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Congratulations if you were on-board Jason Day at 18/1 last week. Now United Kingdom readers will get me when I say in the ubiquitous style of Saint and Greavsie that golf “is a funny old game,” with Jason Day’s PGA Tour career going full circle last week. His first ever PGA Tour win was at the 2010 HP Byron Nelson Championship, a feat he matched on Sunday at the AT&T Byron Nelson in what was his first victory for 5 years. I landed a 14/1 full each-way return on Tyrrell Hatton.
Day was the 14th winner on the PGA Tour from 20 tournaments so far in 2023 at 28/1 or shorter – that’s certainly worthy of note.
On to this week and the 105th PGA Championship is visiting the East Course at Oak Hill Country Club for the fourth time. It should be an absolute feast of golf with the deepest field in Major Championship golf present.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the US PGA Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System around the Majors. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: The East Course at Oak Hill Country Club has hosted 6 Major Championships, including the U.S. Open 3 times (1956, 1968, 1989) and 3 PGA Championships (1980, 2003, 2013), plus the 1995 Ryder Cup. The 2023 PGA Championship though will be the first time that we see the latest East Course which has been facilitated by a renovation under the auspices of Andrew Green. This will be the first time that top-level competitive action takes place on the course, which has seen significant changes since Jason Dufner plotted his way around here in 2013 to win his one and only Major Championship.
East Course, Oak Hill Country Club, Rochester, New York: Designer: Donald Ross, 1925, with Andrew Green 2020; Course Type: Classical, Technical, Long; Par: 70; Length: 7,394 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bentgrass with Poa Annua; Rough: Ryegrass, Bluegrass and Tall Fescue; Greens: 4,500 sq.ft average featuring Bentgrass.
East Course, Oak Hill Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Oak Hill and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald Ross designs include:
Course Overview: The East Course is a Donald Ross 1925 original. In terms of PGA Tour stop-offs, his most well known is East Lake which hosts the Tour Championship annually. Sedgefield Country Club also hosts the Wyndham Championship every year, the week before the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Another annual Donald Ross stop-off, which actually features Bentgrass greens as per Oak Hill, is Detroit Golf Club, home to the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
The course was renovated in 2020 by Andrew Green, which has substantially changed since we last saw Jason Dufner win the 2013 PGA Championship. Green naturally has added length to the East Course. Where it played as a 7,163 yard, Par 70 in 2013, expect a 7,394 yard, Par 70 in 2023.
With freshly opened holes via tree removal, wider fairways, new bunkers and exposed green edges, Oak Hill’s East Course won’t look or function much like the claustrophobic layout that Jason Dufner dissected in 2013. At the 2013 PGA Championship the East Course was a tight affair, with hundreds of trees encroaching on the course and the lines of approach. Accuracy over power won out in the end. Andrew Green’s renovation adds over 200 yards to the course length, but the removal of over 500 trees will ultimately mean that the East Course, like most PGA Championship venues, will now play more towards power off the tee rather than accuracy.
Fairway widths aren’t overly generous at 27-28 yards wide. For comparison Southern Hills 12 months ago featured 40 yard wide fairways. Every bunker on the course has been re-worked and made to be more in Donald Ross styling. They are more rugged, bolder and do undoubtedly present a challenge. Fairway bunkering, dependent on ball positioning, can penalise half a shot up to a full shot, making players very aware of them as part of their course management strategy.
The East Course now features a new short par-3 5th with an elevated green guarded by bunkers on 3 sides. The new 6th hole is now the most difficult hole, a 500 yard par-4 curving around Allen Creek. At the par-3 15th hole, the unpopular rock wall and pond added by the Fazios has been removed by Green, who borrowed design aesthetics from Ross’s 3rd to revive a postage stamp green.
The standard Donald Ross design feature is sloping back to front green complexes with the East Course featuring plenty of them. Square in make-up, they are small at 4,500 square feet on average. Most are elevated with accompanying deep bunkering plus the vast majority have false fronts, which will see approach shots roll back down to tightly cut green approaches. The back and sides of most greens are sloping and feature thick Ryegrass and Bluegrass rough. With the false fronts, some other greens also feature closely mown shaved areas, which again see errant approaches travel into collection areas way below the green surface.
The key for punters though will be to dissect in detail the weather and what course conditions will be in play this week. Oak Hill is in New York State. With the banks of Lake Ontario within 6 miles, this is a very northerly location for a mid-May hosted PGA Championship. Snow will have still been on the ground in mid-March, and with snowmelt saturating the local water table, plus plenty of precipitation in the build-up, you cannot see the East Course playing anything else bar extremely long with limited run on the fairways. Low temperatures – see the weather forecast below – early morning dew and plenty of wind will undoubtedly make this a technical (high-scoring affair).
PGA Championship Winners: 2022: Justin Thomas (-6); 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6); 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13); 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8); 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16); 2017: Justin Thomas (-8); 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14); 2015: Jason Day (-20); 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16); 2013: Jason Dufner (-10); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-13); 2011: Keegan Bradley (-8); 2010: Martin Kaymer (-11); 2009: Y.E. Yang (-8).
OWGR of PGA Championship Winners: 2022: Thomas 9; 2021: Mickelson 115; 2020: Morikawa 12; 2019: Koepka 3; 2018: Koepka 4; 2017: Thomas 14.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | Recent Majors Stats.
Published Predictor Models: My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Sungjae Im.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own model in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
PGA Championship Winners & Prices: 2022: Thomas 16/1; 2021: Mickelson 250/1; 2020: Morikawa 35/1; 2019: Koepka 11/1JF; 2018: Koepka 20/1; 2017: Thomas 45/1; 2016: Jimmy Walker 150/1; 2015: Day 14/1; 2014: McIlroy 5/1F; 2013: Dufner 40/1; 2012: McIlroy 20/1; 2011: Bradley 175/1; 2010: Kaymer 50/1. Average: 64/1.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Rochester, New York, is here.
250mm (10 inches) of rain has fallen in Rochester, New York since the turn of March. That’s a lot. Saying that, the course has been more or less dry for the past 7 days which must have been great news for Jeff Corcoran who is Oak Hill’s Golf Course and Grounds Manager. There’s a chance of rain this Tuesday plus Friday into Saturday, with over night temperatures approaching just 3-6 degrees Celsius (38 -43 Fahrenheit) on Thursday and Friday mornings. So the course, turf wise on the fairways and rough, will be lush and moist. I can’t see the ball rolling out a great deal.
Thursday will be the scoring day. A cold start, warming up to 16 degrees Celsius (61 Fahrenheit) with little wind, will see the course at its easiest. Friday sees a cold start again, with south-westerly winds approaching 30mph. Temperatures warm to a 22 degree Celsius (72 Fahrenheit) high, still gusting 25mph in the afternoon. Saturday will be overcast all day, with 50-70% chance of rain, and no electrical activity. So if the course is good, play will continue. The wind drops with temperatures in the mid-teens Celsius.
Final round Sunday sees 16-18 degree Celsius (61-64 Fahrenheit) temperatures plus sunshine. A 15-20 mph wind returns which will change to a north-westerly direction.
Player Strokes Gained 8-Week Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Dell Technologies World Match Play / Jonsson Workwear Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Player Strokes Gained 8-Week Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Dell Technologies World Match Play which includes PGA Tour and DP World Tour events and but only PGA Tour players. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Want to see who the best Major Championship performers have been since the start of 2017? Here is our Recent Major Championship Finish Analysis.
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the PGA Championship since 2010:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the PGA Championship winners since 2010 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Incoming Form of PGA Championship winners since 2010:
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
Winning prices in the PGA Championship can vary significantly. Short prices such as Rory McIlroy – who’s won this title twice at 20/1 (2012) and 5/1 favourite (2014) – and Jason Day at 14/1 (2015) have had much recent success. Throw in Brooks Koepka at 20/1 and 11/1 joint favourite over 2018 and 2019, plus last year’s winner Justin Thomas at 16/1, and we have 6 of the past 11 winners landing at sub-20/1. Add Collin Morikawa at 35/1, Justin Thomas (2017) at 45/1 and Jason Dufner at 40/1. So 9 of the last 11 PGA Championships have been won at 45/1 or less.
To this point there are also four triple-digit exceptions since 2009, with Phil Mickelson’s 250/1 win in 2021 at Kiawah Island very fresh in the mind. Jimmy Walker is another, as he played brilliantly throughout at Baltusrol in 2016 to lead from start to finish and capture his first Major title at an unbelievable (after the tournament) 150/1. He joined Keegan Bradley (2011) and Y.E. Yang (2009) who won at 175/1 and 150/1 respectively.
The PGA Championship in recent history has seen a plethora of long-hitters getting the job done, with many capturing their first Major titles. Exclude Oak Hill in 2013 (7,163 yard Par 70) and TPC Harding Park last year (7,234 yard Par 70), which weren’t your stereotypical long, PGA Championship venues, and Y.E. Yang (2009), Martin Kaymer (2010), Keegan Bradley (2011), Jason Day (2015), Jimmy Walker (2016) and Justin Thomas (2017), have all been long off the tee and captured first-time Majors to boot. Add Dufner and Morikawa to that first-time list on those shorter Par 70s.
Rory McIlroy (winner at Kiawah Island in 2012 and Valhalla in 2014), Brooks Koepka who drove the field into submission at both Bellerive (2018) and Bethpage Black (2019), plus Justin Thomas (2022) at Southern Hills who ranked 11th for Driving Distance – All Drives landing in Oklahoma – provide even more evidence that long hitters have a distinct advantage at “traditional” PGA Championships. Kiawah Island was by the coast, but both of those renewals were won by Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson – the latter still ranked 50th in Driving Distance on the PGA Tour when becoming the oldest Major champion at 50 years of age 2 years ago.
Naturally the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone South is no more, but the idea that a player will need to be playing well in their immediate start, which for most of the elite will be either the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, or last week’s Byron Nelson in Texas, should be one to consider and we have masses of precedent here. Going back to 2006, every winner of the PGA Championship has played within the past 2 weeks prior to their victory and up until Phil Mickelson, had finished no worse than 28th (Justin Thomas 2017). Phil being Phil finished 69th at the Wells Fargo. Justin Thomas last year finished 5th the week before at the Byron Nelson.
Go further back to 2002, 2004 and 2005 and you will see that PGA Championship winners Rich Beem, Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh finished 1st, 10th and 1st respectively in their preceding outings. So strong incoming form seems a prerequisite.
If outsiders are your preference than Paul Williams picks out his favourite 3 triple-digits punts for this week in his longshots preview here.
Jon Rahm 4pts Win 8/1 (Enhanced Win Only) with bet365
It’s evident that we now have a “Big 2” in golf. As I write this betting preview, they are joint favourites. Scottie Scheffler has 2 wins in 2023 across the Waste Management Phoenix Open and The Players Championship. 5th last week in his home town of Dallas, Scheffler has to be respected. But I’m siding with Jon Rahm who this week goes for the same double Major winning start to a year that Jordan Spieth was last to achieve back in 2015.
I can remember it like it was yesterday when Spieth won The Masters at 11/1 and then travelled to Chambers Bay, Washington for the U.S. Open. I was on Dustin Johnson at 22/1 that year, who 3-putted from 12 feet on the 72nd hole to gift Spieth the victory at 9/1. You always remember the losses more!
2023 has seen Jon Rahm win 4 titles. The Sentry Tournament of Champions (15/2F), The American Express (15/2F), the Genesis Invitational (15/2F) and The Masters (9/1). 8/1 seems fair in those circumstances and I have been massively impressed with “Rahmbo” since the Green Jacket was placed on his shoulders by Scottie Scheffler at Augusta.
A free-wheeling 15th the week after at Harbour Town was impressive as he ranked 12th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 1st for Approach and 7th for Tee to Green on a course that takes away Rahm’s advantage off the tee. He then resurfaced a fortnight later at the Mexico Open where he fired a Saturday -10/61 and a weekend -14/128 to keep his good friend Tony Finau honest. 6th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Jon was amazing with the flat stick, ranking 2nd for Strokes Gained Putting.
So onto the PGA Championship at an East Course, which has been described as a great All-Round test. Well Jon unsurprisingly ranks number 1 in that particular category this season on the PGA Tour and I think that his prowess both Off the Tee and with his mid- to long-irons should really come to the fore. Let’s not also forget that Jon ranks 28th for Scrambling and 3rd for Bogey Avoidance, which is pretty perfect for the tough scoring conditions this week in New York State. RESULT: T50
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Brooks Koepka 2pts EW 18/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Brooks Koepka has always been a Major Championship monster.
The PGA Tour and now the LIV Tour has always been secondary to the Floridian. With 4 of Koepka’s 8 PGA Tour wins being Majors themselves, Brooks wants his legacy to be remembered purely on the volume of Major success and a PGA Championship on a long, classical, tough golf course in New York State must have him licking his chops in anticipation.
And that’s the deal with Brooks who can mix it in all conditions and on all Major Championship golf courses, no matter the weather. In the past we have landed him at 20/1 and 11/1 across both his PGA Championship wins, and I can’t really see a reason to swap allegiance for this one. The first LIV player to win 2 events – now matched by Talor Gooch – Brooks highlighted that he was back at the top table of world golf at Augusta National in April. 18-, 36- and 54-hole leader at The Masters, it all got a little too much in a Sunday head-to-head with Jon Rahm. But with confidence now restored at the highest level I can only see Koepka, who additionally has 9 top-5 and 3 further top-10 finishes over and above his 4 Major wins since 2014, contending again here.
66-under in all Major Championships since 2016 and with a formidable 70.12 Major Championship Scoring Average since the 2017 Masters, Brooks, when fit, has always been pretty straightforward to read. If the driver and approach play is peaking then watch out at the Majors. Now we have no Strokes Gained data to trawl through, but “BK” was 3rd (LIV Singapore) and 5th (LIV Tulsa) across his last 2 LIV appearances, where the 33 year-old ranked 5th and 7th for Total Driving, 8th and 8th for Greens in Regulation, plus 3rd and 6th for Ball Striking. Koepka shot a pair of closing -5/65s at Tulsa Saturday and Sunday. He’s ready. RESULT: Winner
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Xander Schauffele 2pts ew 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill
Cameron Smith, Matt Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler all scooped first Major Championship success in 2022 at 28/1, 25/1 and 16/1 respectively. You could build obvious cases for Patrick Cantlay (now with Joe LaCava on the bag), Tony Finau (4 wins in his last 18 starts) or Cameron Young (with fresh caddie Paul Tesori) at similar prices, but I’m siding with Xander Schauffele.
Xander is a real Major Championship performer. 6 top-5 plus an additional 4 top-10 finishes in 23 Majors is proven and outstanding. A 70.62 Major Championship Scoring Average since the 2017 Masters places him 5th behind Koepka, Scheffler, Morikawa and McIlroy of players with multiple starts. As far as Majors are concerned, 10th last time out Augusta National followed 13th, 14th and 15th across the PGA, U.S. Open and Open Championship last year. He hasn’t converted as yet, but he’s always there or thereabouts.
The difference here could be two-fold. Firstly he loves golf in the north-eastern United States. Take the past 3 Majors played in New York State. Xander finished 6th at the 2018 U.S. Open hosted at Shinnecock Hills, 16th at the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black (8th after 54 holes) and 5th at the 2020 U.S. Open hosted at Winged Foot. He also won last year’s Travelers Championship played at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut.
Secondly he’s in white-hot form. A Quarter Finalist at the WGC Dell World Match Play, 10th at Augusta, 4th at Harbour Town, 4th at the pairs event (with Patrick Cantlay) in New Orleans and 2nd at Quail Hollow. For Strokes Gained Current Form across the last 8 weeks in my Strokes Gained tracker you won’t find a better player, where he ranks 2nd for Tee to Green and 21st for Strokes Gained Putting.
Throw in a Donald Ross design record which in our PGA Championship predictor model over the past 5 years is second only to Rory McIlroy, and the picture is pretty clear. Xander has a superb chance this week to land his first Major Championship. RESULT: T18
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Tommy Fleetwood 1pt ew 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
As a Major Championship campaigner, you have to respect Tommy Fleetwood as well this week.
Yes I know he hasn’t won a Major Championship and I know he’s never won in the United States, nor on the PGA Tour, but with plenty of the elite in this field unlikely to get on with the East Course at Oak Hill in very British playing conditions, if they materialise they undoubtedly enhance the Englishman’s chances this week. The only player to keep Shane Lowry honest at a windswept Royal Portrush in 2019, Tommy’s form across the Florida Swing on the PGA Tour highlights a player who can grind with the very best.
Fleetwood finds himself in great nick arriving in New York State with 3rd at the Valspar Championship, 15th at the RBC Heritage and 5th at the Wells Fargo Championship. He had chances to win in Tampa and has been right in the mix across the past 2 designated PGA Tour events. At Quail Hollow last time out, Tommy was First Round Leader and 5th going into Sunday. In the top 27 for Strokes Gained across all facets of his game, he was 5th for Tee to Green, 4th for Greens in Regulation and tellingly 2nd for Scrambling.
Plus when you look at his Major results from 2022, they were excellent. 14th at The Masters, 5th at the PGA Championship at Southern Hills and 4th at the Open Championship at St Andrews. I would suggest that only Scottie Scheffler, Cam Smith, Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris had a better, more consistent body of work over the 4 biggest tournaments of the year. Throw in his 4th at the 2017 U.S. Open (Erin Hills) and 2nd at the 2018 U.S. Open (Shinnecock, New York) and a tough PGA Championship in Rochester, New York starts to make all the sense. Tommy comes to the fore on hard courses, in tough conditions, so this week at Oak Hill should be ideal for him. RESULT: T18
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 12:55BST 15.5.23 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.