US PGA Championship Longshots 2022

I backed Jason Kokrak as one of my longshots for The Masters last month and much of the same logic applies here at Southern Hills. 9^th heading into Sunday at Augusta gave us a good chance of an each-way return before a closing round of 73 meant a 14^th place finish and a blank for us, however I’m happy to keep the faith.

31^st in the OWGR now having only played sparingly since Augusta, Kokrak can still boast 3 wins in his last 40 starts overall, holding off the likes of Xander Schauffele (CJ Cup), Jordan Spieth (Charles Schwab Challenge) and Scottie Scheffler (HP Houston Open) into the bargain. Those last 2 wins came at -14 and -10 respectively, so he’s already proven himself capable of performing in this kind of winning score region, and for me it’s only a matter of time before he improves on a set of solid, if unspectacular, career Major efforts thus far.

Getting the ball out there isn’t an issue for the 6’ 4” beefcake who averages over 306 yards from off the tee for the season to date. 9^th for Sand Saves for 2022 and 46^th for Scrambling are also strong metrics for a week where missing these small greens will be commonplace, and that ties in nicely with the 36 year-old who’s comfortable on golf’s more stringent tests.

17^th last week on a low-scoring affair which isn’t really his bread and butter is encouraging, and a strong record at Colonial, culminating in last year’s victory after finishing 3^rd there in 2020, correlates nicely given the similar demands of that track and Southern Hills. RESULT: T60

In terms of ticking the boxes that I think will help us find Southern Hills contenders, Gary Woodland is right up there for me – despite being a 3-figure chance with most bookmakers.

On a stretching Par 70, those players who can combine length off the tee with enough accuracy to give themselves the best possible chance of finding the small putting surfaces are at a premium, and the 37 year-old has got that in spades.

17^th on Tour for the current season in terms of Driving Distance, Gary’s regular 310 yard pumps into the fairway are just what the doctor ordered here and with wind a feature in the forecast, his low ball flight will be key to keeping his ball out of the worst of the trouble.

Positive for Strokes Gained around the green, the Kansas-born Florida native has enough short game to save himself when greens are missed, however an in-form Gary Woodland misses fewer putting surfaces than most. 2^nd for GIR at the Mexico Open and 9^th on the same count at the Texas Open are two recent examples and when he does miss, 42^nd for Scrambling for the season to date puts him in the upper echelons of that statistic.

Of course there must be some negatives for a Major Champion that I’ve just described in such a positive light who’s available in excess of 100/1. Missed cuts at The Masters and on his last start at the Wells Fargo have kept him off the bookies’ radar, yet prior to that we’ve seen top-5 finishes at the Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational already this term as well as 8^th at the Texas Open last month, so he’s hardly in terrible nick.

6^th and 8^th at the US PGA Championship in 2018 and 2019 respectively, another finish in that same kind of region would reward each-way backers here this week, and there’s always the chance that he could push on and convert a second Major title. RESULT: T34

There was a time, in the not so dim and distant past, when Rickie Fowler was far closer to the top of the betting boards at Major Championships – and rightly so. 5 PGA Tour wins and a top-3 or better in each of the 4 Majors is impressive, even if he’s been guilty of not converting quite as often as he should.

Add to that list a Hero World Challenge title, two DP World Tour successes, plus an Asian Tour trophy for good measure and it’s easy to see why the bookies used to take no chances. Yet this week we’re getting a healthy 3-figure price, which is far longer on the Exchange if you’re happy to take your chances win-only, about this 33 year-old, who’s both got married and become a father since his form dropped away after his last Tour win in Phoenix in February 2019.

Perhaps off-course distractions are partially to blame, and the disruption from the pandemic can’t have helped either, however with home life settled now perhaps we’ll see him push on once again. Certainly this corresponding fixture last year offers some cause for optimism – 8^th at Kiawah Island came after a pair of missed cuts in the fortnight leading up to the event and marked his first top-10 finish on Tour for well over a year. 11^th to follow at Memorial on his next start and 3^rd later in the year at the CJ Cup provide further positivity, however it wasn’t until his most recent outing at TPC Potomac that we’ve seen anything noteworthy since. 21^st overall contained an opening round of 66 and a closing round of 68; middle rounds of 72/74 explain his final position, but positive signs nonetheless to take into this week.

A long, classical track with Bentgrass greens and wind in play would have been a nigh-on perfect combination for the Fowler of old heading into a Major Championship, so I’m happy to take a chance that he can rekindle some of the magic that saw him reach the dizzy heights of 4^th in the OWGR back in the day.

I can’t resist the price with the standard each-way terms on Fowler, however he’s also available at 200/1 with Unibet (7 places each way, 1/5) and 175/1 with bet365 (8 places each way, 1/5) at the time of writing if you prefer. RESULT: T23