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Bubba Watson winning at 50/1 for the 3rd time at Riviera is one of those results you regret missing out on. Now as short as 25/1 for The Masters, Watson managed to juggle the Genesis Open and the NBA All-Star game with real aplomb. The links with Riviera Country Club and Augusta National are undeniable and Watson, who’s now finding fairways and putting surfaces with regularity, has to be a real danger to capture his 3rd Green Jacket. Another rejuvenated Green Jacket holder Phil Mickelson delivered a small each-way return for this column as we set sail for Florida this week.

The Honda Classic marks the start of the PGA Tour Florida swing and the 2018 Masters is now just over the horizon as we approach the end of February. The Honda Classic has always been known as a tough examination as it takes place at the Jack Nicklaus-inspired Champions Course at PGA National. The Florida Swing these days only sees trips to PGA National, Innisbrook and Bay Hill, with the first WGC event of the year residing in Mexico rather than Miami.

Course Guide: Make no bones about it, the Champions Course at PGA National is a brute. It’s an archetypical Florida golf course with water hazards, testing bunkering and tough rough aplenty. Positioned within a mile of the Atlantic east coast, this part of Florida is synonymous with windy conditions. This test therefore suits those with a Major temperament: players who have patience, but also those who can take advantage of key holes where birdies have to be made. The famous ‘Bear Trap’, the stretch of 15-17, is one of the hardest sets of holes in non-Major golf.

The Champions Course is best summarised by the fact that it has been the toughest non-Major Par 70 course on the PGA Tour across 3 of the past 5 seasons. It was the second toughest in 2014, whilst soft and tranquil conditions in 2017 saw the course play the easiest it ever could – ranking 6th toughest of 13 non-Major Par 70s. Rickie Fowler won at -12/268.

Champions Course, PGA National, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida: Designer: Tom and George Fazio, 1981 with Nicklaus re-designs in 1990 and 2013 Course Type: Florida, Technical; Par: 70; Length: 7,140 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 13; Fairways: Bermuda with Perennial Rye; Rough: Bermuda with Perennial Rye 3″; Greens: 6,400 sq.ft average TifEagle Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimp: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.19 (+1.19), Difficulty Rank 11 of 49 courses. 2013: 71.32 (+1.32), Difficulty Rank 5 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.41 (+0.41), Rank 17 of 48 courses. 2015: 71.83 (+1.83), Rank of 4 of 52 courses. 2016: 71.77 (+1.77), Rank 5 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.56 (+0.56), Rank 16 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for PGA National and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:24; 325:27 350:25.
• Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:29; 300:25; 325:27 350:27.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 41 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:34 350:30.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:30; 300:29; 325:29 350:29.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:25 350:23.
• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:30; 300:29; 325:29; 350:27.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:32; 300:33; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 54 yards wide; 275:58; 300:62; 325:57; 350:61.
• Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 39 yards wide; 275:38; 300:33; 325:29; 350:23.
• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:26; 325:25; 350:24.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Jack Nicklaus designs include:

• Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship
• Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2017
• Montreaux GCC – Barracuda Championship
• Muirfield Village Golf Club – The Memorial
• Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013
• Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
• PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
• PGA West – Tournament Course – CareerBuilder Challenge 2016 – 2018

Course Overview: 2014 saw the Champions Course for the very first time play to an extended 7,140 yardage with the 4th and 12th holes stretched by 30 yards. From a hazard perspective, all bunkering was re-shaped adding to the difficulty of a Florida course that features 26 individual water hazards. PGA National is an exposed property allowing direct access to tee boxes, fairways and green complexes for any wind. Since the Nicklaus-inspired course changes, winning totals of -12/268 (Fowler), -9/271 (Scott), -6/274 (Harrington) and -8/272 (Henley) highlight a course and playing conditions which stretches the world’s best players. Softer turf conditions and calmer wind strength across both 2016 and 2017 saw winning totals lower slightly, but make no bones about it, with firmer and windier conditions expected in 2018, this is by no means an easy golf course.

Course experience is important, but debutants can also contend (take local rookie Daniel Berger in 2015, for instance) and even win just like Rory Sabbatini did in 2011. Ultimately maximising birdie opportunities, especially on only 8 visits to the par-5s, but minimising bogeys on the far tougher back-9 this week will be critical in a tournament that will undoubtedly feature wind-positive players. A golf course which has seen little rain, in tandem with blustery winds off the Atlantic, should make scoring harder in 2018. Don’t expect a birdie-fest as this course always plays tough, but we could see around -8/272 being the target score required for victory this week. Look for those with a decent long approach game in the wind, allied to razor-sharp Bermudagrass scrambling and putting skills to levitate to the top of the leaderboard. However the ability to grind it out will naturally be paramount on this difficult golf course.

Winners: 2017: Rickie Fowler (-12); 2016: Adam Scott (-9); 2015: Padraig Harrington (-6); 2014: Russell Henley (-8); 2013: Michael Thompson (-9); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-12); 2011: Rory Sabbatini (-9); 2010: Camilo Villegas (-13).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Scott Stallings, Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Brandt Snedeker, Billy Horschel, Sergio Garcia and Jimmy Walker.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the RSM Classic / DP Tour World Championship and includes PGA Tour and European Tour events, plus the Hero World Challenge. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Ryan Armour; 2) Rickie Fowler; 3) Tommy Fleetwood; 4) John Huh / Vaughn Taylor; 6) Kevin Kisner; 7) Austin Cook; 8) Alex Noren / Xin-Jun Zhang; 10) Tyrrell Hatton / C.T. Pan; 12) David Lingmerth; 13) Blayne Barber / Sergio Garcia / Emiliano Grillo; 16) Chad Campbell; 17) Kiradech Aphibarnrat / Billy Horschel; 19) Lucas Glover / Brian Harman / Chris Kirk / Brian Stuard.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Russell Knox; 2) Tommy Fleetwood; 3) Tyrrell Hatton; 4) Billy Horschel / Alex Noren; 6) Keegan Bradley / Sergio Garcia / Martin Kaymer; 9) Dylan Frittelli / Scott Piercy; 11) Peter Uihlein; 12) John Peterson / Justin Thomas; 14) Gary Woodland; 15) Kevin Kisner / Adam Scott; 17) J.J. Henry / Patton Kizzire; 19) Kiradech Aphibarnrat / Chesson Hadley / Hudson Swafford.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Justin Thomas; 2) Jason Dufner; 3) Peter Malnati; 4) Tiger Woods; 5) Tyrrell Hatton; 6) Alex Noren; 7) Wesley Bryan; 8) Rafa Cabrera-Bello / Rickie Fowler / Tommy Fleetwood / Sergio Garcia; 12) Padraig Harrington; 13) Austin Cook; 14) David Lingmerth / Bernd Wiesberger; 17) Brian Gay / Patton Kizzire; 19) Daniel Berger / Louis Oosthuizen / Ollie Schniederjans.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Fowler 16/1; 2016: Scott 20/1; 2015: Harrington 400/1; 2014: Henley 300/1; 2013: Thompson 300/1; 2012: McIlroy 9/1; 2011: Sabbatini 80/1; 2010: Villegas 30/1; Average: 85/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 144/1.

Historical Weather:

2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 79. Wind NNW 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind NNE 7-14 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 85. Wind SSE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 81. Wind NNE 15-20 mph.

2016: Thursday: Sunny and windy, with sustained winds of 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph. High of 70 degrees. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 70 degrees. Wind NW 12-22 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 70 degrees. Wind N 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 74 degrees. Wind E 10-18 mph.

2015: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 86. Wind WSW at 15-25 mph. Friday: Cloudy, with rain throughout the day. High of 73 with NNE wind at 10-20 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with severe wind and thunderstorms throughout the day. High of 73, with variable winds peaking at 60 mph. Sunday: Play resumed at 7 a.m. Partly cloudy and breezy, with a high of 79. Wind E at 15-25 mph. The third round concluded at 3:59 p.m. Sunday. The final round concluded at 12:01 p.m. Temperatures reached the lower-80s, with E wind at 8-15 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, is here. This part of Florida hasn’t seen significant rainfall since the 23rd January, so I’m expecting a course which plays firm and fast unlike the past 2 renewals. There maybe the odd shower, with Saturday morning most likely, but no serious rainfall is expected before or during the tournament. Wind-wise we should see 15-20 mph winds, gusting 25mph off of the Atlantic across Thursday to Saturday. Winds will abate for Sunday, although come-from-behind victories here are a rarity.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 8 winners of the Honda Classic since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Rickie Fowler (-12). 304 yards (12th), 67.9% fairways (17th), 66.7% greens in regulation (16th), 32’6″ proximity to hole (10th), 66.7 % scrambling (9th), 1.67 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2016, Adam Scott (-9). 306 yards (7th), 69.6% fairways (10th), 76.4% greens in regulation (1st), 29’5″ proximity to hole (1st), 70.6 % scrambling (6th), 1.76 putts per GIR (28th).
• 2015, Padraig Harrington (-6). 293 yards (10th), 53.6% fairways (52nd), 63.9% greens in regulation (25th), 30’3″ proximity to hole (2nd), 69.2 % scrambling (6th), 1.67 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2014, Russell Henley (-8). 298 yards (10th), 60.7% fairways (33rd), 65.3% greens in regulation (30th), 36’0″ proximity to hole (40th), 72.0 % scrambling (9th), 1.74 putts per GIR (22nd).
• 2013, Michael Thompson (-9). 280 yards (53rd), 71.4% fairways (9th), 66.7% greens in regulation (9th), 37’0″ proximity to hole (34th), 58.3% scrambling (36th), 1.71 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2012, Rory McIlroy (-12). 298 yards (8th), 60.7% fairways (36th), 66.7% greens in regulation (11th), 37’0″ proximity to hole (35th), 79.2% scrambling (1st), 1.75 putts per GIR (25th).
• 2011, Rory Sabbatini (-9). 286 yards (23rd), 53.6% fairways (57th), 65.3% greens in regulation (24th), 38’3″ proximity to hole (49th), 76.0% scrambling (1st), 1.77 putts per GIR (19th).
• 2010, Camilo Villegas (-13). 290 yards (16th), 62.5% fairways (23rd), 73.6% greens in regulation (2nd), 31’3″ proximity to hole (7th), 52.6% scrambling (37th), 1.66 putts per GIR (2nd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 17th, Driving Accuracy: 29th, Greens in Regulation: 15th, Proximity to Hole: 22nd, Scrambling: 13th, Putting Average 15th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the Champions Course at PGA National sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Rickie Fowler: “I love it that it’s a ball-striker’s golf course. You’ve got to drive the ball well to give yourself an opportunity to get a ball close on the greens. Yeah, putting can save you, but you’ve got to be solid tee-to-green here. I feel like it brings out some of the guys that are hitting the ball the best that week. I don’t like all the water. I’ve got to try and stay away from that. No, it’s a good test of golf here. Like I said, you’ve got to be on point tee-to-green. You can’t fake it around here. It’s a good test, and especially when we get the kind of standard 10- to 20-mile-an-hour winds.“

Adam Scott: “Yeah, it just always seems to blow around here no matter what direction. And always plays tough, even with the amount of rain in the last couple days, it’s not easy to get the ball if good spots out there when it’s blowing this hard. I thought there were some pretty challenging pins out there, as well, in back corners of greens that made it tougher, because it made it quite long, a few of those holes. Yeah, I played really great today tee-to-green. It was exactly what you want to do around this kind of golf course, in a little bit of wind; and also in the afternoon when the greens are just not quite as smooth playing 7:45 in the morning. So much can happen, especially at a golf course like this. There’s trouble waiting on every misjudgement or poor swing. I’m just going to try and play that solid round of golf and give myself as many opportunities as I can.“

Padraig Harrington: “On a windy day, if things are going well for you, you do tend to be able to make a few birdies coming home. If you’re a couple over par early on, you don’t see any way out, but thankfully as I said, got a decent start which is so important. There’s a lot of tough shots, a lot of tough tee shots. A couple of tee shots that you’re really under pressure to hit the fairway in a strong wind. You just have to man up and hit the shots, that’s it. We are going to hit a few bad ones but you’ve just got to stand there and try to hit the right shot at the right time and accept your fate.“

Russell Henley: “I think it might have something to do with getting back to the bermudagrass. I feel like whenever I play Riviera, I’m uncomfortable. I’ve made the cut one time there of the three times. I love the course. I love the atmosphere. I want to play well there obviously. But I’m just not super comfortable on that course yet. But you know, those West Coast tournaments can be brutal. I feel like those greens are really hard to putt on, and they are not easy courses. Torrey Pines is not easy, and I’d say Pebble with the weather, usually predicts what the scores are going to be. When I played it last year, it was really tough. I think those courses are just ones I’m still trying to get comfortable on, and then when I come over here to some bermudagrass, I look down and feel like it’s what I’ve been doing my whole life. Maybe I just get a little bit comfortable. That’s the best explanation I have for you.“

Ben Crane: “This is one of the toughest golf courses we play all year. It’s in perfect shape but it’s so nice to get to these Bermuda greens because the ball just stays on line. But I played great today. Made a lot of birdies, and you’re going to have to make a lot of birdies on this golf course in order to score because you’re going to make some bogeys. You’re going to drive the ball in the rough and if you don’t get the ball up and down from a hundred yards you’re going to make bogey. It’s a great test of golf. I know a lot of guys really love this golf course.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 Honda Classic winners:

• 2017 – Rickie Fowler: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – Padraig Harrington: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2014 – Russell Henley: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2013 – Michael Thompson: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Rory Sabbatini: Round 1: 20th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Camilo Villegas: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Rickie Fowler: 4th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/36th Abu/3rd World Challenge.
• Adam Scott: 2nd Riviera/56th Waialae/10th World Challenge/2nd Aus Open.
• Padraig Harrington: 56th Riviera/MC Pebble/MC Torrey/MC TPC Scottsdale.
• Russell Henley: MC Riviera/52nd Pebble/MC TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey.
• Michael Thompson: MC Riviera/MC TPC Scottsdale/78th Torrey/MC Waialae.
• Rory McIlroy: 2nd WMP/5th Dubai/2nd Abu Dhabi.
• Rory Sabbatini: 5th El Camaleon/MC Riviera/15th Pebble/22nd TPC Scottsdale.
• Camilo Villegas: 8th Phoenix/3rd WMP/9th Qatar/19th Abu Dhabi.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Bryan / Gribble – Both AM -6/64 – 100/1 & 200/1.
• 2016 – Garcia / M Thompson – Both PM -5/65.
• 2015 – Herman – AM -5/65.
• 2014 – McIlroy PM -7/63.
• 2013 – Villegas – PM -6/64.
• 2012 – Love III – AM -6/64.
• 2011 – Levin – AM -3/67.
• 2010 – Connell – PM -5/65.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 6 – Tiger Woods
• 4 – Jim Furyk, Patrick Reed.
• 3 – Brian Gay, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Camilo Villegas.
• 2 – Daniel Berger, Ben Crane, Luke Donald, Jason Dufner, Matt Every, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Fabian Gomez, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk, Ryan Palmer, Adam Scott, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker.
• 1 – Ryan Armour, Charlie Beljan, Keegan Bradley, Wesley Bryan, Austin Cook, Harris English, Robert Garrigus, Retief Goosen, Cody Gribble, Padraig Harrington, J.B. Holmes, Mac Hughes, Martin Kaymer, Kevin Kisner, Patton Kizzire, Peter Malnati, Graeme McDowell, Grayson Murray, Scott Piercy, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Stallings, Robert Streb, Brian Stuard, Hudson Swafford, Michael Thompson, Jhonattan Vegas, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.

The Honda Classic has been a case of feast or famine for short price backers here since 2010. Padraig Harrington, Russell Henley, Michael Thompson and Rory Sabbatini have won the Honda Classic at 400/1, 300/1, 300/1 and 80/1 respectively in 4 of the past 8 renewals. But conversely Camilo Villegas (30/1), Rory McIlroy (9/1), Adam Scott (20/1) and Rickie Fowler (18/1) have been elite winners over the same time span. It’s worth noting that McIlroy and Villegas won at a time when the World Match Play Championship was played the week before this tournament and both arrived in Florida in great nick after strong efforts in Arizona. Adam Scott, on the other hand, arrived in hot form directly from Los Angeles where he’d played very nicely in finishing runner-up to Bubba Watson. Rickie Fowler had last been seen at TPC Scottsdale where he had finished 4th, powered by a fast finishing -6/65.

With course and conditions at PGA National notoriously difficult, it’s no real surprise therefore to see that Rickie Fowler (10th, 2013 and 2nd, 2014), Adam Scott (4th, 2015 and 9th, 2014), Padraig Harrington (3 top-5 finishes across 2000, 2006 & 2012), Russell Henley (16th, 2010 as an amateur), Michael Thompson (2nd, 2012), Rory McIlroy (1st, 2011) and Camilo Villegas (9th, 2008) all had a U.S. Open pedigree prior to capturing the title here. This is a very specialised event.

My selections are as follows: