US Open Longshots 2022

For a player who resides well into the 3-figure range this week, Luke List ticks an awful lot of boxes.

We’ve talked about the Augusta resident a lot this year on the Golf Betting System Podcast, indeed I backed him as one of my longshots at the Masters when he was playing what was essentially a home tie, and although he let us down that week, I’m happy to give him another chance this week.

Let’s talk about those boxes that he ticks. Firstly, Steve Bamford’s research into US Open history picks out Driving Distance – All Drives as a key stat for recent US Open winners. As of the end of the RBC Canadian Open, List ranks 5^th for that measure for the season to date, rubbing shoulders with the likes of Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy who are available at less than a tenth of his odds this week.

41^st overall at the US PGA Championship last month is borderline for the ‘top-40 in his last Major’ criteria that we touched on in the US Open preview podcast, however let’s not split hairs and exclude him on the basis of a solitary place on the leaderboard. In fact, if you dig into his performance at Southern Hills we see noteworthy long-game stats including 4^th for Total Driving, 13^th for Driving Accuracy and 2^nd for SG Off the Tee – repeating those numbers with a slightly warmer putter won’t hurt his chances here at Brookline one iota.

A breakthrough victory at Torrey Pines in January shouldn’t be overlooked, given the challenging nature of the South Course and its Poa Annua greens, where the 37 year-old produced his best SG Putting numbers for nearly 3 years; his best putting effort prior to that was at Bethpage Black in 2019, which is also largely Poa Annua based (90% versus 75% this week), giving some hope that that ever-elusive part of his game might just fire this week. RESULT: MC

Another player who I’ve previously backed in my 2022 Longshots articles, this time at the US PGA Championship last month, is Gary Woodland and the same, tempting 3-figure price is available about him again this week.

The fundamentals for thinking that he’ll go well this week are similar to Southern Hills, and that’s not surprising given the challenging nature of both courses on strict Par-70 setups. 34^th overall last month wasn’t what we were looking for of course, however 10^th after both 36 and 54 holes had given us hope of an each-way return, and on another Sunday things could have been different.

Combined with that effort at the last Major, Woodland also sits just inside the top 50 for Driving Distance – All Drives which ticks the first two and most fundamental boxes for me, however there’s plenty more to like when you dig a little deeper. His 2019 US Open triumph came on the tiny Poa Annua greens of Pebble Beach and whilst I understand the West Coast vs East Coast Poa debate, the very fact that he’s both a Major champion and US Open champion shouldn’t be underplayed.

Comfortable on challenging, classical tracks, the 38 year-old’s record at another Major venue, Bethpage Black, may also be of relevance given he’s finished 4^th and 8^th there in 2016 and 2019 respectively, having sat in 12^th place at halfway at the US Open back in 2009, long before he established himself as a PGA Tour winner.

Of course, the reason we’re getting a 3-figure price on Gary this week is that he’s missed the cut on both of his starts since his US PGA effort. In truth, it’s been that kind of a year for the Kansas man: 7 missed cuts from 14 starts is disappointing, granted, yet 8^th at the Texas Open and a pair of 5^th place finishes at the Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational hint at something better bubbling just below the surface. RESULT: T10

Last year’s surprise package from across the Atlantic was Guido Migliozzi who hovered on the fringes of contention for the first 3 days at Torrey Pines before producing a final round 68 to catapult himself up to a tie for 4^th place. On Major debut it was a stretch to see the talented young Italian make the frame before the event, hence his 500/1 price, yet a pair of incoming runner-up finishes on the European Tour, as it was at the time, was a fairly strong hint that he was playing some really nice golf.

12 months on and the most likely DP World Tour regular to achieve something similar may well be Victor Perez. Like Migliozzi, the Frenchman has a couple of wins to his name on his home Tour and arrives in great form: a win at the Dutch Open to close out May was followed by another contending performance at the Porsche European Open the following week where he eventually finished 3^rd, and he could have quite feasibly won both events.

So with the current form box undoubtedly ticked, his game style also appeals too. Averaging over 308 yards from off the tee is a good starting point, as is 36^th for SG Off the Tee on the DP World Tour for the season so far. 2^nd & 6^th for Total Driving over those aforementioned 2 most recent starts is ideal for this, as is 2^nd & 9^th for SG Off the Tee and 1^st & 2^nd for SG Tee to Green.

The biggest challenge may well be the leap in standard this week versus the DP World Tour events he’s been playing of course, however even then we have evidence to suggest that he could sneak into the paying places here. 2^nd at the 2020 BMW PGA Championship saw him as Tyrrell Hatton’s closest challenger and ahead of Major winners Patrick Reed and Shane Lowry; prior to that, 4^th at the 2019 WGC HSBC Championship behind Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Louis Oosthuizen isn’t too shabby either. 9^th at TPC Sawgrass and 4^th at the WGC Dell Match Play last year are two more recent elite-level efforts that deserve respect and he could surprise a few here and make the each-way places. RESULT: MC