US Open Longshots 2023

Aside from the players who you’d expect to feature on any Major Championship discussion, one who did crop up in relation to performance in firm and fast conditions in recent times on our US Open preview podcast was Denny McCarthy and I’m happy to support him here this year.

Second in this field in this week’s Predictor Model when it comes to the ‘Firm’ variable in isolation – which is a measure of his performances in similar conditions over the past 5 years – isn’t a bad starting point when assessing the chances of a triple-digit chance, however there’s plenty more to like besides that.

Never one to churn out high numbers of Greens In Regulation compared to some of his more accurate iron-wielding peers, Denny more than makes up for it with a strong scrambling (9^th on Tour for Scrambling for the season to date) and putting (4^th for SG Putting) game which is often a powerful asset at tougher Major Championships.

7^th at the Brookline-hosted US Open last year rates as the 30 year-old’s best Major finish, on another Gil Hanse renovation to boot, and a similar finish this year would be an ideal outcome for this bet if we assume that actually winning the whole thing is a little fanciful given that he’s yet to break through on the PGA Tour.

4^th at Pebble Beach, 14^th at Riviera, 13^th at TPC Sawgrass and 8^th at Quail Hollow are all excellent results so far for the Florida native in 2023; even 29^th at Oak Hill was solid given that he opened with a round of 75 and could easily have been packing his bags on Friday evening.

A play-off defeat to Viktor Hovland at Muirfield Village on his last start is the closest he’s come to breaking his maiden at the top level, and despite that result ultimately being disappointing he can bank that experience and build on it moving forwards I’m sure, maybe as soon as this week. RESULT: T20

You don’t have to go too far back in the history books to find evidence of Harris English performing well at the very top level and proving more than competitive in strong fields, and there’s enough in his recent efforts to suggest that he can compete at the top end of the leaderboard here this week.

While many players struggled as golf emerged from the enforced Covid break, English positively thrived, finishing 2^nd to the runaway Dustin Johnson at the 2020 Northern Trust to earn himself a place at East Lake, where he subsequently finished 13^th. 4^th at the US Open at Winged Foot, 10^th at the CJ Cup, 6^th at the RSM Classic and 5^th at Mayakoba concluded an excellent year, before the 33 year-old went on to win the Sentry Tournament of Champions the following January to cap a fruitful spell of top quality golf.

3^rd at the 2021 US Open was followed by victory at TPC River Highlands to see the Georgia man sneak into the OWGR top 10 for the first and only time in his career to date. A niggling hip issue halted his progress though and eventually he succumbed to the injury, opting for surgery which saw him miss 5 months of the 2022 season.

Regaining top form after an extensive lay-off was never going to be easy, yet 2023 has shown significant promise and enough to suggest to me that he can compete at a US Open where he’s finished inside the top 4 on two of his last three attempts. 2^nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3^rd at the Wells Fargo Championship in March and May respectively have seen English climb back inside the OWGR top 50 and he threatened to contend again at Colonial just over a fortnight ago, sitting in 3^rd place heading into Sunday before dropping down the leaderboard after a closing round of 76.

A fast-running LA Country Club is ideal for Harris who’s adept on firm and challenging tracks as well as classical layouts, and seeing him on the first page of the leaderboard this week wouldn’t be a surprise despite his 3-figure price. RESULT: T8

Of the rest of the field, Gary Woodland was tempting as ever at his staple 3-figure price, however my patience has run a little too thin to back him this time. Sepp Straka might prefer Bermudagrass greens otherwise he’d have been a likely play, and Sam Bennett at up to 1,000/1 – or 16/1 for a top 20 – could outperform his odds given what we saw of the Texan at The Masters. For me though, Adam Schenk makes most appeal at a healthy price.

At 54^th in the OWGR, the American was the final player to qualify overnight on Sunday courtesy of the top 60 cut-off criteria which completed the field before any alternates were added, and his qualification is a testament to how well he’s played at times in 2023.

2^nd at the Valspar Championship in March, the 31 year-old will be remembered for his left-handed shot on the final hole having found himself up against the base of a tree when tied for the lead. Despite his attempted heroics, it wasn’t to be that week and Taylor Moore stepped up to the take the title.

Having become a father in late April, Schenk has refocused on his golf since, going closer still to winning his maiden PGA Tour title, this time losing out in a play-off to Emiliano Grillo at Colonial at the end of May, before following up with a 7^th place finish at Muirfield Village which ultimately guaranteed the Indiana man a place in this week’s field.

41^st on his Major debut last year at the US PGA Championship was followed up by 24^th in the Brookline-hosted US Open, however a year further on he’s ready to build on those efforts significantly in my view with the kind of strong all-round game that’s ideal for tougher Major Championship tests.

3^rd for Scrambling at both of those aforementioned runner-up finishes is an attribute that won’t hurt whatsoever this week, and 11^th & 6^th for SG Approach plus 9^th & 11^th for SG Putting over his past two outings suggests to me that he’s in the right shape to threaten an each-way place here in LA. RESULT: MC