South African Open Tips 2020

The top of the market looks a real minefield to me, particularly with the added pressure of lifting the South African Open title for the home contingent.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout has come close once in this event, but has missed the cut on his last 2 attempts and for a single-figure price there’s also the question as to how much will be left in the tank after a challenging 4 days at Leopard Creek, both physically and mentally.

Also at single figures is Dylan Frittelli who impressed massively when finishing 5^th at Augusta earlier in November. That form is unmistakably better than anyone else here can claim at elite level, yet again there’s no better than 18^th on his CV from 6 attempts a the SA Open title over the years.

Brandon Stone already has this trophy in his cabinet and could well have another good run at the title this week, whereas Wilco Nienaber and Jayden Schaper may well win one of these in the future, but whether there needs to be a little more water under the bridge first remains to be seen.

Instead I’ve backed one of the brightest maidens on the European Tour to break his duck here, Matthias Schwab. In my mind, the Austrian is a level above the vast majority of this field and when he eventually gets over the line, I’m sure he’ll push on to bigger and better things at a rate of knots.

An outstanding end to 2019 saw the 25 year-old rack up 5^th place at the Czech Masters, 8^th at Crans, 2^nd at the Porsche European Open, 4^th at the Italian Open, 4^th at the WGC HSBC Champions and 2^nd at the Turkish Airlines Open where he came closest yet to a win, eventually losing out to Tyrrell Hatton in the play-off.

A win around that point would have seen Schwab on the brink of a top-50 OWGR position, sadly for him though the events ran out aside from the DP World Tour Championship where he finished 20^th.

As with all professional golfers, 2020 has been a disjointed affair, however 3^rd at the PGA Tour’s Barracuda Championship deserves a mention as Old Greenwood Golf Course sits at almost 6,000 feet of elevation and the adjustments required for that level of altitude aren’t dissimilar to this week’s task. Matthias ranked 5^th for Driving Accuracy and 3^rd for GIR that week to show that the calculations were no issue whatsoever, and that should bode well ahead of his second look at the track here at Sun City, having finished 41^st here in 2018 at the Nedbank.

13^th last week at Leopard Creek was a good warm-up for this and the quality long game that he’s mentioned recently on Social Media was in evidence as he ranked 3^rd for Driving Accuracy, 10^th for GIR and 6^th for Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. More of the same this week should set him in good stead and without the pressure that some of the locals may feel this week, despite the lack of spectators, I can see Schwab having a good stab at breaking his maiden here. RESULT: T14

One of those players in attendance with the most tangible course form is Neil Schietekat and given he flashed a bit of form at the Joburg Open the week before last, I’ll take a chance on him this week.

The Gary Player Country Club is regular host of Sunshine Tour events as well as the Nedbank Golf Challenge and although form from those events is understandably at a lower grade than this, those who’ve continually played well at the venue need to be given some respect in my view.

We’ve listed the most recent events from both Tours in our combined course stats page here, however there’s more distant form available from the Dimension Data Pro-Am and Nashau Golf Challenge where the course was used either exclusively or as the host course of a 2-course rotation.

13 attempts here over the years has produced 12 paid weekends, 4 top-10 finishes and a win at the Sun City Challenge in 2018, which counted as the 36 year-old’s second of three wins on the Sunshine Tour. More recently he finished 2^nd here behind Daniel Van Tonder at the start of November in a modified stableford format event and clearly enjoys the track.

As a Johannesburg native, playing at altitude becomes the norm and by representing Royal Johannesburg and Kensington GC – the host of the Joburg Open for a number of years – he’ll have had plenty of practice in the kind of conditions that we’ll be presented with this week.

11^th at Randpark at the aforementioned Joburg Open the week before last was also encouraging, particularly as he closed with an impressive 67 which matched eventual winner JB Hansen, and this will surely feel like another home tie for Neil. 15^th for Driving Accuracy and 3^rd for GIR is perfect for this week’s task and with last week’s missed cut behind him, I’d expect a decent effort here this week. RESULT: T51

One player with a quietly impressive record at lower levels of European golf is Oliver Farr and there are growing signs that the Welshman, who resides the other side of the border in Hereford, is becoming increasingly comfortable at European Tour level.

Wins on the Challenge Tour in 2014, 2017 and 2019 paved the way on each occasion to a season on the upper tier, however it’s only on this most recent attempt that the 32 year-old has really hinted that he might be ready to take the next step and become a European Tour winner.

3^rd at the Hero Open in August saw Oliver contend throughout in impressive fashion, without being able to find a Sunday round low enough to secure victory, and 9^th at the Scottish Championship also impressed in October as he opened with a sluggish 73 before improving throughout and closing with an excellent round of 65.

After drawing a blank in Cyprus, Farr improved again when arriving in South Africa, finishing 30^th at the Joburg Open and 20^th last week at Leopard Creek. On both occasions he was inside the top 10 at the halfway point and perhaps it will be third time lucky here at Sun City for the kind of weekend performance that would see him seriously contend.

In terms of his game fitting this week’s test, Farr’s last 3 visits to South Africa have seen him rank 7^th, 6^th and 11^th for Driving Accuracy as well as 11^th, 14^th and 4^th for GIR, which is an ideal combination for the Gary Play Country Club. The most distant of those, a tie for 28^th at Randpark in January and his aforementioned 30^th place finish a fortnight ago were both at altitude, and that’s a big part of the equation this week. Players who can control their long game with the adjustments required for the thinner air are at an advantage here and the more experience that he’s having in this part of the world, the better he’s getting. RESULT: MC

Finally, at a juicy long price, I’m taking a chance on England’s Richard McEvoy whose driving performances over the past 2 weeks in South Africa have really caught the eye.

The past two European Tour winners here at the Gary Player Country Club are Tommy Fleetwood and Lee Westwood and that in itself tells us that long game excellence can work very nicely here at the altitude of Sun City. 1^st for Driving Accuracy at the Joburg Open and an identical performance last week at Leopard Creek tells us that the 41 year-old is hitting it as well as anyone from off the tee right now and with a middling week on the greens, further progression from the 42^nd and 25^th place finishes of the past fortnight is quite possible.

European Tour winners are fairly thin on the ground this week with the bulk of the field being made up from South African players or those who play predominantly on that Tour, however in McEvoy we have a player who’s successfully got over the line relatively recently – the 2018 Porsche European Open – coming exactly 1 week after securing his third career Challenge Tour title in France. Add another couple of PGA EuroPro Tour wins into the mix and suddenly it doesn’t feel too much of a stretch to see the Essex man triumph at long odds.

60^th here at Sun City in his only attempt in 2018 hardly inspires, however that was the final event of his breakthrough season and it’s understandable if he was winding down for a well-deserved break by that point in the year. His driving was nowhere near what we’ve seen recently and his short game was very poor at the time, so recent form with the driver coupled with a 2^nd place ranking for scrambling last week suggests a much better effort could be on the cards this time around. RESULT: MC