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Si-Woo Kim backers, I feel for you. Both Barry and Paul championed him on the Golf Betting System podcast – along with Paul Dunne in Spain for that matter – and the 2-time PGA Tour winner was in control heading into the back 9 on Sunday. But as we know, the final group at the RBC Heritage seems cursed year-in and year-out, with non-member Satoshi Kodaira taking the eventual play-off victory. He earned $1.2 million but more importantly a 3-year PGA Tour exemption, so we’ll be seeing the new World Number 27 far more often going forwards. For this column Webb Simpson earned a full 40/1 place payout.

This week we travel to Texas for the Valero Texas Open. Traditionally a tough spot on the PGA Tour, the Greg Norman designed AT&T Oaks Course is a long and tough Par 72. The tournament has always been the nomad of the PGA Tour as it has been played historically across the Fall Series before moving to before The Masters. This is now the third year where the tournament falls after the RBC Heritage, but for 2019 it was announced last week that this will again become the Masters curtain-raiser. The tournament was also played pre-2010 at the low scoring Par 70 at La Cantrera.

The winners’ list here includes Adam Scott (30/1), Jimmy Walker (25/1), Charley Hoffman (30/1) and Kevin Chappell (33/1) as well as Steven Bowditch (350/1), Brendan Steele (300/1) and Ben Curtis (150/1). Very much from the logical to the illogical!

Course Guide: The AT&T Oaks course at TPC San Antonio is not your typical US golf course and, if conditions allow, it traditionally plays fiery and fast. This Greg Norman design (remember El Camaleon, home of the OHL Classic, is his other currently scheduled PGA Tour course) is a stretching Par 72 measuring 7,435 yards and features tight fairways at over 300 yards carry, the likes of which we saw at GC of Houston a few weeks back. However miss the fairway and the rough is more penal than Houston, plus there’s all manner of natural hazards. Greens are undulating, multi-tiered and exotic in their grass structure featuring Emerald Dwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with a combination of Velvet Bentgrass and Poa Trivialis. Scoring difficulty, as is the norm in Texas, is dictated by wind strength and with at least 3 days featuring gusting 20+ mph winds in San Antonio this week, don’t expect a birdie barrage.

Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas: Designer: Greg Norman 2009; Course Type: Technical; Par: 72; Length: 7,435 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 2; Fairways: Bermudagrass, Rye & Fescue; Rough: Bermudagrass 2″; Greens: 6,400 sq.ft average Emerald Dwarf Bermudagrass overseeded with Velvet Bentgrass and Poa Trivialis; Tournament Stimp: 11.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 73.97 (+1.97), Difficulty Rank 4 of 49 courses. 2013: 72.74 (+0.74), Difficulty Rank 15 of 43 courses. 2014: 73.29 (+1.29), Rank 8 of 48 courses. 2015: 74.52 (+2.52), Difficulty Rank of 2 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.21 (+0.21), Difficulty Rank of 17 of 50 courses. 2017: 72.85 (+0.85), Difficulty Rank of 10 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for the Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:28; 325:27; 350:25.
• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 30 yards wide; 275:24; 300:21; 325:26; 350:23.
• Golf Club of Houston: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:31; 325:25; 350:28.
• Bay Hill: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:34; 325:39; 350:30.
• Copperhead: 250 yards from tee: 26 yards wide; 275:21; 300:22; 325:24; 350:20.
• PGA National: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:27; 300:24; 325:27; 350:24.
• Riviera: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26; 325:26; 350:28.
• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 41 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:34 350:29
• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:28 350:28
• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:25 350:23

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Greg Norman designs include:

• El Camaleon GC – OHL Classic
• TPC at Sugarloaf – 1997 – 2008 AT&T Classic
• Earth Course – DP World Tour Championship (European Tour)

Course Overview: The Oaks Course layout is undoubtedly a brute. Take 2016: despite a soft course, relatively receptive greens and tranquil conditions across the opening 3 days of play, only 3 players made it into double-digit under par numbers. 2017 saw plenty of rain hit the course on tournament Monday, but despite a soft course and receptive greens only winner Kevin Chappell and runner-up Brooks Koepka made it to double-digits under par. A mixture of course length, intimidating tee shots, all manner of off-fairway hazards and tough, undulating green complexes make the course a technical beast. Greens are also perched up with fairway cut around them, taking errant approaches into collection areas. It’s hardly a surprise then that the greens here were the 3rd hardest to hit on the PGA Tour last season.

Power hitting is undoubtedly a huge advantage here, allowing the par-5s to be unlocked, and it’s noticeable that 3 of the previous 5 winners here have led par-5 scoring in the week they triumphed: Laird (2013), Walker (2015) and Hoffman (2016) shot -10, -12 and -9 across their 16 looks at the long holes. Shorter hitters can contend, but since Greg Norman re-sculpted the course prior to the 2013 renewal, power wins. Although critical, par-5 scoring on this course is tremendously hard with 3 of the 4 ‘scoring holes’ measuring over 590 yards. Greens are severely contoured so putting is difficult and the fairways are some of the most testing the Tour pros will face this season. For me though on a course that traditionally ranks as one of the hardest for Greens in Regulation when the wind blows, and also in the bottom 3 on Tour for par-5 Birdie or Better Conversion, we need to look for aggressive ball-strikers who are very apt at Going for the Green as much as possible.

Winners: 2017: Kevin Chappell (-12); 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12); 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11); 2014: Steven Bowditch (-8); 2013: Martin Laird (-14); 2012: Ben Curtis (-9); 2011: Brendan Steele (-8); 2010: Adam Scott (-14).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Matt Kuchar, Kevin Chappell, Charley Hoffman, Sergio Garcia, Brendan Steele, Zach Johnson, Ryan Palmer, Luke List, Jason Kokrak, and Chesson Hadley.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Ryan Moore; 2) Ryan Armour; 3) Jim Furyk / Shubhankar Sharma; 5) Chad Campbell / Sergio Garcia; 7) Keegan Bradley; 8) David Hearn; 9) Michael Thompson; 10) Vaughn Taylor; 11) Martin Laird; 12) Chris Kirk / Kevin Na; 14) Fabian Gomez; 15) Andrew Landry; 16) Kevin Streelman / Andrew Yun; 18) Russell Knox; 19) Alex Cejka / Billy Horschel / Pat Perez / Jonathan Randolph.
• Greens in Regulation: 1) Adam Scott; 2) Sergio Garcia; 3) Trey Mullinax; 4) Luke List; 5) Tom Lovelady / Brendan Steele; 7) Keegan Bradley; 8) Charley Hoffman / Xander Schauffele; 10) Michael Thompson; 11) Scott Piercy / Adam Schenk; 13) Jason Kokrak / J.T. Poston; 15) Bronson Burgoon; 16) Denny McCarthy / Nick Watney; 18) Ryan Moore; 19) Stewart Cink / Corey Conners / Pat Perez.
• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Ricky Barnes; 2) John Huh; 3) Kevin Na / Rod Pampling; 5) Kevin Chappell / Bob Estes; 7) Nicholas Lindheim; 8) Sergio Garcia / Chesson Hadley; 10) Grayson Murray; 11) Greg Chalmers; 12) Michael Kim / Brendan Steele; 14) Matt Jones; 15) Ben Crane / Si Woo Kim; 17) Dominic Bozzelli / Luke List / Troy Merritt / Aaron Wise.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Chappell 33/1; 2016: Hoffman 30/1; 2015: Jimmy Walker 25/1; 2014: Bowditch 350/1; 2013: Laird 100/1; 2012: Curtis 150/1; 2011: Steele 300/1; 2010: Scott 25/1. Average: 126/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 109/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind SSE 10-20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 86. Wind SSE 15-25 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy and cooler, with a high of 67. Wind NNE 15-25, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 74. Wind N 10-18 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Overcast, with heavy rains in the morning. Sunny in the afternoon, with wind NE at 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 81. Wind NE at 8-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 81. Wind ESE at 8-12 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with a high of 77. Wind SSE at 7-12 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 62. Wind SSW at 15-25 mph, with gusts to 38 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 77. Wind WSW at 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 78. Wind SSW at 7-12 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 82. Wind S at 15-25 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for San Antonio, Texas, is here. Conditions-wise we should see a lush course from the start of the tournament as the area received 30mm of rain across Friday and Saturday. A light breeze on Thursday will aid scoring, but from there winds gusting 20+ mph are forecast across the rest of the tournament. Showers could be a feature for Friday morning, but Saturday sees an 80% chance of serious rain with electrical activity. Sunday will be fine, but again gusting 20mph. Temperatures throughout are over 24 degrees Celsius.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the 8 winners of the Valero Texas Open since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2017, Kevin Chappell (-12). 297 yards (25th), 58.9% fairways (35th), 72.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 35’7″ proximity to hole (10th), 65.0 % scrambling (26th), 1.69 putts per GIR (14th).
• 2016, Charley Hoffman (-12). 301 yards (4th), 64.3% fairways (34th), 68.1% greens in regulation (17th), 37’8″ proximity to hole (47th), 65.2 % scrambling (42nd), 1.59 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2015, Jimmy Walker (-11). 303 yards (4th), 53.6% fairways (45th), 70.8% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 38’10” (16th), 61.9 % scrambling (27th), 1.65 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2014, Steven Bowditch (-8). 297 yards (15th), 51.8% fairways (49th), 61.1% greens in regulation (15th), proximity to hole 39’7″ (51st), 71.4 % scrambling (11th), 1.64 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2013, Martin Laird (-14). 298 yards (20th), 66.1% fairways (8th), 69.4% greens in regulation (7th), proximity to hole 36’1″ (37th), 63.6% scrambling (37th), 1.60 putts per GIR (4th).
• 2012, Ben Curtis (-9). 269 yards (74th), 73.2% fairways (2nd), 68.1% greens in regulation (1st), proximity to hole 31’3″ (2nd), 73.9% scrambling (4th), 1.69 putts per GIR (15th).
• 2011, Brendan Steele (-8). 303 yards (10th), 64.3% fairways (7th), 58.3% greens in regulation (40th), proximity to hole 39’5″ (51st), 73.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (13th).
• 2010, Adam Scott (-14). 306 yards (5th), 53.6% fairways (40th), 66.7% greens in regulation (19th), proximity to hole 37’3″ (38th), 79.2% scrambling (2nd), 1.69 putts per GIR (15th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 20th, Driving Accuracy: 28th, Greens in Regulation: 13th, Proximity to Hole: 32nd, Scrambling: 19th, Putting Average 9th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC San Antonio sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Kevin Chappell (2017): “Missing it in the right spots is the key. It was windy enough you had to really think about what shots you can take on and, if you did, getting the ball in the right place. I was fortunate to be chipping back into the wind a lot and that made it a lot easier. The ball – it’s warm and windy is the recipe to hit the ball really far. So, we hit a few shots went 10, 15 yards further than we thought they would. Into the kind the ball is going nowhere because it’s blowing so hard. It’s a good mixture on this golf course, lot of holes run north/south. With the wind blowing out of south today, you know, you had a good mixture of both. For me I played enough rounds around here that I probably played every wind they have. So, you know, I look forward to the challenge. My game tends to rise in more difficult conditions so I look forward to that on the weekend.“

Charley Hoffman (2016): “Tee to green is very visual, shapes with the trees and it’s a tough driving golf course. I usually drive it pretty good and got to be accurate when you’re hitting in there. For some reason I’ve been able to roll the putter. Conditions are a lot different than normal. Usually you’re trying to land them short, today you’re trying to get them past the hole and suck them back. No rough, no overseeding. Premium on driving isn’t quite as much. You can hit them in the rough and have a shot at the green. There’s low scores out there, still going to make some putts in the right spots.“

Jimmy Walker (2015): “I still think the greens are going to stay relatively firm. Even talking to some guys yesterday that played that even after the rain, they were still getting some nice bounces and release after the rain. The fairways were obviously kind of not running as well. The rough isn’t like it was last year. Last year it was overseeded. This year they didn’t and the Bermuda has come back but hasn’t all grown yet. Driving the ball in the rough isn’t going to be, I don’t think, a big deal this week, just because it’s not very long. You can get some pretty nice lies in the rough. So that’s just a South Texas thing right now this time of year. The transition and everything is coming back.

They keep making minor improvements to the golf course. It’s really resonating with the guys. A lot of guys like to show up and play a tough golf course. It’s kind of the deal if you get bad weather you feel like half the field is out. They’re in a bad mood. There’s guys that enjoy coming and playing tough tracks where you don’t have to shoot 18, 25-under. We shot 9-under last year and won, something like that. It’s a tough track. The opening stretch here is pretty good. 1 through 4 you got to kind of have all your stuff together. You do have a par 5 in there but it’s really not too reachable by 90-some-odd percent of the field. It’s a good par 5. And then 3 is a tough par 3 and 4 is a great, tough, 485-yard hole with a tiny green. You got to be precise. It’s got some tough tee shots, got some tough second shots and the greens can be a little tricky to read. They’ve got some South Texas grain in them. It can play with you a little bit.“

Jordan Spieth: “Well, for one, the trouble isn’t the hazard. You’re going in to try to find your ball or you’re walking up thinking you’re going to find it in a good spot. And then when it’s not in a good spot, well, now I don’t want to find it. You want to play it as a lost ball. You get guys that are coming up and walking all the way back. That takes a lot of time. If it’s a hazard and you didn’t find it, you know it went in, take a drop there, that saves five to ten minutes on that hole. So because it’s so challenging on both sides of the fairway, you get any shots astray, which will happen tomorrow in the wind, it’s going to slow down the round significantly, especially if you’re trying to grind. Any tough course is going to play slow towards the lead groups because for whatever reason you’re normally grinding it out a little bit more. I don’t think it should change, no matter what position you’re in, but I do it for whatever reason, and it just happens. So, yeah, I just think because of the trouble off the tee that this course maybe could yield slower play than other places.“

Steven Bowditch: “I mean maybe the fairways are a little more softer or forgiving, if that’s what you want to call it. There’s good and bad things to that. It tends to make the golf course fraction wider, because the ball doesn’t run out on the same lines. But it makes it longer, too. I think it’s playing a little tougher this year already, just because the greens are a little firmer. The ball is not going as far and especially with the weather coming for the first couple of days, anyway, it’s going to cool right down, so that will make it even longer.

I think all in all the scoring, depending on the wind I think the scoring will pretty much be similar. But the greens being so perfect to putt on, if you get your putter rolling, you might come from anywhere. The golf course just doesn’t give you too much, there’s no let up out there. Every hole you can make a birdie, hit a good shot. But every hole as a bogey and double, all around. Just finer points, ball running off the green, the rough is sticky around the greens, it can be hard to get it up and down. So I would probably say under and over probably be about 10 under, pretty similar this year.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 Valero Open winners:

• 2017 – Kevin Chappell: Round 1: 19th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Charley Hoffman: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 3rd.
• 2015 – Jimmy Walker: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2014 – Steven Bowditch: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Martin Laird: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 15th, Round 3: 7th.
• 2012 – Ben Curtis: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Brendan Steele: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 25th, Round 2: 22nd, Round 3: 6th.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Kevin Chappell: 7th Augusta/44th Houston/39th WMP/49th Bay Hill.
• Charley Hoffman: 14th Harbour/29th Augusta/33rd Houston/11th Copperhead
• Jimmy Walker: 31st Doral /41st Riviera/21st Pebble/7th Torrey.
• Steven Bowditch: MC Copperhead/37th Puerto Rico/MC PGA National/MC Riviera.
• Martin Laird: MC Houston/34th Bay Hill/70th Copperhead/MC PGA National.
• Ben Curtis: MC Houston/14th Puerto Rico/13th Dubai/47th Qatar.
• Brendan Steele: 51st Houston/38th Bay Hill /MC Copperhead/MC Puerto Rico.
• Adam Scott: 26th TPC Sawgrass/MC Quail Hollow/18th Augusta/14th Houston.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010.

• 2017 – Grace – AM -6/66 – 33/1.
• 2016 – Steele – PM -8/64.
• 2015 – Hoffman – PM -5/67
• 2014 – Loupe – PM -5/67.
• 2013 – Bettencourt / Tomasulo – Both PM -5/67.
• 2012 – Every – AM -9/63.
• 2011 – Cink / Henry – AM/PM Split -5/67.
• 2010 – Jones – AM -6/66.

We face an interesting conundrum this week with regards the difficult AT&T Oaks Course itself in an event that can be very fanciful from a betting perspective. Let’s firstly start with my views on the course. It’s abundantly clear that this Norman design is a bit of a brute. Even though holes 1, 4 and 10 were made less challenging with green re-sculpting and fairway widening work prior to 2013’s renewal, the course is perennially one of the toughest Par 72s on the Tour as par-5 scoring on this course is tremendously hard. Greens are severely contoured so putting is difficult and the fairways are some of the most testing the Tour pros will face this season – long and tight and surrounded by masses of trouble. Greens are hard to hit in volume and the putting surfaces themselves repel approach shots from pin positions very ably.

It’s also worth remembering that this is only the third time that the Texas Open has been played 2 weeks after The Masters. Looking at the past 7 winners in this post-Augusta slot, Bohn (80/1), Horschel (33/1), Noh (125/1) and Rose (11/1) won at TPC Louisiana; Snedeker (35/1) at Harbour Town and Ben Curtis (150/1), Charley Hoffman (30/1) and Kevin Chappell (33/1) here at TPC San Antonio. As you’d expect a mix of players and circumstances across 3 different courses, but all had at least a top 16 finish in one of their previous 2 outings which differs significantly from the incoming form characteristics if you look purely at the Valero Open winners.

My selections are as follows: