The Masters Longshots 2022

Recency bias has seen a number of players who’ve performed well over the past week or two cut significantly in price, and quite rightly so in many instances. A lack of sparkling results thus far in 2022 has seen the price of Jason Kokrak drift out to 3 figures and beyond for this though, despite the 36 year-old still residing inside the magical OWGR top-30 if we’re to interpret the incoming ranking of the past 12 winners here as a good barometer of potential success.

That lofty position on the world stage is no fluke given that he’s won 3 of his last 37 solo starts globally, holding off the likes of Xander Schauffele (CJ Cup), Jordan Spieth (Charles Schwab Challenge) and Scottie Scheffler (HP Houston Open) into the bargain. Those last 2 wins came at -14 and -10 respectively, so he’s already proven himself capable of performing in this kind of winning score region, and for me it’s only a matter of time before he improves on a set of solid if unspectacular career Major efforts thus far.

Averaging over 304 yards from off the tee is a good starting point for Kokrak’s justification this week on a long course that’s likely to play longer still, at least for the first day or two until the technology and westerly wind combine to dry out the course. Going for the Green ranks of 27^th this season and 26^th last shows the right kind of aggressive mindset on the par-5s here at Augusta, and his natural draw would seem to be an advantage given what we’ve learned here over the years.

A disappointing-looking ANGC record of MC/49 can be picked apart a little with his debut effort coming just 2 starts after his breakthrough win at the CJ Cup in scoreable conditions, which don’t necessarily play to the Ohio man’s strengths; 8^th after day 1 last year when it was far tougher is a better sign in my view. Although he couldn’t maintain that level for all 4 rounds 12 months ago, the experience should have done him good and with 2 wins since, plus a pairs success with Kevin Na at the QBE shootout in December, Jason is a much more accomplished player nowadays. RESULT: T14

I made an initial case for Luke List on our Masters research podcast, and although the fanciest of Exchange prices are now gone, the more sensible approach is probably to accept the each-way price on offer and hope that the Augusta resident can sneak into the top 8 come Sunday evening.

The excitement following the 37 year-old’s fast start last week in Texas quickly abated as he followed up an opening round of 68, having led early on, with non-descript rounds of 74, 71 and 73 to finish in a tie for 53^rd. Nothing to write home about after all despite his bright start I agree, yet there’s plenty to like about his chances this week.

Firstly there’s his breakthrough win at Torrey Pines in January to consider. Patrick Reed won the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open there; Bubba Watson’s a Torrey winner, as is Phil Mickelson, twice; then there’s Tiger Woods, whose record in San Diego is the stuff of legend. All Masters champions of course, providing the clearest of form links between the two tracks.

Course form is distant for List, with a tie for 33^rd way back in 2005 his only competitive result to date, yet that effort as an amateur is still far better than many will ever boast in their careers, and the fact that he’ll be sleeping in his own bed this week with plenty of family and friends supporting him can’t be ignored.

What also can’t be ignored are Luke’s raw credentials when it comes to game shape for Augusta National. Checking the key factors in Steve Bamford’s excellent trends article, we find that he ranks 15^th for the season in terms of Distance to Apex, 12^th for Going for the Green, 24^th for SG Approach and 35^th for Par 4 Birdie or Better. That’s pretty much a full house of upper-tier rankings in my book and I’m excited about his chances this week. RESULT: MC

Finally I’m taking a chance on the talented Aussie Lucas Herbert who’s well off the bookies’ radar here this week, despite ticking a lot of boxes as far as I’m concerned.

Referring back again to our research podcast, I mentioned that Christiaan Bezuidenhout ranks highly for SG Putting on Bentgrass greens when results from both Tours are combined since 2019; sitting just below the South African, and averaging a good 15 yards more off the tee which won’t hurt at a soggy AGNC, we find Lucas sitting 4^th in this field on that count.

Other long game tangibles include 6^th for Distance to Apex and 25^th for Going for the Green – Greens Hit for the season to date, neither of which will hurt this week in my view.

The 26 year-old’s CV contains some interesting points worth exploring. His 2020 breakthrough on the then European Tour came at the Dubai Desert Classic, an event which preceded both Danny Willett and Sergio Garcia’s wins here, both in more testing renewals. Tiger Woods is twice a winner at the Emirates, as is Jose Marie Olazabal; Mark O’Meara won there in 2004, Fred Couples in 1995 and Seve in 1992 – all received the Green Jacket of course.

Success at the Irish Open the following July at Mount Juliet proved that his Dubai success was no fluke, and he went a step further by securing his maiden PGA Tour title at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in October, holding off Danny Lee and former Masters champion Patrick Reed in tricky, windy conditions.

The elephant in the room of course is his lack of experience around these parts, and the oft-cited Fuzzy Zoeller stat for debutants here at Augusta. I get that of course, however at the price on offer an each-way payout would be a great result. Perhaps a renewal which promises mixed conditions as the week progresses and challenging cross-winds on many holes will produce a surprise. We shall see. RESULT: MC