The Masters Longshots 2025

Now I do tend to start my outsiders column with 100/1 being the lower limit, however I cannot let Patrick Reed go unbacked and having been a 3-figure price in the ante-post markets, he’s generally an 80/1 shot or shorter at the time of writing. Anyway, let’s take the fact that he’s been backed by the shrewdies as a positive.

Reed as we know is a former Masters champion, winning here at Augusta in 2018 by a stroke over Rickie Fowler, adding to what was a total of 8 regular PGA Tour titles before he decided to join LIV back in 2022. The wins dried up  after his move despite some near misses, until that is he won the Hong Kong Open last November on the Asian Tour, firing a third round 59 into the bargain. 2^nd in Macau last month, again on the Asian Tour, suggested he was finding his game once again, and he led by two after 18 holes last week at Doral on the LIV circuit, eventually finishing 7^th. Put simply, he’s playing some decent golf right now.

Short game wizardry and top-class putting tends to be the formula when Reed wins, however there have been some interesting spikes in his approach play which caught my eye and ultimately get him the nod this week. Of course we’re talking basic stats when looking at LIV and the Asian Tour, however a field-leading 87.5% of greens hit in regulation at that aforementioned victory at Fanling last year was followed by 86.1% the week after at Doha, which again was the best on show. 90.3% on the same count when narrowly missing out in Macau suggests that the irons are working well again, and although he wasn’t quite as prolific last week in Miami, his trademark performance on and around the greens was strong once again.

As ever in this game, we need the 34 year-old to piece it all together here this week to contend, however in Ryder Cup year and with limited opportunities to accrue points during the regular season, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see ‘Captain America’ towards the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. RESULT: 3rd

The forlorn figure of J.J. Spaun trudging off of the 18^th hole at TPC Sawgrass sticks in the mind, having not got remotely close to troubling Rory McIlroy on the Monday play-off for this year’s Players Championship. The 34 year-old should, however, take plenty of heart from his overall performance in such a classy field, and that might just spark a personal best Major performance at some point in 2025.

It could have been very different of course had the Californian made his long birdie putt on the 72^nd hole at Sawgrass, or if Rory had failed to two-putt from all of 73 feet on the last, however for 4 days he was competitive – and not for the first time in 2025.

3^rd at the Sony Open where he led the field for SG Approach and ranked 2^nd for SG Tee to Green was an early clue that Spaun was playing some tidy golf, and he went closer still at PGA National, finishing in a tie for 2^nd behind Joe Highsmith. 9^th for SG Tee to Green was a little down on Hawaii, however 5^th for SG Around the Green was positive and is an important factor here at Augusta in my view.

A field-leading SG Tee to Green performance at The Players was backed up again by tidy SG Approach and Around The Green numbers, and although he missed the cut at Houston, I suspect the rest will have done him some good ahead of this week.

23^rd on his only attempt at Augusta National, the numbers he produced that week make interesting reading. Strokes Gained positive on all metrics, he found over 80% of fairways (5^th in the field) which suggests to me that the course suits his eye from off the tee. At 2^nd for SG Approach for the season and 7^th for SG Tee to Green, I think JJ’s game is in the kind of shape where he could threaten an each-way place. RESULT: T50

Finally, I’ll go back to LIV to complete my trio of longer prices and to another former Masters winner, Charl Schwartzel.

2011 was the year in question for the South African where as a 100/1 shot pre-event he closed with four straight birdies to beat Jason Day and Adam Scott by two strokes, and although it might be a little fanciful to expect him to repeat the feat having turned 40 last summer, repeat winners of this event can and do happen.
Schwartzel’s LIV career got off to a flying start, winning the inaugural LIV Golf London event to record his first win globally for over six years. Although he’s not added to that title since, he’s recorded four runner-up finishes including at Leopard Creek in late 2023, LIV Jeddah last March, and more recently in Qatar in December and then again at Doral last week. A joint best-of-the-day 66 to close in Miami wasn’t quite enough to beat eventual winner Marc Leishman, however that was nevertheless an impressive round on a challenging course that should give him some confidence as he heads to Georgia.

Charl’s short game is what’s really caught the eye of late, and as we discussed on the Masters Research Podcast the eventual winner this week is likely to be towards the very top of the Scrambling stats on the week, with most players missing 1 in 3 greens in regulation at the very least. Field-leading Scrambling performances at LIV Jeddah and LIV Adelaide last year, then again last week at LIV Miami – with a number of additional strong performances around the greens during that time – would suggest to me that if he can give himself just a few more chances with his approach play this week then he could finish on the first page of the leaderboard, having twice finished inside the top 10 here since his victory 14 years ago. RESULT: T36