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Congratulations to Alex Noren and Francesco Molinari backers. The Swede came from off the pace to cement a spot in the European Ryder Cup team on the host course and the Italian captured his 2nd main Tour win in 4 appearances just outside of Washington DC. He also captured his first title on American soil, earning an extended 3-year exemption on the PGA Tour into the bargain, as the National title has Invitational status. The National was a blank week for me but Paul Williams landed a full 200/1 each-way place at the Open de France with Matthew Southgate.

This week sees the renamed tournament at Greenbrier: A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier. It’s a huge opportunity for many in the field with Open Championship qualifying spots and much needed FedEx Cup points up for grabs. In the past this tournament has gone to bigger priced players at a tournament which has a small feel to it.

Over on the European tour, Paul Williams previews the Irish Open – you can read his thoughts on that event here.

Course Guide: The spa town of White Sulphur Springs – and West Virginia in general – suffered tremendous flooding on the 23rd June 2016, resulting in 23 deaths. Old White TPC, along with 3 other courses at the resort, were flooded with water covering the course up to 6 feet in depth. Naturally the 2016 Greenbrier Classic was cancelled and a whole new renovation project kicked-off to get the course ready for 2017. Architect Keith Foster led the work which saw the whole course re-seeded. Re-surfacing, re-contouring and re-seeding of all 18 green complexes took place and every bunker on the course was re-built. In essence though the course hasn’t changed much. It’s very classical in nature and tree-lined with a 34/36 front/back split – indeed the front 9 features no par-5s and the closing hole is a 179 yard par-3.

The Old White TPC, White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia: Designer: MacDonald/Raynor 1914, with PGA Tour Design renovation 2010/11, Keith Foster renovation 2016; Course Type: Classical, Mid-Score; Par: 70; Length: 7,286 yards; Water Hazards: 10; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass 3″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass; Stimpmeter: 10.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 69.78 (-0.22), Difficulty Rank 27 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.87 (-0.13), Difficulty Rank 25 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.10 (+0.10), Rank 26 of 48 courses. 2015: 69.17 (-0.83), Rank 35 of 52 courses. 2017: 69.86 (-0.14), Rank 27 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Old White TPC and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Old White TPC: 250 yards from the tee: 36 yards wide; 275:34; 300:34; 325:35; 350:32.
• TPC Potomac: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:27; 325:23; 350:27.
• TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 37 yards wide; 275:35; 300:28; 325:28; 350:27.
• Shinnecock Hills: Average 42 yards with 8th hole widest at 64 yards wide.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 36 yards wide; 275:35; 300:31; 325:26; 350:30.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• Trinity Forest: 250 yards from the tee: 58 yards wide; 275:54; 300:56; 325:60; 350:57.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:32; 325:29; 350:20.
• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:30; 325:29; 350:28.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:28; 325:27; 350:25.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 30 yards wide; 275:24; 300:21; 325:26; 350:23.

Course Overview: Keith Foster’s renovation is one of those PGA Tour courses where any type of player can win. Jonas Blixt and Xander Schauffele are polar opposites, as are Angel Cabrera and Ted Potter Jnr, but all have won here at Old White TPC. We wondered how the revised course would play with new green complexes and bunkers, but to all intents and purposes the challenge of this tournament remained the same. Wide fairways here give inaccurate drivers every chance, which at 34 yards wide at 300 yard carry make them far wider than recent Par 70s we have seen at Colonial, TPC Southwind, TPC River Highlands and TPC Potomac. Bentgrass green complexes at an average of 7,000 sq.ft are also large – remember this is a golf course within a popular golf resort – so it’s a little bit of a surprise that Old White very much plays as mid-score winning golf course. It’s certainly no pushover and it ranked as the 15th toughest for Par Breakers last season.

With wide fairways and large green complexes, the main defence of the course is the bunkering and greens themselves. Old White’s sand traps are some of the hardest on the PGA Tour, so bunker avoidance helps massively. The re-laid green surfaces themselves were particularly non-receptive 12 months ago, which is often the case with new greens. A year down the line they should have bedded-in far more, but traditionally the greens here always rank in the bottom 12 for Birdie or Better Conversion. Winning here is not that easy and to put the challenge into context this week, out of the 28 rounds played by the previous seven champions of this tournament, the only winner with a round in the 70s is Scott Stallings in 2011. With relatively difficult greens, traditionally this turns into a putting contest – so those with form with the flat stick tends to be vital here.

Another point to take on board is that the course and surrounding Greenbrier resort is within a National Park in the Appalachian mountain range and the track is 2,000 feet above sea level – this is a great advantage for the shorter hitters who can easily add 15 yards to their driving. Some golfers struggle with the calculations needed in thinner air where the ball travels further.

Winners: 2017: Xander Schauffele (-14); 2016: No Tournament; 2015: Danny Lee (-13); 2014: Angel Cabrera (-16); 2013: Jonas Blixt (-13); 2012: Ted Potter Jnr (-16); 2011: Scott Stallings (-10); 2010: Stuart Appleby (-22).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Brian Harman, Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Russell Henley, J.B. Holmes, Kevin Na, Brian Gay, Peter Malnati, Tony Finau and Anirban Lahiri.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the China Open and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Conrad Shindler; 2) Ryan Armour / John Peterson; 4) Ken Duke; 5) Brian Gay / David Lingmerth; 6) Russell Henley; 7) Ryan Moore / Sam Ryder; 9) Jim Furyk; 10) J.J. Spaun; 11) Ted Potter Jnr; 12) Billy Hurley III / Kevin Streelman; 14) Ben Silverman; 15) J.J. Henry; 16) Alex Cejka / C.T. Pan; 18) Stuart Appleby / Hudson Swafford; 20) Vijay Singh.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Joaquin Niemann; 2) Ryan Moore / John Peterson; 4) J.J. Spaun; 5) Kevin Streelman; 6) J.J. Henry; 7) Andrew Putnam; 8) Tony Finau; 9) C.T. Pan; 10) Vaughn Taylor; 11) Tyler Duncan / Webb Simpson; 13) Vijay Singh; 14) J.T. Poston; 15) Joel Dahmen; 16) Kevin Na / Sam Ryder / Bubba Watson; 19) Ryan Armour / Scott Piercy.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Eric Axley; 2) Phil Mickelson; 3) Brendon De Jonge; 4) Parker McLachlin; 5) Ben Crane; 6) Stephan Jaeger; 7) Brandon Harkins; 8) Stuart Appleby / Brian Gay; 10) Whee Kim; 11) Peter Malnati / Patrick Rodgers / Xander Schauffele; 14) Derek Fathauer / Brandt Snedeker / Daniel Summerhays; 17) Cody Gribble / Tony Finau / Ted Potter Jnr; 20) Scott Brown.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Schauffele 66/1; 2016: No Tournament; 2015: Danny Lee 150/1; 2014: Cabrera 100/1; 2013: Blixt 125/1; 2012: Potter Jnr 500/1; 2011: Stallings 175/1; 2010: Appleby 80/1; Average: 180/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 105/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 80. Wind WSW 10-15 mph. Friday: Early morning showers moved through the area before clearing and becoming partly cloudy with a high of 80. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind NW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny with a high of 80. Wind light and variable 4-8 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Cloudy, with afternoon showers amounting to .2 inches of rain. High of 76. Wind WSW at 5-10 mph. Friday: Steady showers, with periods of heavy rain in the morning followed by clouds in the afternoon. High of 73. Wind variable at 4-8 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with intermittent rain and brief periods of sunshine. High of 76. Wind WNW at 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with light showers. High of 74. Wind ESE at 5-10 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Sulphur Springs, West Virginia, is here. We may well get soft conditions this week in White Sulphur Springs. 396 mm of rain in the area over the past 3 months is high and 42mm of that arrived last week up to Saturday. The prospects of rain cannot be written off either in the build-up to the tournament or across Thursday, Friday or Saturday. Wind will not be a factor, apart from around 10mph on Sunday and temperatures will climb no higher than 29 degrees Celsius on the Thursday. From there expect 27-28 degrees Celsius.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 7 winners of this event since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Xander Schauffele (-14). 318 yards (15th), 75.0% fairways (14th), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 31’10” (18th), 66.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.75 putts per GIR (14th).
• 2015, Danny Lee (-13). 287 yards (53rd), 76.8% fairways (17th), 72.2% greens in regulation (43rd), proximity to hole 31’1″ (51st), 65.0 % scrambling (47th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2014, Angel Cabrera (-16). 307 yards (11th), 82.1% fairways (4th), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 28’5″ (7th), 60.0% scrambling (52nd), 1.65 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2013, Jonas Blixt (-13). 292 yards (48th), 62.5% fairways (60th), 66.7% greens in regulation (48th), proximity to hole 34’10” (62nd), 79.2% scrambling (3rd), 1.60 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2012, Ted Potter Jnr. (-16). 305 yards (36th), 80.4% fairways (3rd), 72.2% greens in regulation (21st), proximity to hole 31’0″ (24th), 80.0% scrambling (3rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2011, Scott Stallings (-10). 324 yards (5th), 62.5% fairways (54th), 79.2% greens in regulation (2nd), proximity to hole 32’7″ (24th), 40.0% scrambling (62nd), 1.72 putts per GIR (19th).
• 2010, Stuart Appleby (-22). 307 yards (21st), 73.2% fairways (45th), 79.2% greens in regulation (40th), proximity to hole 28’11” (40th), 93.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 27th, Driving Accuracy: 28th, Greens in Regulation: 22nd, Proximity to Hole: 32nd, Scrambling: 25th, Putting Average 6th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the course sets up and what specific skills it requires:

Xander Schauffele: “The greens are awesome. I mean, they were concrete and we got a ton the rain. Expect them to be much, but I guess they needed some rain because they’re absolutely perfect right now. On the 18th, it was 157 front, 162 pin, there was a little bit of altitude up here, so my caddie and I, we looked at a pitching wedge and 9-iron and, under the gun, you never want to swing something soft, so we grabbed the pitching wedge real quick.“

Danny Lee: “For some reason I just read the greens really nicely here. I feel like everywhere on the green I just feel like I can make every putt, so all I was trying to do is hit the fairway and just trying to get it on the green somehow and try to give it the best chance with my putter. I think this course really suits my game.“

Jonas Blixt: “I mean, considering last year it was quite soft, I thought the golf course just had a few holes where you needed to make pars, and the rest of the golf course was pretty much birdieable everywhere. Hitting a good shot on 16 to get a good chance to making birdie, 16, 17, the same thing. There are a bunch of birdie holes, and that’s why I was so surprised that I found myself in contention where I didn’t make any birdies the last day, a bunch of pars and maybe one or two bogeys and I was right there.“

Steve Stricker: “Yeah, it’s a good course. I was talking to somebody earlier. I don’t know if it favours any type of golfer here. I don’t think it favours a bomber. I don’t think it favours a short hitter. You’ll have to give yourself opportunities out of the fairway, for sure. The rough is just thick enough where it’s hard to control. If you’re in the rough, you can’t be as aggressive into the green. So it’s playing pretty long too. The fairways are soft, but they’ll dry out a little bit as we get going on. But it’s going to take a well rounded player playing at the top of his game this week. You’re not going to fake it around here at all, I don’t think. It’s a good course, and it’s a good test.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 7 winners of this event:

• 2017 – Xander Schauffele – Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2015 – Danny Lee – Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 5th.
• 2014 – Angel Cabrera: Round 1: 31st, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2013 – Jonas Blixt: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2012 – Ted Potter Jnr: Round 1: 41st, Round 2: 23rd, Round 3: 6th.
• 2011 – Scott Stallings: Round 1: 42nd, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2010 – Stuart Appleby: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 18th, Round 3: 8th.

Incoming form of winners since 2011:

• Xander Schauffele: 35th TPC Potomac/14th TPC River Highlands/5th US Open/52nd St Jude.
• Danny Lee: 21st Travelers/MC US Open/MC Memorial/34th TPC4S.
• Angel Cabrera: 24th Congressional/11th Travelers/MC US Open/MC Colonial.
• Jonas Blixt: MC Congressional/43rd Travelers/2nd Nordea/11th Colonial.
• Ted Potter Jnr: 51st United Leasing/MC St Jude/MC Quail/MC TPC Louisiana.
• Scott Stallings: 22nd Canada/22nd JDC/MC Aronimink/MC Travelers.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Munoz – PM -9/61 – 250/1.
• 2015 – Langley – AM -8/62.
• 2014 – Blixt – AM -6/64.
• 2013 – Gainey / Wagner – Both AM -8/62.
• 2012 – Singh – AM -7/63.
• 2011 – Immelman – AM -6/64.
• 2010 – Compton / Every – AM/PM Split -7/63.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Webb Simpson, Bubba Watson
• 3 – Stuart Appleby, Phil Mickelson, Ryan Moore.
• 2 – Angel Cabrera, Brian Harman, Nick Watney.
• 1 – Jonas Blixt, Keegan Bradley, Jonathan Byrd, Ken Duke, Bill Haas, Billy Hurley III, Smylie Kaufman, Kevin Kisner, Danny Lee, David Lingmerth, Kevin Na, Geoff Ogilvy, Sean O’Hair, Rod Pampling, Ted Potter Jnr, Rory Sabbatini, Xander Schauffele, Brandt Snedeker, Scott Stallings, Kevin Streelman.

So we face a tournament this week where reasonable golfing logic tends to be thrown aside. Qualification for the Open Championship is naturally a huge carrot for the PGA Tour’s rank and file and that shouldn’t be underestimated, but from a player motivation perspective it’s also worth recognising a couple of things. This tournament slots in after the recent rigours of Shinnecock, Memphis, and TPC Potomac – which last week was the 15th hardest course played on the PGA Tour this season. It’s also only 2 weeks until the Open Championship and it’s worth remembering that 4 players who haven’t already qualified and who finish in the top 12 at Old White TPC will secure places in The Open Championship. Last week it was Abraham Ancer, Ryan Armour, Bronson Burgoon and Sung Kang.

The tournament itself tends to be a putting contest where short game specialists or in-form ball-strikers can contend. Incredibly the close of the regular FedEx Cup series is also just around the corner and there are plenty of players who are fighting for their 2018/19 playing privileges. Player interviews from previous tournaments here quote that the Greenbrier has a ‘small event’ feel to it, so it’s no real surprise to see that Xander Schauffele, Danny Lee, Scott Stallings and Ted Potter Jnr all won their first ever PGA Tour titles here and that the tournament is perennially contended by a host of Tour maidens and players who are fighting for their PGA Tour futures. That’s why I’ve gone for a range of players this week with their prices allowing flexibility in the number of names in this week’s portfolio.

My selections are as follows: