US Open Tips 2024

The 2024 U.S. Open returns to Pinehurst Number 2, Pinehurst Village, North Carolina. We last saw this Donald Ross classic in 2014 when Martin Kaymer destroyed the field, winning by a clear 8 strokes. This Par 70 course is unique in golf Majors as it features no rough whatsoever. Instead those that stray from the fairways find their ball in natural areas, encompassing sand, wire grass, pine straw and a variety of native grasses.

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2023 saw relative unknown Wyndham Clark hit the big time. Winning his first PGA Tour title in early May at the Wells Fargo Championship, he then took out the U.S. Open 6 weeks later at 66/1. Prior to winning his best Major Championship finish had been T75.

In 2022 saw Matt Fitzpatrick win at 25/1 at the same Brookline course where he’d won the US Amateur 9 years earlier.  2021 saw Jon Rahm win his maiden Major title as the 9/1 favourite on the course where he won his first PGA Tour title back in 2017. In 2020, Bryson DeChambeau bludgeoned his way around Winged Foot to capture his first Major title – in doing so becoming only the second ever winner to average over 320 yards off the tee when winning a Major. 2019 saw Gary Woodland capture his first Major victory at the iconic Pebble Beach. Off the back of consecutive PGA Championship top-8 finishes, Woodland delivered a masterclass of long, straight driving and elite-level ball-striking at Pebble, holding off modern-day US Open king Brooks Koepka.

Brooks triumphed at both the 2017 and 2018 renewals held at the contrived Erin Hills and the classical faux-links at Shinnecock Hills. He hits the ball a mile, but undoubtedly has the patience, approach play and short game to tame tough golf courses. Before Brooks, 2016 saw the buccaneering Dustin Johnson show huge mental resolve to capture his first Major, despite being told on the 12th tee of the final round that he was being assessed for a one-shot penalty, sustained for his ball moving on the 5th green as he was addressing his putt.

2015 saw 21 year-old Jordan Spieth win back-to-back Majors at a versatile Chambers Bay course which split the opinions of both players and the wider golfing public. 2014 saw Martin Kaymer in a class of his own as he made playing Pinehurst Number 2 look unnaturally easy on his way to winning his 2nd Major title. 2013 saw Justin Rose capture his first Major Championship with an emotional victory at Merion Golf Club. These victories followed on from first Major wins for Webb Simpson (Olympic Club 2012), Rory McIlroy (Congressional 2011), Graeme McDowell (Pebble Beach 2010) and Lucas Glover (Bethpage Black 2009).

So just who will be the 2024 U.S. Open champion at the ultimate Carolina-type golf course that is Pinehurst Number 2?

Golf betting at the Major Championships is a complex subject. Mistakes can be costly, however select the right player or player portfolio and the rewards can be excellent. Golf Betting System’s goal is to provide you with informed US Open tips, free tournament research guides, plus insight and information that will help you make educated decisions about what players to back at the 2024 US Open Championship.

Course Information:

Pinehurst Number 2, Pinehurst Resort, North Carolina: Designer: Designer: Donald Ross 1907 with Coore and Crenshaw renovation 2011; Course Type: Classical, Carolina, Technical, Long; Par: 70; Length: 7,548 yards as per the scorecard; Number of Holes with Water In-Play: 1; Number of Sand Bunkers: 117; Acres of Fairway: 50; Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: Natural Native Sand Areas with Wiregrass; Greens: 6,800 sq.ft average featuring Champion UltraDwarf Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 12.5ft-13.5ft.

Pinehurst in North Carolina is the golfing Mecca of the United States. Our St Andrews if you like. The Resort offers 8 courses in all, but the Donald Ross-designed Pinehurst Number 2 is revered across the globe. Previously swathed in typical thick Bermudagrass rough across both 1999 and 2005 U.S. Opens, Coore and Crenshaw were given the remit to renovate the course for the 2014 U.S. Open, which they performed by taking the Ross original very much back to its Carolina typography roots. Sandy native areas now surround every hole, with every player admitting that the chances of recovering from these rank as a flip of a coin. In reality though, Pinehurst still plays as the ultimate total driving and approach shot course where long, straight length of the tee allied to strategic positioning and patience is rewarded.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald Ross designs include:

• Aronimink – 2010/11 AT&T National & 2018 BMW Championship
• Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic
• East Lake Country Club – Tour Championship
• East Course, Oak Hill Country Club – 2013 and 2023 PGA Championships
• Plainfield – 2011 & 2015 Barclays
• Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship

Pinehurst Number 2 in its Coore and Crenshaw guise is a strict Par 70 that features only 2 Par 5s – both are above 580 yards long. Pinehurst is a very stiff test which rewards consistent approach play from beyond 175 yards and out. The Champion Bermudagrass green complexes haven’t changed from 2005 and it’s fascinating to note that the Ross designed Number 2 course is renowned in professional golf for having raised greens that have dome-like putting surfaces that repel approach shots. This is best articulated by the fact that previous U.S. Open winners here Payne Stewart (ranked 9th) and Michael Campbell (ranked 16th) won here with an amazingly low 56.9% Greens in Regulation split, which is unheard of in standard tournament golf.

The 2014 renovation, which we play this year, included significant green complex run-off areas, so the greens play far smaller than their 6,800 sq.ft. average size. With no collar rough around the greens, stray balls fed into collection areas around putting complexes.

Martin Kaymer ranked 16th for Greens in Regulation hitting just 62.5%, with a huge part of his victory coming from creativity around the putting surfaces, where he used the putter for scrambling in true Texas wedge style – indeed he topped Scrambling for the week at 70.4%. Whether any of this is truly relevant in 2024 though remains to be seen with the USGA in-recent years, happy to keep players on-side and not make their U.S. Open set-up “too stern.”

As I highlight below, controlled length off the tee was a huge advantage in 2014 and that makes sense as virtually all holes feature pinch points where risk and reward will be a key dynamic. Pinching an additional 30 yards off the tee might be the game plan of the longer hitters, but venture into the native areas, where additional wiregrass has been planted specifically for this U.S. Open, and it’s pure luck if you have a recovery option. Playing from the fairway was key for Martin Kaymer, who then played tremendous approach golf across Thursday and Friday to build a lead. He played strategic golf of the highest order which undoubtedly takes a very strong self-belief to play for 72 holes, especially when birdies are scarce.

Green Complexes:

The unique Donald Ross type 6,800 sq.ft on average greens are incredibly complex. The best way to describe these greens are as upturned saucers with the pin usually located on an area at the highest part of the green. Despite being quite large, only 2,000 – 3,000 sq.ft of each green can received pin placements, highlighting just how small approach target areas are going to be, especially with quoted Stimpmeter targets of 12.5, approaching 14 on Sunday.

The greens themselves feature Champion Bermudagrass. On the current PGA schedule the courses where Champion Bermudagrass greens feature are:

• Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship
• Country Club of Jackson – Sanderson Farms Championship
• Quail Hollow Club (since the 2017 PGA Championship) – Wells Fargo Championship. It’s worthy of note that the greens at Quail Hollow are overseeded so not exactly the same
• The Dunes Golf and Beach Club – 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic
• TPC Southwind – FedEx St Jude Championship, 2019-2021 WGC St  Jude Invitational & FedEx St Jude Classic

Previous Major/PGA Tour courses with Champion Bermudagrass greens include:

• Atlanta Athletic Club – 2011 PGA Championship
• Congaree – 2021 Palmetto Championship + 2022 CJ Cup
• Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail – 2015-2017 Barbasol Championship
• Trinity Forest – 2018 + 2019 Byron Nelson Championship

Below are some revealing player comments about Pinehurst Number 2 from the 2014 U.S. Open:

Justin Rose: “Pinehurst is about learning how to control the ball on the ground, whereas Merion was all about controlling the ball through the air. The ball was sticking where it was landing for the most part at Merion. So accuracy was important at both venues but the key to Pinehurst is about learning to control your accuracy on the ground, for chip shots and approach shot trajectory so the ball isn’t out of control when it lands. Two totally different tests, but patience and grinding it out will still be key to this U.S. Open.”

Martin Kaymer: Thursday: “They must have put a little more water on the greens last night. I thought it was very playable. And even the afternoon, we could stop the ball fairly well on the greens. So I just didn’t make many mistakes. I hit a lot of good golf shots. Finally I could make some putts on 15, 16 and 17. And on 18. So it was a really nice way to finish. Even though I shot 5-under par now, which is obviously an exceptional score, it’s very nice to lead the tournament right now. But I was very surprised that the golf course played fairly soft, because it was very firm the first like Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. So they must have changed something.”

Friday: “I played very well, I had some good rounds in the past as well. But yesterday and today, especially today, the way I worked my way around the course, it was quite — I hit some smart shots, I didn’t play too aggressive and when I had a good number, I went for the flag and I didn’t make many mistakes on the greens. I didn’t three putt, I made a lot of good putts today and yesterday.”

Brooks Koepka: “I actually thought today’s setup was a lot harder. I know we got some rain, but the pin locations were in some spots, just over knobs on the greens. You know, if you just got it on the wrong side of the hole, you were gone. I think what’s the par-3? 15? That pin, we were aiming left of the pin, but I actually pushed it and it ended up right of the pin and I think John Senden had a putt from just left of the hole and above it and it was lightning. He barely tapped it and it went so far bay. So I kind of lucked out on some bad shots. But the golf course is in unbelievable shape. It’s really good. I’ve gotten lucky in the native grass too, so I can’t really complain. I haven’t had a bad lie yet.

I was with, started working with Pete Cowen with the short game for the past maybe month or so. And so, I mean, we’ve spent hours and hours on these chipping greens. But I’ve been striking the ball really well, so I haven’t had to chip too much and the spots I’m leaving myself I can actually putt, which I think is a big difference, because if you get into the grain, you’re going to struggle chipping the ball.”

Keegan Bradley: “Yeah, I played with Martin these first two days, he’s playing so good. It’s fun to watch. I played well as well, but it was fun watching him hit every fairway, every green and make every putt, it was pretty awesome.

“If you hit the ball in the fairway, you can score out here. It’s tough greens, but they’re a little receptive. He’s just hitting the ball in the fairway on every hole and that’s how you score. If you hit the ball in the fairway, you can attack a lot of these pins and these greens. When you get off the fairway into the waste area, that’s when it can get dicey.”

Pinehurst Number 2: A unique course for a unique Major Championship.

Here’s how both Michael Campbell (2005) and Martin Kaymer (2014) won their U.S. Open Championships at Pinehurst Number 2. Kaymer’s win was on this Coore and Crenshaw renovated course. Unfortunately Strokes Gained data is not available.

Traditional Metrics:

• 2014, Martin Kaymer (-9). 306 yards (7th), 76.8% fairways (9th), 62.5% greens in regulation (18th), Total Driving Rank 2nd, Ball Striking Rank 4th, 70.4% scrambling (1st), 1.71 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2005, Michael Campbell (E). 294 yards (36th), 64.3% fairways (8th), 56.9% greens in regulation (16th), Total Driving Rank 8th, Ball Striking Rank 6th, 48.4% scrambling (23rd), 1.61 putts per GIR (3rd).

Using the traditional metrics only tells a very basic story across 2005 and 2014 U.S. Open wins, but a couple tidbits are available. Michael Campbell won by driving the ball moderately long and straight off the tee. He defeated Tiger Woods by 2 shots, losing just under 30 yards on average off the tee to the World Number 1, who had already won The Masters in 2005. Campbell’s advantage though was finding many more fairways, scrambling adequately and putting lights out, whereas Woods topped Greens in Regulation, but fell short due to a lack of birdies.

Martin Kaymer in 2014, dominated Pinehurst Number 2 off the tee, ranking 7th for Driving Distance, and like Campbell in 2004 within the top 10 (9th) for Driving Accuracy. Only Rory McIlroy drove the ball better than Kaymer. So Total Driving appears a real positive at Pinehurst Number 2.

Razor-sharp approaches plus tactical misses on the right-side of greens – Major Championship golf course navigation – then allowed Martin to use his putter (as many did) to get up and down for par. The German led the week for both birdies made and bogey avoidance to win by 8 strokes, leading the field for Scrambling and Putts per GIR.

Fancy a list of Donald Ross golf course winners on the PGA Tour, who are in the U.S. Open field, going back 7 years?  Thought you might!

For the purposes of the Tour Championship at East Lake, which utilises a FedEx Cup Starting Strokes Index, I have taken best 72-hole scores as the winner since 2019.

Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele lead the way with 2 victories, all at East Lake:

• 2 Wins – Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele
• 1 Win – Keegan Bradley, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Viktor Hovland, Tom Kim, Brooks Koepka, Tom Kim, J.T. Poston, Jon Rahm, Tiger Woods

Individual Donald Ross course winners as below –

• 2018 BMW Championship – Aronimink – Keegan Bradley
• 2018 Tour Championship – East Lake – Tiger Woods
• 2019 Wyndham Championship – Sedgefield Country Club – J.T. Poston
• 2019 Tour Championship – East Lake – Rory McIlroy
• 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic – Detroit Golf Club – Bryson DeChambeau
• 2020 Tour Championship – East Lake – Xander Schauffele
• 2021 Tour Championship – East Lake – Jon Rahm
• 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic – Detroit Golf Club – Tony Finau
• 2022 Wyndham Championship – Sedgefield Country Club – Tom Kim
• 2022 Tour Championship – East Lake – Rory McIlroy
• 2023 PGA Championship – Oak Hill Country Club – Brooks Koepka
• 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic – Detroit Golf Club – Rickie Fowler
• 2023 Wyndham Championship – Sedgefield Country Club – Lucas Glover
• 2023 Tour Championship – East Lake – Viktor Hovland / Xander Schauffele

The South Eastern United States has the most Major Championship golf action of anywhere on the planet, thanks naturally to The Masters Tournament being played annually in Augusta, Georgia. Add the 2017 and 2021 PGA Championships, played at Quail Hollow and Kiawah Island respectively, and that’s 10 Majors played across the past 8 years.

Below you will find the top 10 finishers across those 10 Majors held in the South-East United States since 2017.

2017 Masters Tournament – Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia

• 1st: Sergio Garcia; 2nd: Justin Rose; 3rd: Charl Schwartzel; T4: Matt Kuchar, Thomas Pieters; 6th: Paul Casey; T7: Kevin Chappell, Rory McIlroy; T9: Ryan Moore, Adam Scott.

2017 PGA Championship – Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina

• 1st: Justin Thomas; T2: Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed; T5: Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama; T7 Graham DeLaet, Kevin Kisner; T9: Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, Jordan Smith, Chris Stroud.

2018 Masters Tournament – Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia

• 1st: Patrick Reed; 2nd: Rickie Fowler; 3rd: Jordan Spieth; 4th: Jon Rahm; T5: Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Henrik Stenson, Bubba Watson; 9th: Marc Leishman; T10: Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson.

2019 Masters Tournament – Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia

• 1st: Tiger Woods; T2: Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele; T5: Jason Day, Tony Finau, Francesco Molinari, Webb Simpson; T9: Patrick Cantlay, Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm.

2020 Masters Tournament – Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia

• 1st: Dustin Johnson; T2: Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith; 4th: Justin Thomas; T5: Dylan Frittelli, Rory McIlroy; T7: Brooks Koepka, C.T. Pan, Jon Rahm; T10: Corey Conners, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson.

2021 Masters Tournament – Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia

• 1st: Hideki Matsuyama; 2nd: Will Zalatoris; T3: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth; T5: Marc Leishman, Jon Rahm; 7th: Justin Rose; T8: Corey Conners, Patrick Reed; T10: Tony Finau, Cameron Smith.

2021 PGA Championship – Ocean Course, Kiawah Island, South Carolina

• 1st: Phil Mickelson; T2: Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen; T4: Paul Casey, Padraig Harington, Harry Higgs, Shane Lowry; T8: Abraham Ancer, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Streelman, Will Zalatoris.

2022 Masters Tournament – Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia

• 1st: Scottie Scheffler; 2nd: Cameron Smith; 3rd: Sungjae Im; T4: Shane Lowry, Charl Schwartzel; T6: Corey Conners, Justin Thomas; 8th: Danny Willett; T9: Tommy Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson, Jason Kokrak, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa.

2023 Masters Tournament – Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia

• 1st: Jon Rahm; T2: Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson; T4: Russell Henley, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth; T7: Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young; 9th: Sahith Theegala; T10: Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler.

2024 Masters Tournament – Augusta National, Augusta, Georgia

• 1st: Scottie Scheffler; 2nd: Ludvig Aberg; T3: Tommy Fleetwood, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa; T6: Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Smith; 8th: Xander Schauffele; T9: Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris.

In this day and age of statistics it’s interesting to look at what inbound player skill strengths, if any, are particularly shared by U.S. Open winners. Naturally this cannot be an exact science as the U.S. Open moves from course-to-course, with venues changing in terms of key requirements required by the eventual winner. Nothing highlights that more than a striking difference between Shinnecock Hills, Pebble Beach, Winged Foot, Torrey Pines, Brookline and Los Angeles Country Club over the past 6 U.S. Open renewals. However there are definite patterns which are not exact, but definitely highlight trends.

For instance 13 of the last 17 winners of the U.S. Open ranked in the top 13 in the All-Round skill category in their last appearance. It’s also fact that no U.S. Open winner over the same timescale has been outside the top 18 for Greens in Regulation in the week they won. Naturally hitting your irons and approaches well is a huge upside.

But if we’re looking for strong skill sets in a winner’s previous appearance, we actually need to look for top-level driving. In Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brooks Koepka (twice), Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Martin Kaymer and Justin Rose we have 8 players who ranked 1st, 18th, 3rd, 25th, 1st, 1st, 16th, 1st and 8th for Total Driving in their previous appearance. For Martin Kaymer that happened to be at Wentworth, so he has to be excluded from the Strokes Gained stat angle, but that Total Driving number also translates very well to Strokes Gained Off the Tee.

Here Fitzpatrick (2nd), DeChambeau (16th), Koepka (5th), Koepka (2nd), Johnson (4th), Spieth (5th) and Rose (13th) clearly had real confidence with the driver when they arrived at Brookline, Torrey Pines, Winged Foot, Shinnecock Hills, Erin Hills, Oakmont, Chambers Bay and Merion respectively. If the European Tour had a consistent Strokes Gained Stat back in 2014, Kaymer would have been very close to the top of it at Wentworth as well.

If we go back to 2010 and look at Graeme McDowell’s lead in to his U.S. Open victory, he played the Wales Open on the European Tour, which he won. That week he topped Greens in Regulation at 80.6%, was 15th for Total Driving and was 2nd in the All-Round category.

2019 U.S. Open champion Gary Woodland was 52nd in his previous appearance at the  Memorial Tournament, which showed absolutely no hint of a Pebble Beach victory, but even with Woodland the All-Round, Total Driving and Strokes Gained Off The Tee angle works when you extrapolate a little. Prior to Muirfield Village, Gary had finished 8th at the PGA Championship – that was his second Major top 10 in his last 3 attempts. At Bethpage Black he’d ranked 4th for All-Round, 7th for Total Driving and 7th for Strokes Gained Off The Tee.

Now 2020 champion Bryson DeChambeau muddies the waters again, although in Covid times it’s worth noting it was played in mid-September. DeChambeau undoubtedly struggled with his All-Round came on his previous outing at East Lake. However both his Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Greens in Regulation numbers were in decent enough shape.

Covid again impacts the trend with Jon Rahm in 2021. Remember Rahm was leading the Memorial Tournament by 6 shots heading into Sunday when he tested positive for Covid-19 and had to withdraw. To say he was miffed was an understatement. Look at his numbers through 54 holes and, as you would expect, they were top drawer. 1st for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 3rd for Total Driving and 1st for All-Round at the time of withdrawal, safe to say Jon was at the very peak of his powers and I’m inclined to use those numbers for U.S. Open research purposes ongoing.

2022 champion Matt Fitzpatrick played the week before the U.S. Open at the RBC Canadian Open at St George’s G&CC in Toronto, where he finished in 10th spot. 2nd for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 18th for Total Driving and 7th for All-Round, marked him as a top contender to capture his first Major Championship in Massachusetts a week later.

And to bring this full circle, Wyndham Clark last year played the Memorial Tournament a fortnight before the Los Angeles Country Club-hosted U.S. Open. 1st for Total Driving (translated to 40th for Off the Tee incredibly), 2nd for Greens in Regulation and 3rd for All-Round was a beacon that if you overlooked his lack of Major experience. He would go on to win at a whopping 66/1.

U.S. Opens are traditionally all about the length of the rough. Every year from the Monday of tournament week we see videos on Social Media, with balls disappearing into rough and never reappearing! In every player interview prior to the off, the mantra is “got to keep the ball in the fairway,” and it’s continually repeated. The time old discussion point prior to U.S. Opens is how does the USGA’s policy of +4 inch rough actually affect the outcome of the tournament.

Now 2024 will be different as Pinehurst Number 2 has no rough whatsoever, so replace rough with natural areas, encompassing sand, wire grass, pine straw and a variety of native grasses. Sounds painful! “Long and straight works” is something I utter on our US Open Golf Betting System Podcast every year, but is that actually true?

Well a perusal of the last 9 winner’s season long statistics is quite revealing. Matt Fitzpatrick in 2022 was by far the shortest off the tee, ranking 91st for Driving Distance All Drives. Worth noting though that Fitzpatrick was undoubtedly work in progress in terms of his driving power, as he was 13th for Driving Distance at the RBC Canadian Open the week before, averaging a lengthy 310 yards off the tee.

Take Fitzpatrick out of the equation and taking 2015 through 2023 champions, Jordan Spieth was the shortest off the tee, although he ranked 43rd for Driving Distance All Drives – which is long enough. But from 2016 through 2023, it’s clear that brute power off the tee is a more than handy attribute to have. Dustin Johnson (2016), Brooks Koepka (2017/18), Gary Woodland (2019), Bryson DeChambeau (2020), Jon Rahm (2021) and Wyndham Clark (2023) all ranked in the top 17 for Driving Distance All Drives on the PGA Tour when arriving at their U.S. Open triumph.

For balance, 2014 U.S. Open Champion Martin Kaymer arriving at Pinehurst Number 2 ranked 37th for Driving Accuracy, 47th for Driving Distance and 36th for Driving Distance All-Drives. Great all-round numbers which translated to 10th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and 4th for Total Driving. That would suggest that Pinehurst Number 2 does actually respond to long and straight far more than the typical, heavily-roughed U.S. Open format.

This is Steve’s pre-event preview for the 2024 US Open. Steve’s final US Open tips for 2024 will be published here around 18:00BST on the Monday of the event.