Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Volvo China Open Tips 2025

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After a break for what was an enthralling Masters, the DP World Tour concludes its Asian Swing with a pair of events in China, starting with the Volvo China Open this week followed by the Hainan Classic next week.

Historically one of the more established events on the schedule, the pandemic meant that the Volvo China Open was restricted to the Asian and China Tours until it regained co-sanctioned status last year when Adrian Otaegui proved victorious at Hidden Grace Golf Club. A change in venue to Enhance Anting Golf Club in Shanghai adds to the challenge this week in a betting heat that’s heavily skewed towards the visiting DP World Tour players.

Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson heads this week’s betting market at 16/1 with the likes of Jordan Smith, Haotong Li and Keita Nakajima following at prices of between 18/1 to 22/1, with the bulk of the local players available at far longer odds.

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Course Overview. I’m afraid it’s one of those weeks on the DP World Tour where we’re visiting a new course for the first time and have very, very little to work with.

From its tips, this Robert Trent Jones Junior layout can stretch to around 7,300 yards for its par of 71, however it’s listed as 7,168 yards for this event with 3 Par-5s and 4 Par-3s alongside 11 Par-4s.

Trent Jones Junior courses are far more prevalent on the PGA Tour than this side of the Atlantic, however with water in play on a number of holes there’s a hint of Bro Hof Slott about some of the holes here, with that course being another RTJ2 design used at this level for the Nordea Masters between 2010 and 2013. This is much shorter though and certainly more parkland in style, so comparisons are tentative at best.

Measuring 577, 568 and 614 yards for the 3rd, 10th and 18th respectively, the Par-5s will all require a long, accurate drive to allow players to even think about having a crack at the greens. Five sub-400 yard Par-4s will possibly be more pivotal to the outcome of the tournament though, with risk-reward being the order of the day with the penalty for stray drives and approaches often a watery grave.

volvo china open tips

Tournament Stats. Event data comes from the China Open events held at various venues over the years. As noted above, this year’s venue is making its debut so previous results should be considered accordingly: Current Form | Event Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the Shanghai area is here.

Dry, sunny conditions are expected this week in Shanghai with temperatures peaking around 30 Celsius (86 Fahrenheit) before a slightly cooler Sunday is expected. Winds will be light at 5-10mph for the most part.

Incoming Form: Immediate form varies between the Volvo China Open winners since 2010, however each of them had recorded at least one top-10 finish in their previous 10 outings:

  • 2024: Adrian Otaegui: 18/MC/20/56/MC/MC/65/4/24/MC/26/30
  • 2023: Sarit Suwannarut: 45/27/35/MC/MC/9/37/23/76/MC/WD/MC
  • 2021: Jin Zhang: 10/42/51/13/29/57/43/12/57/45/6/MC
  • 2020: Huilin Zhang: 2/18/WD/56/MC/4/1/MC/60/4/60/6
  • 2019: Mikko Korhonen: 3/35/16/57/MC/38/44/31/18/MC/10/30
  • 2018: Alexander Bjork: 52/17/2/MC/MC/6/MC/12/19/MC/39/3
  • 2017: Alex Levy: 63/4/58/25/64/27/MC/57/49/4/34/8
  • 2016: Haotong Li: MC/26/7/41/53/MC/MC/60/35/MC/57/MC
  • 2015: Ashun Wu: 47/MC/MC/11/28/64/14/6/50/14/22/MC
  • 2014: Alex Levy: MC/46/52/47/3/56/MC/67/42/MC/37/20
  • 2013: Brett Rumford: 22/36/3/40/10/MC/MC/22/MC/12/71/MC/1
  • 2012: Branden Grace: 9/14/1/1/MC/47/51/28/35/25/MC/40
  • 2011: Nicolas Colsaerts: MC/MC/MC/8/MC/11/MC/28/5/57/MC/17
  • 2010: YE Yang: 33/29/9/19/46/15/17/3/MC/30/31/8

Event Form. History in this event, regardless of the Tour on which it was being contested, is extremely varied with the positive event history of the likes of Alex Levy and Adrian Otaegui offset by many other of the winners:

  • 2024: Adrian Otaegui: 19/MC/MC/2
  • 2023: Sarit Suwannarut: Debut
  • 2021: Jin Zhang: MC/MC/64/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2020: Huilin Zhang: MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2019: Mikko Korhonen: 47/MC/MC
  • 2018: Alexander Bjork: MC
  • 2017: Alex Levy: 1/3/28
  • 2016: Haotong Li: MC/MC/MC/50/6
  • 2015: Ashun Wu: MC/57/MC/MC/MC/MC/50
  • 2014: Alex Levy: Debut
  • 2013: Brett Rumford: 45/14/11/33/MC/22/29
  • 2012: Branden Grace: 16
  • 2011: Nicolas Colsaerts: 32/MC/8
  • 2010: YE Yang: 43

In terms of anything tangible to form our opinion on this week, there’s very little to go on which is evident from the sparsity of my preamble. Assuming that the course plays to the length detailed on the DP World Tour website, this is likely to be more a case of precision over power as it’s not a long course and the penalty for waywardness in many cases is a water hazard. That said, the short Par-4s and the three Par-5s will encourage those with an aggressive mindset to take a few chances, so with perfect conditions expected I wouldn’t be surprised to see the odd longer hitter string a few birdies together.

My final selections are as follows:

Matthew Jordan 3pts EW 22/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

In a weak event on a new course to all but the local players who may have played the odd round or two here casually, seeing Matthew Jordan break his maiden wouldn’t surprise me one iota.

The Wirral man shouldn’t be pigeon-holed as a links one-trick pony despite finishing 10th at the last two Open Championships, although it’s fair to say that those efforts as well as another top 10 at the last year’s Dunhill Links would suggest that he’s comfortable on that kind of terrain. 2nd at the Nedbank in December hints that he’s just as adept on a parkland style course though and the flat layout here with water and trees in play on various holes, plus the odd bit of wispy fescue for effect, might just appeal to him this week.

After a solid 27th at the Rolex-level Dubai Desert Classic to start his 2025 campaign he missed the next two cuts, however 10th in Qatar, 45th on the PGA Tour in Puerto Rico, 6th in Singapore and 12th last time out in India is strong form in the context of this week’s opponents, plus there have been some eye-catching stats within that sequence too.

In old money, 5th and 1st for Putting Average at the Qatar Masters and Singapore Classic was complimented by 14th and 2nd for GIR in Puerto Rico and India respectively. From a Strokes Gained perspective, the 29 year-old was positive on all categories in Qatar and Singapore whilst missing out on repeating that feat by the narrowest of margins in India with a negative 0.1 SG Putting per round. 6th for both SP Approach and SG Tee to Green that week is perhaps more relevant to this week’s task though.

A missed cut on his China Open debut last year by a single stroke is of little consequence now that we’ve moved to pastures new in my view, instead 38th at the 2019 Hainan Open – where he led to halfway – and 9th at the Foshan Open a week later on the Challenge Tour when co-sanctioned with the China Tour suggests he’s quite capable in this neck of the woods.

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Ewen Ferguson 2pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Just below the favourites, Ewen Ferguson appeals this week having shown progressive form in his March outings where he was amongst the first to celebrate the victories of his friends Calum Hill at the Joburg Open and Richard Mansell a fortnight later in Singapore.

57th and 43rd in those two events meant that the Glaswegian had plenty of time on the Sundays to get himself into prime position on the 18th hole, however 17th at the Indian Open – where he ranked 2nd for SG Off the Tee and 9th for SG Putting – was much more like it, only to lose nearly a stroke per round on Approach, an area where he can typically be far more dependable.

At 2nd on Tour for Driving Accuracy for the season to date, Ferguson has the accuracy to avoid the worst of the trouble here in Shanghai, and although his SG Approach numbers aren’t screaming at us just yet, GIR ranks of 14th, 10th and 9th over those same three events would suggest to me that he’s not far off having it all click into place.

The fact that this will be the 28 year-old’s China Open debut is negated by the change in venue this year, and wider form in China of 15/10/34/17 from his exploits on the Challenge Tour back in 2018 and 2019 offers encouragement that he might hit the ground running here this week.

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Jordan Gumberg 1pt EW 175/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Betfred

In an event that’s plagued with unknowns factors, I’ll keep my team tight this week and complete my trio of selections with Jordan Gumberg.

The American secured a life-changing victory at last year’s SDC Championship, winning on the DP World Tour on what was only his 14th career start at that level, and he’ll be keen to add another title to his CV with this co-sanctioned event presenting another good opportunity.

At 9th on Tour for Driving Accuracy, the Florida native who celebrated his 30th birthday on Monday has the kind of game that I’m looking for this week on a course where keeping out of trouble from off the tee might just pay dividends. Jordan led the field for fairways hit when breaking through in South Africa last March and he’s repeated that feat twice since, first at last year’s BMW International Open and then again more recently at the Singapore Classic last month where he recorded a massive 90.5% driving accuracy statistic.

14th that week in Singapore was Gumberg’s best finish of 2025 and although he missed the cut in India the week after, that form is almost identical to the 17/MC he recorded prior to his victory last year in South Africa on a similar length course to this week’s test.

13th at the 2023 Hainan Open is his only form in China to draw from, however that effort followed a sequence of four straight missed cuts so perhaps he can improve on that this week at healthy each-way price given he’s playing much better golf overall right now.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 17:00BST 14.5.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.