Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Valspar Championship Tips 2025

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With less than 4 weeks to go now until The Masters, the PGA Tour moves to the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. Copperhead is a tough examination which tends to rank as one of the hardest courses outside of the Major Championship venues each year. It’s a decent enough field this year, with the likes of Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth and Copperhead whisperer Sam Burns going for his third Valspar title.

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Course Guide: This tournament is played on the tough Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. As a freshly extended 7,352 yard Par 71, the course is tight off the tee but, unlike other typical Florida courses, the Larry Packard design has tree-lined fairways, plenty of elevation changes -76 feet – and dog-leg holes. Copperhead achieves this fairly unique layout as it contains 4 par-5s and 5 par-3s which is highly unusual for a Par 71 course. The course also features ‘The Snake Pit’ – namely holes 16 to 18 – which adds real bite to the closing stretch, especially on Sunday. The course received a $4.5 million restoration (not renovation) after Jordan Spieth’s win here in 2015, but still very much plays to the same tricky characteristics with a real Carolina course feel to it.

Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, Florida: Designer: Larry Packard, 1971 with Wadsworth renovation 2015. Course Type: Carolina-type, Technical, Medium Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,352 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 9; Number of Sand Bunkers: 74; Acres of Fairway: 25; Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Ryegrass; Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Ryegrass 3.75″; Greens: 5,822 sq.ft average featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass with Poa Trivialis overseed; Tournament Stimp: 12ft.

Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

  • 2024: 71.41 (+0.41), Rank 8 of 51 courses
  • 2023: 71.94 (+0.94), Rank 7 of 49 courses
  • 2022: 70.23 (-0.77), Rank 29 of 50 courses
  • 2021: 70.96 (-0.04), Rank 20 of 51 courses
  • 2019: 71.98 (+0.98), Rank 6 of 49 courses

Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Sawgrass and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

  • Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
  • TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
  • Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
  • PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
  • TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
  • Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
  • Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
  • Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
  • Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
  • Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Overview: The Copperhead course restoration in 2016 hasn’t changed the characteristics of the challenge that players face. New green complexes, which still feature TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis, are slightly larger than original at circa 5,800 sq.ft average. But if turf conditions are firm and wind is a factor, a single-digit score under par is always likely to be a target for victory. In essence the changes have enhanced rather than materially changed the Copperhead test.

Detailed changes for 2025 see the course extended by 12 yards as the par-4 9th hole will play from the 11th tee, so as to bring the fairway bunkers into play. We’ve also seen of late (from 2023 onwards) rough length grow to 4” plus subtle changes around the greens, which have seen the intermediate cut width decreased to 21” from 72” to bring the rough closer to the greens.

Positioned close to the Gulf of Mexico on the west coast of Florida near Tampa, the course is not your typical Florida golf course. Instead many observers, myself included, suggest it’s far more typical of a Carolina set-up with changes of elevation, tree-lined fairways, multiple dog-legs and selected usage of water hazards making it a real gem and a true test of golf. The course features extremely tight fairways in combination with the majority of holes being on the long side. That’s a recipe for a tough golf course and sure enough that is exactly what the field this week will get.

When set up correctly, Copperhead is a fast, tight and relatively long course, where attackable holes are relatively few. This is definitely a tougher test where a mature, major-like, all-round game is required – unless soft and receptive turf conditions as we have seen recently allow for slightly freer scoring conditions.

Worthy of note is that 3 of the last 7 winners here lost strokes off the tee, so top-level drivers of the golf ball may not have an advantage here. In reality it’s a second shot golf course, which undoubtedly favours a left to right fader.

valspar championship tips

Valspar Championship Winners: 2024: Peter Malnati (-12), 2023: Taylor Moore (-10); 2022: Sam Burns (-17); 2021: Sam Burns (-17); 2019: Paul Casey (-8); 2018: Paul Casey (-10); 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14); 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-8); 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10); 2014: John Senden (-7); 2013: Kevin Streelman (-10); 2012: Luke Donald (-13); 2011: Gary Woodland (-15); 2010: Jim Furyk (-13).

  • 2024: Peter Malnati 66-71-68-67 -12/272
  • 2023: Taylor Moore 71-67-69-67 -10/274
  • 2022: Sam Burns 64-67-67-69 -17/267
  • 2021: Sam Burns 67-63-69-68 -17/267
  • 2019: Paul Casey 70-66-68-72 -8/276
  • 2018: Paul Casey 70-68-71-65 -10/274

OWGR of Valspar Championship Winners: 2024: Malnati 184; 2023: T Moore 101; 2022: Burns 17; 2021: Burns 94; 2019: Casey 15; 2018: Casey 17.

Cut Line: 2024: E; 2023: +1; 2022: -3; 2021: -1; 2019: +1; 2018: +3.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2024: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -6; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -12.
  • 2023: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -7; Round 3 -8; Round 4 -10.
  • 2022: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -17.
  • 2021: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -17.
  • 2019: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -6; Round 3 -9; Round 4 -8.

Path to Victory: Below are end of round positions for Valspar Championship winners since 2010:

  • 2024 – Peter Malnati: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2023 – Taylor Moore: Round 1: 32nd, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2022 – Sam Burns: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2021 – Sam Burns: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2019 – Paul Casey: Round 1: 29th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2018 – Paul Casey: Round 1: 8th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 11th.
  • 2017 – Adam Hadwin: Round 1: 12th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2016 – Charl Schwartzel: Round 1: 25th, Round 2: 15th, Round 3: 8th.
  • 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 38th, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 2nd.
  • 2014 – John Senden: Round 1: 45th, Round 2: 35th, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2013 – Kevin Streelman: Round 1: 70th, Round 2: 31st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2012 – Luke Donald: Round 1: 10th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 7th.
  • 2011 – Gary Woodland: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 4th.
  • 2010 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2 2nd, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the Valspar Championship winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament since 2010:

  • 2024 – Peter Malnati: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2023 – Taylor Moore: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2022 – Sam Burns: Round 1: level, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2021 – Sam Burns: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: level.
  • 2019 – Paul Casey: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2018 – Paul Casey: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 5 back.
  • 2017 – Adam Hadwin: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2016 – Charl Schwartzel: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 5 back.
  • 2015 – Jordan Spieth: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 back.
  • 2014 – John Senden: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2013 – Kevin Streelman: Round 1: 8 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: level.
  • 2012 – Luke Donald: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2011 – Gary Woodland: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 back.
  • 2010 – Jim Furyk: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 3 ahead.

Incoming Form of Valspar Championship winners since 2010:

  • Peter Malnati: 68th Players/9th PGA National/MC TPC Scottsdale/14th Pebble Beach.
  • Taylor Moore: 35th TPC Sawgrass/39th Bay Hill/ MC Riviera/14th TPC Scottsdale.
  • Sam Burns: 26th TPC Sawgrass/9th Bay Hill/ MC Riviera/MC TPC Scottsdale.
  • Sam Burns: 4th New Orleans/39th Harbour Town/MC TPC San Antonio/MC TPC Sawgrass.
  • Paul Casey: MC TPC Sawgrass/3rd Mexico/25th Riviera/2nd Pebble Beach.
  • Paul Casey: 12th Mexico/49th Riviera/8th Pebble/9th Abu Dhabi.
  • Adam Hadwin: 34th Riviera/39th Pebble/12th TPC Scottsdale/49th Torrey.
  • Charl Schwartzel: 17th Doral/45th Riviera/1st Tshwane/9th Nedbank.
  • Jordan Spieth: 17th Doral/4th Riviera/7th Pebble/MC Torrey Pines.
  • John Senden: 46th PGA National/18th Riviera/MC Pebble/69th PGA West.
  • Kevin Streelman: MC Puerto/41st PGA National/27th Riviera/40th Pebble.
  • Luke Donald: 6th Doral/56th Riviera/46th Abu Dhabi.
  • Gary Woodland: 6th PGA National/MC Pebble/5th TPC Scottsdale/58th Torrey.
  • Jim Furyk: 37th Doral/35th Pebble/20th Riviera/1st World Challenge.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Top 10 of my published predictor are:- 1) Jacob Bridgeman; 2) Shane Lowry; 3) Sam Burns; 4) Sepp Straka; 5) Christiaan Bezuidenhout; 7) Xander Schauffele; 7) Justin Thomas; 8) Michael Kim; 9) Stephan Jaeger; 10) Brandt Snedeker.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Valspar Championship Winners & Prices: 2024: Malnati 250/1; 2023: T Moore 70/1; 2022: Burns 25/1; 2021: Burns 80/1; 2019: Casey 25/1; 2018: Casey 25/1; 2017: Hadwin 125/1; 2016: Schwartzel 33/1; 2015: Spieth 16/1; 2014: Senden 125/1; 2013: Streelman 200/1; 2012: Donald 11/1; 2011: Woodland 100/1; 2010: Furyk 30/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 90/1; Overall Average: 80/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2024: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 79. Wind ESE 4-8 mph. Friday: Cloudy and rainy. High of 70. Winds SSE at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 73. Winds NW at 14-18 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 76. Winds NE at 14-18 mph and gusts up to 25 mph.
  • 2023: Thursday: High of 76. Wind ESE 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 81. Wind S 14-18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 78. Wind SW 12-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy and breezy. High of 62. Wind NNE 12-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
  • 2022: Thursday: Sunny. High of 76. Wind WNW 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind SW 10-15 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind SW 7-14 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 76. Wind NNW 8-14 mph.
  • 2021: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 86. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 84. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind NNE 4-8 mph. Partly cloudy. High of 84. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
  • 2019: Thursday: Sunny. High of 71. Wind WNW 15-20 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 75. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind E 5-10 mph.
  • 2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 64. Wind NW 15-20 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 66. Wind NNW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 72. Wind SE 5-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 74. Wind SSW 10-15 mph.
  • 2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 75. Wind WNW 8-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 76. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNE 8-15 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 75. Wind WNW 5-10 mph.
  • 2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 84 degrees. Wind SE 10-20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 82 degrees. Wind SE 10-20 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 83 degrees. Wind S-SE 10-20 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with a high of 78 degrees. Wind SW 10-20 mph.
  • 2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. SW wind at 10-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 86. Wind SW at 10-15 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with the temperature reaching 83. Wind SSW at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. WNW wind at 10 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Palm Harbor, Florida is here.

Year-on-year, Tampa Bay has had less rain in the build-up. 21mm (0.8 inches) fell on Sunday, but with no rain forecast for tournament week I’d expect a course that gets firm and fast over the weekend after the wind from Thursday disappears. Indeed that opening day with 25mph gusts from the west / south-west will see watered greens, but from there I’d expect the typical Copperhead firming conditions to prevail. Temperatures will be 17-23 degrees Celsius (63-73 Fahrenheit) across the tournament, so just a little down on 2024.

In summary I’m expecting the Copperhead course to put up plenty of resistance this week, with a windy Thursday and potentially releasing greens on the weekend.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Farmers Insurance Open / Ras Al Khaimah Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Keith Mitchell; 2) Rico Hoey; 3) Sam Stevens; 4) Steven Fisk / Luke List; 6) Aldrich Potgieter; 7) Luke Clanton / Taylor Moore / Danny Walker; 10) Corey Conners / Tommy Fleetwood / Ryan Gerard; 13) Kurt Kitayama / Danny Willett; 15) Adam Scott; 16) Jordan Spieth; 17) Vincent Norrman; 18) Byeong Hun An / Joel Dahmen; 20) Sam Burns; 21) Thomas Detry; 22) Sepp Straka; 23) Joe Highsmith; 24) Quade Cummins; 25) Will Gordon / Max McGreevy.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Tommy Fleetwood; 2) Will Zalatoris; 3) Sepp Straka; 4) Viktor Hovland; 5) Shane Lowry; 6) Justin Thomas; 7) Tom Kim; 8) J.T. Poston; 9) Joel Dahmen / Antoine Rozner; 11) Doug Ghim / Kevin Yu; 13) Henrik Norlander / Greyson Sigg; 15) Joe Highsmith / Jake Knapp; 17) Joseph Bramlett / Thomas Rosenmueller / Karl Vilips; 20) Nicolai Hojgaard; 21) Niklas Norgaard; 22) Jackson Suber; 23) John Pak; 24) Lucas Glover / Michael Kim.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Mac Meissner, 2) Danny Walker; 3) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Michael Kim; 5) Alex Smalley; 6) Kaito Onishi / Matt Wallace; 8) Harry Hall / Kevin Kisner; 10) Mason Anderson; 11) Bud Cauley / Andrew Putnam; 13) Taylor Moore / Adam Scott; 15) Andrew Novak / Justin Thomas; 17) Shane Lowry / Seamus Power; 19) Eric Cole / Lucas Glover / Stephan Jaeger / Matteo Manassero; 23) C.T. Pan / Jordan Spieth; 25) Tommy Fleetwood.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Tommy Fleetwood; 2) Shane Lowry; 3) Danny Walker; 4) Sepp Straka / Justin Thomas; 6) Will Zalatoris; 7) Joel Dahmen; 8) J.T. Poston; 9) Steven Fisk / Kurt Kitayama / Alex Smalley; 12) Lucas Glover / Michael Kim / Tom Kim / Keith Mitchell; 16) Taylor Moore; 17) Rico Hoey; 18) Niklas Norgaard; 19) Greyson Sigg; 20) Ryan Gerard / Joe Highsmith; 22) Corey Conners; 23) Ricky Castillo; 24) Luke Clanton / Doug Ghim / Thomas Rosenmueller / Adam Scott / Jordan Spieth.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Sam Ryder; 2) Nicolas Echavarria; 3) Stephan Jaeger; 4) Zach Johnson; 5) Jake Knapp; 6) Sam Burns; 7) Danny Willett; 8) Takumi Kanaya; 9) Frankie Capan / Nicolai Hojgaard; 11) Harry Hall / Matt Kuchar; 13) Bud Cauley / Thomas Detry / Billy Horschel / Cameron Young; 17) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Davis Riley; 19) Ryan Gerard / Mathieu Pavon / Sahith Theegala / Sami Valimaki; 23) Quade Cummins / Aldrich Potgieter / Brandt Snedeker / Will Zalatoris.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Kieron Van Wyk; 2) Tommy Fleetwood; 3) Sepp Straka; 4) Jake Knapp; 5) Justin Thomas; 6) Shane Lowry; 7) Danny Walker / Will Zalatoris; 9) Luke Clanton / Michael Kim / Taylor Moore / Alex Smalley; 13) Lucas Glover; 14) Sam Ryder; 15) Aldrich Potgieter / Danny Willett; 17) Quade Cummins / Joel Dahmen; 19) Corey Conners / Ryan Gerard / Nicolai Hojgaard / J.T. Poston; 23) Joe Highsmith / Noah Goodwin / Stephan Jaeger.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Valspar Championship winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2024, Peter Malnati (-12). SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 20th, SG Around the Green: 58th, SG Tee to Green: 14th, SG Putting: 3rd.
  • 2023, Taylor Moore (-10). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 40th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 9th.
  • 2022, Sam Burns (-17). SG Off the Tee: 56th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 8th.
  • 2021, Sam Burns (-17). SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 14th, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 3rd.
  • 2019, Paul Casey (-8). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 43rd.
  • 2018, Paul Casey (-10). SG Off the Tee: 50th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 15th.
  • 2017, Adam Hadwin (-14). SG Off the Tee: 47th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 25th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 4th.
  • 2016, Charl Schwartzel (-8). SG Off the Tee: 52nd, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 23rd, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 12th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

  • SG Off the Tee: 29th, SG Approach: 8th, SG Around the Green: 24th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 12th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Valspar Championship winners since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this long, Carolina-type golf course:

  • 2024, Peter Malnati (-12). 292 yards (59th), 51.9% fairways (47th), 65.3% greens in regulation (5th), 68.0 % scrambling (24th), 1.60 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2023, Taylor Moore (-10). 307 yards (10th), 55.8% fairways (32nd), 69.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 77.3 % scrambling (5th), 1.72 putts per GIR (26th).
  • 2022, Sam Burns (-17). 305 yards (18th), 57.7% fairways (38th), 69.4% greens in regulation (13th), 68.2 % scrambling (40th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
  • 2021, Sam Burns (-17). 305 yards (12th), 65.4% fairways (14th), 58.3% greens in regulation (35th), 73.3 % scrambling (30th), 1.57 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2019, Paul Casey (-8). 307 yards (11th), 67.3% fairways (9th), 63.9% greens in regulation (5th), 61.5 % scrambling (47th), 1.65 putts per GIR (5th).
  • 2018, Paul Casey (-10). 302 yards (17th), 46.2% fairways (68th), 61.1% greens in regulation (30th), 82.1 % scrambling (3rd), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th).
  • 2017, Adam Hadwin (-12). 287 yards (37th), 63.5% fairways (27th), 70.8% greens in regulation (5th), 76.2 % scrambling (7th), 1.65 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2016, Charl Schwartzel (-8). 292 yards (30th), 44.2% fairways (65th), 65.3% greens in regulation (10th), 60.0 % scrambling (45th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 24th, Driving Accuracy: 38th, Greens in Regulation: 13th, Scrambling: 25th, Putting Average 6th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Peter Malnati (2024): “This is a great, great, great golf course. Tiny bit off can jump out and bite you a little bit. So I made two sixes in the first five holes and really, I didn’t hit any shots that were that far from what I wanted ’em to be, and then I just felt like I was playing well, so I tried not to worry about the fact that I was over par, like you said, and just went to 6, tried to do my best and made birdie on 6, and obviously made the turn at even and played great on the back nine.

 I think our loyal fans have an idea of what a Florida course is like, and they picture like where we play at PGA National, water down both sides of the fairway, palm trees, that kind of stuff. This course is more like Hilton Head. Like, this course is tree lined, thick rough, so it’s very un-Florida here, but it’s really, really cool. I’m sure guys do hate it, because if you’re not driving it well, or if you’re not sharp in all areas, like the course will beat you up. It’s tough, the greens are small, the greens were firm today, not like crazy, like unholdably firm, but you get some bounce, so if you’re out of position you couldn’t hold ’em. It’s just, I love this kind of course because I think it really distinguishes good ball striking from mediocre ball striking. I think that’s the greatest compliment you can give a golf course.

One shot, for sure, maybe two. It was going pretty hard, but I’m pretty solid from that short range. It feels really good to knock in a putt. I hit it well today and I had, you know, I wasn’t stuffing it in there tight all day, but I had a lot of looks on the back nine, kind of mid-range putts, and sometimes I get some of those to go, and I really hadn’t today. To make that one at the end it felt really, really nice.

Taylor Moore (2023): ” It was 64, 64 inside of 7 feet this week, so that was pretty awesome. I don’t think I’ve ever done anything close to that, so that was really cool. Just a testament to the work I’ve put in with my coach and my team and, yeah, that was pretty sick to see.

Yeah, tee shot on 15, 175-ish, wind down off the left, it was a pretty comfortable 9-iron there. Once it took off, I knew it was going to be on the green. I didn’t know how close it would be. But, yeah, it landed perfect and went to 6, 7 feet there, and I was able to knock that one in.

Yeah, 16 was kind of a bare lie there in the left rough, had some trees overhanging, so I had to keep it low at first, and then really was just trying to get it to land front edge of the green with a little bit of a lower flight. That way, it would kind of run back to that pin if I got it on line. So had a gap, really didn’t have much tree trouble. Yeah, it came off the club good and I knew it was going to be past the front edge once I got clean contact.”

Sam Burns (2022): “On 18 I hit an okay 3-wood, didn’t hit it great. Just it’s just kind of a position shot, just trying to get it in the fairway. Then we had 183. So just trying to hit a 185 7-iron. Got a couple past, but fairly straightforward putt from there. I honestly thought I missed it. It hit something and kind of shot little right halfway. But it caught the right side.”

“It’s only Thursday. I think the golf course, the greens are really receptive with the rain we’ve gotten the last week. Yeah, I think the golf course will continue to firm up after we get some sun and wind and I think it’s going to play really well the next few days.”

Sam Burns (2021): “Well, I think these greens are all Bermuda and that’s what I grew up on. So I’m just comfortable around those. I think just playing on them every day back home, you’re used to seeing grain, you kind of don’t even think about it, but you know it’s there and you’re kind of calculating it in. So I think I just feel comfortable on these greens.

“Well I think the golf course is changing quickly. I think you could see it when we started the back nine, just the greens completely changed, a lot more bounce to them, they quickened up a little bit there, especially when the wind blew a little. So I think just managing the ball around the golf course, putting it in the right spots will be important tomorrow.”

“Yeah, it’s like I said, I think before this moment, before I won, I really thought that I just needed to play so well and I needed to do everything perfect. I couldn’t make a mistake, and that’s just not true. I think for me today I just knew that if I could put the ball in the right spots with the golf course playing difficult that I was putting it well enough that I liked my chances. So I don’t know, I think everybody’s different, but for me it was just managing the golf course, managing my ball around the golf course and putting yourself in the right spots.”

Paul Casey (2019): “It’s a great golf course. I think it’s one of the best we play on Tour. Might be the best one we play on the Florida swing. You know I like it because I’m defending champion. Champions always like the golf courses they win on. But it’s really quality. It’s very tough as well. The difference between hitting the green and landing just short, the dispersion of where the shots finish is high. There’s a premium on ball striking. Scoring’s never that low around here. Bogeys do happen. Disappointing on 9, but everybody’s going to make bogeys. If you can just minimize those, it puts you in a good position. But it’s wonderful playing with world No. 1 the last two days and see the quality of his game and quality of mine was pretty good too.”

“I like slopey greens, these are very, very difficult greens, but that’s the way I kind of like them. It’s why I play well at places like Augusta as well. Johnny hinted that, my caddie’s running off to go watch some golf this afternoon because it’s going to get entertaining because it’s so difficult to figure out where that wind is coming from. Very rarely on this Copperhead Course do you face the same direction twice. So you’re always having to make slight adjustments for the wind and then you can’t quite figure it out. It’s a difficult golf course. The greens are so firm, you can’t get a tee in the ground to repair a ball mark. You need one of those metal pitch mark repairers.”

Paul Casey (2018): “To me it’s one of the best courses on Tour. I think without question one of the best courses on Tour. My caddy, Johnny McClaren won here before with Luke Donald. He thought it would really suit my game. I hit a lot of greens in regulation. We discussed again trying to get the flow of the travel. We thought it fit really nicely in the schedule, everything about it, you know, the people, Copperhead, there’s just a lot of positives to it. It’s actually pretty easy decision, to be honest. Actually questioned why I haven’t played it more in the past because actually I haven’t played it that well. Surprising. I did like it and as soon as I turned up, I had a good feeling anyway and obviously I’ll be back next year but it’s one I probably would have on the schedule forever. I still don’t like 16.”

Adam Hadwin (2017): “Yeah, it was a great day, I played really solid, a lot of fairways, a lot of greens again. Made a couple bombs that probably shouldn’t have gone in, but good speed and was able to pick the right line and just real solid golf tee-to-green. Every time I got off-line, I got myself back in position and when I was able to be aggressive, I was aggressive and hit good shots. Just striking it real solid right now, which is what you need it do around this Copperhead golf course. you get going sideways on this golf course, it’s tough enough that it will punish you and you can run up a tally pretty quickly. But the other side of things is that guys are going to have to shot a good score to catch you.

Charl Schwartzel (2016): “Well, the first time I played, I didn’t play very well. But you know, the more I played it, I felt like it’s a golf course where you need sort of experience to play. You need to learn how to play this golf course. It looks like an easy course, because it’s not very long on distance, but man, the way you’ve got to shape the shots, the way you’ve got to think, the variety of clubs you use, it’s just a really good golf course. You’ve got to really think your way around it, and you very seldom get the guy that plays badly otherwise. You’ve got to bring a good game here to compete.

Well, the Snake Pit is really only 16, if you’re asking me. 16 is a dangerous hole. Whatever makes you feel comfortable off the tee, whether it’s an iron just short in the fairway and a 3-wood, that’s fine. It’s avoiding the water and the trees on the left, really. You can’t bail. You hit left, you make bogey, anyways. You hit it in the water, you’re going to make probably double. So it’s getting it off the tee just in play and if you’re going to play that hole, 2-over for the week, you’re going to be in contention in this tournament. 17 and 18 is not really that difficult of holes. I mean, hitting 6-iron, 7-iron into 17, and 18 is your choice, what you want to do. If you drive it, you’ve got to wedge it. If you hit 2-iron off the tee, you’ve got 8-iron in. To me, those holes are not that dangerous. But 16, be careful. Just get the ball in play.

Jordan Spieth (2015): “This course, it’s a very difficult golf course, it’s definitely tougher than average. If you see guys that come out and play well here, they’re likely to play well on the harder courses and the bigger tournaments just because that kind of course suits their game more, I guess. You have to work the ball both ways here. It requires all sorts of shots, punch shots, launching it in the air and obviously some discipline on the greens.

The greens aren’t very severe here. They’re grainy and certainly they can be very quick in certain places where they can put pins but they’re not going to be greens where you really, really worry too much about your speed control. You can be aggressive putting out here which is nice. But it’s tough. I mean the wind – in the past couple years the wind has picked up. Looks like we may get really lucky this week, these next four days and not have much wind and scores could be lower, especially with the softer conditions than previous years. Yeah, it’s still tough to hit the fairway and the greens, the rough is really sticky and if you’re a foot off the green and it just off the fringe, it’s about as tough as it gets because the rough is not quite high and thick enough to where you just play like a bunker shot and it’s not thin enough to where you can hit a normal chip. You got to almost feel like your way through and try and judge it perfectly.

John Senden: “I think you need to play pretty solid golf to do well around here because it’s narrow in spots, the greens are smaller. You know, it’s a very strategic golf course. I think you see players that say the veteran players that play win around here because it’s not totally a bomber’s golf course. Doral probably is. This place is not. It’s narrow. It’s different. It’s got sort of shorter golf holes than, say, Doral. If you’re smart around here you can actually do really well. If you try to sort of tear it apart by bombing it, it’s much more narrow than probably Doral. Doral visually looks – all you see is the bunkers. Here you see more tree line. Even if you do lay it back a little bit here you can still score well.

Jim Furyk: “I’d say the one thing here, you do get a lot of greens that have quite a bit of pitch and slope to them, especially back to front, and so you have to hit some putts here that feed to the hole. You get a lot of six footers here that are more than a cup of break and you don’t see a lot of that in Florida as well. You get a lot of right edge and left edge, ball out, inside right. Here you have to fit a lot of putts that really feed into the hole and that helps a little bit for getting ready for Augusta.

Kevin Streelman: “Got to put it in the right spots. As we know on this golf course, you’ll make some bogies pretty quickly. It’s clear this is, a lot of players would say, their favourite course in Florida that we play. They love it because of shot playability. You hit everything from 4-iron to driver off the tees, shape them both directions. You have par-5s you can go for and some you lay back. You’ve got par-3s. You have to be so exact where you leave it. There’s no let up out there but it’s very fair at the same time. People say last week maybe pushed the envelope a little bit. This week there’s no pushing the envelope. You got to step up and hit a golf shot. You got to step up on 16 and hit a great drive. There’s little room to bail. You got to man up and hit golf shots out there.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their group and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2024 – Streelman – PM -7/64 200/1.
  • 2023 – Brehm / Jaeger / Schenk – 2AM/1PM -5/66 250/1, 100/1, 125/1.
  • 2022 – Burns / Hadwin / Lipsky / Vegas – 1AM/3PM -7/64 35/1, 66/1, 80/1, 125/1.
  • 2021 – Bradley – AM -7/64 75/1.
  • 2019 – Dahmen / Straka – Both AM -5/66 100/1 & 250/1.
  • 2018 – Conners – AM -4/67 200/1.
  • 2017 – Herman – AM -9/61 125/1.
  • 2016 – Bradley / Duke / Howell III – AM/PM Split -4/67.
  • 2015 – Davis – PM -6/65.
  • 2014 – Chalmers/Every/Perez – 1AM/2PM Split -3/68.
  • 2013 – Stefani – PM -5/66.
  • 2012 – Harrington – AM -10/61.
  • 2011 – Casey – AM -7/64.
  • 2010 – Willis – AM -6/65.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 6 – Justin Thomas.
  • 5 – Jordan Spieth.
  • 4 – Sam Burns, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Camilo Villegas.
  • 3 – Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar, Xander Schauffele, Brandt Snedeker.
  • 2 – Luke Donald, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes, Peter Malnati, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, Sepp Straka.
  • 1 – Rafael Campos, Corey Conners, Chris Gotterup, Adam Hadwin, Nick Hardy, Joe Highsmith, Viktor Hovland, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Patton Kizzire, Luke List, Shane Lowry,  Keith Mitchell, Taylor Moore, C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Davis Riley, Adam Svensson, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland, Kevin Yu, Will Zalatoris.

In the past 14 renewals elite players Jim Furyk (2010), Luke Donald (2012), Jordan Spieth (2015), Charl Schwartzel (2016), Paul Casey (2018 & 2019) and Sam Burns (2022) have all won here at Copperhead at relatively short odds. Furyk (30/1) had won the Chevron Challenge at Sherwood CC in the preceding December and was absolutely focused on winning his first PGA Tour title since 2007. Luke Donald (11/1), on the other hand, fresh from winning the 2011 Race to Dubai and PGA Tour Money List was in a battle with Rory McIlroy over the World Number 1 spot. Copperhead was the perfect course at the perfect time. Jordan Spieth (16/1) in 2015 had unbelievably gone 17 months since his only PGA Tour victory at the 2013 John Deere Classic. He was in decent form and had won the 2014 World Challenge played in Florida the previous November. Charl Schwartzel (30/1) arrived in Tampa after winning in his home country only 4 weeks prior. Always one to follow when in good form, the World Number 32 (at the time) took the opportunity to win his first tournament in the United States since the 2011 Masters.

In Paul Casey, going back to his first win in 2018 (25/1), the World Number 17 (at the time) had not won on the PGA Tour for just under 9 years. His form in to Tampa included top 10s in Abu Dhabi and at Pebble Beach and the previous week in the WGC-Mexico Championship he finished 12th off the back of a fast finishing -5/66 on Sunday at Chapultepec. 2019 saw him win (25/1) with prior year form of 2nd at Pebble Beach and 3rd at the WGC Mexico Championship. From a betting perspective, he had been very popular at The Players Championship last time out when missing the cut.

And in Sam Burns we have a player whose first win in 2021 came when he had just broken into the World’s top 100 players, but in 2022 he ranked 17th in the OWGR. The Florida Swing had seen him finish 9th at Bay Hill and 26th the week before at The Players. That undersells his performance at Sawgrass, where he had been 2nd after 54 holes and played in the Sunday/Monday final group.

From the non-elite (at the point of victory) perspective, in Gary Woodland (2011), Kevin Streelman (2012), John Senden (2014), Adam Hadwin (2017), Sam Burns (2021), Taylor Moore (2023) and Peter Malnati (2024) we have 7 Valspar champions who had between them only 2 PGA Tour victories previously. John Senden had won the 2006 John Deere – 8 years prior to winning here. His price was 125/1. Peter Malnati had won the 2015 Sanderson Farms Championship – 8 years and 4 months prior – his price was 250/1.

Naturally the other 5 winners were all PGA Tour maidens, winning at 100/1 (Woodland), 200/1 (Streelman), 125/1 (Hadwin), 80/1 (Burns) and 70/1 (Moore) respectively. It’s undoubtedly a broad spectrum of winners.

Copperhead, as ever, is likely to offer a very stern test for a stronger than usual field in Tampa this week. So I’m looking for players who are in form with the putter, who are comfortable tough golf course players, and who have shown the ability this season to manage their games and scramble well.

My Final Valpsar Championship Tips Are As Follows:

Will Zalatoris 2pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Of the elites at the top end of the betting market, nobody overly appeals at skinny odds until I get to Will Zalatoris.

Regulars will know I’ve been tracking Zalatoris for a number of months, and I think Will has the game to compete on the Copperhead Course in my opinion. 7 top-9 Major Championship finishes in his last 10 United States-located Major appearances tells us all we need to know about the 28 year-old from San Francisco,  California at a Valspar test which is likely to be stretching.

From a Florida perspective, 10th (2021) and 4th (2024) at Bay Hill work, plus Will also finished 6th and 3rd in 2020 across the Sawgrass Dye Valley and King & Bear courses when the Korn Ferry Tour re-started post-Covid lockdown. I know it’s his course debut, but the likes of Cam Young (2024), Davis Riley (2022) and Viktor Hovland (2021) have gone close across the past 4 years on their course debut.

A Wake Forest University graduate, Zalatoris is also very comfortable in these Southern United States geographic climes and to this point he’s been a positive putter on Bermudagrass greens at places such as TPC Southwind and TPC Sawgrass last week. 3.475 Strokes Gained Putting was good enough for 19th in that nemesis, where he nailed 67% of putts from 5-10 feet. 6th and 13th for Strokes Gained on Approach across Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, where he was in serious contention until a disastrous back-9 on Saturday, the more forgiving off-the-tee confines of the Copperhead course this week will only work in Will’s favour.

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J.T. Poston 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

J.T. Poston loves these Carolina golf course affairs. His maiden PGA Tour win came at the 2019 Wyndham Championship at the Sedgefield Country Club and since then he’s picked up another couple of Tour victories both on the Par 71 formats and the 2022 John Deere Classic (TPC Deere Run) and the 2024 Shriners Open (TPC Summerlin).

Back to the Carolina golf course form line, 6th (2019), 8th (2020), 3rd (2022) and 5th (2024) at Harbour Town, 14th (2017) and 10th (2023) here at Copperhead, plus an additional 7th (2023) at Sedgefield tell you all you need to know about J.T.’s liking for these tree-lined, dog-leg affairs featuring Bermudagrass plus overseeded Poa Trivialis greens.

12th at PGA West and 16th at TPC Scottsdale have been Poston’s best results of 2025, but that’s been down mainly to a recalcitrant putter which has been negative across every single tournament until last week at Sawgrass, where he gained a crushing 5.70 strokes Putting – 7th in the field – on the TifEagle Bermudagrass/Poa Trivialis greens of the Stadium Course.

So that brings hope for Poston supporters on the basis that at Copperhead he’s already ranked 4th and 10th for Approach, plus 12th and 15th for Tee to Green across 2017 and 2023 when contending, plus in general J.T. is in the 25-30% of putters across his whole career at the top level.

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Taylor Moore 1.5pts EW 45/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Double winners here on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook are pretty plentiful. K.J Choi (2002 & 2006), Paul Casey (2018 & 2019) and Sam Burns (2022 & 2023) all have picked up double winner status and their associated cheques! I wouldn’t be surprised to see Taylor Moore added to that list this week, on the basis he loves this place and is rounding into form.

1st (2023) and 12th (2024) when defending here, across our Valspar Championship Strokes Gained rankings Taylor ranks in this field 5th for Approach, 7th for Tee to Green and 9th for Strokes Gained Total. Plus across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers he’s in the top 10 for Off the Tee, top 20 for Tee to Green and the Top 10 for Strokes Gained Current Form.

Positive across all Tee to Green skill sets when 33rd at TPC Sawgrass last week, Moore was 16th and 22nd after 36 and 54 holes respectively around the Stadium Course. For me Copperhead suits far more for a player who is driving the ball very nicely at the moment.

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Stephan Jaeger 1pt EW 55/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

I can remember Stephan Jaeger winning on a similar kind of Strokes Gained Putting-positive test at Memorial Park 51 weeks ago.

The Texas Children’s Houston Open was the tournament and Jaeger scored a -12/268 total to defeat Alejandro Tosti, Thomas Detry, Taylor Moore, Tony Finau and World Number 1 and 3/1 chance Scottie Scheffler. Whereas the likes of Scheffler and Finau dominated the Strokes Gained Tee to Green category, Jaeger gained over 3 strokes Around the Green and 6.4 stokes Putting, shooting level par on the back-9 to gain his maiden PGA Tour victory. Winners here across the past 4 years have gained 9.10 (Burns (2021), 5.16 (Burns 2022), 4.86 (Moore 2023) and 8.31 (Malnati 2024) strokes with the putter respectively, so Stephan’s streaky putting fits the mould perfectly for Copperhead.

With the defence of that Houston Open title next week, Stephan still has business to attend to right now. The 31st March sees the 2025 Masters OWGR top 50 cut-off, with the German currently 44th in those rankings. So a decent week at the Valspar sees Jaeger qualify for The Masters – what a carrot and it’s not as if the 35 year old is playing bad golf.

3rd at the Sony Open and 6th at the Mexico Open already in 2025, Stephan was a career-best 20th at TPC Sawgrass last week. 8th heading into Sunday saw him grouped with Akshay Bhatia and Danny Walker in the 3rd from last group, and across the week Stephan was 11th for Strokes Gained on Approach and 14th for Strokes Gained Putting (4.05) – a tidy combination for this.

Returning to his win at Memorial Park last March, that came on MiniVerde Bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis greens plus Jaeger was the First Round Leader here on his last visit in 2023 – eventually finishing 27th.

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Davis Riley 1pt EW 175/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

Davis Riley loves Bermudagrass and thrives in the Southern United States. Whisper it quietly – he’s also a pretty good closer at this level winning twice in his past 51 PGA Tour stats – Corey Conners and Tommy Fleetwood backers take a deep breath now!

Wins have come at TPC Louisiana (2023) and Colonial (2024) with both courses featuring Bermudagrass. In the case of TPC Louisiana the course features Celebration Bermudagrass fairways and Bermuda Poa Trivialis greens, i.e. very similar to Copperhead this week, whereas Colonial sees TifTuf 419 Bermudagrass from tee-to-green with Bentgrass putting surfaces. Riley also won the 2020 TPC San Antonio Championship – played on the same Oaks Course where they annually play the Valero Texas Open. For reference the Oaks Course features Champion Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis greens.

Other top 10s on the PGA Tour include 8th (2024) at Bay Hill (Florida), 4th (2022) at Colonial (Texas), 9th (2022) at TPC Craig Ranch (Texas), plus 4th (2022) at TPC Louisiana. So you see that Riley contended at the same course prior to winning on them, plus he has additional top 10s across Bermuda (7th 2021), Mexico Open – Vidanta (5th 2022) and the outing before last at the Puerto Rico Open where he finished 6th.

2nd here in 2022 where he lost in a Play-Off to Sam Burns, Riley was also 19th here in 2023 so he has distinct Copperhead form. 48th at PGA National, 6th at Grand Reserve and 38th last week at TPC Sawgrass, I love the University of Alabama graduate’s chances this week.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:55GMT 17.3.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.