Happy New Year to you all and welcome to 2025 PGA Tour season.
The Sentry always used to be a winners-only event, but is now an upgraded Signature event which brings with it a bigger 60-player field. For readers who like to know, winners from 2024 season are joined by Tour Championship qualifiers plus 25 who qualified via finishing inside the top 50 in the final 2024 FedExCup standings. No-shows are Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, who sustained a puncture wound after cutting the palm of his right hand on broken glass requiring surgery.
Any field featuring including 15 of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking has to get the betting juices flowing. The usual suspects – less Scheffler of course – are here this week in Hawaii, plus we have fascinating tournament debutants like Robert MacIntyre, Austin Eckroat and Maverick McNealy all adding to the intrigue, with players and punters looking to make a fast start to 2025.
Before we go into the detail surrounding The Sentry, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: From a course design perspective, Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw these days are most famously known for their renovation masterpiece at Pinehurst Number 2 and the inland faux links-style course at Trinity Forest in Dallas, Texas. However their Plantation Course design at Kapalua, which was opened in 1991, is no ordinary golf course as it sits perched above the Pacific Ocean.
A Par 73 format which is unique on the PGA Tour, the course is synonymous with long drives, aggressive play and impressively low scoring. Scratch a little deeper though and it becomes apparent that the course can be mastered just as well by shorter, accurate types who can putt the lights out over 4 days of competition.
2020 saw Plantation open its doors to a fresh renovation, again managed by Coore and Crenshaw. A $12 million tee-to-green project, every part of the 28 year-old course was reworked including tee boxes, bunkers, fairways, drainage and green complexes. It’s done little to make this course more difficult though and like all coastal courses it only plays as difficult as the strength and direction of the wind.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua, Lahaina, Hawaii: Designer: Coore & Crenshaw, 1991, with 2019 renovation; Course Type: Coastal, Resort, Long; Par: 73; Length: 7,596 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Number of Sand Bunkers: 93; Acres of Fairway: 44.5; Fairways Celebration Bermudagrass; Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass, 2.5″; Greens: 8,722 sq.ft average featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 11ft.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Coore/Crenshaw designs include:
Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 + 2024 U.S. Open
Trinity Forest Golf Club – 2018/19 AT&T Byron Nelson
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2024: 68.37 (-4.63), Rank 51 of 51 courses
2023: 68.92 (-4.08), Rank 49 of 49 courses
2022: 68.22 (-4.78), Rank 50 of 50 courses
2021: 69.32 (-3.68), Rank 51 of 51 courses
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Plantation Course at Kapalua and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Seaside Course: 250 yards from the tee: 42 yards wide; 275:40; 300:34; 325:31; 350:23.
El Cardonal: Average 60 yards up to 70 yards wide.
TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
Black Desert: Average 30 yards up to 70-100 yards wide.
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
Course Overview: Let’s start by headlining the Coore and Crenshaw renovation on the Plantation Course which we saw for the first time in competition in 2020. Firmer and flatter putting surfaces were undoubtedly the biggest carry away, with the winning score of -14/278 a significant shift from previous low0scoring renewals. But since then lighter winds and more established green complexes have seen scoring back to what we expect here at Kapalua. Harris English and Joaquin Niemann both scored -25/267 to make a play-off in 2021, and 2022 saw Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm and Matt Jones shoot -34/258, -33/259 and -32/260 respectively. Scoring ‘slowed’ to -27/265 for Jon Rahm in 2023, but a windy renewal last year saw Chris Kirk win at -29/263. All in all, the Plantation Course has been the easiest course on the entire PGA Tour for the past 4 years.
Other key parts of the 2019 work included re-positioned tee boxes which take into account the fact that Maui now receives less wind than it did when the original course was designed. Hole yardages changed therefore with total yardage up 78 yards to 7,596 yards. Bunkers were re-positioned and the whole course was re-grassed with Celebration Bermudagrass from tee to green and TifEagle Bermudagrass on the green surfaces. Many greens were re-contoured as were green entrances. Quite significant changes which saw experienced Kapalua hands having to revisit their detailed course notes.
Plantation seems long at circa 7,600 yards, but the course plays as a Par 73 via a unique 36/37 Par split and is famous for having 11 par-4s and only 3 par-3s. In total the layout features 8 sub-425 yard par-4s. With wedge in hand this makes it possible to score heavily on the 4-shot holes, especially on the back 9. The course has the largest amount of elevation changes on the whole PGA Tour creating blind shots and plenty of uneven lies. Large greens feature 2019 laid TifEagle Bermudagrass carpet, with less severe contours overall.
The key to this test tends to be top class wind play (not too relevant in 2025 seemingly) allied to conquering the uniquely contoured and huge 8,700+ sq.ft average green complexes. Eagles and birdies are on offer to those who can putt well on greens where getting close to the hole is a particularly difficult task – indeed Kapalua traditionally ranks inside the top 10 most difficult courses in terms of Proximity to Hole every year. Tie the difficulty in getting close to the pin in with the fact that putts are difficult to read with grain a huge feature, and that there are huge variances in putting speed dependant on whether a putt is uphill, flat or downhill.
The scoring though at Kapalua is always shaped by the strength of the local winds. For 2025 winds will be pretty standard at around 20mph for what looks like the opening 36 holes, so expect a complete resort scoring-level festival of a tournament.
The Sentry Winners: 2024: Chris Kirk (-29); 2023: Jon Rahm (-27); 2022: Cameron Smith (-34); 2021: Harris English (-25); 2020: Justin Thomas (-14); 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24); 2017: Justin Thomas (-22); 2016: Jordan Spieth (-30); 2015: Patrick Reed (-21); 2014: Zach Johnson (-19); 2013: Dustin Johnson (-15, 54 holes); 2012: Steve Stricker (-23); 2011: Jonathan Byrd (-24); 2010: Geoff Ogilvy (-22).
2024: Chris Kirk 67-65-66-65 -29/263
2023: Jon Rahm 64-71-67-63 -27/265
2022: Cameron Smith 65-64-64-65 -34/258
2021: Harris English 65-67-66-69 -25/267
2020: Justin Thomas 67-73-69-69 -14/278
2019: Xander Schauffele 72-67-68-62 -23/269
OWGR of Sentry Winners: 2024: Kirk 52; 2023: Rahm 5; 2022: Smith 21; English 29; 2020: Thomas 4; 2019: Schauffele 11; 2018: D Johnson 1; 2017: Thomas 22.
Steve Stricker: 4th Shark Shoot/16th WC/15th Tour Championship/WD BMW.
Jonathan Byrd: 1st Shriners/30th Fry’s.com/66th McGladrey/5th Viking.
Geoff Ogilvy: 7th Aus PGA/31st Aus Open/4th Dubai/32nd Australian Masters.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Maverick McNealy, Collin Morikawa, Denny McCarthy, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland, J.T. Poston.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
The Sentry Winning Prices: 2024: Kirk 150/1; 2023: Rahm 7/1F; 2022: Cameron Smith 28/1; 2021: Harris English 33/1; 2020: Justin Thomas 11/2; 2019: Xander Schauffele 22/1; 2018: Dustin Johnson 15/2; 2017: Justin Thomas 22/1; 2016: Spieth 5/1; 2015: Reed 22/1; 2014: Zach Johnson 14/1; 2013: Dustin Johnson 14/1; 2012: Stricker 17/2; 2011: Byrd 50/1; 2010: Ogilvy 9/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 45/1; Overall Average: 27/1.
Historical Weather:
2024: Thursday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 80. Wind ENE 12-18, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 80. Wind ENE 12-18, with gusts to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind ENE 12-14, with gusts to 22 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind SSW 6-12 mph.
2023: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 77. Wind NE 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 80. Wind NE 10-15 mph, gust up to 20 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 80. Wind ENE 10-15 mph, gust up to 20 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind NE 10-15 mph.
2022: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 78. Wind NE 10-18 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind N 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind N/NE 8-16 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 82. Wind ENE 9-18 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon, with a high of 82. Wind N/NE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with mostly sunny skies, high of 80. Wind E/NE 8-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 81. Wind ENE 12-17 mph, gusting to 22 mph.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind N/NE 16-22 mph. Friday: Heavy morning showers turning to a mixture of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon. High of 79. Wind NE 20-30 mph, with gusts to 35 mph. Saturday: Scattered morning showers with rain decreasing in the afternoon. High of 79. Wind NE 15-25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 80. Wind ENE 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 79. Wind ENE 14-22 mph, with gusts to 31 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 79. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 79. Wind ENE 10-16 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. Wind NNW 5-10 mph.
2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 77. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 78. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy. High of 77. Wind ENE 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy. High of 77. Wind ENE 18-28 mph, with gusts to 35 mph.
2017: Thursday: Mostly clear skies with an isolated shower in the afternoon. High of 73. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 75. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 76. Wind ENE 10-15 mph.
2016: Thursday: Sunny and warm. High of 81. Wind N at 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny and warm. High of 81. Wind WSW at 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 80. Wind SW at 10-20 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind at W 6-12 mph.
2015: Friday: Partly cloudy and warm, with temperatures in the high-70s. ESE wind shifting W at 10-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 80. ENE wind at 10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 80. Wind WSW at 10 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny. High of 80. Wind WSW at 10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Maui is here.
We’ve seen little rain in the build-up to this event, and with little threat of precipitation during the event, I’d anticipate the prodigious Plantation Course fairway roll-outs we expect here. Green speeds should also be similar to what we saw in 2024. The only true defence of this course is plenty of wind, and forecasts suggest similar but slightly less than we saw 12 months ago. With 15-20 mph Trade (north easterly) winds across the opening 36 holes (54 holes in 2024), I’d expect lower scores in 2025, potentially similar to those we saw in 2022. Temperatures will be a pleasant 24-25 degrees Celsius – 75-77 Fahrenheit – throughout.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Sanderson Farms Championship/Alfred Dunhill Links which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded, plus the Hero World Challenge. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Taylor Pendrith; 2) Corey Conners; 3) Byeong Hun An / Cameron Young; 5) Keegan Bradley / Justin Thomas; 7) Sungjae Im; 8) Patrick Cantlay / Robert MacIntyre / Matthieu Pavon; 11) Wyndham Clark; 12) Jason Day; 13) Akshay Bhatia; 14) Aaron Rai / Davis Thompson; 16) Sam Burns; 17) Russell Henley; 18) Kevin Yu; 19) Austin Eckroat / Max Greyserman; 21) Jhonattan Vegas; 22) Max Homa / Adam Scott; 24) Xander Schauffele; 25) Sepp Straka / Will Zalatoris.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Akshay Bhatia / Justin Thomas; 3) Patrick Cantlay; 4) Keegan Bradley; 5) Si Woo Kim; 6) Sepp Straka; 7) Nick Dunlap / Cameron Young; 9) Russell Henley / Adam Scott; 11) J.T. Poston / Aaron Rai; 13) Sam Burns / Max Greyserman / Taylor Pendrith; 16) Jason Day; 17) Wyndham Clark; 18) Robert MacIntyre; 19) Hideki Matsuyama; 20) Max Homa; 21) Corey Conners; 22) Sungjae Im / Sahith Theegala; 24) Collin Morikawa / Will Zalatoris.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Sahith Theegala; 2) Aaron Rai; 3) Wyndham Clark; 4) Justin Thomas; 5) Sam Burns; 6) Sungjae Im / Cameron Young; 8) Akshay Bhatia / Robert MacIntyre; 10) Patrick Cantlay; 11) Keegan Bradley; 12) Thomas Detry; 13) Corey Conners; 14) Jason Day; 15) Russell Henley; 16) Si Woo Kim / Adam Scott; 18) Nick Dunlap / Denny McCarthy; 20) Byeong Hun An / Eric Cole; 22) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Matthieu Pavon; 24) Brian Harman / Maverick McNealy.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Corey Conners; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) J.T. Poston; 4) Keegan Bradley; 5) Patrick Cantlay; 6) Akshay Bhatia; 7) Sungjae Im / Robert MacIntyre / Cameron Young; 10) Taylor Pendrith / Aaron Rai; 12) Byeong Hun An; 13) Sepp Straka; 14) Sam Burns / Nick Dunlap; 16) Wyndham Clark; 17) Russell Henley / Adam Scott / Davis Thompson; 20) Jason Day; 21) Max Greyserman; 22) Si Woo Kim / Matthieu Pavon; 24) Max Homa; 25) Austin Eckroat / Sahith Theegala.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Max Greyserman; 2) Byeong Hun An / Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Akshay Bhatia; 5) Jason Day; 6) Sam Burns / Si Woo Kim; 8) Russell Henley; 9) Keegan Bradley; 10) Wyndham Clark; 11) Aaron Rai; 12) Harry Hall; 13) Patrick Cantlay; 14) Cameron Young; 15) Robert MacIntyre / Taylor Pendrith; 17) Brian Harman / Sungjae Im; 19) Davis Riley / Sepp Straka; 21) Thomas Detry / Denny McCarthy; 23) J.T. Poston / Justin Thomas; 25) Max Homa.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Byeong Hun An; 2) J.T. Poston; 3) Max Greyserman / Justin Thomas; 5) Akshay Bhatia; 6) Keegan Bradley; 7) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Corey Conners / Si Woo Kim; 10) Taylor Pendrith; 11) Sepp Straka; 12) Patrick Cantlay / Sungjae Im; 14) Alex Noren; 15) Cameron Young; 16) Sam Burns / Aaron Rai; 18) Robert MacIntyre; 19) Wyndham Clark; 20) Harry Hall; 21) Jason Day / Russell Henley; 23) Max Homa; 24) Nick Dunlap; 25) Brian Harman.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of The Sentry winners here at the Plantation Course since 2015 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this undulating, coastal, Par 73:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
2024, Chris Kirk (-29). SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 11th.
2023, Jon Rahm (-27). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 32nd, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 1st.
2022, Cameron Smith (-34). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 1st.
2021, Harris English (-25). SG Off the Tee: 8th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 1st.
2020, Justin Thomas (-14). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 13th.
2019, Xander Schauffele (-23). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 3rd.
2018, Dustin Johnson (-24). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 6th.
2017, Justin Thomas (-22). SG Off the Tee: 3rd, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 4th.
2016, Jordan Spieth (-30). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 1st.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 10th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 5th.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2024, Chris Kirk (-29). 282 yards (40th), 58.3% fairways (30th), 83.3% greens in regulation (19th), 37’6″ proximity to hole (20th), 91.7% scrambling (1st), 1.58 putts per GIR (3rd).
2023, Jon Rahm (-27). 307 yards (2nd), 51.7% fairways (35th), 84.7% greens in regulation (7th), 40’2″ proximity to hole (22nd), 63.6% scrambling (13th), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).
2022, Cameron Smith (-34). 303 yards (4th), 75.0% fairways (14th), 86.1% greens in regulation (5th), 34’9″ proximity to hole (20th), 80.0 % scrambling (9th), 1.55 putts per GIR (2nd).
2021, Harris English (-25). 277 yards (25th), 83.3% fairways (14th), 86.1% greens in regulation (3rd), 38’2″ proximity to hole (20th), 70.0 % scrambling (17th), 1.61 putts per GIR (1st).
2020, Justin Thomas (-14). 272 yards (11th), 78.3% fairways (19th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 37’4″ proximity to hole (2nd), 43.8 % scrambling (32nd), 1.66 putts per GIR (2nd).
2019, Xander Schauffele (-23). 280 yards (14th), 78.3% fairways (15th), 81.9% greens in regulation (5th), 40’0″ proximity to hole (20th), 69.2 % scrambling (8th), 1.66 putts per GIR (2nd).
2018, Dustin Johnson (-24). 296 yards (2nd), 65.0% fairways (18th), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 45’8″ proximity to hole (23rd), 68.8 % scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
2017, Justin Thomas (-22). 302 yards (3rd), 73.3% fairways (17th), 87.5% greens in regulation (2nd), 32’8″ proximity to hole (3rd), 66.7 % scrambling (12th), 1.68 putts per GIR (1st).
2016, Jordan Spieth (-30). 284 yards (17th), 73.3% fairways (12th), 83.3% greens in regulation (11th), 34’11” proximity to hole (3rd), 83.3 % scrambling (3rd), 1.62 putts per GIR (1st).
2015, Patrick Reed (-21). 282 yards (4th), 66.7% fairways (27th), 80.6% greens in regulation (15th), 44’8″ proximity to hole (25th), 85.7 % scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (5th).
2014, Zach Johnson (-19). 267 yards (23rd), 83.3% fairways (8th), 77.8% greens in regulation (17th), 35’5″ proximity to hole (3rd), 81.3 % scrambling (2nd), 1.73 putts per GIR (9th).
2013, Dustin Johnson (-15). 280 yards (2nd), 51.1% fairways (30th), 88.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 36’6″ proximity to hole (2nd), 50.0% scrambling (18th), 1.75 putts per GIR (3rd).
2012, Steve Stricker (-23). 268 yards (15th), 66.7% fairways (11th), 81.9% greens in regulation (13th), 35’8″ proximity to hole (4th), 69.2% scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (2nd).
2011, Jonathan Byrd (-24). 273 yards (21st), 80.0% fairways (11th), 86.1% greens in regulation (10th), 34”11″ proximity to hole (10th), 70.0% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (8th).
2010, Geoff Ogilvy (-22). 274 yards (19th), 71.7% fairways (16th), 84.7% greens in regulation (12th), 37’10” proximity to hole (10th), 63.6% scrambling (2nd), 1.64 putts per GIR (1st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 13th, Driving Accuracy: 18th, Greens in Regulation: 9th, Proximity to Hole: 12th, Scrambling: 8th, Putting Average 3rd.
So let’s take a view from players as to how the Plantation course sets up and what skills the course favours:
Chris Kirk (2024): “Yeah, I love it here. It’s amazing just to be back in Maui and this golf course is just so fun to play, especially when it gets kind of firmer and faster like this and can’t beat the weather, that’s for sure. Short game was really good last few days. I didn’t miss that many greens. Hit some really great short game shots, especially on the back nine today when I did. Yeah, ball striking has been overall really consistent.
A little bit of a slow start, for sure. Those firsthand full of holes with the wind direction and how strong it was, are actually playing really difficult. We’ve had relatively calm winds, then pretty breezy today. So No. 2, with that wind hard off the left, it’s tough to hold that green. Then 3 and 4 are playing really long into the wind, just makes it a little bit tough. But I played through that stretch. Then you get into 5, 6, 7, some of those holes where you can take advantage of, and played really great the rest of the way.
But it is always strange like after having a pretty good bit of time off at home and it’s been cold and haven’t been practicing a whole lot, you kind of don’t expect to come out and go play great. It’s fun just to be here and enjoy Hawaii and be able to make some nice free swings in this warm weather. I always loved coming here.
I think I just love playing golf in Hawaii. I’ve had a lot of really great weeks at the Sony Open. I haven’t quite managed to win that one. This golf course is one that I love. It’s so fun to play. It’s just so unique, it’s so different from everywhere else that we play. Some of the crazy lies that you’re hitting off of and you hit one drive that goes 240 and the next one might go 450. It really kind of brings out the creativity in what we’re doing and it’s just a lot of fun.”
Jon Rahm (2023): “Last year was the lowest I’ve ever shot without winning a tournament, that’s for sure. I think last year was unique because we didn’t have as much wind as we usually have here, which is the defence of this golf course, and then it was softer than in the past, so you had to be that aggressive.
No, you just go out there and keep making birdies. Luckily there’s a stretch of this golf course from 12 on where you can give yourself a really good birdie look on every single one of the holes. Maybe not on 17 because that tee shot, the second shot can be tricky. But 12 through 16 you really should be taking advantage of those holes, right? And on the front nine, you can also, you can do it. I think sometimes the toughest stretch is 1 through 4, and then 5 through 9 you see a lot of people make birdies.
Well, this is the firmest I’ve seen it and not even, I don’t even know what to say to that because it plays very short. I mean, if I’m hitting good tee shots and using the driver, maybe on 3 and 4 if it’s windy you’ll have more than a 9-iron in. Besides that, it’s all wedge shots. I can’t really, it’s driver, wedge for the most part all day, especially when there’s not wind like this. So with greens being receptive and rolling as well as they are, you have to shoot low.”
Cameron Smith (2022): “I got in here on Thursday last week, so the weather back in Jacksonville typically this time of year isn’t that great, so I wanted to give myself a little bit of time to get used to the course and also the time change and stuff like that. And, like I said, I haven’t been doing too much practice so being here made me practice and, yeah, it was good.
Started to feel really comfortable there, especially with the driver. Yeah, I mean, the course is still kind of receptive. It was nice to see a little bit of run in the fairways again today. But, yeah, there’s going to be low scores. There always is around here. And, yeah, just got to prepare for that the best I can and hopefully have a good weekend.
There’s such a low score out there you never know what can happen. I mean, it’s very gettable, there’s so many wedges, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s another 61 or 62 out there tomorrow. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, Hawaii reminds me so much of where I grew up, it’s insane. The grass that we hit off, the greens being quite slow and grainy. Yeah, it’s awesome, I love it here.”
Harris English (2021): “I saw Xander finish with a 62 last year and I know it’s out there. I mean, you drive the ball well out here, you’re going to have a lot of short irons, a lot of wedges, and you just got to get your putting dialled in. I feel like did I that today, gave myself a lot of chances, and rolled in a couple longer putts. Yeah, it was awesome. I got off to a really good start, making probably a 20-footer on No. 2, and that’s what you got to do out here. I love these Bermuda greens. I grew up on greens very similar to this. And just got hot with the putter. I felt like I was hitting the ball really welcoming into it, and I feel like my iron game is probably one of my strengths. And I think I only missed two or three greens out there today. I think I chipped one time, so a couple greens I did miss, I was still putting from the fringe. So just overall a really good ball-striking round and good putting round.”
“I know guys have different strategies, but I’m hitting driver a lot this week. I would say more so than a normal golf course. I mean, these fairways are wide, you can be as aggressive as you want to, but it’s still about putting the ball in the fairway. You start putting the ball in the rough, start missing greens, it’s tough to get up-and-down because these greens are pretty gnarly Bermuda grass around the greens and they’re pretty tough to lag putt out here.”
Justin Thomas (2020): “The thing is the pins were front on 1, 2 and 4, and if they’re downwind, you can’t get close to the hole unless you get lucky and land it short or make a long putt. I mean, I landed it literally two inches on the green on 2 and I had about a 45-footer from past the hole. That’s just how it is. Everyone has to play in those conditions, not just me. I understood that those were not really holes I was going to attack and make birdie unless I made a long putt, and I know the back nine you can make a lot of birdies, and I could have birdied nine of the last ten holes today really. I played really, really solidly the last half of the round.”
“Yeah, it was tough all day (Friday). It was windy all day. That rain was annoying a little bit in the start and not even remotely close to yesterday, but it was still enough in the beginning off and on to make it tough. I mean, it’s just tough out there. It’s tougher. I mean, it makes an easy golf course play harder. It’s the protection of the course. It’s meant to play that way, and with the newer, firmer greens, the scores are obviously a lot higher, and I think the wind and the weather is the cause of that.”
Xander Schauffele: “Yesterday I made a lot of mistakes on the back nine and being in San Diego, it’s hard to practice in a whole lot of wind. So we got a little more comfy today versus yesterday. Wind wise, it was pretty much east to, northeast, so it was the same direction. So the lines and everything else was the same for the most part. As a comfort aspect that definitely helped. Yeah, it’s an uncomfortable walk, but it will never get old and the views also won’t get old. So the more times you can play on a piece of property like this the more it will help.”
Dustin Johnson: “The first time you play it, maybe it’s a big golf course, the greens are really slopey and you kind of – and, too, when you’re playing practice rounds, the pins are always in some funny spots. But the more you play this golf course, the more you get used to it, the more you kind of know how to get yourself around it. Because sometimes it’s one of those courses where you really got to be on right side of the pin, whether you’re on the green or off the green, if you’re on the right side you know you can still make pars. But there’s a lot of opportunities for birdie. You got two holes that are somewhat drivable, four par-5s that you can reach. So it just all depends really. The greens are rolling pretty good, they’re a little slow, you can be a lot more aggressive. But I’m kind of with them though, I didn’t see that many under the first time I came here either. A big key with these greens with them being grainy and that is putting a good roll on it. I feel like I’m doing that. Just trusting the lines you got to hit them on. The greens are tricky to read. I had a few putts today that really – good birdie putts where I thought I had a good read on it and just the ball went opposite of what I thought, it’s just going to happen out here. So for me I just got to stay patient and try not to get too frustrated.”
Justin Thomas: “Today was the hardest for sure. It was a little windier. The greens are getting a little faster. They are still not, I’m sure, up to the pace that they would like with all the rain, but they are starting to get a little firmer, a little faster. The wind just makes it a lot harder to putt. And yesterday was pretty calm. It was about as easy as you could get this golf course. Then Thursday, it was, you know, a normal Kapalua wind, ten to 15. They have been similar but a little different, if that makes sense. Just kind of different versions of a little windy. It’s a course where you can just get so hot. You can realistically, 11 can be a tough hole, and 17 is a tough hole. But other than that, you’ve got a wedge in your hand or you’re looking at a lot of birdie holes and potentially eagle holes. I was just trying to tell myself that even though I made a bad bogey on 7, I hit a good putt on 8, just missed, and then just missed a wood over a 3-footer on 9 to birdie. Could have been 5-under on the front, but still being 2-under, I could still shoot 6-, 7-under on the back and post a low one. That was kind of my mind frame just going through the back nine.”
Jordan Spieth: “Whether it’s a short putt, or long, you just really got to hit it. I played a couple putts today – trickiest reads for me were ones where the entire mountain and grain is going one way, but you’re on the back side – like putts like I had on 17. I had one where that back side of that green’s pitched back the other way. You want to play gravity, but you know there’s an effect from the hill, from the slope and you know there’s an effect from the gradual slope down the mountain and the grain. And each time I try to almost out smart it and play it towards the water and it actually turned back into the hill. So I’ll keep a note of that. But for the most part, if you’re hitting anything from really five feet out into the grain uphill, it is just tough to hit hard enough. Especially in the last group because they get a little spiked up and they’re even slower.”
Patrick Reed: “The golf course fits my eye really well. A lot of the holes, seems like I can work it right-to-left and I’ve worked really hard this off-season on not only working the ball right-to-left but also working it left-to-right, so I can have both shots.”
Zach Johnson: “Well, I guess there was an intimidation factor there just because of the length of it. You know, score card length, and you get a few winds out here where the course does play long. You know, you get the trades, it doesn’t feel like it plays that long. But I was intimidated, not necessarily just because of the yardage, though. Because of the greens. They’re just so hard to putt. I mean they’re big; they’re undulating. A flat putt is pretty slow. The ones down grain are super fast. The ones in the grain are obviously super slow. So the greens are still intimidating. What I’ve grown to know is you’re going to hit good putts and they’re just not going to go in, because there’s so much break. So once I embraced that fact, I think things have kind of settled down a little bit mentally. It’s just hard. Everybody is going to hit it you’re going to hit a lot of fairways, you’re going to hit a lot of greens and you’re going to miss a lot of putts.”
Geoff Ogilvy: “Does it help to hit it long around here? It helps, I think. I don’t think I’m long anymore. I’m long enough. It gives longer hitters room to have a go at it, you know. There’s a lot of holes here where you just hit it as hard as you can and have a little bit of concern for where it goes but a lot less than normal. So I guess it’s an advantage to hit it long because you can, it’s always an advantage to hit it long. There’s a lot of holes here where it’s probably a super advantage. Like 18 is unreachable for the non-long guys but the long guys, it’s exponential. Every ten yards you hit it, you get an extra 20 yards. But a good wind player and a good putter is going to do the best out here I think.”
Steve Stricker: “Yeah, you have to learn here. It takes a while to learn here. It’s a little bit different than what we are typically used to. There’s big undulating greens, a lot of slope in the fairways. But I think the biggest challenge is the greens and the wind once you get on the greens. The wind can blow and make putting very difficult, and even the roll out in the greens that we typically have, which we are not seeing as much here. So it’s a challenge to hit some of these shots, and you expect that ball to roll out or release a lot, and it’s not now. So that’s a little different, too, and something to get used to. But it’s a course where a lot of local knowledge helps you out a lot and the more times you play here, the better off you are.”
2013 – D Johnson (7/7), Wilson (4/7), Watney (6/7) -4/69
2012 – Jonathan Byrd – Group 14/14 -6/67
2011 – Byrd (4/17), Pettersson (7/17) -7/66
2010 – Glover – Group 10/14 -7/66
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
6 – Justin Thomas.
4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Adam Scott.
3 – Xander Schauffele.
2 – Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Peter Malnati, Hideki Matsuyama.
1 – Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Keegan Bradley, Rafael Campos, Corey Conners, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Chris Gotterup, Adam Hadwin, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Patton Kizzire, Maverick McNealy, Collin Morikawa, J.T. Poston, Aaron Rai, Davis Riley, Sepp Straka, Jhonattan Vegas, Kevin Yu, Will Zalatoris.
Kapalua is a course where Driving Accuracy and pure Greens in Regulation take something of a back seat. Instead the key to success here is accurate approach play and conversion of scoring chances with the putter. For 8 of the last 9 winners here on the Plantation Course in terms of Strokes Gained, Off the Tee is far more important than Approach, whilst Around the Green is far more important than it usually is around this quirky set-up. Ultimately though Tee to Green ranks of 6th (Kirk), 3rd (Rahm), 3rd (Smith), 13th (English), 2nd (Thomas), 3rd (Schauffele), 1st (Johnson), 1st (Thomas) and 1st (Spieth), highlight that control of the golf ball from Tee to Green will be the essential this week.
The putter though also needs to be red hot to win. The last 15 winners of the Tournament of Champions have averaged 3rd spot across the Putting Average (Putts per GIR) category, whilst the last 9 winners have ranked on average 5th in the field for Strokes Gained Putting. You simply have to take your chances here to win.
12 of the last 16 winners here all played competitive golf in December previous, be that in Australia or at Tiger’s Hero World Challenge and/or the Grant Thornton Shoot Out. Working forward from Vijay Singh in 2007, all winners, bar 2019 champion Xander Schauffele, had shot -19 or lower to win a PGA Tour tournament previously in their career.
Another angle is Hawaii golf. Six players to date have won both The Sentry and the Sony Open in Hawaii: Jim Furyk (1996 Sony, 2001 Sentry), Ernie Els (2003 Sentry, 2003 and 2004 Sony), Vijay Singh (2005 Sony, 2007 Sentry), Zach Johnson (2009 Sony, 2014 Sentry), Justin Thomas (2017 Sentry, 2017 and 2020 Sony) and Cameron Smith (2020 Sony, 2022 Sentry).
My Final The Sentry Tips For 2025 Are As Follows:
Justin Thomas 3pts EW 11/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Let’s start 2025 with Justin Thomas.
Let’s be frank, he’s overdue a win and with Scottie Scheffler injuring his hand in a freak Christmas accident, JT has a superb opportunity to land his first PGA Tour win since the 2022 PGA Championship. Scheffler’s no-show hasn’t helped Justin’s odds but his Kapalua course form is hard to beat in this field: 21st (2016), 1st (2017), 22nd (2018), 3rd (2019), 1st (2020), 3rd (2021) and 5th (2022) – that’s 2 Wins and a further 3 top-5 finishes across 8 Plantation Course visits.
7th (72-Hole Scoring) at the Tour Championship, Thomas kept himself busy in the Fall section of the season, finishing 2nd at the ZOZO Championship in Japan and 3rd at the Hero World Challenge in mid-December. Justin played in the Sunday Final groups in both tournaments, being pipped by Nico Echavarria in Japan and World Number 1 Scheffler in the Bahamas.
But Thomas has always been the sort who requires a contending performance or two before getting over the line, so this form of build-up to his first win in over 2 years – plus the short winning odds when he does claim his 16th PGA Tour win – is hardly a shock.
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5th (2021), 8th (2022), 13th (2023) and 5th (2024), the South Korean has been 5th (2021), 4th (2022), 7th (2023) and 17th (2024) heading into Sunday across his 4 appearances here. That 54-hole 17th place 12 months ago may seem a blip, but Im was positioned 2nd and 2nd after 18 and 36 holes before a Saturday 73 derailed his challenge. He rallied with a Sunday 63 which was bettered by only Justin Rose who shot a -12/61.
Another positive for Sungjae is that he has late 2024 form that I look for at The Sentry. 13th at the ZOZO Championship, he then headed to the Bahamas early in December to play in the Hero World Challenge, eventually finishing 9th.
Those who like the Augusta National angle – Masters champions Zach Johnson, Dustin Johnson (x2), Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm have all won this since 2014 – will like the fact that Im has 2 top-10 finishes at the Masters. His T2 finish behind Dustin Johnson in 2020 saw him tied with Cameron Smith who won The Sentry in 2022.
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Akshay Bhatia 1pt EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
I can remember picking up Justin Thomas in this event back in 2017 at 22/1. Thomas had just won his second PGA Tour event at the CIMB Classic played at TPC Kuala Lumpur in October and was ranked at 22nd in the OWGR. 2017 was then his breakout year, winning here at Kapalua then the Sony Open the week after, before going on to win the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Akshay Bhatia’s career feels in a similar position to where Thomas’s was back in 2017. A maiden Tour Championship qualifier in only his second PGA Tour season, Bhatia won the Valero Texas Open back in April – his second PGA Tour victory – and has started to play some top golf of late.
2nd at the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament on the Japan Golf Tour in November where he went head-to-head with Hideki Matsuyama and eventual winner Max McGreevy, Akshay then finished 4th at the Hero World Challenge at Albany, playing with as well as outscoring playing partners Robert MacIntyre, Ludvig Aberg and Sahith Theegala across Thursday, Friday and Sunday. He even went out in Saturday’s Final Group with Scottie Scheffler, shooting 71 comparing to the World Number 1’s 69. Bhatia has the game and the confidence to mix it with the very best.
A post-Hero 3rd at the Grant Thornton Invitational with partner Celine Boutier came as recently as mid-December – Akshay is undoubtedly a form horse right now, but for me he also has the look of a player who will thrive at Kapalua. His Korn Ferry Tour win in 2022 was in windy conditions at the Bahamas Great Exuma Classic, plus he finished 2nd behind Nico Echavarria at another windy coastal assignment – the 2023 Puerto Rico Open. Plus we’ve also seen Bhatia play here 12 months ago when he entered Sunday a single shot behind Chris Kirk in the Final Group where he also played with Xander Schauffele. He’s maturing nicely.
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On courses where birdies are the true premium, I always look out for J.T. Poston.
Recently a 3-time winner on the PGA Tour, Poston’s wins have come at -22/258, -21/263 and -22/262 at the 2019 Wyndham Championship, the 2022 John Deere Classic, and the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open respectively. Winning at TPC Summerlin was hardly a surprise for a player who now sits a best-ever 33rd in the Official World Golf Rankings and potentially has a shot at a Team USA Ryder Cup place in 2025. Fascinatingly Poston also sits T3 for Resort Scoring Assignments on the PGA Tour across the past 5 years within this week’s Sentry Predictor Model, which will surprise many – he sits below only Patrick Cantlay (1st) and Tony Finau.
J.T. had a strong Hawaii Swing outing 12 months ago. 5th at The Sentry – he shot -25/267 – plus 6th at the Sony Open, he ranked 13th (Sentry) and 12th (Sony) for Strokes Gained Tee to Green across both assignments. His Kapalua course form is also enhanced with 11th on course debut back in 2020.
Poston also has late 2024 form that I look for at The Sentry. His win at TPC Summerlin was then followed by 5th at the RSM Classic powered by weekend rounds of 64 (Saturday) and 63 (Sunday). T9 at the Grant Thornton Invitational with partner Mel Reid saw Poston in competitive action as late as Sunday 15th December.
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