Turkish Airlines Open Tips 2019

Having been let down by a couple of short prices over the past couple of weeks in Matt Wallace and Hideki Matsuyama, I’m swerving the top of the market here this week in Turkey. Just Rose will be the talk of the town of course as he looks to join an elite band of players who’ve won the same event 3 times in succession, however aside from the pressure that achieving that feat might bring, he’s also going to need to improve considerably with his approach play to compile a winning score here this week.

Tyrrell Hatton’s flying round of 65 to close in Shanghai hasn’t gone unnoticed by the bookies, otherwise I might have taken a chance on him; instead I’m backing Victor Perez at a far longer price who’s already captured a classy event this season when he broke his European Tour maiden at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

As ever in golf betting, finding some correlation between courses and events can lead a punter down a certain path and with the Montgomerie Maxx perhaps there’s enough crossover with the Dunhill Links to pursue that train of thought. With the 3 events held here between 2013 and 2015, the 2 winners Victor Dubuisson and Brooks Koepka have 5 top-10 Dunhill Links finishes between them from just 11 combined starts, so siding with this year’s victor may not be a bad place to start.

Of course there’s no back story this week for Perez like there was at St Andrews, at least not to my knowledge, however now that the dust has settled it appears that the European Tour rookie has his sights set on another victory and one which would surely add his name to the Henry Cotton shortlist if he were to win here or in the following 2 weeks.

16^th at Le Golf National was a strong effort coming just a few weeks after his breakthrough success, however it was last week’s 4^th place finish at Sheshan on his WGC debut which gets him the nod here. 65 to open and 66 to close was an impressive performance and driven by a field-leading effort on the par-5s; that should give him massive confidence on the longer holes here this week which are so pivotal to success.

At 58^th in the OWGR, Victor now has a very realistic chance of breaking into the world’s top-50 before year end and that’s massive for a player who’s yet to complete his rookie season. Averaging over 300 yards from off the tee and ranking 13^th for Strokes Gained Approach is an ideal combination for this layout and with so much for him still to play for, I can see him becoming another French success story here at the Montgomerie Maxx. Result: 2nd, lost play-off

If there’s course form correlation between the Dunhill Links and those 3 events held here at the Montgomerie Maxx, then the same can be said of the DP World Tour Championship which is hosted at the Earth Course. Now there may be an element of the obvious in this as the same cast will largely play these limited field, season-ending events, however there’s enough crossover to give Kiradech Aphibarnrat the nod here this week.

2-time winner here Victor Dubuisson has a sparkling record at the Earth Course with 3 top-4 finishes to his name, plus with names like Justin Rose, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson, Andy Sullivan, Danny Willett and Rory McIlroy all having either won or finished runner-up in Dubai as well as having featured here, there’s enough crossover to investigate further in my view. Of the players teeing it up this week who already have a top-5 to their name at the Earth Course, Kiradech holds the most appeal for me given he’s finished 2^nd and 9^th on his last 2 Dubai outings and may just be rounding into some form heading into this week.

2019 hasn’t been the best for the burly Thai, despite starting the year as a full member on the PGA Tour and racking up early top-5 finishes at the WGC Mexico Championship and Byron Nelson Championship. Lots of dross in between times has seen Aphibarnrat slip outside the OWGR top-50 for the first time since the start of 2018 and if he’s going to regain that position for the end of the year then he needs to take action fast. 8^th behind Justin Thomas at the CJ Cup on his last start was a much improved result though, driven by massively improved par-5 scoring and a rank of 4^th for ball-striking, both of which fit nicely for this week.

One thing we know with the 30 year-old is that he’s an outstanding putter when on his game who’s capable of making the requisite birdies here to contend, which is reinforced by the fact that he finished 3^rd here at the Montgomerie Maxx in 2015, ranking 6^th for putting in the process. Most of his career wins have come within a few weeks of a decent performance which hinted at some good form, and with plenty of reasons to perform I suspect we’ll see a strong effort from Aphibarnrat this week. Result: T56

Adri Arnaus was tempting this week as he seeks to break through at European Tour level, however at twice the price I’m happy to back Guido Migliozzi who falls into a very similar category to Arnaus in my mind, yet has already notched 2 trophies this season as he looks to win the Henry Cotton Rookie of the Year award.

As well as his 2019 successes at the Magical Kenya Open and Belgian Knockout, the talented Italian also has 3 Alps Tour titles to his name and at the age of 22 has already proven himself to be one of those golfers who’s simply not afraid to win. Consistency is something that will come in his game as he matures and sees courses multiple times, however for now his good weeks are seemingly interspersed with plenty of bad weeks which makes him perfect for an outside punt. The fact that this course hasn’t been used for the past 3 renewals will be somewhat of a leveller and I suspect that he’ll like what he sees when he arrives here in Antalya.

Since he last tasted victory in Belgium, Guido has finished 7^th at the European Open in Germany and 14^th last time out in Portugal on two tracks that encourage a little more aggression from off the tee in order to score well. That effort at Vilamoura saw his best performance with his irons for 3 months as he ranked 4^th for GIR as well as 2^nd for par-5 scoring on the week. A closing round of 65 sets him nicely for this week and with a season-long ranking of 9^th for Strokes Gained Approach, I can see him going very nicely indeed this week.Result: T10

Finally, despite finishing in a solid 22^nd place last week at WGC level, the price of Masahiro Kawamura has barely shifted and that’s doing the Japanese star a disservice in my view. Rounds of 66/69 over the weekend matched eventual Sheshan winner Rory McIlroy’s final 2 round total and the 26 year-old recorded a big personal best at WGC level as a result, 6 years after making his debut at that level on the same course.

Kawamura has only one professional title to his name thus far – the 2013 Asia Pacific Panasonic Open – however there have been strong signs over the past 18 months that he’s going to add to his tally sooner rather than later. 3 runner-up finishes on the Japan Tour last year and a further 2^nd place finish in 2019, this time at European Tour level at the Indian Open, show that he’s well capable of getting into a position to convert and at some point that door is likely to open on a Sunday afternoon. 7^th at the Spanish Open last month behind Jon Rahm is positive recent form and with a solid effort in the Japan Open before his aforementioned finish last week, he could be warming up nicely for another strong finish at a juicy price on course debut.

Averaging a touch under 300 yards off the tee for the season-to-date means that he’ll have the opportunity to attack the par-5s here at the Montgomerie Maxx and twice in his last 5 starts he’s produced excellent totals on the long holes, shooting -12 on the par-5s both in Spain and also a couple of starts before that when he finished 9^th on the PGTI. At 54^th on the Race to Dubai he needs one final effort to secure his spot at the Earth Course in a fortnight’s time, so I’m expecting him to significantly outperform his odds here this week. Result: T46