Tour Championship Tips 2023

 

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Well done if you were on Viktor Hovland at 18/1 (Monday price) at the BMW Championship last week. Despite having the Thursday and Friday leaders, I had to make do with full each-way payouts on Rory McIlroy (15/2) and Max Homa (20/1), utilising bet365 Each Way Extra at 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds.

Plenty of questions will be answered at East Lake Golf Club this week which hosts the 2022/23 PGA Tour season-ending Tour Championship. The FedEx Cup Series culminates in Georgia with the top 30 in the standings arriving in Atlanta with a shot at the overall title. 2023 is the fifth Tour Championship renewal where we will see the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index, with FedEx Cup standings Number 1 Scottie Scheffler starting the tournament at -10.

Qualifying for the Tour Championship is always a massive deal for players who don’t reside regularly in the OWGR top 50 with invites to next year’s Masters Tournament, U.S. Open and Open Championship the reward. So congratulations to Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Taylor Moore, Adam Schenk and Nick Taylor, all of whom are making their East Lake debuts.

The Tour Championship sees a FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index used, with the FedEx Cup standings leader starting the next week at -10, FEC Number 2 at -8, FEC Number 3 at -7, FEC Number 4 at -6 and Number 5 at -5. This then cascades down to those ranked 26th to 30th starting at Even.

Before we go into the detail surrounding the Tour Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia first hosted the Tour Championship in 1998. Back then the tournament alternated every year with the Champions Golf Club in Houston, but East Lake has been the sole host since 2004. The course is a Donald Ross original which had a Rees Jones renovation in 2008 that included a change from Bentgrass to faster MiniVerde Bermudagrass putting surfaces. This course tends to negate pure power and aggression, instead rewarding consistent ball-striking or excellent tactical play and putting from short-game experts comfortable on undulating Bermuda putting surfaces. Driving accuracy around here actually means something, with gnarly Bermudagrass rough that punishes on a set-up which features half a dozen 450+ yard par-4s. The course is a traditional Par 70 layout with only 2 par-5s. The 6th is reachable for all and the closing 18th is reachable for the power hitters.

Rees Jones-inspired course changes prior to the 2016 renewal saw 78 yards added to course yardage with new tees on both the 16th and 17th par-4s. In addition the sets of 9 holes were reversed, with the round now finishing with the 590 yard par-5 rather than the traditional par-3 closer. Rees Jones inspired the changes on the new 18th, with a larger tee box so that it may always be set up as a two-shot par-5, and a re-contoured landing area to prevent drives rolling into a water hazard on the right side of fairway. Plenty of work has been put in to ensure the chance of a more exciting finish.

East Lake Golf Club, East Atlanta, Georgia: Designer: Donald Ross 1913 with Rees Jones re-designs 2008 & 2016; Course Type: Mid-Score, Classical, Long; Par: 70; Length: 7,346 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 6; Fairways: Meyer Zoysiagrass; Rough: Tifway 419 Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: 5,619 sq.ft average featuring MiniVerde UltraDwarf Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.

Course Scoring Average: 2012: 70.42 (+0.42), Difficulty Rank 20 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.38 (-0.62), Difficulty Rank 20 of 43 courses. 2014: 70.26 (+0.26), Rank 20 of 48 courses. 2015: 70.38 (+0.38), Difficulty Rank 17 of 52 courses. 2016: 69.62 (-0.38), Difficulty Rank 27 of 50 courses. 2017: 69.38 (-0.62), Difficulty Rank 31 of 50. 2018: 69.62 (-0.38), Rank 24 of 51 courses. 2019: 70.03 (+0.03), Rank 14 of 49 courses. 2020: 68.92 (-1.08), Rank 24 of 41 courses. 2021: 68.81 (-1.19), Rank 37 of 51 courses. 2022: 67.91 (-2.10); Rank 44 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for East Lake and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
• Sedgefield: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26 325:23; 350:22.
• TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
• TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from tee: 41 yards wide; 275:40; 300:36 325:33; 350:30.
• TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• Champions Course – Southern Hills: Average 40 yards wide.
• TPC Potomac: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:27; 325:23; 350:27.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
• PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
• Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
• Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald Ross and Rees Jones re-designs include:

Donald Ross

• Aronimink – 2010/11 AT&T National & 2018 BMW Championship
• Detroit Golf Club –  Rocket Mortgage Classic
• East Course at Oak Hill – 2013 + 2023 PGA Championship
• Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 US Open
• Plainfield – 2011 & 2015 Barclays
• Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship

Rees Jones

• Aronimink GC – 2010,2011 A&T National + 2018 BMW Championship
• Baltusrol – 2016 PGA Championship
• Bellerive CC – 2018 PGA Championship
• Bethpage Black – 2009 U.S Open, 2019 PGA Championship + 2012/2016 The Barclays
• Blue Course, Congressional CC – 2011 U.S. Open + 2012-2014 & 2016 National
• Blue Course, Royal Montreal GC – 2014 RBC Canadian Open
• Dubsdread, Cog Hill GCC – 2009,2010,2011 BMW Championship
• GC of Houston – Houston Open
• Hazeltine – 2009 PGA Championship
• Highlands Course, Atlanta Athletic Club – 2011 PGA Championship
• Medinah Number 3 – 2019 BMW Championship
• Torrey Pines South Course – Farmers Insurance Open + 2008 U.S. Open + 2021 U.S. Open

Course Overview: East Lake is a long circa 7,400 yard, Par 70. The course’s main defence is fast MiniVerde Bermudagrass greens which feature the Donald Ross trademark back-to-front pitch surrounded by tightly mown run-offs into collection areas. The green complexes are fast (12+ on the Stimpmeter) and contoured. Downhill putts are difficult to attack and players constantly talk about positioning approach shots below the pin. Plenty of green complexes are also long and thin, making finding the putting surfaces tricky. East Lake is a traditional, old-school golf course that up until now hasn’t been overpowered by brute force and it has a definite Southern-States feel to it after weeks of up-country Bentgrass and Poa Annua green action, apart from TPC Southwind a fortnight ago.

Driving accuracy undoubtedly helps around here with fairways surrounded by trees and gnarly, tough Bermuda rough. Fairways are also pretty tight and feature quirky Meyer Zoysiagrass fairways which many players claim promotes flyers. On the PGA Tour, Zoysiagrass fairways also feature at TPC Southwind (FedEx St Jude or St Jude Classic prior) plus the AT&T Byron Nelson venues TPC Craig Ranch (current) and previous host venue Trinity Forest, which was planted from tee to green with Zoysiagrass. These fairways also featured at the 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Club and at Bellerive Country Club which hosted the 2018 PGA Championship. Zoysia isn’t the most popular of fairway grasses with many players who claim the quirky grass promotes flyers.

11 of the last 15 winners have been in the top 10 for fairways hit, but high Greens in Regulation numbers are also critical. Since the 2008 Rees Jones re-design, Rory McIlroy holds the tournament lowest total at -17/263 from 2022. Amazingly the Northern Irishman was +4 through his opening 4 holes on Thursday.

East Lake is one of those rare tests on the PGA Tour where accuracy from the tee needs to be respected, especially on a course which continually ranks in the top-third in terms of hardest to hit fairways on the Tour. Ball-striking wise, the last 13 lowest scorers (ignoring starting scores from 2019 onwards) here have ranked: McIlroy 1st, Na 13th, Rahm 2nd, Schauffele 9th, McIlroy 2nd, Woods 6th, Schauffele 3rd, McIlroy 3rd, Spieth 7th, Horschel 9th, Stenson 8th, Snedeker 5th, Haas 3rd and Furyk 3rd.

From a Strokes Gained Off the Tee perspective, ranks look like this: McIlroy 5th, Rahm 4th, Schauffele 5th, McIlroy 1st, Woods 6th, Schauffele 1st, McIlroy, 1st, Spieth 3rd, Horschel 7th, Stenson 16th, Snedeker 5th, Haas 5th and Furyk 14th. Naturally Kevin Na in 2021 broke the mould by ranking 24th out of 30 for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, but where he was trademark short off the tee, he was also arrow straight ranking 3rd for Fairways Hit.

So hitting both fairways and greens here is a prerequisite for victory. That solid core of play both with tee shots and approach shots is magnified on the basis that East Lake always ranks in the top-half for scrambling difficulty on the PGA Tour. This is a course to be respected, although the last 2 years has seen a significant easing in difficulty.

Tour Championship Winners: 2022: Rory McIlroy (-21) & Rory McIlroy 72-Hole (-17); 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-21) & Kevin Na / Jon Rahm 72-Hole (-14); 2020: Dustin Johnson (-21) & Xander Schauffele 72-Hole (-15); 2019: Rory McIlroy (-18) & Rory McIlroy 72-Hole (-13); 2018: Tiger Woods (-11); 2017: Xander Schauffele (-12); 2016: Rory McIlroy (-12); 2015: Jordan Spieth (-9); 2014: Billy Horschel (-11); 2013: Henrik Stenson (-13); 2012: Brandt Snedeker (-10); 2011: Bill Haas (-9); 2010: Jim Furyk (-8).

OWGR of Tour Championship Winners: 2022: McIlroy 4; 2021: Cantlay 4; 2020: D Johnson 1; 2019: McIlroy 2.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Max Homa, Lucas Glover and Sungjae Im.

Tour Championship Winning Prices: 2022: Rory McIlroy 12/1 – 72-Hole Rory McIlroy 8/1F; 2021: Patrick Cantlay 4/1 – 72-Hole Kevin Na 70/1 & Jon Rahm 7/1; 2020: Dustin Johnson 15/8 – 72-Hole Xander Schauffele 12/1; 2019: Rory McIlroy 9/1 – 72-Hole Rory McIlroy 8/1; 2018: Tiger Woods 14/1; 2017: Xander Schauffele 100/1; 2016: McIlroy 13/2; 2015: Spieth 9/1; 2014: Horschel 25/1; 2013: Stenson 16/1; 2012: Snedeker 40/1; 2011: Haas 45/1; 2010: Furyk 20/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2022: Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered Showers. High of 80. Wind S 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were utilized in round one. Friday: Partly Cloudy. High of 85. Wind S 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were utilized in round two. Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High of 88. Wind SE 4-8 mph. The third round was suspended due to inclement weather at 1:29 p.m. ET Saturday and resumed at 2:25 p.m. (56 minutes). Play was again suspended at 6:36 p.m. ET and was eventually called for the day, with 14 players yet to complete their rounds. Sunday: The third round resumed at 9:45 a.m. ET Sunday and was completed at 11:03 a.m. Mostly Sunny. High of 88. Wind ESE 7-14 mph.
• 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 84. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 84. Wind SE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 86. Wind WSW 4-8 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 92. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, less humid with a high of 87. Wind N 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny skies with temperatures reaching into the mid-80s. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 86. Wind E 5-10 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 93. Wind SW at 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 91. Wind W/SW 10-15 mph. Due to inclement weather, round two was suspended from 4:07 p.m. until 5:33 p.m. (1 hour, 26 minutes). Saturday: Round three resumed as scheduled at 8 a.m. Widely scattered passing showers throughout the day. High of 79. Wind E 7-15 mph. Sunday: Overcast and cooler, with a high of 79. Wind E 7-15 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Sunny with a high of 93. Wind ESE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny with a high of 91. Wind SE at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind SSE at 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind SE at 5-10 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind NNE 4-8 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 89. Wind ENE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 87. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high of 85. Wind ENE 10-15 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 89. Wind NNE at 6-12 mph. Friday: Clear skies with a high of 89. Wind N at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Hot and humid conditions with a high in the lower 90s. Calm NNE wind reaching 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the lower 90s. Wind E at 5-10 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 88. Wind WSW at 7-12 mph. Friday: Mist and drizzle in between showers. High of 68. Wind NNE at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Rain showers all day with a high of 71. ENE wind at 7-12 mph. Sunday: Cloudy with a high of 74. Wind E at 7-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for East Atlanta, Georgia, is here.

First point to highlight is that Atlanta hasn’t seen too much rain since the start of June. 131mm (5.15 inches) of rain is much less than we saw 12 months ago, before the heavens opened on Wednesday night pre-tournament to fully soak the course. Believe the forecast and no rain will arrive throughout tournament week, so expect fast running fairways at the very least. With 34-40 degree Celsius (93-104 Fahrenheit) temperatures throughout the tournament expect greens to be watered, but we know that the greens here have Sub-Air so can be set to release. Wind won’t be a factor this week, so in my mind this will be a -13 to -15 scoring test this week.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 20 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Rocket Mortgage Classic / Betfred British Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Patrick Cantlay / Corey Conners / Max Homa; 6) Collin Morikawa; 7) Viktor Hovland; 8) Jason Day; 9) Jon Rahm; 10) Si Woo Kim; 11) Lucas Glover; 12) Wyndham Clark; 13) Jordan Spieth; 14) Tommy Fleetwood; 15) Emiliano Grillo; 16) Brian Harman / Russell Henley; 18) Xander Schauffele; 19) Rickie Fowler; 20) Keegan Bradley.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Lucas Glover; 4) Viktor Hovland; 5) Tommy Fleetwood; 6) Xander Schauffele; 7) Tyrrell Hatton; 8) Jon Rahm; 9) Russell Henley; 10) Keegan Bradley; 11) Rickie Fowler / Si Woo Kim; 13) Max Homa / Collin Morikawa; 15) Tom Kim; 16) Sepp Straka; 17) Matt Fitzpatrick / Brian Harman; 19) Wyndham Clark / Adam Schenk.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Collin Morikawa; 2) Jordan Spieth; 3) Patrick Cantlay; 4) Jason Day; 5) Tyrrell Hatton; 6) Tommy Fleetwood / Scottie Scheffler; 8) Jon Rahm; 9) Wyndham Clark; 10) Taylor Moore; 11) Corey Conners; 12) Si Woo Kim; 13) Rory McIlroy; 14) Sam Burns / Emiliano Grillo / Brian Harman / Russell Henley; 18) Max Homa; 19) Sungjae Im; 20) Tom Kim.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Viktor Hovland; 4) Lucas Glover; 5) Max Homa; 6) Collin Morikawa; 7) Tommy Fleetwood; 8) Russell Henley; 9) Patrick Cantlay; 10) Tyrrell Hatton; 11) Brian Harman; 12) Wyndham Clark / Jon Rahm; 14) Corey Conners / Si Woo Kim; 16) Xander Schauffele; 17) Jason Day / Jordan Spieth; 19) Sungjae Im; 20) Emiliano Grillo.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brian Harman; 2) Tommy Fleetwood; 3) Jon Rahm; 4) Tom Kim; 5) Rickie Fowler; 6) Jason Day / Matt Fitzpatrick; 8) Sam Burns; 9) Emiliano Grillo; 10) Rory McIlroy; 11) Corey Conners; 12) Viktor Hovland / Xander Schauffele; 14) Lucas Glover; 15) Max Homa; 16) Tyrrell Hatton; 17) Adam Schenk; 18) Keegan Bradley; 19) Sepp Straka; 20) Taylor Moore.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Rory McIlroy; 2) Max Homa / Tommy Fleetwood; 4) Brian Harman; 5) Viktor Hovland; 6) Lucas Glover / Scottie Scheffler; 8) Corey Conners; 9) Xander Schauffele; 10) Jon Rahm; 11) Collin Morikawa; 12) Tyrrell Hatton / Tom Kim; 14) Patrick Cantlay / Russell Henley; 16) Rickie Fowler; 17) Emiliano Grillo; 18)  Jason Day; 19) Sam Burns / Wyndham Clark.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the 72-hole winner here at East Lake since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

Note Kevin Na and Jon Rahm tied at -14/266 as the 72-hole leaders in 2021.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2022, Rory McIlroy (-17). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 19th, SG Tee to Green: 13th, SG Putting: 2nd.
• 2021, Jon Rahm (-14). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 22nd, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 4th.
• 2021, Kevin Na (-14). SG Off the Tee: 24th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 5th.
• 2020, Xander Schauffele (-15). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 17th, SG Around the Green: 11th, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 2nd.
• 2019, Rory McIlroy (-13). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 11th.
• 2018, Tiger Woods (-11). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 2nd.
• 2017, Xander Schauffele (-12). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 15th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 13th.
• 2016, Rory McIlroy (-12). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 9th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 6th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final traditional stats of the 72-hole winner here at East Lake since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2022, Rory McIlroy (-17). 334 yards (1st), 60.7% fairways (10th), 75.0% greens in regulation (4th), 32″5″ proximity to hole (13th), 55.6% scrambling (23rd), 1.56 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2021, Jon Rahm (-14). 313 yards (5th), 60.7% fairways (10th), 70.8% greens in regulation (7th), 33″1″ proximity to hole (8th), 81.0% scrambling (2nd), 1.71 putts per GIR (12th).
• 2021, Kevin Na (-14). 290 yards (28th), 66.1% fairways (3rd), 69.4% greens in regulation (8th), 32″1″ proximity to hole (3rd), 95.5% scrambling (1st), 1.74 putts per GIR (21st).
• 2020, Xander Schauffele (-15). 303 yards (15th), 53.6% fairways (16th), 69.4% greens in regulation (5th), 34″10″ proximity to hole (14th), 77.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2019, Rory McIlroy (-13). 306 yards (8th), 64.3% fairways (3rd), 69.4% greens in regulation (5th), 34″3″ proximity to hole (12th), 68.2% scrambling (5th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2018, Tiger Woods (-11). 304 yards (13th), 64.3% fairways (3rd), 66.7% greens in regulation (14th), 34″3″ proximity to hole (16th), 70.8% scrambling (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2017, Xander Schauffele (-12). 315 yards (5th), 60.7% fairways (9th), 70.8% greens in regulation (6th), 36″4″ proximity to hole (21st), 66.7 % scrambling (7th), 1.75 putts per GIR (14th).
• 2016, Rory McIlroy (-12). 315 yards (3rd), 53.6% fairways (11th), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 31″4″ proximity to hole (4th), 56.3 % scrambling (13th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2015, Jordan Spieth (-9). 282 yards (16th), 64.3% fairways (7th), 65.3% greens in regulation (9th), 33″4″ proximity to hole (4th), 66.7 % scrambling (8th), 1.72 putts per GIR (9th).
• 2014, Billy Horschel (-11). 296 yards (12th), 51.8% fairways (21st), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 32″0″ proximity to hole (6th), 66.7 % scrambling (8th), 1.74 putts per GIR (13th).
• 2013, Henrik Stenson (-13). 285 yards (27th), 64.3% fairways (3rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 37″11″ proximity to hole (22nd), 62.5% scrambling (10th), 1.66 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2012, Brandt Snedeker (-10). 294 yards (18th), 66.1% fairways (2nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (8th), 31″4″ proximity to hole (1st), 63.6% scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2011, Bill Haas (-9). 300 yards (9th), 62.5% fairways (5th), 69.4% greens in regulation (11th), 39″4″ proximity to hole (26th), 40.9% scrambling (24th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2010, Jim Furyk(-8). 290 yards (22nd), 57.1% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (1st), 38″4″ proximity to hole (25th), 68.4% scrambling (1st), 1.81 putts per GIR (20th).

Traditional Skill Set Averages:

• Driving Distance: 13th, Driving Accuracy: 8th, Greens in Regulation: 6th, Proximity to Hole: 12th, Scrambling: 8th, Putting Average 7th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how East Lake sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Rory McIlroy (2022): “Not really. Yeah, I got off to the worst start possible. We got a little unfortunate that we teed off in that big downpour earlier in the day. I tried to guide sort of this little peeler into the fairway at the 1st and complete double-crossed, body stopped. So, yeah, not the best way to start, but battled back well. The golf course is really soft and really gettable, so I knew there was a lot of holes out there that you could birdie. I knew my game was good, it was just one of those things. But not the ideal way to start, but proud of how I bounced back from that. I would have been happy just to get back to even par after the first few holes, but to shoot 3-under was great.”

“This golf course, again, it is what it is. I don’t think you can be overly aggressive because you can put yourself in some bad spots, especially with the Bermuda rough and how unpredictable that is. You still have to play a controlled round of golf and be disciplined, but there’s still a way to marry being disciplined with shooting a low score, and that’s what I did over the last couple days.”

Patrick Cantlay (2021): “ I think controlling your golf ball out here is really important and I think leaving the golf ball below the hole because the greens are very fast and undulated, so that gives you a chance to be aggressive with some of your looks. I think hitting the ball in the fairway is really important out here because the rough being Bermuda and being long it gets really hard to leave your golf ball in the right spot if you get off track and you hit it in the rough. So I think controlling your golf ball and staying below the hole and hitting a bunch of fairways is a recipe for success around this golf course.

I thought my opening two rounds were very similar, mostly mistake-free, both rounds, and I hit the ball pretty well, kept the ball in control, fat side mostly, and had really nice speed on the greens and just didn’t make very much. But that can kind of be this golf course because of the degree of slope they put the pins on is very extreme. So you have putts and you might be 10, 12 feet, but you almost have to be a little defensive or at least you have to be careful because the pins are on so much slope. But I thought it was a good start. I’m playing really well and I think I’m playing the golf course the right way.

You don’t ever really want to press because it’s that classic golf course where you don’t want to short side yourself, you don’t want to hit it over greens, so staying really diligent and hitting the ball to the fat side I think is a good recipe for success around this place.

I think I’ve gotten all the par-5s so far, four birdies on the four par-5s I’ve played, and it’s important around this golf course because the 5s are gettable”

Dustin Johnson (2020): “The 18th is a great closing hole. You can make a 3, actually it’s hard to make a 3. You don’t see a lot of those during the week, just because it’s always hard to get it close to the hole. It’s a tough drive. You have to hit the fairway if you want any shot at knocking it on the green. I mean, that’s first and foremost. The rough here is always brutal, and you never get a good lie ever. You have to hit the fairway, and then once you do hit the fairway, you’ve got to hit a perfect iron shot if you want to get it on the green. It makes it a difficult hole. But you have a chance. You can get it, depending on which way the wind is blowing, you can get a mid-iron in your hand coming into the green. But again, like I said, it’s hard to hit the green.

Round 1, it was okay. I mean, I scored well. I gave myself a few looks, but I need to hit some more fairways. That’s just the key out here is driving, if you can drive it in the fairway, you can shoot a good score. The greens are so good, and the only way to control the golf ball coming into the greens is hitting out of the fairway. That’s the only thing I need to do a little better tomorrow. It wasn’t like I was way off or anything. Just hit quite a few drives just in the rough, which is no good around here.”

Rory McIlroy (2019): ” I started pretty well. I had pretty decent opportunities on the first three holes and didn’t make them and then made a nice one on 4. The greens are so fast, and the greens are getting a little firm. It’s difficult at times to put yourself on the right side of the pin. I felt like I had a lot of putts today from 15 to 20 feet, but you’re just being so defensive with them. You’re just rolling them down the hill, hoping — with good speed, hoping that they might drop. I think, because you’re hitting them so easily or slowly, they take a lot more break as well. So I missed a lot of those downhill ones a little low. So that’s something to just sort of, for me to pay attention to the next few days.

You don’t hit fairways, and with this Bermuda rough, you have no control of your golf ball. You’re sort of guessing whether it’s going to fly or whether it’s going to come out soft. So you need your scrambling boots on this week, and I scrambled well, and I think I only made two bogeys over the first 36 holes, which is a big key to doing well around here.”

Tiger Woods (2018): “Well, these have been some of the – once they’ve redone the greens and went away from bent, some of the best Bermuda greens we’ll ever putt on. They’re as smooth as you can ever ask for. But in general, this golf course is a ball striker’s course. I mean, you’ve got to hit your golf ball well. You’ve got to drive it well, place your irons correctly. But it really does set up for a good ball striker. For most of my career, that’s basically what I’ve done. It’s hard to get the ball close here. There’s so much chase in it. If you drive the ball in the rough, you know you can’t get the ball close. The Bermuda rough, you just can’t control it. It puts a premium on driving and puts a premium on allowing for a little bit of chase on some of these greens. When I had some good looks, I went right after it, and otherwise I played pretty conservatively.

Well, it’s not like we faced a couple weeks ago at a soft Aronimink, when you felt uncomfortable firing at 18 straight flags. Here we’re playing a little bit more conservatively and working the ball in there, and take your par. Dump it and move on. The scores are indicative of that. The guys aren’t going to be running away with this. The golf course is just too difficult and too hard.”

Rory McIlroy: “I actually thought with the way they switched the nines, it’s going to be – it’s a bit of a slog because you’ve got your first par 5 on the 6th hole, and then you don’t have the par 5 again until the 18th. So you have to play a lot of good golf to make birdies. Fortunately, I did. I hit some fairways on the front nine and made some putts. Yeah, I think it makes it — I think the flow of the golf course has gotten more difficult. Obviously, you’re playing the same amount of holes, but the way you’re playing the holes just, it makes the flow of the golf course a little harder, I think. I think that’s why you’re not seeing so many low scores. It’s a tough golf course. You’ve got to hit fairways. But once you get it on the fairway, you have chances to score.

Yeah, like any golf course, if you hit fairways and you hit greens, it’s not that difficult, but when you start to get yourself out of position, especially they’ve let this Bermuda rough just get up a little bit, and it just takes all control out of your hands with your second shot. So I’ve only hit basically half of the fairways this week. When you do that, you’re going to struggle. But I have been aggressive off the tee. I’ve been hitting driver quite a lot. There was some holes where I was hitting drivers where Paul was just hitting a 3 wood. But I feel like I’ve been driving the ball really well the last couple of weeks and feel confident with that club. So I’m going to keep hitting it.”

Jordan Spieth: “I like to come to a place that I look at as very similar to Augusta National. I think the layout, the feel, the slopes, it reminds me a lot of it. I said it from after the first time I played Augusta, and then came back here last year, said, wow, this actually is somewhat similar. Just by the look of it. Obviously the greens are different and the bunkers are a bit different, but it has a very similar look and layout in my mind. And I really like this place. I like this place. I played solid two years ago. I know how to attack this golf course. I’ve been here before and attacked it the right way. This Bermuda can get a hold of you, you got to play it the right way, you got to be very careful about where you’re leaving the ball. And I believe on these greens, that I can get back to the way that I’ve been putting and that I believe that I should be able to putt because these are the type of greens I grew up on. So I feel very comfortable.”

Brandt Snedeker: “This set of par 3s that we play at East Lake is probably the toughest set of par 3s we play all year on tour. I think all four of them are ranked in the top nine toughest holes on the golf course which we don’t see very often. Most important element here is hitting the fairways. If you don’t hit the fairways here, you can’t be aggressive. You can’t be aggressive if you put the ball in bad spots and you make bogeys. But the green complexes here are so severe. They’re probably the second most severe we play all year compared to Augusta. That’s where it’s going to be won or lost this year is where you play around the greens. Hardest hole every year is 16, 17, 18, that stretch of holes. Those three holes always play the most difficult, I think, just coming down the stretch because so much can happen. 17 is a really tough par 4. Tough tee shot, tough second shot. And 18 is an iconic par 3, the way it is. Always a tough finish. It’s tough coming down those few holes, it seems like. And the guys that play those holes the best can end up winning.”

Henrik Stenson: “It’s still kind of important to hit the fairways and you leave yourself the right path. It’s crucial to be underneath the hole around here because even with a bit of rain and so on, you still get a lot of slick putts if you’re above the hole. It’s one of those courses, I think, if you’re on the wrong hole, you’re trying to attack too much, it can come back and bite you straight away. It’s got some real long holes, some tough holes. The greens are really slick if you’re coming down the hill. So it’s key to keep the ball underneath the hole. So good approach play is going to pay off for sure. You know, I didn’t grow up on Bermuda. So it might not be my best surface to pitch from and so on. So to hit a lot of greens is going to be crucial to do well. I don’t think the scoring has been that low here in the past either. I think it’s a golf course that kind of keeps the scoring pretty much under control.”

Jim Furyk: “A lot of the defence of this golf course really is the Bermuda rough. You have to hit fairways. Some of them are very thin and very difficult to hit. 16 comes to mind. And then also I’d say the severity of the greens. They’re very quick. And they have a lot of slope from back to front and I hit a lot of putts today where I had 20 footers for birdie and really was putting extremely defensive because I was above the pin on the wrong side of the hole. And it’s tough to stay patient. You got a short iron in your hand, whip one in there 15, 18 feet behind the hole and you realize it’s really not a great opportunity for birdie. And it’s similar to the style of greens I grew up on, pitching very severe from back to front. But it’s tough to make putts because you have a lot of putts that have a lot of break to them.”

Chris Kirk: “I’d say this course and Boston are probably the most similar as far as it’s a lot of drivers and it’s a long golf course and not a whole lot of wedges in. So it’s going to favour guys that are hitting their drivers real well and obviously putting well. These greens, like I said, are in perfect shape. They are very, very tricky to read with the grain, and the ball doesn’t generally go with the grain, but not always. So it can be despite how perfect they roll, they can be tough.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions of Tour Championship winners since 2010:

• 2022 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2020 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st,  Round 3: 1st.
• 2019 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2018 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2017 – Xander Schauffele: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2016 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Henrik Stenson: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 10th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Bill Haas: Round 1: 10th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of Tour Championship winners since 2010:

• 2022 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: 9 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2021 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2020 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: level, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
• 2019 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2018 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: level, Round 2: level, Round 3: 3 ahead.
• 2017 – Xander Schauffele: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2016 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2014 – Billy Horschel: Round 1: level, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: level.
• 2013 – Henrik Stenson: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 4 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
• 2012 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: level.
• 2011 – Bill Haas: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2010 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 ahead.

Incoming form of Tour Championship winners since 2010:

• Rory McIlroy: 8th BMW/MC St Jude/3rd Open/19th Travelers.
• Patrick Cantlay: 1st BMW/11th Northern Trust/23rd St Jude/MC Open.
• Dustin Johnson: 2nd BMW/1st Northern Trust/2nd PGA/12th St Jude.
• Rory McIlroy: 19th BMW/6th Northern Trust/4th St Jude/MC Open.
• Tiger Woods: 6th BMW/24th Dell Tech/40th Northern Trust/2nd PGA.
• Xander Schauffele: 20th BMW/53rd Dell Tech/17th Northern Trust/MC PGA.
• Rory McIlroy: 42nd BMW/1st Deutsche/31st Barclays/MC PGA.
• Jordan Spieth: 13th BMW/MC Deutsche/MC Barclays/2nd PGA.
• Billy Horschel: 1st BMW/2nd Deutsche/MC Barclays/47th Wyndham.
• Henrik Stenson: 33rd BMW/1st Deutsche/43rd Barclays/3rd PGA.
• Brandt Snedeker: 37th BMW/6th Deutsche/2nd Barclays/28th Wyndham.
• Bill Haas: 16th BMW/61st Deutsche/24th Barclays/MC Wyndham.
• Jim Furyk: 15th BMW/37th Deutsche/24th PGA/15th Bridgestone.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2022 – Scheffler – Group 15 -15 (Total) – 5/6.
• 2021 – Cantlay – Group 15 -13 (Total) – 10/11.
• 2020 – Johnson/Rahm – Group 15 -13 (Total) – 5/6 & 3/1.
• 2019 – Koepka/Schauffele/Thomas – Groups 13, 14 & 15 -10 (Total) – 11/2, 22/1 & 4/6.
• 2018 – Fowler/Woods – Groups 4 & 6 -5/65 – 20/1 & 16/1.
• 2017 – Stanley – Group 5 -6/64.
• 2016 – Chappell/D Johnson/Matsuyama – Groups 7/8/15 -4/66.
• 2015 – Stenson – Group 14 -7/63.
• 2014 – Horschel/Kirk = Both Group 15 -4/66.
• 2013 – Stenson – Group 15 -6/64.
• 2012 – Rose/Woods – Groups 4 & 15 -4/66.
• 2011 – Bradley – Group 6 -6/64.
• 2010 – Casey/Donald/Ogilvy – Groups 10/12/13 -4/66.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 8 – Rory McIlroy.
• 5 – Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth.
• 4 – Sam Burns, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, Jon Rahm.
• 3 – Xander Schauffele.
• 2 – Patrick Cantlay, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Russell Henley.
• 1 – Keegan Bradley, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Taylor Moore, Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka, Nick Taylor.

The Tour Championship sees a FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index used, with the FedEx Cup standings leader starting the next week at -10, FEC Number 2 at -8, FEC Number 3 at -7, FEC Number 4 at -6 and Number 5 at -5. This then cascades down to those ranked 26th to 30th starting at Even. Previous to 2019 at the Tour Championship, any player ranked 1-5 had the same chance of taking the overall FedEx Cup title by winning the title. So yes the FedEx Cup Playoff Standings leader has a tangible advantage over their fellow competitors when it comes to winning the season long FedEx race.

But recent history highlights that the FedEx Cup leader tends to not be the place you want to be when it comes to shooting the lowest score this week, if the 72-hole market ignoring starting scores is where your interest is this week. But more of that in a minute.

Across the 4 Tour Championships where the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index has been in operation, we have seen an even split in eventual FedEx Cup Champion starting position. 4/1 Patrick Cantlay won the Tour Championship in 2021, starting 1st in the FedEx Cup standings with that -10 starting score. Dustin Johnson won the Tour Championship at 15/8 in 2020, again starting 1st in the standings. On the opposite side of the equation is one Rory McIlroy who won in 2019 starting in 5th spot and in 2023 starting in 7th spot.

But if we are taking the starting scores out of the scenario this week then nobody leading the FedEx Cup standings has shot the lowest total at East Lake for a considerable length of time. 2022 saw Rory McIlroy shoot -17/263 on his way to capturing his 3rd FedEx Cup. 2021 saw a -14/266 total tie between Jon Rahm and Kevin Na. Rahm was the main challenger to Patrick Cantlay throughout. He started 4th in the FEC standings 4 shots back with a -6 starting score. Kevin Na was way down the standings at 19th starting at -2.

2020 saw Xander Schauffele enter the Tour Championship at 14th in the FedEx Cup standings (-3 start score), shooting -15/265 for the week – 4 shots lower than FedEx Champion Dustin Johnson.

Rory McIlroy entered the Tour Championship at Number 5 in the standings and at -5 on the leaderboard. He went onto shoot -13/267 for the week which was both good enough to capture the FedEx Cup overall and was also the lowest total for the week, beating Xander Schauffele by 3 shots in that regards,

Before the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index, Tiger Woods (Rank 20), Xander Schauffele (Rank 26), Rory McIlroy (Rank 6), Jordan Spieth (Rank 2), Billy Horschel (Rank 2), Henrik Stenson (Rank 2) and Brandt Snedeker (Rank 5) have won the Tour Championship since 2012. Bill Haas and Jim Furyk were in positions 25 and 11 respectively in the 2 years prior to that.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:40BST 21.8.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.