Course Overview. The Course at Rinkven is a parkland affair originally designed by Paul Rolin in 1985 and subsequently updated by Martin Hawtree. Some holes are tree-lined whilst others are exposed, however it’s generally a flat, scoreable track.
The layout played for the Belgian Knockout was a composite of the North and South courses and measured 6,924 yards for its par of 71; this week’s event is listed with the same metrics, so barring any late change from the DP World Tour we should be looking at the same routing as 2019 when we last visited these parts.
The front 9 is slightly longer than the back 9 with a solitary par-5 on both halves, however the short par-4 16th played the easiest of all the holes over the 2 Belgian Knockout events and offers birdie and eagle opportunities to those who take it on. 3 Par-3s explains the overall Par of 71, with 13 Par-4s eclipsing last week’s 12 at The Belfry.
The greens are Poa Annua-based, but overseeded with Bentgrass each year to achieve the desired playing surface of 80% Bentgrass, 20% Poa.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who might go well this week.
Course stats include results from the 3 events held here at Rinkven since 2010: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Course Winners. Belgian Knockout: 2019: Guido Migliozzi; 2018: Adrian Otaegui; Telenet Trophy (Challenge Tour): 2010: Lee Slattery, -21.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Very similar conditions to last week in England are to be expected as we hop over to Belgium, with sunny spells and the odd shower expected to accompany a fairly light breeze of 5-10mph, with the odd gust maybe a little higher. Temperatures will once again peak in the high 60s to low 70s Fahrenheit.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
Digging beneath the numbers from the two Belgian Knockout events gives us a starting point for this week. Analysing the final stats of the top 2 after the 36-hole strokeplay element gives us a little insight into this test:
- 2019: Chris Paisley (-12). 66.7 % fairways (16th), 72.2% greens in regulation (42nd), 80.0% scrambling (11th), 1.58 putts per GIR (5th).
- 2018: Jorge Campillo (-8). 73.3% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 28.6% scrambling (87th), 1.66 putts per GIR (12th).
Looking at the same 36-hole data for the eventual winners gives us another angle:
- 2019: Guido Migliozzi. 60.0% fairways (34th), 86.1% greens in regulation (2nd), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (64th).
- 2018: Adrian Otaegui. 60.0% fairways (28th), 69.4% greens in regulation (35th), 54.5% scrambling (25th), 1.76 putts per GIR (50th).
Of course these numbers exclude the Matchplay element so the sample sizes are small, so basing decision on any inferences from this may be dangerous, although there’s a hint that a tidy performance from tee to green may be favoured, combined with a good short game.
Rinkven GC was also used for the Telenet Trophy on the Challenge Tour in 2010 won by Lee Slattery (final leaderboard is here) with a 21-under total. Although there were 4 par-5s on the course at the time, it was the par-4s that proved pivotal for Slattery 12 years ago as he finished -11 for those holes over the course of the week. Runner-up Edouard Dubois led the field for par-4 scoring at -13 on the week, so although we’re playing a different course routing now, it may well be worth considering positive par-4 performance as a critical success factor.
Strokes Gained: There’s a similar caveat with the SG numbers that were captured in 2019 only, in that they are from the first 36 holes before the Matchplay element began. Some correlation is evident though with 36-hole leader Chris Paisley ranking 2nd for SG Tee to Green behind eventual winner Guido Migliozzi:
2019 – 36 Hole Leader:
- 1st, Chris Paisley: T: 45th; A: 4th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 17th; P: 5th
2019 – Overall Winner:
- 1st, Guido Migliozzi: T: 1st; A: 35th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 48th; P: 76th
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: Looking at the same players who finished ahead after 36 holes over the 2 Belgian knockout events, we see some solid recent form trends:
- 2019, Chris Paisley: 34/24/18/MC/56/24/9/48/57/38/MC/4
- 2018, Jorge Campillo: 35/27/MC/12/14/MC/2/4/27/5/46/3
Similarly, eventual 2018 winner Adrian Otaegui was also in a rich vein of form coming into this event with 5 consecutive top-20 finishes to his name and a runner-up finish in China behind Alexander Bjork on his previous start, whereas 2019 winner Guido Migliozzi had won the Kenya Open earlier in the season and hadn’t missed a cut since:
- 2019, Guido Migliozzi: MC/MC/56/MC/MC/63/MC/1/41/25/32/35/33
- 2018, Adrian Otaegui: 12/73/60/42/40/22/39/12/10/12/19/2
My selections are as follows: