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With the ‘GolfSixes’ this weekend on the European Tour, we’re focussing 100% Stateside this week as the PGA Tour travels to Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship. Back to its true home after a single year sojourn to Eagle Point Golf Club in 2017, the Wells Fargo Championship is always a highlight on the PGA Tour calendar. One of the biggest PGA Tour ‘domestic’ tournaments of the year, the Wells Fargo finds itself in a difficult schedule position these days, so it’s fantastic to see a strong field in North Carolina a week before The Players Championship. A field that boasts Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods says everything about Quail Hollow and the high regard the course is held in.

Course Guide: The Wells Fargo Championship returns to its Quail Hollow spiritual home after the tournament visited Eagle Point 12 months ago. Back then Quail Hollow was being prepped for the 2017 PGA Championship which Justin Thomas won from Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen and Patrick Reed who had each caught and eventually passed 54-hole leader Kevin Kisner – Thomas and the other main PGA Championship contenders all play again this week. After its 2016 Tom Fazio re-design, the basic layout of Quail Hollow has changed from a scoreable Par 72 to a toughened Par 71 format, with the front of the golf course substantially “beefed-up”. Effectively though the course, despite only being built by George Cobb in 1961, is very much a classical golf course which has always received excellent reviews from the world’s best players.

From a detail perspective, it’s important to note that a significant part of the re-design saw the greens changed from MiniVerde Bermudagrass to Champion Bermudagrass. Similar Champion Bermudagrass greens can be found across PGA Tour stop-offs at Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), TPC Southwind (FedEx St Jude Classic), the Country Club of Jackson (Sandersons Farms Championship) and the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail (Barbasol Championship). The 2011 PGA Championship hosted at Atlanta Athletic Cub and won by Keegan Bradley also featured Champion Bermudagrass putting surfaces.

Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina: Designer: George Cobb with 2013 & 2016 Tom Fazio re-design; Course Type: Classical; Par: 71; Length: 7,554 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Fairways 419 Bermudagrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass 3″; Greens: 6,500 sq.ft average featuring Champion Bermudagrass; Tournament Stimp: 12.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.84 (-0.16), Difficulty Rank 25 of 49 courses. 2013: 73.04 (+1.04), Difficulty Rank 10 of 43 courses. 2014: 72.55 (+0.55), Rank 13 of 48 courses. 2015: 71.92 (-0.08), Difficulty Rank of 20 of 52 courses. 2016: 72.95 (+0.95), Rank 9 of 50 courses. 2017: PGA Championship 73.47 (+2.47), Rank 1 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Quail Hollow and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• Quail Hollow: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:30; 325:29; 350:28.

• Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:28; 325:27; 350:25.

• Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 30 yards wide; 275:24; 300:21; 325:26; 350:23.

• Golf Club of Houston: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:31; 325:25; 350:28.

• Bay Hill: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:34; 325:39; 350:30.

• Copperhead: 250 yards from tee: 26 yards wide; 275:21; 300:22; 325:24; 350:20.

• PGA National: 250 yards from tee: 28 yards wide; 275:27; 300:24; 325:27; 350:24.

• Riviera: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26; 325:26; 350:28.

• Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 41 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:34 350:29

• TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:28 350:28

• Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:25 350:23

Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Tom Fazio designs include:

• Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10

• Corales GC – Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship

• Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017

• Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09

Fazio has also had re-design input into:

• Conway Farms GC- BMW Championship 2013, 2015 & 2017.

• Seaside Course at Sea Island – RSM Classic

• Riviera Country Club – Genesis Open 2009 onwards

Course Overview: Quail Hollow is very much a classical golf course with Carolina connotations. When I say Carolina think Pinehurst Number 2, Harbour Town Golf Links, Sedgefield and even the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook which despite being in Florida has the feel of a Carolina golf course – so traditionally tree-lined, with narrow sight lines from the tee and plenty of dog-legs. Quail Hollow will play to 7,554 yards from its tips this week and that’s an incredibly long Par 71. Purely from a PGA Tour perspective, only Bethpage Black (2016 Barclays) and the Blue Course at Congressional (AT&T National 2012-14 & Quicken Loans National 2016) have played anywhere near this length in modern times.

After James Hahn won the 2016 Wells Fargo Championship, Tom Fazio-inspired work started on the course with a 90-day window allowing significant changes to the very start of the front 9. The 1st this week is now a 495 yard dog-leg right par-4, which was previously a sub-420 yard birdie opportunity. The 178 yard par-3 2nd hole is no more (it’s been used to lengthen the 1st) and a new 167 yard par-3, namely the 4th hole, has been built to replace it. As a consequence the 5th has now been shortened from a 570 yard par-5 to a 450 yard par-4. A 100% new green complex has also been built at the 11th and the par-4 has been lengthened by 35 yards, which now plays 462 yards.

Below I’ve listed the par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring splits of Justin Thomas and his 3 nearest pursuers at last summer’s PGA Championship:

• Justin Thomas: +1 (par-3), -2 (par-4), -7 (par-5), total -8/276.

• Francesco Molinari: +2, -1, -7, total -6/278.

• Louis Oosthuizen: +1, +2, -9, total -6/278.

• Patrick Reed: par, +2, -8, total -6/278.

And here’s the breakdown of Wells Fargo Championship winners here since 2014 when the course received its first Tom Fazio re-design and Bermudagrass greens:

• James Hahn: +5 (par-3), -5 (par-4), -9 (par-5), total -9/279.

• Rory McIlroy: +3, -11, -13, total -21/267. (McIlroy won by 7 shots)

• J.B. Holmes: -2, -2, -10, total -14/274.

The key to winning at Quail Hollow has always been to score heavily on the par-5s and play the other holes at around -2 to -4 or slightly better. So to contend this week a player will need to master the 7th, 10th and 15th holes. From the par-5s onwards the course naturally gets tougher. It’s worth pointing out that the course will play slightly shorter than it did for the PGA Championship, with 46 yards having been knocked off the scorecard, so from 7,600 yards Quail Hollow will play 7,554 yards for the Wells Fargo this week.

Winners inc 2017 PGA Championship: 2017: Justin Thomas (-8); 2016: James Hahn (-9); 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21); 2014: J.B. Holmes (-14); 2013: Derek Ernst (-8); 2012: Rickie Fowler (-14); 2011: Lucas Glover (-15); 2010: Rory McIlroy (-15).

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Kevin Streelman, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Trey Mullinax, Brian Harman, Byeong-Hun An, Luke List and Chesson Hadley.

Recent Player Skill Rankings: These rankings are based on a 10-tournament window that stretches back to the Honda Classic / Qatar Open and includes both PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players must have played in a minimum of 2 Tour events to be included and rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Driving Accuracy: 1) Ryan Moore; 2) John Senden; 3) Emiliano Grillo / Kyle Stanley; 5) Keegan Bradley; 6) Chris Stroud; 7) Daniel Berger; 8) Ryan Blaum; 9) Adam Hadwin / Brian Harman; 11) Alex Cejka / Tommy Fleetwood; 13) Jonathan Randolph; 14) Andrew Landry; 15) Kevin Kisner; 16) Vaughn Taylor; 17) Fabian Gomez / Alex Noren / Ted Potter Jnr / Webb Simpson / Kevin Streelman.

• Greens in Regulation: 1) Adam Hadwin; 2) Justin Thomas; 3) Adam Scott; 4) Kyle Stanley; 5) Brian Harman; 6) Tommy Fleetwood / Francesco Molinari; 8) Ryan Moore / Trey Mullinax; 10) Jason Day; 11) Keegan Bradley / Tiger Woods; 13) Tony Finau / Russell Henley; 15) Ross Fisher; 16) Alex Noren / J.T. Poston; 18) Charles Howell III / Adam Schenk; 20) Stewart Cink / Emiliano Grillo.

• Putting Average (Putts per GIR): 1) Phil Mickelson; 2) Patrick Reed; 3) Russell Henley / Alex Noren; 5) Sam Burns / Tiger Woods; 7) Tommy Fleetwood ; 8) Paul Casey; 9) Bob Estes / Webb Simpson; 11) Justin Thomas; 12) Greg Chalmers / Kevin Streelman; 14) Dominic Bozzelli / Brian Harman / Beau Hossler; 17) Emiliano Grillo / Trey Mullinax / Grayson Murray; 20) Byeong-Hun An / Kelly Kraft / Francesco Molinari / Kyle Stanley.

Winners & Prices: 2017: Harman 80/1; 2016: Hahn 500/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy 7/2; 2014: Holmes 66/1; 2013: Ernst 500/1; 2012: Fowler 50/1; 2011: Glover 110/1; 2010: McIlroy 66/1. Average: 172/1. Past 4 Renewals Average: 162/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2017: Played at Eagle Point.

• 2016: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 63. Wind NW at 10-15 with gusts up to 25 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 63 degrees. Wind NW at 15-25 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 78 degrees. Wind WSW at 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85 degrees. Wind W at 10-15 mph.

• 2015: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 79 degrees. Winds variable 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 79 degrees. Winds variable 6-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85 degrees. Winds S/SW 7-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 86 degrees. Winds SW 6-12 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Charlotte, North Carolina, is here. Conditions-wise, we should see a lush course from the start of the tournament as the area received 87mm of rain last week. However one thing that was clear at the August PGA Championship was that the SubAir systems here are mighty effective, so with no rain in the forecast until Saturday night, tournament organisers will be able to make the putting surfaces as fast as they wish – so expect a drying course, especially with temperatures up to 29 degrees Celsius across the opening 3 days. Wind shouldn’t be a huge concern, but a storm front across Saturday evening may see a soft and very long course in play on Sunday.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Justin Thomas and the 3 players who finished T-2nd at the 2017 PGA Championship gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• Justin Thomas (-8). 328 yards (1st), 50.0% fairways (62nd), 62.5% greens in regulation (17th), 42’4″ proximity to hole (29th), 55.6 % scrambling (30th), 1.60 putts per GIR (2nd).

• Francesco Molinari (-6). 301 yards (36th), 71.4% fairways (5th), 63.9% greens in regulation (16th), 39’0″ proximity to hole (6th), 61.5 % scrambling (13th), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th).

• Patrick Reed (-6). 303 yards (30th), 57.1% fairways (47th), 59.7% greens in regulation (30th), proximity to hole 45’6″ (54th), 65.5 % scrambling (7th), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th).

• Louis Oosthuizen (-6). 312 yards (10th), 60.7% fairways (35th), 65.3% greens in regulation (10th), proximity to hole 39’3″ (7th), 64.0 % scrambling (9th), 1.77 putts per GIR (25th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 19th, Driving Accuracy: 37th, Greens in Regulation: 18th, Proximity to Hole: 24th, Scrambling: 15th, Putting Average 11th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how the revised Quail Hollow sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Justin Thomas: “Yesterday I was playing really well, hitting great shots. When you have 4, 5, 6-irons in your hand, you need to be defensive. For the most part, I had some not aggressive but more aggressive than normal lines just because I felt good about my golf swing and what I was doing with my ball. If I have a longer club in my hand, I’m just trying to get it on the green and get out with a par and move on.

Any time you can get softer conditions, the golf course is going to be easier. Doesn’t matter what course it is. I mean, look at years at Augusta, the scores have been really low. I know there’s SubAir and they can get them firmer, but at the end of the day, when there’s no rain and the greens are really firm, it’s really difficult. And when the greens are softer, we’re pretty good at golf. So it’s a lot easier when the ball isn’t going to go as far as when it lands because we feel like we have more control over it. When you get as tough of greens and around the greens as it is out here, softness is going to allow us to hit more greens and get it closer to where we want. I would say that had pretty much all to do with it.“

Jimmy Walker: “We’re used to playing it with rye grass everywhere. It has a potential, with the pure Bermudagrass layout, to play really firm and really fast. That’s when golf gets really hard, when you start losing control of the golf ball. Bermuda rough tends to fly a lot, or it could come out where you get some horrendous lies. Guys are going to have to deal with that: ‘Am I going to get the big jumper?’ Or ‘Will I get the really soft shot that comes out?’ “Even around the greens, Bermuda rough is very hard to chip out of. The greens ought to be fast, and that’s the biggest variable, I would think.

I thought the new holes were great. The 1st has got a beautiful look to it. It’s reminiscent of the original tee shot and it opens up nice down there to the right, and the green, you can see the entire green. I love being able to see kind of where you’re going. All the new green complexes are very nice. They are not too tricky. They have got a lot of flat spots. They have got some movement in them but they have got flat spots where you like to put the pins and there’s plenty of room. Just I thought it looked really good. It’s going to be fun playing with all Bermuda. It will be a completely different test.“

Rory McIlroy: “The changes are good. It definitely makes the start of the golf course more challenging. The first hole, now instead of it being 3 wood and a wedge, it’s a driver and a good mid iron. I think you won’t really see guys getting off to the hot starts that they used to. You see guys maybe, especially those first six holes, you’d see guys 3 or 4 under par. I don’t think that’s going to happen now. And then the rest of the golf course is pretty much the same. Obviously they have lengthened 11 a little bit. But what they have done on 16, 17 and 18 over the years has stayed pretty much the same. I like the changes. I mean, I obviously like the golf course the way it was before. My record around there is pretty good. I fancy my chances around there. But it’s always been, I guess, a modern player’s golf course. You’ve got to, if you can drive it a long way, there’s an advantage there, especially coming in with the driveable par-4, 14th and in; the par-5 15 and the long holes coming in. So yeah, I think people will really enjoy it this year. It’s a great venue for a tournament and it will be a great venue for a Major, as well.“

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 8 Wells Fargo Championship winners:

• 2017 – Brian Harman: Round 1: 31st, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 4th.

• 2016 – James Hahn: Round 1: 17th, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 3rd.

• 2015 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 30th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 1st.

• 2014 – J.B. Holmes: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.

• 2013 – Derek Ernst: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 4th.

• 2012 – Rickie Fowler: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 13th, Round 3: 6th.

• 2011 – Lucas Glover: Round 1: 4th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 3rd.

• 2010 – Rory McIlroy: Round 1: 44th, Round 2: 48th; Round 3: 7th.

Incoming form of winners since 2010:

• Brian Harman: 9th Heritage/MC Houston/13th Bay Hill/MC Copperhead.

• James Hahn: MC New Orleans/MC San Antonio/MC Heritage/MC Houston.

• Rory McIlroy: 8th Sawgrass/1st World MP/4th Augusta/11th Bay Hill.

• J.B. Holmes: 11th New Orleans/18th Heritage/12th Houston/64th San Antonio.

• Derek Ernst: 47th New Orleans/MC San Antonio/MC Louisiana Open/MC Puerto.

• Rickie Fowler: 10th New Orleans/MC Heritage/27th Masters/63rd Houston.

• Lucas Glover: MC Heritage/MC Augusta/MC Houston/20th Copperhead.

• Rory McIlroy: MC Masters/MC Houston/65th Doral/40th PGA National.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 6 – Tiger Woods.

• 4 – Bill Haas, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas.

• 3 – Jason Day, Ernie Els, Geoff Ogilvy.

• 2 – Daniel Berger, Jason Dufner, Matt Every, Rickie Fowler, Fabian Gomez, Russell Henley, Davis Love III, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott, Brandt Snedeker.

• 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Jonas Blixt, Keegan Bradley, Jonathan Byrd, Paul Casey, Austin Cook, Retief Goosen, Adam Hadwin, James Hahn, J.B. Holmes, Mackenzie Hughes, Martin Kaymer, Kevin Kisner, Patton Kizzire, Peter Malnati, Graeme McDowell, Grayson Murray, Sean O’Hair, Rory Sabbatini, Xander Schauffele, Charl Schwartzel, John Senden, Scott Stallings, Robert Streb, Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Hudson Swafford, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Jhonattan Vegas, Johnson Wagner, Nick Watney, Gary Woodland.

Since 2018, the Wells Fargo Championship has held this same schedule slot – 4 weeks after The Masters and 1 week prior to The Players Championship – 4 times in 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2017. Lucas Glover in 2011 had missed the cut at both Augusta and Harbour Town and had a best finish of 20th (at Copperhead) before winning the title at 110/1. Rickie Fowler in 2012 had finished 27th at Augusta, missed the cut at Harbour Town and finished 10th the week before at TPC Louisiana before capturing his maiden PGA Tour title at 50/1 (we were on board that week). 2016 and James Hahn had a season’s-best finish of 17th at TPC Scottsdale before embarking on a journey of 8 straight missed cuts including Harbour Town, TPC San Antonio and TPC Louisiana before capturing this title at a massive 500/1. 12 months ago Brian Harman had finished 13th at Bay Hill, missed the cut at Harbour Town, finished 9th at Harbour Town and was 14th the week before with Johnson Wagner at the Zurich Classic.

It’s difficult to know exactly how the course will play as we see the Wells Fargo Championship played on this revised set-up for the first time. With little wind and a lush course expected, we should see a stretching enough, mid-score (circa -12/-14) kind of test which will be all about making plenty of birdies on the shorter par-4s and the par-5s as bogeys really are unavoidable elsewhere. For me it’s all about powerful, high approach golf at the end of the day, similar to the skill sets required at Augusta. Hardly surprising therefore to see the amazing tournament records of Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson plus other strong classical golf course players like Rickie Fowler, J.B. Holmes, Sean O’Hair and Justin Thomas topping leaderboards.

My selections are as follows: