The Open Tips 2023

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The very best players in world golf are being joined at Royal Liverpool Golf Club, Hoylake this week by those who’ve qualified through the many and varied routes, as 156 hopefuls battle to win the Claret Jug and title of Champion Golfer of the Year in what’s sure to be an enthralling 4 days on the Merseyside links.

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With a top-class field comes an intriguing betting market, with Rory McIlroy rating as the best-priced 7/1 favourite at the time of writing following his win in Scotland, followed by the likes of world number 1 Scottie Scheffler (9/1), Masters Champion Jon Rahm (12/1), defending champion Cameron Smith (16/1) and US PGA Champion Brooks Koepka (20/1). As ever, there’s a case to be made for almost all of those near the head of the betting in what looks to be a pretty open affair.

If longshots are more to your taste then check out Steve Bamford’s pick of the triple-digit chances, plus a view on this week’s Barracuda Championship here.

2023 Open Championship Key Bookmaker Promotions

The 2023 Open Championship looks to be the most competitive Major Championship that we have ever seen. Additional each-way place hunters are spoilt for choice, and we’ve never seen so many additional each-way places offered at a Major.

For those of you looking for independent analysis as to who are the best golf betting bookmakers offering the most each-way places in 2023, read our analysis available here.

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 10 Places Each-Way at the 2023 Open

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Royal Liverpool Golf Club, Hoylake, Merseyside, England: Designer: Harry Colt 1895, with Martin Ebert additions 2020; Course Type: Coastal, Links, Medium Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,383 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 0; Fairways: Fescue; Rough: Bentgrass, Fescue, with tall fescue 2″ First Cut; Greens: 6,458 sq.ft average featuring Browntop Bentgrass with Fescue. Course Scoring Average 2014: 72.77 (+0.77), Difficulty Rank 10 of 48 PGA Tour courses.

Course Overview: The Hoylake Links is an original Harry Colt design and will play as a 7,383 yard, Par 71 as the course has been extended by 71 yards since 2014 via a renovation project managed by eminent course designer Martin Ebert. The par change comes at the 10th Hole named Far, which has changed from a par-5 of 532 yards to a par-4 of 507 yards.

A summary of Hoylake in terms of its position within the Open Championship rota would be a fairly straightforward affair, with good play rewarded. It’s a relative flat track with few towering sand dunes. But for what it lacks in topography, Royal Liverpool gains with tall fescue in play on all holes and plenty of Out of Bounds.

All Par-4s and Par-5s feature 2-3 yards of semi-rough; stray over that in you’re instantly into knee- to waist-high fescue. The transition from fairway to tall fescue is both stark but also amazingly small in terms of miss distance.

Out of Bounds is also interesting with 6 holes featuring clear and obvious lines over which if you stray it’s an instant shot penalty. Tie that in with deep, penalising, fairway bunkering which has been re-positioned for 2023 golf distances, and it becomes clear that for players to thrive here they need to have control of their golf ball from off the tee.

For a full breakdown of the course, changes since The Open last visited, and player quotes from the 2014 Open Championship hosted here, read Steve Bamford’s pre-event trends article.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | Recent Majors Stats.

Predictor Model: Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Winners & Prices: 2022: Cameron Smith, 28/1; 2021: Collin Morikawa, 40/1; 2019:, Shane Lowry: 70/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 33/1; 2017: Jordan Spieth, 16/1; 2016: Henrik Stenson, 33/1; 2015: Zach Johnson, 110/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 18/1; 2013, Phil Mickelson, 20/1; 2012: Ernie Els, 45/1; 2011: Darren Clarke, 200/1; 2010: Louis Oosthuizen, 250/1.

For a full list of winners’ prices back to 2010, click here: PGA Tour | DP World Tour

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

A moderate westerly breeze of between 10-15mph is expected to accompany sunny spells and showers, with temperatures reaching the mid 60s Fahrenheit in the afternoons.

2014 Weather: For comparison, here’s how the weather played out in 2014, the last time Hoylake hosted The Open:

• Thursday: Mostly sunny. Winds N/NW 10-15 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. High of 78 Fahrenheit.
• Friday: Partly cloudy with a few light showers in the morning. Winds S/SE 15-25 mph. High of 80 Fahrenheit.
• Saturday: Overcast with rain throughout the day. Winds W/NW 8-15 mph. High of 80 Fahrenheit.
• Sunday: Mostly sunny and warmer, with highs in the mid-80s Fahrenheit. Winds N/NW 8-15 mph.

Even with the wind, Rory McIlroy still managed to get to 12-under through the first 36 holes, with Dustin Johnson next best at 8-under. With relatively soft conditions, scoring here isn’t likely to be too onerous for those who can keep the ball in play.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Let’s take the final skill statistics from Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy at their 2006 and 2014 wins here at Hoylake:

• 2014: Rory McIlroy (-17). 328 yards (1st), 66.1% fairways (20th), 68.1% greens in regulation (25th), Ball Striking Rank 6th, 69.6% scrambling (4th), 1.65 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2006: Tiger Woods (-18). 291 yards (53rd), 85.7% fairways (1st), 80.6% greens in regulation (2nd), Ball Striking Rank 10th, 50.0% scrambling (13th), 1.62 putts per GIR (12th).

A key angle jumps out from these basic traditional statistics. Firstly, accurate but not necessarily long driving is a must. Woods’ win here in 2006 is the stuff of Major Championship legend, with a Grade A tee-to-green strategy that Tiger hatched in his first practice round. A sun-baked Hoylake had left the course with rock hard fairways and greens, so Woods ditched his 5 wood for a 2 iron and proceeded to play conservatively off the tee, taking the fairway bunkers out of the equation, in turn maximising the amount of time he was in the fairway. Indeed TW only used his driver once during the whole tournament, hitting 48 of 56 fairways or 85.71% – that was first across the whole field.

McIlroy in 2014 took a typically buccaneering strategy off the tee, where he averaged 328 yards in distance which only Brooks Koepka could match. Less evident but just as important was the fact that Rory hit 37 of 56 fairways or 66.1%, which equated to a rank of 20th for Driving Accuracy. Spray the ball off the tee here at Hoylake and you won’t be winning the Open Championship come Sunday.

Ball Striking (totalling a player’s total driving and greens in regulation) as a statistic only holds so much water, but Woods ranked 10th and McIlroy 6th when lifting the trophy at Royal Liverpool. Naturally top-level putting was also a feature of their successes, but you’d expect nothing else at a Major Championship.

Scoring Breakdown: In terms of specific scoring stats, 4 areas correlate between both Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods in their respective victories:

2014, Rory McIlroy:

• Eagles: 2, Tied 1^st
• Birdies: 20, Tied 3^rd
• Bogeys: 7, Tied 8^th
• Par 5 Scoring: -12, Tied 1^st

2006, Tiger Woods:

• Eagles: 3, Tied 1^st
• Birdies: 19, Tied 6^th
• Bogeys: 7, Tied 2^nd
• Par 5 Scoring: -14, Tied 3^rd

Some Opens venues are more restrictive when it comes to scoring, however eagles and birdies are generally more available here at Hoylake with the Par 5s historically offering the best opportunities for red (or yellow) numbers.

There are also a number of identifiable trends from the past few Open Championship winners that are worth considering this week:

Recent Form: Going back to the Open held at St Andrews in 2010, each of the 12 players who’ve lifted the Claret Jug have had some contending form in the recent past. Each of the winners had a top-3 finish or better in their last 8 starts, and if you take the past 6 Open victors in isolation, each of them had a win or 2^nd place finish in one of their past 9 outings.

Last 10 event form of Open Championship winners since 2010 reads as follows (most recent result on the right):

• 2022, Cameron Smith: 33/1/3/MC/21/13/13/48/MC/10
• 2021, Collin Morikawa: 1/41/56/18/7/8/14/2/4/71
• 2019, Shane Lowry: 62/MC/MC/24/MC/3/8/2/28/34
• 2018, Francesco Molinari: 17/20/49/16/MC/1/2/25/1/2
• 2017, Jordan Spieth: 12/30/MC/11/MC/MC/2/13/35/1
• 2016, Henrik Stenson: 11/3/2/24/MC/MC/4/WD/1/13
• 2015, Zach Johnson: 20/9/MC/17/13/19/5/72/6/3
• 2014: Rory McIlroy: 25/7/8/8/6/1/15/23/MC/14
• 2013: Phil Mickelson: 3/MC/16/54/3/MC/2/2/MC/1
• 2012: Ernie Els: 4/12/MC/2/MC/41/7/58/9/52
• 2011: Darren Clarke: 12/48/MC/77/1/45/63/46/MC/66
• 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: 3/44/2/1/MC/MC/21/20/MC/MC

For current form stats for this week’s field click here.

2023 Victory: Looking back to the start of the century, 16 of the 22 Open Championship winners had already won an event of some description in that calendar year to date.

For reference they were: Tiger Woods (00, 05, 06), Ernie Els (02), Todd Hamilton (04), Padraig Harrington (07), Louis Oosthuizen (10), Darren Clarke (11), Phil Mickelson (13), Rory McIlroy (14), Henrik Stenson (16), Jordan Spieth (17), Francesco Molinari (18), Shane Lowry (19), Collin Morikawa (21) and Cameron Smith (22).

In total, 51 players in this week’s field fulfil that criteria – listed by OWGR as of 14/7/22:

• Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Kurt Kitayama, Jason Day, Sepp Straka, Justin Rose, Corey Conners, Siwoo Kim, Chris Kirk, Emiliano Grillo, Nick Taylor, Taylor Moore, Adrian Meronk, Lucas Herbert, Pablo Larrazabal, Abraham Ancer, Victor Perez, Thriston Lawrence, Davis Riley, Rasmus Hojgaard, Thorbjorn Olesen, Talor Gooch, Takumi Kanaya, Matt Wallace, Jorge Campillo, Daniel Hillier, Keita Nakajima, Ockie Strydom, Taiga Semikawa, Hiroshi Iwata, Padraig Harrington, Marcel Siem, David Micheluzzi, Kensei Hirata, Seungsu Han, Kyle Barker, Brandon Robinson-Thompson, Ernie Els, Taichi Kho.

Open Championship Record: Positive previous Open Championship performances have also been a factor when you look through the history of the most recent winners of golf’s oldest Major.

9 of the last 12 Open Champions had all previously secured at least a top-10 in this event in their careers – the exception to that rule being Louis Oosthuizen’s win at St Andrews in 2010, Collin Morikawa who won at Royal St George’s on debut, and Cameron Smith last year at St Andrews.

Smith’s record could and perhaps should have been much better though, having sat in 5^th place after 36 holes in 2019 and 9^th after 54 holes in 2021, before getting it right over the weekend 12 months ago:

• 2022, Cameron Smith: MC/78/20/33
• 2021, Collin Morikawa: Debut
• 2019, Shane Lowry: 37/32/9/MC/MC/MC/MC
• 2018, Francesco Molinari: MC/13/MC/MC/39/9/15/40/36/MC
• 2017, Jordan Spieth: 44/36/4/30
• 2016, Henrik Stenson: MC/34/48/MC/3/13/3/68/2/39/40
• 2015, Zach Johnson: MC/MC/MC/20/51/47/76/16/9/6/47
• 2014: Rory McIlroy: 42/47/3/25/60/MC
• 2013: Phil Mickelson: 41/24/76/MC/11/30/66/59/3/60/22/MC/19/48/2/MC
• 2012: Ernie Els: 2/10/28/24/2/3/1/18/2/34/3/4/7/8/MC/MC
• 2011: Darren Clarke: 11/2/MC/30/7/3/37/59/11/15/MC/MC/52/44
• 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: MC/MC/MC

For event history stats for this week’s field click here.

Recent Majors Form: One aspect that we discussed on the Golf Betting System Podcast when previewing The Open is the growing and consistent trend that recent Open Champions have recorded a top-25 finish in one of their previous 3 Major starts, and in the case of the last 5 Open winners, a top-11 finish.

Last 3 Majors of recent Open winners:

• 2022, Cameron Smith: 3/13/MC
• 2021, Collin Morikawa: 18/8/4
• 2019, Shane Lowry: MC/8/28
• 2018, Francesco Molinari: 2/20/25
• 2017, Jordan Spieth: 13/11/35
• 2016, Henrik Stenson: 25/24/WD
• 2015, Zach Johnson: 69/9/72
• 2014: Rory McIlroy: 8/8/23
• 2013: Phil Mickelson: 36/54/2
• 2012: Ernie Els: MC/-/2

Logically this makes a level of sense as players who have found themselves in and around the top end of a Major leaderboard in recent times may well take that experience forward and build on it when the chance arises at The Open.

For recent Major history for this week’s field click here.

OWGR Ranking Of Winners: It’s also interesting to note that only two players since 2000 have won The Open whilst ranking outside of the world’s top-55 when entering this week: Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011 were the two to achieve this.

Taking this another step further, every Open Champion since Clarke’s win has ranked inside the OWGR top 40 at the time:

• 2022, Cameron Smith: OWGR rank 6th
• 2021, Collin Morikawa: 4th
• 2019, Shane Lowry: 33rd
• 2018, Francesco Molinari: 15th
• 2017, Jordan Spieth: 3rd
• 2016, Henrik Stenson: 6th
• 2015, Zach Johnson: 25th
• 2014, Rory McIlroy: 8th
• 2013, Phil Mickelson: 6th
• 2012, Ernie Els: 40th

Hoylake isn’t one of the tougher Open Championship venues, even with a little breeze keeping the players honest, and unless the wind seriously blows here we should expect leading players to reach the mid-teens under par or thereabouts by Sunday afternoon. A change of par from 72 to 71 may dampen the scoring a little, however it doesn’t change the fundamental test that’s presented here.

What does this mean? Well, for me firmer, tougher conditions would swing the pendulum towards the more experienced veterans and links specialists, whereas softer conditions might favour a more ‘modern’ style of golfer.

Second-guessing seaside conditions can be a dangerous game to play, however the forecast does seem fairly stable at the time of writing with just a moderate breeze and showers, so I’m not expecting a Darren Clarke-style tournament and result. All that said, to lift the Claret Jug a player will also need to demonstrate masses of guile and determination coming down the stretch on Sunday under the most intense of pressure.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 10:10BST 17.7.23 but naturally subject to fluctuation.

If longshots are more to your taste then check out Steve Bamford’s pick of the triple-digit chances, plus a view on this week’s Barracuda Championship here.