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Congratulations to Francesco Molinari and Justin Rose backers who landed 22/1 and 20/1 wins. On our weekly podcast – why not have a listen and follow – we preached that Wentworth and Colonial Country Club were very similar venues. So it followed that the mature heads of Francesco and Justin took the honours both sides of the Atlantic, with Francesco jumping to 3rd in the European points list for the Ryder Cup. Jon Rahm brought home a full each-way return for this column as the hunt for profit continues this week in Ohio.

On the PGA Tour it’s our first trip to the north of the United States in 2018 and it’s sure to be a real treat as we visit Muirfield Village GC in Ohio for ‘Jack’s Tournament’. The Memorial Tournament is always a highlight of the PGA Tour as its Invitational status, combined with its positioning close to the second Major Championship, guarantees a high class field. 2018 doesn’t disappoint with Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed, Henrik Stenson and 5 times Memorial winner Tiger Woods all in attendance. In all, 11 of the World’s top-16 ranked players are in Dublin, Ohio this week.

Course Guide: Muirfield Village GC continually develops as a golfing test and in its latest guise plays as a 7,392 yard, Par 72. In the past the course has hosted the 1987 Ryder Cup and the 2013 Presidents Cup and is an original Nicklaus design. In the modern game of golf the layout isn’t massively long but, as you’d expect from the pen of an 18-time Major Champion, the format stretches the world’s very best via a combination of attributes: this classical design features tree-lined fairways, 73 bunkers, 11 holes with water in play and over 80 acres of primarily Kentucky bluegrass rough. Severely undulating green complexes are a true work of art and feature, if the weather plays ball, some of the purest Bentgrass with Poa Annua putting surfaces that the PGA Tour traditionally sees each season.

Muirfield Village GC, Dublin, Ohio: Designer: Jack Nicklaus 1974, latest guise established 2014; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,392 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 11; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Kentucky bluegrass with ryegrass/fescue 3″; Greens: 5,000 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 11ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 73.67 (+1.67), Difficulty Rank 6 of 49 courses. 2013: 73.26 (+1.26), Difficulty Rank 6 of 43 courses. 2014: 71.90 (-0.10), Rank 29 of 48 courses. 2015: 71.74 (-0.26), Difficulty Rank 23 of 52 courses. 2016: 70.99 (-1.01), Difficulty Rank 36 of 50 courses. 2017: 72.80 (+0.80), Difficulty Rank 13 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Muirfield Village and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 36 yards wide; 275:35; 300:31; 325:26; 350:30.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• Trinity Forest: 250 yards from the tee: 58 yards wide; 275:54; 300:56; 325:60; 350:57.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:32; 325:29; 350:20.
• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:30; 325:29; 350:28.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:28; 325:27; 350:25.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 30 yards wide; 275:24; 300:21; 325:26; 350:23.
• Golf Club of Houston: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:31; 325:25; 350:28.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:34; 325:39; 350:30.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from tee: 26 yards wide; 275:21; 300:22; 325:24; 350:20.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Jack Nicklaus designs include:

• Valhalla Golf Club – 2014 PGA Championship
• Glen Abbey – RBC Canadian Open – 2008, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2016 and 2017
• Montreaux GCC – Barracuda Championship
• PGA National – Honda Classic
• Sherwood Country Club – Thousand Oaks – World Challenge through 2013
• Annandale Golf Club – Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013
• PGA West – Nicklaus Private – Humana Challenge through 2015
• PGA West – Tournament Course – CareerBuilder Challenge 2016 – 2018

Course Overview: Muirfield Village is undoubtedly a great all-round classical golf test where both ball striking and short game experts can contend with equal frequency when the wind is tranquil. A typical Nicklaus design, each hole gets more difficult further away from the tee so those with consistent approach play this week will be able to access flatter parts of the green complexes close to hole locations. Birdies will be available for those with excellent course navigation, top notch scrambling and naturally a hot putter. A second-shot golf course where those who can find the right layers of the green complexes can make birdies. However don’t ever think of Muirfield Village as a purely resort-style track as this classical design still has teeth for the wayward, poor scramblers and poor putters, so we need to look for those with an all-round game who can hit the ball close, but also scramble and putt well on these Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix greens.

Accessing the flatter parts of these undulating green complexes is the key. This is how Jordan Spieth described it in an interview back in 2015, “I love putting on greens where you have to have imagination, you have to play these ridges, speed control is so vital. And then I enjoy the ball striking part of this course where these pins are located normally three times. They’re located pretty close to each other, and if you hit a really good tee shot, you’re set up to feed into these holes.“

So although fairways are relatively easy to find, indiscriminate bombing from the tee tends to be rejected by this brilliant classical design. Greens proved 13th hardest to hit on the Tour last season and a Rough Proximity to Hole rank of 11th hardest also highlights that taking total liberties from the tee is not a winning strategy around here. The course ranked 2nd hardest for Scrambling in 2017 – so look for players who are trending in terms of strokes gained approach and around the greens. However the real test at Jack’s Place is a set of tough par-3s which proved the most difficult on Tour last season, allied to the ability to regularly get approach shots close to pin locations which unlocks scoring opportunities.

It’s worth highlighting that the back nine at Muirfield Village is a far tougher proposition than the front nine. The closing 3 holes make for one of the toughest closing stretches on the PGA Tour with a 201 yard par-3, a 478 yard par-4 and another par-4 this time at 484 yards, leaving little room for error, especially as the 2015 course renovation added a new bunker complex now on the right-hand side of the fairway in the landing area between 275 and 350 yards. Undoubtedly holes 16-18 always prove to be a key section of the course where dreams can be made or shattered.

Winners: 2017: Jason Dufner (-13); 2016: William McGirt (-15); 2015: David Lingmerth (-15); 2014: Hideki Matsuyama (-13); 2013: Matt Kuchar (-12); 2012: Tiger Woods (-8); 2011: Steve Stricker (-16); 2010: Justin Rose (-18).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Emiliano Grillo, Henrik Stenson, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson and Matt Kuchar.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the Corales Championship and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Ryan Armour / Henrik Stenson; 3) Jim Furyk; 4) Brian Gay / Ryan Moore; 6) Ted Potter Jnr / Kyle Stanley; 8) Emiliano Grillo; 9) Alex Cejka / Adam Hadwin / Brian Stuard; 12) Kevin Streelman; 13) C.T. Pan / Justin Rose / Shubhankar Sharma; 16) Bryson DeChambeau; 17) K.J. Choi; 18) Chris Kirk / Pat Perez; 20) Satoshi Kodaira.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Henrik Stenson; 2) Ryan Moore; 3) Dustin Johnson; 4) Adam Scott; 5) Joaquin Niemann; 6) Jordan Spieth; 7) Bryson DeChambeau; 8) Branden Grace; 9) Kyle Stanley / Tiger Woods; 11) Chris Kirk; 12) Justin Rose / Bubba Watson; 14) Patrick Reed; 15) Adam Hadwin / Keith Mitchell; 17) Stewart Cink; 18) Shane Lowry; 19) Luke List; 20) Beau Hossler / Rory McIlroy / J.J. Spaun.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Phil Mickelson; 2) Charl Schwartzel; 3) Kiradech Aphibarnrat / Jason Day / Billy Horschel; 6) Chesson Hadley / Daniel Summerhays; 8) Marc Leishman; 9) Si Woo Kim; 10) Julian Suri / Aaron Wise; 12) Emiliano Grillo; 13) Rickie Fowler / Charley Hoffman; 15) Justin Rose; 16) Rory McIlroy; 17) Branden Grace; 18) Jamie Lovemark / Kevin Na; 20) Ollie Schniederjans.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Dufner 66/1; 2016: McGirt 200/1; 2015: Lingmerth 500/1; 2014: Matsuyama 66/1; 2013: Kuchar 22/1; 2012: Woods 16/1; 2011: Stricker 28/1; 2010: Rose 80/1. Average: 122/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 208/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Thursday: Mostly sunny skies in the morning became partly cloudy in the afternoon with a high of 77. Wind W 8-16 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 80. Wind WNW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny skies with a high of 84. Wind WNW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind WSW 15-25 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies with a high of 82. Wind W at 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy skies with a high of 82. Wind N/NW at 8-12 mph. Saturday: Cloudy skies and periods of light rain with a high in the mid-70s. Wind S/SE at 6-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 79. Wind W/SW at 15-25 mph.
• 2015: Weather: Thursday: Cloudy, but drier in the afternoon, with highs reaching only into the lower 60s. North wind at 10-20 mph. A total of 1.3 inches of rain fell overnight and into the morning. Friday: Overcast, with intermittent rain throughout the day. High of 76, with N wind at 7-12 mph. Saturday: Overcast, with a high of 76. Wind SE at 15-25 mph. Sunday: Due to the likeliness of inclement weather, final-round tee times were between 7-9 a.m. Cloudy with rain most of the day and a high of 79. Wind SSW at 10-20 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Dublin, Ohio, is here. Thunderstorms look like they’ll impact the golf course across both the Wednesday Pro-Am and the opening Thursday of play. We’re guessing in terms of severity and duration, but early forecasts across multiple weather sites including the PGA Tour itself suggests that there will be plenty of precipitation. The tournament therefore could see a suspension of play on Thursday of some sorts and it’s more than likely we are in for a very soft course over the first 36 holes of play at the very least. Friday sees humid conditions in play, but fresher weather arrives for Saturday and Saturday with temperatures up to 22 degrees Celsius. With only light breezes across the full tournament, it’s likely the course will yield good scoring.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 8 winners of this event since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Jason Dufner (-13). 299 yards (29th), 73.2% fairways (7th), 75.0% greens in regulation (1st), 29’9″ proximity to hole (6th), 55.6 % scrambling (30th), 1.67 putts per GIR (7th).
• 2016, William McGirt (-15). 285 yards (50th), 67.9% fairways (39th), 73.6% greens in regulation (7th), proximity to hole 26’10” (5th), 73.7 % scrambling (6th), 1.74 putts per GIR (55th).
• 2015, David Lingmerth (-15). 280 yards (61st), 76.8% fairways (11th), 68.1% greens in regulation (16th), proximity to hole 29’2″ (21st), 69.6 % scrambling (9th), 1.59 putts per GIR (7th).
• 2014, Hideki Matsuyama (-13). 293 yards (39th), 75.0% fairways (11th), 66.7% greens in regulation (22nd), proximity to hole 25’8″ (1st), 58.3 % scrambling (20th), 1.60 putts per GIR (7th).
• 2013, Matt Kuchar (-12). 283 yards (38th), 69.6% fairways (37th), 75.0% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 32’2″ (31st), 61.1% scrambling (18th), 1.74 putts per GIR (23rd).
• 2012, Tiger Woods (-9). 287 yards (18th), 76.8% fairways (14th), 73.6% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 31’3″ (20th), 57.9% scrambling (9th), 1.75 putts per GIR (25th).
• 2011, Steve Stricker (-16). 295 yards (35th), 80.4% fairways (3rd), 65.3% greens in regulation (30th), proximity to hole 26’9″ (2nd), 64.0% scrambling (3rd), 1.60 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2010, Justin Rose (-18). 263 yards (55th), 82.1% fairways (10th), 73.6% greens in regulation (13th), proximity to hole 27’6″ (13th), 68.4% scrambling (5th), 1.59 putts per GIR (1st).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 41st, Driving Accuracy: 17th, Greens in Regulation: 11th, Proximity to Hole: 12th, Scrambling: 13th, Putting Average 16th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how Muirfield Village sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Jason Dufner (2017): “This is a difficult golf course. The wind can be tricky at times. I’m hoping we’ll have some calmer conditions. But just being underneath the hole is a big thing out here. I find myself – when I play good rounds, I seem to be putting uphill all week. I’m struggling from above the hole. So position into the greens is important. Yeah, these are by far probably the best greens that we play on all year, from the standpoint of consistency on speed from green to green. When I step on 7th green I feel like it’s the same speed as the 14th green or the 17th green. And then also just the consistency of the roll, like you said. You feel like you get a really pure roll. If you start in on your line and your read is right you’re probably going to be holing a lot of putts. And I think they get as fast as any that we play. There’s a lot of pitch, a lot of undulation out there on these greens. You get above the hole you’re just breathing on them when they’re moving pretty good.“

William McGirt (2016): “The one thing that I’ve learned, I think this was my fourth time playing here, I think. The biggest thing I’ve learned is where you can and cannot miss it. Most of the week, I missed it in the proper spot and left myself a chance to get it up and down. I mean, that’s the whole key around here is you can’t go attacking pins. Like the pin yesterday on 18. I mean, I’m standing out there in the fairway knowing that, if I hit 7 iron and catch any gust at all and it lands on the front, it’s coming 30 yards back down the fairway, but I’m thinking 6 could potentially go in that back bunker. And I kind of chickened out in the end, but I knew the right bunker was fine. So I kind of chickened out in the end and fanned it over there and got it up and down.“

Jordan Spieth (2015): “A couple of things specifically about the course, the greens are arguably tied for first or second only to Augusta National as far as speed and how pure they are consistently each year. I love putting on greens where you have to have imagination, you have to play these ridges, speed control is so vital. And then I enjoy the ball striking part of this course where these pins are located normally three times. They’re located pretty close to each other, and if you hit a really good tee shot, you’re set up to feed into these holes. You can have really short birdie putts and you’ll see some eagles out here, given that the greens are so fast, they’ll just speed off the side and roll down. But if you get yourself out of position off the tee, and all of a sudden you’re left you can’t really take much of a chance because then you get above the hole and you’re out of it. So premium on positioning off the tee, and then imagination putting. And I enjoy those aspects of Muirfield.“

Rickie Fowler (2015): “Yeah, most of the driving areas are generous in a way. There are some tight holes where you do have to be careful. But for the most part, it’s a second shot golf course. You have to have control of your golf ball coming to these greens, and you have to be able to put yourself on the right side of the hole on the right section of the green, which can definitely make a difference. It’s a three putt when you’re in the wrong spot. So having that control, coming from the fairway, it could be the proper side of the fairway, too, if the fairway is that big. But having to come in from the right side to change the angle, it can turn it into a little bit of a tighter hole. But it is definitely a second shot golf course. And you’re rewarded with good shots, but it will pick you apart if you’re off your numbers or missing your lines.“

Matt Kuchar (2014): “Justin Rose. Kenny Perry. K.J. There’s not a whole lot of similarities amongst that crew. I mean, I think this course demands you to do everything well. These greens seem to get every bit as fast as Augusta National’s. You have to be on your game. And I think when greens are fast, it’s not so much a premium on your putting, but your iron shots is a real premium and positioning your iron shots. Driving is certainly a premium here. You don’t have to hit a lot of drivers. The longer guys, particularly, don’t have to hit a lot of drivers. I tend to hit more than most. I tend to challenge some of the shorter holes knowing those are opportunities for me to turn into real birdieable holes and know that my driving is one of my strengths, so I tend to challenge those a little more than most. I think in order to do well, you just have to have all parts of your game working well.“

Bubba Watson (2014): “The course has a major feel, it’s because of the fact that it’s so difficult. It’s an approach shot golf course, I guess you’d say. The fairways are generous. Even I hit a lot of fairways here. So it’s all about your iron shots. It’s all about controlling your distance. It’s all about your mental game, because the par 3s, these have to be the most difficult par 3s on any course, all four of these put together. So it’s all about your approach shots into the greens and approach shots on the par 3s. So the last finishing stretch is you’re going to have a difficult shot over the water on 16, which is one of the toughest holes I’ve ever seen in my life, and 17 you’re going to have tough iron shot. And 18 now, the length, make it even tougher with that green. And so it’s all about your mental focus and what you can do. That’s what we all want. We always feel like if you focus better than the other guys and you think your ability is good enough, you’re going to be there in the end. We want it as tough as possible, or I want it tough as possible so that it weeds out some of the guys that aren’t thinking positive.“

Phil Mickelson (2014): “Gotta drive the ball well here. It’s hard to recover from here. And your short irons need to be sharp because you’ve got to make a lot of birdies here. But then you also have to have your long irons and hybrids strong because you’re hitting those into the par 5s. And the greens are so pure and around the hole there’s not a lot of movement that you can really make some putts.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 winners:

• 2017 – Jason Dufner: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2016 – William McGirt: Round 1: 44th, Round 2: 22nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – David Lingmerth: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2014 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 21st, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 3rd
• 2013 – Matt Kuchar: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.
• 2011 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 4th.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Jason Dufner: MC Colonial/12th TPC4S/60th Sawgrass/5th TPC Louisiana.
• William McGirt: 47th Colonial/43rd Sawgrass/17th Quail/37th TPC San Antonio.
• David Lingmerth: MC TPC4S/33rd Colonial/MC Quail/MC TPC Louisiana.
• Hideki Matsuyama: 10th Colonial/23rd TPC Sawgrass/38th Quail/MC Heritage.
• Matt Kuchar: 2nd Colonial/33rd TPC4S/48th TPC Sawgrass/35th Heritage.
• Tiger Woods: 40th TPC Sawgrass/MC Quail/40th Augusta/1st Bay Hill.
• Steve Stricker: 12th TPC Sawgrass/13th TPC Louisiana/11th Augusta/4th Houston.
• Justin Rose: 71st Colonial/10th Wentworth/MC TPC Sawgrass/43rd TPC Louisiana.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Dufner / Lingmerth – AM/PM Split -7/65 – 55/1 & 90/1.
• 2016 – D Johnson – AM -8/64.
• 2015 – Matsuyama / Van Pelt – Both PM -8/64.
• 2014 – McIlroy – PM -9/63.
• 2013 – Schwartzel – AM -7/65.
• 2012 – Stallings – PM -6/66.
• 2011 – McIlroy / Riley – AM/PM Split -6/66.
• 2010 – Fowler / Rose – AM/PM Split -7/65.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 8 – Dustin Johnson.
• 4 – Jason Day, Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods.
• 3 – Rory McIlroy.
• 2 – Jason Day, Vijay Singh, Jordan Spieth.
• 1 – Sang-moon Bae, Jonas Blixt, Keegan Bradley, Jason Dufner, Emiliano Grillo, Bill Haas, James Hahn, Billy Horschel, Russell Knox, Matt Kuchar, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, William McGirt, Sean O’Hair, Carl Pettersson, Ted Potter Jnr, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Chris Stroud, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.

The Memorial Tournament is very similar in stature and Tour scheduling placement to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A number of top players use Bay Hill in March as their competitive warm-up for The Masters and the same point is true for Muirfield Village and the U.S. Open which is now only a fortnight away. Tie tournament scheduling in with the Jack Nicklaus links, plus the classical nature of this course, and it’s hardly surprising the best players feature year-in, year-out here at Muirfield Village.

The Memorial is often a tournament where you don’t want to hit the front too early, but undoubtedly quality players have generally topped the leaderboard come close of play on Sunday. Tiger’s wins in 2009 and 2012 came at 3/1 and 16/1 respectively. Justin Rose’s first PGA Tour victory in 2010 came at 80/1 a fortnight after a 10th place finish at Wentworth. Steve Stricker won at 28/1 in 2011. Matt Kuchar’s and Hideki Matsuyama’s victories here in 2013 and 2014 both followed contending performances the week prior at Colonial, with both players being priced at 22/1 and 66/1 respectively. This plethora of sub-100/1 winners is hardly a surprise when you consider that every winner of The Memorial since 2003 up to 2015 had ranked in the OWGR top 75.

But trends in golf betting vary and there have been seismic changes here in Ohio across the past 3 renewals. Nicklaus course specialist David Lingmerth landed his maiden title here in 2015 with inbound form of MC-33-MC-MC-MC. You won’t be surprised to read that the Swede was a 500/1 chance. Fast-forward to 2016 where Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar and Gary Woodland were all in the mix, but eventually it became a shoot-out between Jon Curran (400/1) and William McGirt (250/1) in a playoff, both of whom were chasing maiden PGA Tour titles. World Number 102 McGirt captured his first title since he played the Tarheel Tour in 2007 and came off immediate form of 47-43-17-37. He had though delivered 3 top-9 finishes and a further 2nd in the season prior to winning in Ohio. Last year saw World Number 65 Jason Dufner beat Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar and Justin Thomas to take his 5th PGA Tour victory at 66/1. Jason showed grit and resolve on a fast Sunday golf course, taking on the likes of 54-hole leader Kuchar, Bubba Watson, Thomas and playing partner Rickie Fowler to comfortably win in the end by 3 shots.

My selections are as follows: