US PGA Championship Longshots 2023

In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes – with the exception perhaps of Gary Woodland appearing in any Major Longshots column that I write.

I backed the Kansas man in this event last year where he flirted with an each-way place at Southern Hills, sitting in 10^th after both 36 and 54 holes before a final round 75 saw him finish in a tie for 34^th.

Unperturbed, I stuck with the 38 year-old a month later at Brookline where a much better finish saw Gary sneak into the US Open top 10 with a weekend pair of 69s to reward my faith. The equation is slightly different this time around as I want a top-8 finish out of him to secure the best market price, however it’s not out of the realms of possibility he makes the grade on what will be his 39^th birthday this Sunday.

Comfortable on challenging, classical tracks, Woodland’s record at another Major venue, Bethpage Black, may also be of relevance given he’s finished 4th and 8th there in 2016 and 2019 respectively, having sat in 12th place at halfway at the US Open back in 2009, long before he established himself as a PGA Tour winner.

8^th for Driving Distance, 10^th for SG Off the Tee and 10^th for SG Approach are eye-catching stats for the season to date for this Oak Hill test and Gary’s been playing some tidy golf in strong company of late, finishing 14^th at The Masters and 14^th again at the Wells Fargo Championship on his last start at Designated Event level, topping the field for SG Tee to Green on that most recent outing. RESULT: MC

It was heartbreak for Mito Pereira at last year’s PGA Championship and in truth it was painful to watch as he frittered away a 3-stroke lead heading into Sunday to just a solitary shot heading up the 72^nd hole. Water off the tee led to a double bogey and the Chilean star missed the play-off by a stroke, which was eventually won by Justin Thomas.

Bouncing back from such adversity isn’t easy, however there are plenty of precedents for exactly that happening in professional golf. This week’s venue, Oak Hill, has its own tale to tell having been the scene of Jason Dufner’s maiden Major victory in 2013, having relinquished a 5-shot lead in this same event 2 years earlier to eventually lose in a play-off to Keegan Bradley.

Of course this is all well and good, however Mito himself can’t rely on a rather hefty demon needing exorcising to see him over the line here. Good job then that the 28 year-old has the raw credentials to contend here this year, even if we’re relying on far more basic statistics to piece together how he’s playing now that he’s part of the LIV circuit.

2^nd at the Dunlop Phoenix (Japan Tour), 6^th at the Saudi International and 11^th in Oman (both Asian Tour) preceded Mito’s LIV debut and he’s hit the ground running with three top-6 finishes from six starts, including most recently in a Singapore a little over a fortnight ago.

GIR rankings of 10^th, 8^th, 1^st, 4^th, 2^nd, 1^st, 8^th, 20^th, 3^rd and 15^th since the Dunlop Phoenix combined with his power from off the tee could prove to be a potent combination for Oak Hill, and 30^th last week in Tulsa has largely kept him off the bookies’ radar, despite shooting a second round 64. RESULT: T18

Finally, of the DP World Tour players descending on Oak Hill, perhaps Thorbjorn Olesen will fare better than most in what may well prove to be challenging and changeable conditions.

Seven times a winner on the European circuit over the years, the 33 year-old recorded his most recent success in Thailand in February with a sumptuous display of front-running to fend off the talented Yannik Paul by 4 strokes.

Weather conditions look markedly different for this week’s task to the sticky 90 degrees Fahrenheit that Bangkok offered, however Olesen has proven himself in a variety of conditions over the years, including at a chilly St Andrews at the 2015 Dunhill Links and a challenging Belfry at last year’s British Masters.

Aside from a 2023 form line that reads 20/16/4/1/6/32/40/3, with that most recent 3^rd place finish coming last week in Belgium, what’s really stood out this year is how well the Dane’s been striking the ball. 18^th for SG Off the Tee, 6^th for SG Approach and 5^th for SG Tee to Green are mightily impressive season-to-date figures for a player who can also get hot with the putter, and it was actually the flat stick which caught the eye last week as he recorded his best SG Putting performance since last July.

9^th at the 2012 Open Championship and 6^th at the following year’s Masters demonstrate an aptitude at the very top level of world golf and with his game in great shape right now, and conditions quite likely to feel more comfortable to the northern Europeans given the forecast, perhaps Olesen can bag himself a strong finish and take another step towards making Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup team. RESULT: MC