Plenty of questions will be answered at East Lake Golf Club this week which hosts the 2024 PGA Tour season-ending Tour Championship. The FedEx Cup Series culminates in Georgia with the top 30 in the standings arriving in Atlanta with a shot at the overall title. 2024 is the sixth Tour Championship renewal where we will see the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index, with FedEx Cup standings Number 1 Scottie Scheffler starting the tournament at -10.
The Tour Championship sees a FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index used, with the FedEx Cup standings leader starting the next week at -10, FEC Number 2 at -8, FEC Number 3 at -7, FEC Number 4 at -6 and Number 5 at -5. This then cascades down to those ranked 26th to 30th starting at Even par.
I’m disappearing for a well-earned break so the timing is pretty good as with a short 30-man field and a FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index which saps value in the Tour Championship Winner Outright market, so I’m not going to bet on the 2024 Tour Championship. Here’s my research preview which details course changes and relevant tournament trends though.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the Tour Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast, the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia first hosted the Tour Championship in 1998. Back then the tournament alternated every year with the Champions Golf Club in Houston, but East Lake has been the sole host since 2004. The course is a Donald Ross original which has received wholesale changes since we were last here in August 2023. The course has been lengthened, plus completely rebuilt across tee boxes, fairways, bunkering and green complexes. There are also detailed changes to agronomy both on the fairways and the greens themselves. Throw in an extra par-5 and East Lake this week will play as a 7,490 yard, Par 71.
East Lake Golf Club, East Atlanta, Georgia: Designer: Tom Bendelow (1904) & Donald Ross 1913 with Andrew Green restoration 2023; Course Type: Mid-Score, Long Length, Classical; Par: 71; Length: 7,490 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 8(+2); Number of Sand Bunkers: 78 (+4); Acres of Fairway: 29 (+5); Fairways: Zorro Zoysiagrass; Rough: Tifway 419 Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: Greens: 6,238 sq.ft average (up 619 sq.ft) featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald Ross designs include:
Aronimink – 2010/11 AT&T National & 2018 BMW Championship
Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic
East Course at Oak Hill – 2013 + 2023 PGA Championship
Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 + 2024 US Open
Plainfield – 2011 & 2015 Barclays
Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship
Course Overview: East Lake Golf Club appears in a new guise in 2024 after an Andrew Green restoration. A classical, tree-lined golf course, post 2023 Tour Championship the course was completely rebuilt from the ground up in 10 months and had a 13-week grow-in period. Green used previously unknown aerial photography of East Lake from 1949 as his restoration inspiration. This showed the original Donald Ross design in surprising detail and provided guidance on green shapes, bunker shapes and the overall topography of the original design.
The most notable changes to the course are reflected in the topography, greens and bunkers. Fairways have been converted from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia, which plays firmer and will lead to increased roll which allows for the topography to play a greater role in the strategy of each hole.
Green complexes have also had lots of work done to them. Larger in size – up circa 620 sq.ft. on average – the size, shape, contouring and surrounding run-off areas of each green complex have been enhanced. On the putting surfaces, tired MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass has been replaced by TifEagle Bermudagrass, which ultimately should (who knows with the PGA Tour) run faster, and especially repellent this first time around. Naturally that depends on how tough the Tour want this week to actually play.
Bunkering has also had a thorough work over, with more bunkers that have been layered at various distances from the teeing areas requiring players to be more accurate off the tee, both in line of play and distance of shot. Bunkering reverts to the 1949 style.
The course has also been lengthened by 144 yards, topping-off at 7,490 yards on the 2024 Tour Championship scorecard. The biggest change is to the 14th hole, which has been lengthened by 60 yards and received fairway re-contouring and bunker positioning work. This will play now as a par-5, taking East Lake to a Par 71 format with 3 par-5s (6th, 14th, 18th). A reclaimed stream on both the 6th and 7th holes now brings water into play on 8 of the 18 holes.
Bill Haas: 16th BMW/61st Deutsche/24th Barclays/MC Wyndham.
Jim Furyk: 15th BMW/37th Deutsche/24th PGA/15th Bridgestone.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Our predictor model isavailable here. Our brand new predictor model is also running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2023: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 95. Wind WNW 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny with a high of 97 degrees and winds NW at 8-13 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 99 degrees and winds NW at 5-12 mph. Play was suspended at 5:28 p.m. ET due to a dangerous weather situation and resumed at 6:43 p.m. ET, a delay of 1 hour and 15 minutes. Sunday: Mostly sunny with a high of 96 degrees and winds SSE at 4-8 mph. The final round was suspended at 1:57 p.m. ET due to inclement weather and resumed at 3:50 p.m. ET, a delay of 1 hour and 53 minutes.
2022: Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered Showers. High of 80. Wind S 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were utilized in round one. Friday: Partly Cloudy. High of 85. Wind S 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were utilized in round two. Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 4-8 mph. The third round was suspended due to inclement weather at 1:29 p.m. ET Saturday and resumed at 2:25 p.m. (56 minutes). Play was again suspended at 6:36 p.m. ET and was eventually called for the day, with 14 players yet to complete their rounds. Sunday: The third round resumed at 9:45 a.m. ET Sunday and was completed at 11:03 a.m. Mostly Sunny. High of 88. Wind ESE 7-14 mph.
2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 84. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 84. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 86. Wind WSW 4-8 mph.
2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 92. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, less humid with a high of 87. Wind N 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny skies with temperatures reaching into the mid-80s. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 86. Wind E 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 93. Wind SW at 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 91. Wind W/SW 10-15 mph. Due to inclement weather, round two was suspended from 4:07 p.m. until 5:33 p.m. (1 hour, 26 minutes). Saturday: Round three resumed as scheduled at 8 a.m. Widely scattered passing showers throughout the day. High of 79. Wind E 7-15 mph. Sunday: Overcast and cooler, with a high of 79. Wind E 7-15 mph.
2018: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 93. Wind ESE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 91. Wind SE at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind SSE at 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind SE at 5-10 mph.
2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind NNE 4-8 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 89. Wind ENE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 87. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind ENE 10-15 mph.
2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 89. Wind NNE at 6-12 mph. Friday: Clear skies with a high of 89. Wind N at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Hot and humid conditions with a high in the lower 90s. Calm NNE wind reaching 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the lower 90s. Wind E at 5-10 mph.
2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 88. Wind WSW at 7-12 mph. Friday: Mist and drizzle in between showers. High of 68. Wind NNE at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Rain showers all day with a high of 71. ENE wind at 7-12 mph. Sunday: Cloudy with a high of 74. Wind E at 7-12 mph.
2016 – Chappell/D Johnson/Matsuyama – Groups 7/8/15 -4/66.
2015 – Stenson – Group 14 -7/63.
2014 – Horschel/Kirk = Both Group 15 -4/66.
2013 – Stenson – Group 15 -6/64.
2012 – Rose/Woods – Groups 4 & 15 -4/66.
2011 – Bradley – Group 6 -6/64.
2010 – Casey/Donald/Ogilvy – Groups 10/12/13 -4/66.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
10 – Rory McIlroy.
8 – Scottie Scheffler.
6 – Justin Thomas.
4 – Sam Burns, Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk.
3 – Xander Schauffele.
2 – Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott.
1 – Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Keegan Bradley, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Aaron Rai, Sepp Straka.
The Tour Championship sees a FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index used, with the FedEx Cup standings leader starting the next week at -10, FEC Number 2 at -8, FEC Number 3 at -7, FEC Number 4 at -6 and Number 5 at -5. This then cascades down to those ranked 26th to 30th starting at Even par. Previous to 2019 at the Tour Championship, any player ranked 1-5 had the same chance of taking the overall FedEx Cup title by winning the title. So yes the FedEx Cup Playoff Standings leader has a tangible advantage over their fellow competitors when it comes to winning the season long FedEx race.
But recent history highlights that the FedEx Cup leader tends not to be the place you want to be when it comes to shooting the lowest score this week, if the 72-hole market – ignoring starting scores – is where your interest is this week. But more of that in a minute.
Across the 4 Tour Championships where the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index has been in operation, we’ve seen an even split in eventual FedEx Cup Champion starting position. 4/1 Patrick Cantlay won the Tour Championship in 2021, starting 1st in the FedEx Cup standings with that -10 starting score. Dustin Johnson won the Tour Championship at 15/8 in 2020, again starting 1st in the standings. On the opposite side of the equation is defending champion Viktor Hovland who started the week in 2nd spot, and one Rory McIlroy who won in 2019 starting in 5th spot and in 2023 starting in 7th spot.
But if we’re taking the starting scores out of the scenario this week then nobody leading the FedEx Cup standings has shot the lowest total at East Lake for a considerable length of time. 2023 saw a tie at -19/261 between Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, the latter starting down in 14th spot in the standings.
2022 saw Rory McIlroy shoot -17/263 on his way to capturing his 3rd FedEx Cup. 2021 saw a -14/266 total tie between Jon Rahm and Kevin Na. Rahm was the main challenger to Patrick Cantlay throughout. He started 4th in the FEC standings 4 shots back with a -6 starting score. Kevin Na was way down the standings at 19th starting at -2.
2020 saw Xander Schauffele enter the Tour Championship at 14th in the FedEx Cup standings (-3 start score), shooting -15/265 for the week – 4 shots lower than FedEx Champion Dustin Johnson.
Rory McIlroy entered the Tour Championship at Number 5 in the standings and at -5 on the leaderboard. He went on to shoot -13/267 for the week which was both good enough to capture the FedEx Cup overall and was also the lowest total for the week, beating Xander Schauffele by 3 shots in that regards,
Before the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index, Tiger Woods (Rank 20), Xander Schauffele (Rank 26), Rory McIlroy (Rank 6), Jordan Spieth (Rank 2), Billy Horschel (Rank 2), Henrik Stenson (Rank 2) and Brandt Snedeker (Rank 5) have won the Tour Championship since 2012. Bill Haas and Jim Furyk were in positions 25 and 11 respectively in the 2 years prior to that.
NO Selections This Week
As noted above, this week’s article is a preview only as Steve is on holiday and there are no selections. Steve will be back on the 9th September though with his Procore Championship tips.
