Check out our First Round Leader form stats, history stats and tee times here.
The First Round Leader (FRL) market is fascinating given there are many ways to review the data to hand.
How does the weather forecast impact conditions? Will it be softer earlier, firmer later, windier for some, warmer for others? What tee times have the recent FRL winners had? Have the recent FRL winners started well in this event in the past? Have the recent FRL winners started well in their recent events; have they even been playing well in recent events?
Lots of questions and the odd red herring along the way I’m sure, however I think there are a few factors to consider which might help point us in the right direction.
The latest weather forecast for Pinehurst is here.
Thursday will be perfect for playing golf with barely a cloud in the sky and only a breath of wind all day. Temperatures will rise from around 21 Centigrade (70 Fahrenheit) for the early starters to 31 Centigrade (88 Fahrenheit) for those teeing off in the afternoon.
First up some history and going back to 2011 the morning wave has produced 12 of the 19 players who either led or co-led after day 1 in this event, including last year when Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele both shot incredible rounds of 62 to co-lead from 8:02 and 8:24am tee times respectively.
The exceptions to the rule were Rory McIlroy who shot 65 to lead on his own in 2011; Martin Kaymer who equalled that score 3 years later; Scott Piercy and Ian Poulter who tied for the lead with Dustin Johnson and Russell Henley courtesy of rounds of 69 in 2018; Justin Rose who shot 65 in 2019 from an afternoon tee time at Pebble Beach; Louis Oosthuizen who equalled Russell Henley’s earlier round of 67 from a 1.47pm tee time at Torrey Pines; and Adam Hadwin whose 66 the year before last beat a quartet of players who’d already posted 67 in the morning.
You’ll notice the name of Martin Kaymer nestled in there which relates to his effort here at Pinehurst No.2 in 2014, where he led by 3 after the first round and never looked back. That was from a 1.47pm tee time with the course playing a little more receptive than had been anticipated on the first day a decade ago. The top 5 after day 1 in 2014 were as follows:
- Martin Kaymer, 65: 1.47pm
- Graeme McDowell, 68: 7.40am
- Kevin Na, 68: 7.18am
- Brendon de Jonge, 68: 1.14pm
- Frann Quinn, 68: 2.31pm
With nothing untoward in the weather forecast, the only conceivable advantage that the morning wave could have is slightly softer greens which may be offset by warmer temperatures in the afternoon, as it was 10 years ago. For me, I’ll balance my team 2 to 1 in favour of the early starters in case the greens firm up enough in the afternoon to make it that much tougher.
As per the outright market, there’s some each-way value to be found in the FRL market too with Unibet offering 7 places each way, 1/5 odds for this market, and I’ve used them for all 3 of my bets. Details of their new customer offer can be found below:
