US Open Longshots 2021

Strictly speaking, I’d ordinarily start a longshots preview with a 3-figure chance, however I’ll bend that rule slightly here with Adam Scott who I can’t allow to go un-backed at just below that triple-digit level.

The 40 year-old has been running a light schedule for some time now as he focuses on the bigger targets in world golf, however from just 9 starts in 2020 Adam still managed to secure victory at Riviera Country Club on the Poa Annua greens there, and although he’s yet to hit the same heights in 2021, a return to Torrey Pines where he recorded his seasons-best finish thus far offers some encouragement.

10^th at the Farmers Insurance Open here in January was disappointing in the end as the Australian sat in 2^nd place at halfway and 3^rd heading into Sunday, however it rubber-stamped his liking for this track having finished 2^nd here in 2019. 26^th here also back in 2008 at the US Open won by Tiger Woods completes his record at Torrey Pines and on each occasion he’s impressed with the putter, averaging exactly 1.69 putts per GIR each time, which for Scott is very strong.

Long enough off the tee (20^th for Driving Distance for the season at 308.1 yards) and with the right kind of tee-to-green game to excel around these parts when on song, Adam ranked 5^th for Total Driving at the Honda Classic, 14^th on the same count at Augusta and 9^th again on the same measure on his last start at the Memorial the week before last. A 16^th place finish overall at Muirfield Village was a handy warm-up ahead of this week and his 2^nd round 68 was amongst the very best efforts on the day.

Firm conditions should suit the 2013 Masters champion and if he’s going to add another contending performance at a Major to his tally – he has 18 top-10 Major finishes to his name in addition to that Green Jacket – then this week’s test would be one of the more logical places to expect it to happen given his recent efforts here. RESULT: T35

From 5 Major Championship starts, Robert MacIntyre is yet to miss a single cut and he’ll be looking to keep that trend going at the very least on his Torrey Pines debut here this week.

6^th at The Open on his Major debut in 2019 and 12^th at Augusta this year are the highlights thus far from the Scot’s efforts at golf’s biggest events, however after a relatively low-key effort at Kiawah Island he’ll be looking to secure another lofty finish as he seeks to earn the points that would put him inside the automatic qualifying positions for this year’s Ryder Cup.

At 48^th in the OWGR, the 24 year-old also knows that he needs to keep his foot to the floor over the next few weeks and after a week’s break after finishing 37^th at the Made In Himmerland, he should be ready and raring to go this week. In truth, I was surprised he even made the cut in Denmark the week before last, having expressed his desire to go home and recuperate after his US PGA excursion, however it’s to his credit that he didn’t completely down tools.

The left-hander is plenty long enough to compete at Torrey Pines and when he’s on his game he’s strong from a Total Driving perspective, which is one of the assets I like most at this venue. At the back end of last year Bob recorded Total Driving ranks of 10/21/1/9/7 in five consecutive tournaments, winning the Cyprus Showdown in that stretch and showing us that he’s quite comfortable performing by the coast. 8^th on the same count at The Belfry last month offers further encouragement and with his short game also looking on point on his last outing (7^th for Scrambling, 14^th for SG Around the Green), he could well take to this week’s task with aplomb. RESULT: T35

A couple of seriously speculative chances to complete this week’s team. Jimmy Walker’s 6^th place finish at The Memorial on his last start may ultimately prove to be a flash in the pan, however maybe, just maybe, it’s a hint that the 42 year-old is on the brink of some seriously good form once again.

The Texan’s first top-10 finish for 3 years had him talking about how the fruits of his labour were starting to show in his game, and that the result had stirred up old emotions and ambitions that he thought that he may never feel again. Inspiring stuff and what we do know is that when he previously found form back in 2018, he rattled off three top-6 finishes in consecutive events at the Texas Open, Players Championship and Byron Nelson, driven by a marked improvement in his SG Approach and SG Tee to Green metrics. Interesting then that 3^rd on both of those counts at Muirfield Village was far and away his most impressive statistics in those intervening 3 years, and perhaps we’ll see a continuation over the coming weeks and months.

The 2016 US PGA Champion has an excellent record in the Western side of the US and his 2014 AT&T Pebble Beach victory is useful coastal and Poa Annua form. Course form of 8/7/MC/7/4 from 2012-16 shows an aptitude around Torrey Pines and at the price on offer I’ll happily take a punt. RESULT: T70

Finally I’ll also take a chance on Chan Kim who took medallist honours in his Sectional Qualifying for the US Open last week and will be looking to record a Major personal best here this week.

The 31 year-old grew up in Hawaii having been born in South Korea and plies his trade primarily on the Japan Golf Tour, save for the odd trip to play Majors and WGCs. 11^th at the 2017 Open Championship still rates as his best career effort at the top level, however 23^rd at Kiawah Island on his last start also suggests that he’s not overawed when rubbing shoulders with the golfing elite.

5 Wins in his last 60 starts globally is an impressive strike rate, however it’s the nature of the most recent successes which interests me at the US Open. -6, +1 and -8 were his winning scores from his 3 most recent victories which suggests that he’s got the kind of game to tackle golf’s more stringent tests.

Kim is one of the longest hitters on the Japan Tour so the dimensions here at Torrey Pines won’t be an issue, and at 78^th in the OWGR he knows that he’s only a big result or two away from being able to spend more time State-side in the future. RESULT: MC