The Open FRL Tips 2021

• Open Starts: 1
• Open FRL Best: 54th (2019)
• Open FRL Top-8s: 0
• Last 6 Event FRL Form: 18/1/41/65/90/148
• Tee Time: 1.26pm

Early reports from the course are that it’s relatively soft, as was anticipated with the wet early summer in England coupled with rain over the weekend, and that the rough is particularly thick. Unfortunate bounces from the fairway may be negated due to the lush turf conditions, however there’s still likely to be a premium on keeping your ball in play and that may be exacerbated over any given 18 holes if an accurate player can hit virtually all of the fairways.

Of those in the field with the game to keep the ball in play more than most, Corey Conners makes the most appeal. 12^th on the PGA Tour’s Driving Accuracy statistic for the season to date and 9^th for SG Off the Tee puts him in the very upper reaches of those key statistics; his approach play isn’t too shabby either, ranking 12^th for GIR and 8^th for SG Approach.

Statistics are all well and good though and a player needs to translate that into a score on the course in elite company to reward us here. The Canadian has certainly stepped up in that respect over the past couple of years, winning his maiden PGA Tour title in a 15mph breeze in Texas in 2019 before cementing himself in the OWGR top 50 this year following a series of strong results including 7^th at The Players and 8^th at The Masters.

One thing that’s coincided with his step forward in 2021 has been a marked improvement in Thursday performances. 66 to lead the Arnold Palmer Invitational after day 1 was impressive, as was 67 at the US PGA Championship to sit 2 shots better than anyone else with 18 holes completed. 3^rd at The Players after day 1 is also fast-starting, elite-level form and it’s clear that he’s increasingly comfortable rubbing shoulders with household names.

A missed cut at the US Open and another weekend off in Scotland may put some off this bet, however there was some significant momentum from that effort at Renaissance as he closed with a bogey-free 65 to miss the cut by a stroke, taking just 26 putts on the fescue greens that will feel quite similar to this week’s task. RESULT: T19

• Open Starts: 6
• Open FRL Best: 8th (2019)
• Open FRL Top-8s: 1
• Last 6 Event FRL Form: 111/127/54/1/15/12
• Tee Time: 2.26pm

If you’re a believer in historical trends repeating themselves in golf then read on; if not then skip the next paragraph and start from below there as there’s plenty to like about Russell Henley’s chance for First Round Leader regardless.

Firstly the quirky bit. In 2017, Henley shot 64 to lead The Northern Trust in the PGA Tour Playoffs; his next FRL was at the US Open the following June before shooting 69 to sit 8^th after day 1 at The Open the following month. In 2020, Henley shot 64 to lead The Northern Trust in the PGA Tour Playoffs; his next FRL was at the US Open this June. Spooky, coincidence, irrelevant – delete as applicable, however it peaked my interest nevertheless and perhaps he’ll follow it up with a top-8 here after day 1.

2 Major FRL performances tell us firstly that the American isn’t afraid to post a low score in elite company. In fact, his effort last month at Torrey Pines went further still as Russell sat at the top of the tree until a Sunday 76 put paid to any lingering hopes he may have had that a maiden Major was coming his way, however that’s useful experience and perhaps there’s more to come.

19^th at the Travelers and 11^th last week at the John Deere Classic since that last Major are useful outings and his long game in particular looked on song before jumping on the charter flight from Illinois to prepare for this week’s task.

Low rounds are quite possible with Russell – this is the man who shot 63 three times to win the Sony Open back in 2013, having just stepped up from the 2^nd tier – and a 2.26pm tee time, identical to JB Holmes who led the last Open Championship after 18 holes, could be perfect if the weather is slightly easier in the afternoon. RESULT: T48

• Open Starts: 9
• Open FRL Best: 3rd (2011)
• Open FRL Top-8s: 2
• Last 6 Event FRL Form: 111/98/39/135/21/29
• Tee Time: 10.53am

Finally the longest-priced player of my trio of Thursday hopefuls has the earliest tee time, however by late morning the wind may be a little more consistent, albeit still significant, and without the more significant gusts that might scupper the rounds of a few of the earliest of starters.

Arriving with the momentum of victory last week at the John Deere Classic, Lucas Glover could hit the ground running in conditions that should suit ball-strikers who can deal with the breeze. The 41 year-old should be on the crest of a wave after securing his first win in a decade on Sunday, courtesy of a closing round of 64 that tied the best of the day, and he returns to St George’s where he led heading into the weekend back in 2011.

66 to open his account that week had the Florida resident sitting in 3^rd place after the opening 18 holes, hot on the heels of another quick start the year before at St Andrews where he’d shot 67 to find himself inside the top 10 after the first day.

5^th and 7^th after day 1 in the past at the US Open, the latter of which was in 2009 when he secured his maiden Major title at Bethpage Black, Lucas also led the 2006 US PGA Championship back in 2006 after an opening round of 66.

Long game excellence is Glover’s forte, and that was evident once again last week at TPC Deere Run where he ranked 3^rd for SG Approach and 4^th for SG Tee to Green, however – and whisper it quietly – he’s putting quite nicely of late and has been SG positive with the flat stick for 5 events on the trot, which ultimately translated into a field-leading 24 birdies last week. More of the same on Thursday could see him in a lofty position at the end of play. RESULT: T137