The Masters Longshots 2021

With so much emphasis – and rightly so – around a number of key players at the top of the market, there are a few names hovering around the 3-figure mark that are quite capable of getting in the mix. Steve Bamford has backed one of the most prominent players in that bracket, Matt Wallace, who played very nicely last week in Texas; Jason Kokrak and Christiaan Bezuidenhout both hold appeal, however I’ve opted for Matt Kuchar who’s got a quietly impressive record here at Augusta National.

The soft conditions in November and some poor incoming form led to Kooch missing the cut for the first time in 11 attempts at The Masters, however prior to that we can count 4 top-8 finishes and a further 5 top-30 finishes from 10 starts on a track that he understands far more than many, and another entry on that top-8 stat here this week would be ideal for this bet.

Overall firmer conditions to start the event and a wet and breezy Friday push things in the direction of a player like Kuchar who’s not the longest off the tee, and with a further 8 top-10 finishes at Majors over the years, he’s the type who can hang around on elite leaderboards while others crumble under the pressure.

Professional golfers come in different shapes and sizes, plus they have unique MOs when it comes to signalling impending success. Some build form slowly before peaking, whereas others have 1- or 2-week bursts of brilliance; Matt is definitely of the former variety and incoming finishes of 3/12 over the past fortnight at the WGC Dell Match Play and Valero Texas Open are worthy of more than a small note.

The 42 year-old described the state of his game in positive fashion in Austin a week ago, “I’m so much more excited about my game that be than I’ve within earlier this year. This year’s been a struggle, but thankfully things have turned a corner, put in some good work with Chris O’Connell, really starting to feel good about my game…I’m as pleased as I’ve been in a long time. I feel like I kind of can step up and know where the ball’s going again. My misses aren’t near as bad as they were the last few months and when your misses are in play, you got a chance to shoot some decent scores.”

With positivity and momentum flowing through his game, I can see Matt rewarding each-way backers here this week. RESULT: MC

A mixed bag weather-wise will require some versatility this week should the forecast be correct. One player perhaps better equipped than many others to adapt to the conditions is England’s Danny Willett who will have played in every conceivable type of weather during his formative golfing years in Sheffield.

Firm conditions are expected to prevail at the start of the event, the first time we’ll have seen Augusta without a large element of softness since Danny himself won here back in 2016. Friday looks wet at this stage with winds in the 20-25mph region, which again should favour the more hardy types, before a more benign and scoreable weekend awaits those who can navigate safely to that point.

Fact is, since earning his Green Jacket 5 years ago, the 33 year-old has increasingly focussed on peaking for the bigger events that he plays. Wins at the European Tour’s season-ending DP World Tour Championship in 2018, where he beat 2018 Masters champion Patrick Reed by 2 strokes, was impressive; as was his most recent victory at Wentworth in 2019 where he beat Jon Rahm by 3 strokes at Rolex Series level. A second career 6^th-place finish at The Open Championship was sandwiched between those two successes and he arrives here under-the-radar after a low-key missed cut in at TPC San Antonio last week.

Let’s be honest, the Valero Texas Open was never going to be a key focus for Danny, so a couple of days of loosening up ahead of this week’s main event was no bad thing; instead I’m more interested in some of the positive signs from his two outings prior to that.

31^st at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was hampered only by a final round 77, yet his SG Tee to Green performance was his best effort since last July. 8^th overall at the Corales Championship featured a 5^th place ranking for Greens In Regulations – a positive pointer that his iron game is in good shape ahead of this week’s task where more of the same will undoubtedly be required. RESULT: MC

From the point of qualification, CT Pan had to wait a record 571 days to finally tee it up at Augusta in November, however it was undoubtedly worth the wait with his tie for 7^th marking a massive Major personal best on his Masters debut. Course form/current form students will undoubtedly spot that the 29 year-old bounced back to form on his last start at the Honda Classic a fortnight ago and at the price on offer I’ll happily play him with a speculative stake.

The victory that earned the Taiwan man his start here in November was his first success on the PGA Tour – at the RBC Heritage – and came at a compatible 12-under total, similar to what we may expect most normal years here.

Two further wins on the PGA Tour of Canada and success at the Asian Games in 2014 as an amateur singled Pan out as a star in the making and more wins are quite possible at PGA Tour level or beyond with 5 top-5 finishes at that level to his name already, including his last outing at PGA National where he was upbeat about his performance, “I feel that I’m improving every day, every week. It’s just a matter of time that I put everything together to get it going to shoot four good rounds out there, and definitely this week I think I did that and am very proud of it.”

65 on Saturday at PGA National was the best round of the day and 5^th for Greens In Regulation overall that week is a useful pointer coming into this week’s task. 9^th for SG Putting that week was Pan’s best performance with the flat stick since last October and he’s got to feel comfortable and confident of another strong performance this week given how well he took to Augusta National in the autumn, having never played the course until the Monday that week. RESULT: MC