off the Tee: 32nd, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 38th.
• 2022, Hideki Matsuyama (-23). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 25th, SG Around the Green: 22nd, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 1st.
• 2021, Kevin Na (-21). SG Off the Tee: 44th, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 23rd.
• 2020, Cameron Smith (-11). SG Off the Tee: 18th, SG Approach: 53rd, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 30th, SG Putting: 1st.
• 2019, Matt Kuchar (-22). SG Off the Tee: 7th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 29th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2018, Patton Kizzire (-17). SG Off the Tee: 67th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 34th, SG Tee to Green: 20th, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2017, Justin Thomas (-27). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 2nd.
• 2016, Fabian Gomez (-20). SG Off the Tee: 54th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 14th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 5th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 25th, SG Approach: 15th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 8th, SG Putting: 12th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2024, Grayson Murray (-17). 311 yards (17th), 67.9% fairways (11th), 79.2% greens in regulation (2nd), 32’8″ proximity to hole (12th), 80.0% scrambling (5th), 1.74 putts per GIR (30th).
• 2023, Si Woo Kim (-18). 314 yards (26th), 62.5% fairways (13th), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 26’8″ proximity to hole (1st), 66.7% scrambling (32nd), 1.73 putts per GIR (25th).
• 2022, Hideki Matsuyama (-23). 306 yards (22nd), 71.4% fairways (13th), 73.6% greens in regulation (36th), 29’11” proximity to hole (17th), 84.2 % scrambling (6th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2021, Kevin Na (-21). 296 yards (64th), 55.4% fairways (50th), 76.4% greens in regulation (29th), 29’8″ proximity to hole (15th), 82.4 % scrambling (4th), 1.64 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2020, Cameron Smith (-11). 297 yards (6th), 64.3% fairways (41st), 70.8% greens in regulation (20th), 35’4″ proximity to hole (22nd), 66.7 % scrambling (20th), 1.69 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2019, Matt Kuchar (-22). 312 yards (14th), 71.4% fairways (4th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 29’7″ proximity to hole (8th), 75.0 % scrambling (9th), 1.62 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2018, Patton Kizzire (-17). 303 yards (54th), 51.8% fairways (56th), 73.6% greens in regulation (23rd), 32’7″ proximity to hole (19th), 68.4 % scrambling (19th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2017, Justin Thomas (-27). 320 yards (9th), 44.6% fairways (66th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 29’1″ proximity to hole (6th), 75.0 % scrambling (14th), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2016, Fabian Gomez (-20). 307 yards (27th), 50.0% fairways (60th), 77.8% greens in regulation (7th), 29’3″ proximity to hole (6th), 75.0 % scrambling (9th), 1.68 putts per GIR (17th).
• 2015, Jimmy Walker (-23). 309 yards (8th), 62.5% fairways (13th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 30’1″ proximity to hole (10th), 53.8 % scrambling (60th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2014, Jimmy Walker (-17). 320 yards (1st), 53.6% fairways (25th), 73.6% greens in regulation (7th), 37’10” proximity to hole (50th), 68.4 % scrambling (34th), 1.66 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2013, Russell Henley (-24). 293 yards (51st), 55.4% fairways (15th), 83.3% greens in regulation (2nd), 30’4″ proximity to hole (14th), 83.3% scrambling (4th), 1.62 putts per GIR (4th).
• 2012, Johnson Wagner (-13). 276 yards (68th), 41.1% fairways (58th), 70.8% greens in regulation (10th), 33’1″ proximity to hole (13th), 61.9% scrambling (25th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2011, Mark Wilson (-16). 289 yards (24th), 73.2% fairways (2nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (10th), 35”1″ proximity to hole (36th), 72.2% scrambling (10th), 1.67 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2010, Ryan Palmer (-15). 299 yards (24th), 46.4% fairways (50th), 76.4% greens in regulation (4th), 30’1″ proximity to hole (1st), 64.7% scrambling (24th), 1.69 putts per GIR (8th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 28th, Driving Accuracy: 32nd, Greens in Regulation: 11th, Proximity to Hole: 15th, Scrambling: 18th, Putting Average 8th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the course sets up and what skills it favours:

Grayson Murray (2024): “Keegan played great and kind of was back and forth all day, and obviously Ben posted 17-under early. Keegan was at 17 with one to go and I was at 16 with one to go and I had to make a birdie to at least have a chance, and obviously hit a heck of a wedge shot in there close to get that birdie and fortunate enough to get in that playoff.

That tee shot on 18 is not a good tee shot for a fader with the wind off the left. Tug it off the tee in the playoff, and we each just had to lay up. Didn’t hit my best wedge shot, but obviously I made the putt and was expecting both of them to make birdie, at least one of them.

I was kind of losing my balance off the tee shot the last few holes, just maybe a little nerves, maybe a little fatigue, and I left it out right. I’d get over there, and the rough isn’t trampled down like we thought so I wasn’t going to get a great lie when we did drop from the grandstands. We assessed the lie and I thought maybe I could open up a 7-wood and get it up there close to the green, but I don’t think the risk-reward was there, so we decided to hit I think — I forget what I hit, but we laid up to a great number where when the wind was in our face I could hit a low wedge shot in there.

I think we played that hole great, and we talked about, when we did get out of position all week, we talked it out. That’s the one thing I’m working on is just being super patient when I don’t hit the shot that I’m trying to hit at first.”

Si Woo Kim (2023): “Last week (Kapalua) is huge up-and-down and this course kind of flat. It’s kind of still windy, so hard to distance control.”

Hideki Matsuyama (2022): “Yeah, I mean, I feel great. To be able to win back-to-back with ZOZO and here with at the Sony, and especially on a course that I haven’t really played that well. It’s a tough golf course for me.

The differences between this week and last week? The fairways are so wide there at the Plantation Course, but here at Waialae, it’s narrow. The key this week was to keep the ball in the fairway off the tee.”

Kevin Na (2021): “I’m striking the ball very well. I’m making my share of putts. These greens can be really tricky out there and the grains can fool you. And it’s tough to read. If I can make some momentum putts tomorrow, I think I’ll be all right. It’s not a golf course you need to overpower. Just keep hitting it straight.”

The greens roll great but the only difficult part is the grains are sometimes difficult to judge. You know, we’ve had a couple putts this week and just not — not just myself, even my fellow playing partners, where it looks like it’s going to do one thing and it doesn’t. If you can just read these greens well, you’re going to be really ahead of the field.”

Cameron Smith (2020): “Yeah, I think that’s what you kind of to lean on in weeks like this. You’re going to miss greens, and with the greens being so small and the fairways being so small, yeah, definitely need a good short game around here.

I think with the Presidents Cup being so late I didn’t get a chance to kind of put the clubs down. Probably only had four or five days off, whereas usually have three or four weeks off. Yeah, just kind of a bit of momentum from those tournaments. I felt like I played really good in Australia all three weeks. Obviously not with the results that I wanted with all three tournaments, but, yeah, I felt as though I played pretty solid.”

Matt Kuchar (2019): “If you drive it well you can play well. This course is tricky, it’s tight, there are a lot of doglegs. Finding fairways are a tough thing to do and I drove it really well. Certainly this course is unique. We don’t play many like it. Reminds me a little bit of Hilton Head, a little bit of Colonial. It’s tight, it’s narrow, it’s flat, but, man, it’s tricky.

Similarities between El Camaleon and here? Both courses are very tight, very demanding driving golf courses. That would probably be the biggest similarity. The state of my game has felt similar; I’ve felt very much in control of what I’ve been doing with the golf ball.”

Patton Kizzire: “There’s a lot of birdies out there. You just have to make the most. I think it’s going to be a shootout. There’s a lot of opportunities on those par 5s and the par 4s. If you hit good shots, you can make birdies on almost every hole. But if you’re in the rough or out of position, you’re really scrambling for par. So I think there’s a lot of guys that are going to be making birdies. I just got to keep the pedal down and try to make a bunch.”

Justin Thomas: “Yeah, that same round, I was driving it well. And I know this course, if you drive it well, you can play it really well. It’s the hardest fairways to hit on Tour I think, and the greens aren’t big, and the rough is kind of that length to where you can get some flyers or it can come out dead. The biggest thing is just getting it in play, because I can just hit a lot of 2-irons out here and then I’m having short irons in, and I felt comfortable enough with those that I could hit my numbers. It wasn’t windy. Going back to that round, I remember, like I said, hitting it well and just kind of, it was an easy 61. Not that, you know, today wasn’t easy by any means, but it’s just low stress. It’s fairway, green under the hole, make the putt, not very much break, sort of thing. That’s just kind of what I did today. Yeah, it’s obviously two total and completely different golf courses. A lot more drivers last week. Just kind of whaling away more so. The fairways are huge this week. It’s a lot of position, and getting in the fairways, but I am kind of starting to hit a decent amount of drivers. Just to use my length to my advantage, and I feel comfortable with some of the drives.”

Kevin Kisner: “I have to keep it in the fairway, which is difficult with some of the winds and how fast the fairways were going, but today I was able to do that and hopefully keep doing it through the weekend. I love these greens. They were a little less grainy than last week and more like what I grew up on, so I feel very comfortable with them. I must have gotten better since the last few times I played here. I’ve always struggled at this course, coming over, being a little rusty from the East Coast and cold weather and trying to adjust. But this year I got to go to Maui and get kind of the rust off and the game feels good.”

Jimmy Walker: “Obviously I know this is one of the harder weeks on Tour to hit fairways, I think, is what this statistically comes down to. I always joke with my buddies that that plays into my hands because I don’t hit any fairways anyway. But it is nice to be in the fairway here. I remember I did drive it well here last year. I drove it really well, and that helps you set up to attack some of these greens and attack the pins. The greens are small. I mean, they’re tiny compared to last week. Fairways are tiny. It’s a much smaller course, but it does still play long. We were hitting a lot longer mid irons today with no wind, and it’s just a fraction soft. But you’ve still got to hit really good second shots. Driving it good here is nice because the rough is up and greens are small and you don’t want to be catching fliers into these greens and then you’ve got tough chip shots. I think it’s kind of get it in the fairway, get it on the green and get some putts to go in. It seems like you always go about 4 under a day out here or 5 under, that usually gets you right where you want to be.”

Zach Johnson: “Compare Waialae to Kapalua? Completely different. You’re talking about the hardest walk in golf at Maui to potentially and arguably the easiest golf on the PGA TOUR here at Waialae. Vastly different, but also challenging, too, because you’re going for some of the biggest fairways and some of the smallest fairways, and you’re going for some of the biggest greens and some of the smallest greens. Everything you would want in a golf course where you’ve got to pick it apart and plot your way around I think this golf lends itself to. If there’s any wind here, it’s hard, and it usually is blowing. This is hit the ball in the fairway, however you do it, get the ball in the fairway and then stay below the pin, keep the golf course in front of you and make those four and five footers. A great test.”

Matt Kuchar: “I told people that coming from Kapalua, these greens are much friendlier to putt. I feel like I have really good chances to see the ball go in. I love Kapalua, but the amount of slope and the amount of grain in the greens is challenging. It’s challenging to make putts there. Here these greens are much flatter with much less grain and much less slope, and it seems like it’s a much easier place to make putts now. The biggest difference is you can make putts more easily here, but hitting fairways is a much tougher task here than it is over at Kapalua. Here hitting fairways is so critical and today I did a very good job of that. There are a number of holes that can be extremely tough, that are tough holes, particularly finding the fairway, and if you don’t find the fairway, you’re struggling for pars. I found a lot of fairways today and was able to take a little more advantage. A hole can be taken advantage of when you’re in the fairway.”

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2024 – Davis – PM -8/62 – 55/1
• 2023 – Kirk/Montgomery/Spieth – 2AM/1PM Split -6/64 – 80/1, 50/1 & 35/1
• 2022 – Na – PM -9/61 – 40/1
• 2021 – Kokrak/Niemann/Malnati – 1AM/2PM Split -8/62 – 60/1, 40/1 & 125/1
• 2020 – Morikawa – PM -5/65 – 33/1
• 2019 – Svensson – PM -9/61 – 200/1
• 2018 – Z Johnson / Kirk – AM/PM Split -7/63 – 33/1 & 80/1
• 2017 – Thomas – AM -11/59 – 33/1
• 2016 – Barnes / Hoffmann/ Kisner / Singh / Snedeker – 3AM/2PM Split -7/63.
• 2015 – Casey / Simpson – Both AM -8/62.
• 2014 – Bae – AM -7/63.
• 2013 – Langley – PM -7/63.
• 2012 – Delaet – AM -7/63.
• 2011 – Appleby – AM -6/64.
• 2010 – Allenby / Z Johnson / Love III / Merrick / Merritt / Palmer 3AM/3PM Split -5/65.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Ryan Palmer, Camilo Villegas.
• 3 – Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Brandt Snedeker.
• 2 – Daniel Berger, Harris English, Lucas Glover, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati, Webb Simpson, Nick Taylor.
• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Keegan Bradley, Rafael Campos, Corey Conners, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Chris Gotterup, Adam Hadwin, James Hahn, Nick Hardy, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Patton Kizzire, Luke List, Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Taylor Moore, C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, Gary Woodland.

There’s no doubt that players who have played at Kapalua the week before the Sony Open have historically had an advantage. Of the past 26 Champions, 17 (65%) had played on Maui the week before triumphing here. Since 2014, Waialae winners – namely Walker (x2), Gomez, Thomas, Kizzire, Kuchar, Na and Matsuyama – all played The Sentry.

Naturally though there are exceptions, indeed we only have to look back 12 months. Sadly no longer with us, Grayson Murray’s last competitive action had been the RSM Classic in late-November before flying to Honolulu for the Sony Open. Murray had won on the Korn Ferry Tour in September but Grayson’s only PGA Tour outing in the Fall had been a Missed Cut at the RSM Classic.

Si Woo Kim’s last competitive action had been the Houston Open in mid-November before flying to Honolulu for the 2023 Sony Open. In retrospect if you are a form-in punter you would have had to take a leap of faith for a player whose 3 prior finishes were 35th at Memorial Park, 52nd at the CJ Cup and 45th at the ZOZO Championship in Japan.

2019 saw Cameron Smith beating long-term leader Brendan Steele in a play-off to take his 2nd PGA Tour title. Neither had played the Tournament of Champions. So my advice is don’t get caught in the ‘must play Kapalua’ camp – it helps but certainly isn’t mission critical as Murray, Si Woo, Smith plus Russell Henley, Mark Wilson and Ryan Palmer have proven since 2010.

Course experience seems to be pay real dividends at Waialae as 18 of the past 19 champions had played the Sony Open prior to lifting the trophy. The only exception to this rule was again Russell Henley in 2013 when he beat the rest of the field by a huge margin in his first PGA Tour start in his rookie season, having arrived in Honolulu fresh from two late season wins on the web.com Tour.

The key skill attributes at Waialae are hard to ascertain. All shapes and player types have won here from long hitters like Walker, Thomas, Matsuyama and Murray through to short game specialists such as Mark Wilson and Kevin Na. One-size fits all!

Making putts here though tends to be key, be that in terms of Putts per GIR or Strokes Gained Putting. With small, flat greens, this tournament eventually comes down to who converts the most chances, i.e. who putts the best on fairly grainy TifDwarf Bermudagrass greens. 10 of the past 13 winners of the Sony since 2012 finished in the top 10 for Strokes Gained Putting on the week. It’s worth noting though that 3 of the past 4 champions haven’t hit that level as Kevin Na (23rd for SG Putting), Si Woo Kim (38th for SG Putting) and Grayson Murray (29th for SG Putting) clearly mashed their approaches and noticeably gained strokes around the green as well.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 13:29GMT 6.1.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.