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Welcome to our 2018 US Open coverage. Firstly congratulations to our European Tour pundit Paul Williams who last week landed Shot Clock Masters winner Mikko Korhonen at 28/1 and a rather juicy full each-way payout on Steve Webster at 150/1. That’s 3 wins from 4 weeks here at Golf Betting System, so we’re looking forward to this week’s Shinnecock Hills hosted US Open where hopefully we can snare another winner.

A much-loved course on Long Island close to New York, Shinnecock Hills should be a magnificent host course for the 118th United States Open Championship. Naturally after his win in Memphis last week, World Number 1 Dustin Johnson heads the betting at 8/1. But as is the norm these days at the highest level of golf, the likes of Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler and Tiger Woods are all 20/1 or shorter in what looks to be a very open affair.

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It has to be said that for golf punter value, when it comes to each-way betting we’ve never seen such excellent terms. The US Open has always been traditionally the worst of the 4 Major Championships for the number of each-way places offered. But the bookmaker industry is so competitive these days that bookmakers are offering record amount of places to try and win new customers and to retain those they already have.

So the 2018 US Open sees a massive opportunity for you to extend the amount of each-way places available. Golf industry standard is set at 5 places each-way with the places paid at 1/4 odds for full field events. However for the first time in US Open history we see 10 places each-way at 1/5 odds openly available this week. Those looking for bigger odds should also check out a number of bookmakers who have gone 7 or 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds.

Course Guide: Where Erin Hills 12 months ago was a new course for virtually all in the 2017 US Open field, Shinnecock Hills is one of the most traditional golf courses in North America. Built in 1892, the golf club, located close to Southampton on Long Island, New York State, is one of the oldest in the United States. An inland links-style golf course, it’s famous for being the first links golf course in the United States. Whether it is a genuine links is up for debate, but assume that those with a liking for coastal golf will feel right at home here.

The course has been significantly changed since the last US Open held here in 2004 which was won by Retief Goosen. A Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore (think Pinehurst Number 2 when it comes to recent US Open venues) inspired renovation in 2012 saw hundreds of trees removed, green sizes increased and over 400 yards added in length. With ever changing routing, the real challenge of Shinnecock for the players is thinking about the wind and understanding how to hit relatively small and well-defended green complexes. A commonly held view is that Shinnecock Hills feels more like Scotland than almost any other golf course in the United States. At 7,440 yards playing as a Par 70, this will be one of the longest ever Major set-ups featuring only a pair of par-5s. Typically USGA though, the yardage for each round of the championship will vary due to course setup and conditions.

Shinnecock Hills Golf Course, Southampton, New York: Designer: William S Flynn, 1937, with Crenshaw & Coore renovation, 2012; Course Type: Technical, Inland Links; Par: 70; Length: 7,440 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Fairways: Bentgrass and Poa Annua; Rough: Bluegrass, Rye and Fescue; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average Poa Annua.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Shinnecock Hills and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Shinnecock Hills: Average 42 yards with 8th hole widest at 64 yards wide.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 36 yards wide; 275:35; 300:31; 325:26; 350:30.
• Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
• Trinity Forest: 250 yards from the tee: 58 yards wide; 275:54; 300:56; 325:60; 350:57.
• TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:32; 325:29; 350:20.
• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:30; 325:29; 350:28.
• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:28; 325:27; 350:25.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 30 yards wide; 275:24; 300:21; 325:26; 350:23.
• Golf Club of Houston: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:31; 325:25; 350:28.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:34; 325:39; 350:30.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from tee: 26 yards wide; 275:21; 300:22; 325:24; 350:20.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw designs /re-designs include:

• Plantation Course, Kapalua – Sentry Tournament of Champions.
• Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 US Open.
• Trinity Forest Golf Club – 2018 AT&T Byron Nelson.

Course Overview: Shinnecock Hills is undoubtedly a United States classic. The club has hosted US Opens across the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries and golf history is absolutely everywhere in the clubhouse. A links-style golf course, the set-up has a Scottish feel to it and across the 1995 US Open won by Corey Pavin and the 2004 renewal won by Retief Goosen it yielded winning scores of Even/280 and -4/276. Going back to 2004, the tournament highlights the well-known fact that links golf is inextricably linked to weather conditions. With a softer than desired golf course and light winds on the opening day, Angel Cabrera, Jay Haas and Shigeki Maruyama shot -4/66s to lead. Jeff Maggert on Friday led at one point at -7, with Maruyama and Mickelson eventually leaving the course with the joint lead at -6/134. But with the course becoming increasingly firm and fast, allied to stronger, gusting winds, scoring stalled. At tournament’s close, Goosen and Mickelson were the only players under par.

Things move on though and there are a couple of interesting points which we need to bear in mind with the revised Shinnecock track. The Coore and Crenshaw restoration in 2012 now plays some 450 yards longer after championship tees were added on 10 holes. 7,440 yards for a Par 70 is stretching. With extra length also comes extra width off the tee. Whereas the sub-7,000 yard layout featured fairways which ranged in width from 26 to 28 yards, the Coore and Crenshaw renovation, in their quest to take the course back to its 1930’s William Flynn roots, widened the fairways to over 40 yards in lots of circumstances. Now the USGA with their desire to make the course more of a challenge, in the autumn last year replaced some significant chunks of fairway with rough. But they readily admit that Shinnecock’s fairways will be the widest that we’ve seen in Championship play at 28-34 yards in the typical landing areas. That’s very generous in modern day golf terms when compared to the likes of very long Torrey Pines South where fairway widths are 26 yards at 300 yards from the tee. To add a little detail, the 13th hole features the thinnest fairway at 19 yards at 275 yards from the tee. But apart from that, all holes feature fairways that are a minimum of 30 yards wide, whilst the 8th is gigantic at 64 yards wide. No matter how you look at this set-up, power is sure to be a huge advantage and even inaccurate drivers will find plenty of short grass.

The renovation also saw green sizes grow a little, so green complexes at 6,000 sq.ft average are more generous than those we saw in 2004. Putting surfaces are Poa Annua, which we know aren’t to every player’s taste. So undoubtedly Shinnecock Hills, as per all links venues, will play as hard as the conditions allow. A firm course, with target 12.5ft stimp greens and plenty of wind, would be an absolute beast.

Winners: 2017: Brooks Koepka (-16); 2016: Dustin Johnson (-4); 2015: Jordan Spieth (-5); 2014: Martin Kaymer (-9); 2013: Justin Rose (+1); 2012: Webb Simpson (+1); 2011: Rory McIlroy (-16); 2010: Graeme McDowell (E); 2009: Lucas Glover (-4).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Jimmy Walker, Phil Mickelson, Hideki Matsuyama and Branden Grace.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to The Masters and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Henrik Stenson; 2) Chez Reavie; 3) Jim Furyk / Justin Rose; 5) Brian Gay; 6) Matthew Fitzpatrick / Emiliano Grillo / Ted Potter Jnr / Kyle Stanley; 10) Tommy Fleetwood / Adam Hadwin / Russell Henley; 13) Brian Stuard; 14) Shubhankar Sharma; 15) Lucas Glover; 16) Keegan Bradley; 17) Daniel Berger; 18) Matt Kuchar / Webb Simpson; 20) Rafa Cabrera-Bello.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Henrik Stenson; 2) Jon Rahm; 3) Adam Scott; 4) Dustin Johnson; 5) Bryson DeChambeau / Tiger Woods; 7) Branden Grace / Kyle Stanley; 9) Dylan Frittelli; 10) Tommy Fleetwood / Matt Jones / Shane Lowry / Jordan Spieth; 14) Justin Rose; 15) Brooks Koepka; 16) Steve Stricker / Peter Uihlein / Jimmy Walker; 19) Emiliano Grillo / Russell Knox / Bubba Watson.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Phil Mickelson; 2) Eric Axley / Justin Rose; 4) Jimmy Walker; 5) Paul Casey / Ian Poulter / Brandt Snedeker; 8) Si Woo Lim; 9) Rafa Cabrera-Bello; 10) Jason Day; 11) Chesson Hadley / Rory McIlroy; 13) Marc Leishman; 14) Rickie Fowler / Dustin Johnson; 16) Matthew Fitzpatrick / Alexander Levy / Aaron Wise; 19) Jordan Spieth / Justin Thomas.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Koepka 45/1; : 2016: Dustin Johnson 16/1; 2015: Spieth 9/1; 2014: Kaymer 40/1; 2013: Rose 28/1; 2012: Simpson 80/1; 2011: McIlroy 22/1; 2010: McDowell 80/1. Average: 40/1.

Weather Forecast: Latest PGA Tour weather forecast for Southampton, New York is here. In terms of a weather forecast, I don’t think the USGA can have asked for a better one than what we see this week on Long Island. The immediate build-up to the tournament has been dry, but there’s a 50% chance of showers / thunderstorms on Wednesday. From Thursday onwards there will be no precipitation, so effectively Mike Davis can have nice fast conditions if he chooses to do. As we know, wind is Shinnecock’s friend when it comes to defending scores and the amount of it on offer across the tournament is sure to keep the players honest. A 15-20 mph westerly on Thursday looks consistent throughout. Early starters may well get some benefit on Friday with the wind freshening in the afternoon. From there the leaders will see gusting 15-20 mph winds on Saturday before the situation calms on Sunday.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the last 8 winners of the US Open since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Brooks Koepka (-16). 322 yards (7th), 87.5% fairways (4th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 60.0 % scrambling (26th), 1.76 putts per GIR (20th).
• 2016, Dustin Johnson (-4). 317 yards (1st), 64.3% fairways (18th), 76.4% greens in regulation (1st), 76.5 % scrambling (1st), 1.87 putts per GIR (43rd).
• 2015, Jordan Spieth (-5). 296 yards (59th), 62.5% fairways (68th), 76.4% greens in regulation (6th), 64.7 % scrambling (2nd), 1.85 putts per GIR (23rd).
• 2014, Martin Kaymer (-9). 306 yards (7th), 76.8% fairways (9th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), 70.% scrambling (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2013, Justin Rose (+1). 300 yards (15th), 75.0% fairways (2nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (8th), 45.5% scrambling (25th), 1.82 putts per GIR (15th).
• 2012, Webb Simpson (+1). 279 yards (53rd), 55.4% fairways (14th), 58.3% greens in regulation (16th), 60.0% scrambling (9th), 1.74 putts per GIR (9th).
• 2011, Rory McIlroy (-16). 311 yards (7th), 64.3% fairways (26th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 70.0% scrambling (3rd), 1.71 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2010, Graeme McDowell (E). 303 yards (7th), 64.3% fairways (43rd), 58.3% greens in regulation (13th), 62.5% scrambling (1st), 1.64 putts per GIR (9th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 19th, Driving Accuracy: 23rd, Greens in Regulation: 8th, Scrambling: 9th, Putting Average 16th.

Here’s some recent comments on the Shinnecock Hills course and how it sets up:

Rory McIlroy: “Yeah, I think they would love to get it fast and firm and that would play more like an Open Championship than it does a US Open, but Shinnecock doesn’t give you the opportunity too much to run balls into greens. You still have to fly it on to the greens. Where an Open Championship on a links course over there you can run it in. So you still have flight your irons, you still have to be able to stop it pretty quickly, especially if they do get the greens as firm as they want them.“

Rickie Fowler: “I think we’ve done a great job this year of showing that I’m ready to go win a major. The week we had at Augusta, obviously Patrick played well, but to be there to push him to 72 holes, it was a lot of fun. I’m ready to go out there and be the last man standing. I think this is a year we have some great chances. I haven’t played Carnoustie or Bellerive, but Shinnecock being one of my favourite courses, I’m looking forward to it.

JT and I had a good time playing Shinnecock. We had a little fun match together just playing head-to-head. I had him 2-down and then he made a couple birdies coming in. We had a good time. It’s probably the easiest we’re going to see the golf course ever play just because it was in perfect condition. The greens were soft, and you could throw darts with 5-irons, which won’t be the case next year at the US Open. It’s one of my favourite places to play. It’s the best out here on the island and like I said, one of my favourites in the U.S. by far.“

Phil Mickelson: “I think that to make a golf course where even par is a great score with the players today and the talent level, the skill level, the equipment, and so forth, you would have to cross over that line of fair, 5- or 6-under is kind of like that line of where a very fair and hard golf course is. I think we’re going to see that at Shinnecock.

Shinnecock, when I was there last week, I think it’s the greatest setup I’ve seen in a US Open. I think that the fairways are a very fair width, the rough is brutal, it will be as penalizing as a hazard, trying to just get it back to the fairway. But the fairways are so wide that a well-struck shot ends up in the fairway. I think that this year’s US Open is the greatest setup going in that I have seen in my 25-whatever years of playing the US Open. I think that it will reward the best player as opposed to having luck be a big element on some of the bounces in the fairway, bounces around the green, how it comes out of the rough, so forth. Skill is going to be the primary factor this week. It’s just a, it’s a tremendous setup that I’ve seen.“

Tiger Woods: “Do I think it will be a traditional US Open? Depends if it’s dry. If it’s wet, then not really, no. It will be long, yeah, it will be very long. But around the greens are very, it’s very different. They have taken out that over 500 trees since last time I played it and added about 500 yards to it, so it’s a very different golf course. It’s very open, wind blows a little bit more. I understand they’re trying to give us an opportunity to run the ball up, have a lot of fall-offs, a lot of pitch and runs and 4-irons and spinners and all different shots around the greens. But if it’s soft, it’s a moot point. But if it’s hard, then it becomes quite a test.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 US Open winners:

• 2017 – Brooks Koepka: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2016 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Martin Kaymer: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Justin Rose: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 5th.
• 2012 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 23rd, Round 2: 29th, Round 3: 8th.
• 2011 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Graeme McDowell: Round 1: 10th, Round 2 1st, Round 3: 2nd.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Brooks Koepka: 37th TPC Southwind/31st Memorial/50th TPC4S/16th TPC Sawgrass.
• Dustin Johnson: 5th TPC Southwind/3rd Memorial/12th TPC4S/28th TPC Sawgrass.
• Jordan Spieth: 3rd Memorial/30th TPC4S/2nd Colonial/MC TPC Sawgrass.
• Martin Kaymer: 12th Wentworth/29th TPC4S/1st TPC Sawgrass/18th Quail.
• Justin Rose: 8th Memorial/50th Wentworth/MC TPC Sawgrass/15th TPC Louisiana.
• Webb Simpson: MC Memorial/MC TPC Sawgrass/ 4th Quail/13th New Orleans.
• Rory McIlroy: 5th Memorial/24th Wentworth/MC Quail/3rd Kuala Lumpur.
• Graeme McDowell: 1st Celtic Manor/4th Madrid/28th Wentworth/26th TPC Sawgrass.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Fowler – AM -7/65 – 40/1.
• 2016 – Landry – AM -4/66.
• 2015 – D Johnson/Stenson – Both AM -5/65.
• 2014 – Kaymer – PM -5/65.
• 2013 – Mickelson – AM -3/67.
• 2012 – M Thompson – AM -4/66.
• 2011 – McIlroy – PM -6/65.
• 2010 – Casey/de Jonge/Micheel – All PM -2/69.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 8 – Dustin Johnson.
• 4 – Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Brandt, Snedeker, Bubba Watson, Tiger Woods.
• 3 – Rory McIlroy, Jimmy Walker.
• 2 – Jason Day, Scott Piercy, Jordan Spieth, Brendan Steele.
• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Keegan Bradley, Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Dufner, Emiliano Grillo, Bill Haas, Billy Horschel, Russell Knox, Matt Kuchar, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Graeme McDowell, Ted Potter Jnr, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Scott Stallings, Henrik Stenson, Steve Stricker, Gary Woodland.

Let’s start with a list of players in the field this week who have experience of Shinnecock Hills from the 2004 US Open. Phil Mickelson (2nd), Ernie Els (9th), Tiger Woods (17th), Sergio Garcia (20th), Charles Howell III (36th), Bill Haas (40th), Pat Perez (40th), Jim Furyk (48th), Zach Johnson (48th) and Chez Reavie (62nd) all played the weekend. Eric Axley, Aaron Baddeley, Paul Casey, Brian Gay, Ian Poulter, Justin Rose, Steve Stricker and Bubba Watson all missed the cut.

With Patrick Reed in mind, 5 players have done the Masters/US Open same season double since the 2nd World War. Ben Hogan in 1953 (they were his 7th and 8th Major wins); Arnold Palmer 1960 (2nd and 3rd Majors); Jack Nicklaus 1972 (10th and 11th Majors); Tiger Woods 2002 (7th and 8th Majors); Jordan Spieth 2015 (1st and 2nd Majors). Quite an illustrious club I think you’ll agree.

It also looks like we can take on the favourite this week. World Number 1 Dustin Johnson stands alone as favourite for the US Open at a best price of 8/1. The huge trend going against Dustin this week is that only a single World Number 1 ranked player has won the title in the last 14 attempts. Yes of course it was Tiger Woods who’d won at Torrey Pines 6 times prior to his 2008 US Open victory there. He had previous it’s safe to say.

From a Brooks Koepka perspective it’s well worth noting that only 2 players, namely Ben Hogan in 1950/51 and Curtis Strange in 1988/89, have defended the US Open title. Since 1991, five champions have finished better than 15th in trying to defend their US Open crowns. Tiger Woods was 12th in 2001 and 6th in 2009. Retief Goosen was 11th in 2005 following his second US Open championship victory here at Shinnecock Hills. Graeme McDowell was 14th in 2011. Justin Rose was 12th in 2014. As you can see only Tiger Woods troubled the each-way places, so Koepka faces an almighty challenge this week at a rightfully short price.

A fascinating tournament awaits this week on Long Island. Shinnecock Hills should provide a sterner test than Erin Hills, where the bombers had their way. Yes I think length will be a significant advantage this week on a course which features wide-fairways, plenty of elevation changes and 7 par-4s of over 450 yards, but Shinnecock appears to be the kind of course where strategy and patience will be key. This is undoubtedly a links-like test, despite the course being 2 miles from the coast. And in all likelihood coastal positive players will be very much at the fore, with long driving and Greens in Regulation likely to be the key constituents. Naturally scrambling will also be at a premium with the course featuring Augusta-like closely mown collection areas around green complexes, many of which are elevated.

As standard, the winner of this will need to be an all-round sort, so let’s keep it simple. I’ve gone with players who can play well on tough Poa Annua set-ups and those who tend to come alive on links tests. The fact that 8 of the last 11 winners of the US Open ranked in the top 10 for All-Round in their last appearance has also influenced my team to a degree. Another trend I like this week is that in recent winners Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer and Justin Rose, they all arrived at the top of their considerable ball-striking powers. This +7,400 yard Par 70 is unlikely to change that trend in my opinion.

My final US Open tips for 2018 are as follows: