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Course Guide: It’s an interesting situation this week as the Wells Fargo Championship moves from its Quail Hollow spiritual home to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm.
Now this is a course we have seen on the PGA Tour as recently as 2017 and 2018, when it hosted Tiger Woods Foundation’s Quicken Loans National. Located pretty much opposite its famous neighbour Congressional Country Club, it’s a course with plenty of professional golf tournament history, and when it’s been played on the PGA Tour, has been pretty potent. The course has hosted PGA Tour, Korn Ferry and a Senior Major Championship in the recent past. From 1987 to 2004, plus 2006, this venue hosted the latterly named Booz Allen Classic which was a staple tournament on the PGA Tour. Winners included Lee Janzen (1995), Steve Stricker (1996), Justin Leonard (1997), Stuart Appleby (1998), Rich Beem (1999), Bob Estes (2002), Rory Sabbatini (2003), Adam Scott (2004) and Ben Curtis (2006).
Following the 2006 tournament, TPC Potomac underwent a significant renovation to bring the golf course up to today’s professional standards. Never a particularly easy venue, the layout was extended by circa 200 yards and the course now plays as a Par 70, whilst the small green complexes were converted from Poa Annua to Bentgrass.
TPC Potomac certainly showed its teeth when hosting the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018. Kyle Stanley won at -7/273 when it ranked as the toughest non-Major on the PGA Tour in 2017, and last time out Francesco Molinari won at -21/259, although he did win by the mere matter of 8 shots from Ryan Armour. Rain in the build-up saw the course less fiery, but it still ranked as the 18th most difficult course on Tour.
TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms, Maryland: Designer: Ault, Clark & Sneed 1986 with Hardy & Wenzloff (2007) renovations; Course Type: Technical; Par: 70; Length: 7,160 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-play: 10; Fairways: Independence Bentgrass; Rough: Fescue with Kentucky Bluegrass 3″; Greens: 4,265 sq.ft average featuring A1/A4 Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 12.5ft; Course Scoring Average 2013: 69.84 (-0.16), Difficulty Rank 26 of 49 courses. 2012: 72.11 (+2.11), Difficulty Rank 2 of 29 Korn Ferry courses, 2013: 72.63 (+2.63), Rank 1 of 27 Korn Ferry courses. 2017: 71.46 (+1.76), Difficulty Rank 4 of 50 courses. 2018: 69.89 (-0.11), Difficulty Rank 18 of 51 courses.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Potomac, and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:
- TPC Potomac: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:27; 325:23; 350:27.
- Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
- Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
- Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
- TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
- Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
- PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
- Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
- TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
- Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
- Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
- TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
- Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
- Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Overview: TPC Potomac is a pretty tricky golf course. Winning totals from the last 4 professional tournaments held here read -21/259, -7/273, -8/272 and -7/273. The first of those is Francesco Molinari’s winning total at the 2018 Quicken Loans National, where he beat Ryan Armour by 8 strokes. Armour at -13/267 was only joined by Sung Kang, Tiger Woods, Abraham Ancer and Beau Hossler in terms of double digits under par. Thursday was soft and greens were constantly watered due to 30 degree Celsius heat, otherwise this course has historically turned into a technical test.
Freshly extended since 2018 to a 7,160 yard, Par 70, the looks at the par-5s have been extended in 2022 to 641 yards (2nd Hole) and 591 yards (10th Hole) respectively. This course cannot be overpowered. It’s evident that the Par 70, which continually sped up across the Quicken Loans tournaments, is undoubtedly tough. With only a single reachable par-5 and with 3 of 4 par-3s measuring 190 yards and above, the short holes offer little respite either. Throw in 6 par-4s which measure over 450 yards in length and you can see why this was the venue for the 2010 Constellation Energy Senior Players Championship, won again at a single-digit -7/273.
Green complexes here feature A1/A4 Bentgrass and at an average of only 4,265 sq.ft, they are particularly small. That’s noteworthy as so far in 2022 we have only seen Bentgrass putting surfaces at The Masters. A pair of metronomic fairways and greens in regulation characters in the form of Stanley and Molinari won Quicken Loans titles here, so it will be fascinating to see if that player type continues to prevail here at the Wells Fargo.
Wells Fargo Championship Winners: 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10); 2019: Max Homa (-15); 2018: Jason Day (-12); 2016: James Hahn (-9); 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21); 2014: J.B. Holmes (-14); 2013: Derek Ernst (-8); 2012: Rickie Fowler (-14); 2011: Lucas Glover (-15); 2010: Rory McIlroy (-15).
TPC Potomac Winners: 2018: Francesco Molinari (-21); 2017: Kyle Stanley (-7).
TPC Potomac Cut Line: 2018: +1; 2017: +4.
TPC Potomac Lead Score Progression:
- 2018: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -13; Round 4 -21.
- 2017: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -7; Round 4 -7.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Corey Conners, Joel Dahmen, Russell Henley, Luke List, Russell Knox, Tony Finau, Ryan Armour, Paul Casey, Marc Leishman and Seamus Power.
Wells Fargo Championship Winners & Prices: 2021: McIlroy 18/1; 2019: Homa 500/1; 2018: Day 20/1; 2017: Harman 80/1; 2016: Hahn 500/1; 2015: Rory McIlroy 7/2; 2014: Holmes 66/1; 2013: Ernst 500/1; 2012: Fowler 50/1; 2011: Glover 110/1; 2010: McIlroy 66/1. Past 7 Renewals Average: 170/1 Overall Average: 174/1.
Historical Weather:
- 2018: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 86. Wind WNW 10-15 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny and hot. High of 90. Wind WNW 4-8 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot. High of 93. Wind SW 3-6 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot. High of 96 with heat index of 105. Heat advisory issued from noon-8 p.m. Wind S 4-8 mph.
- 2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high of 90. Wind S 10-20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy with a high of 92. Wind SSW 10-20 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high of 91. Wind SSW 10-18 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 93. Wind WSW 6-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: Latest weather forecast for Bethesda, Maryland, is here.
The weather looks a mixed bag this week just outside of Washington DC. The course looks pristine and there’s been a standard amount of rainfall in the build-up, so I would expect perfect turf conditions unless the heavens open Tuesday night into Wednesday morning – there’s a 50% chance of rain.
Conditions on Thursday look great with 20 degrees Celsius and no significant wind forecast. From there things get interesting with a good chance of significant rain on Friday with no electrical activity. The weekend looks dry, windy and cold though. North-westerly winds up to 25 mph look a feature of both Saturday and Sunday, with accompanying fairly low 12 and 17 degrees Celsius maximums.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Players Championship/MyGolfLife Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Players’ rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Brendan Steele; 2) Keith Mitchell; 3) Seamus Power; 4) Brandon Wu; 5) Kevin Chappell; 6) Anirban Lahiri; 7) Corey Conners; 8) Lucas Glover / Trey Mullinax; 10) Brian Harman; 11) Adam Long / Jhonattan Vegas; 13) Max Homa / Kevin Streelman; 15) Doug Ghim; 16) Tony Finau; 17) Rory McIlroy; 18) Matthew NeSmith; 19) Sergio Garcia / Matt Fitzpatrick; 21) Joseph Bramlett; 22) Sepp Straka; 23) Branden Grace; 24) Abraham Ancer / Ryan Armour.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Paul Casey; 2) Brandon Wu; 3) Corey Conners / Russell Henley / Max Homa; 6) Gary Woodland; 7) Austin Smotherman; 8) Cam Davis; 9) Joel Dahmen / Scott Gutschewski; 11) Stewart Cink / C.T. Pan / Matthias Schwab / Jared Wolfe; 15) Tyrrell Hatton; 16) Doug Ghim; 17) Brian Stuard; 18) Tony Finau / Doc Redman; 20) Keegan Bradley / Kevin Chappell / Sergio Garcia / Nate Lashley; 24) Matt Fitzpatrick / Kurt Kitayama / Martin Laird / David Lipsky / Rory McIlroy / Henrik Norlander.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Mark Hubbard; 2) Keith Mitchell; 3) Matt Jones; 4) Cameron Young; 5) Wesley Bryan / Rory McIlroy; 7) Jonathan Byrd; 8) Aaron Rai; 9) Paul Casey; 10) Matt Kuchar; 11) William McGirt; 12) David Skinns / Sepp Straka; 14) Keegan Bradley / Brett Drewitt / Seung-yul Noh; 17) Matt Fitzpatrick; 18) Andrew Novak; 19) Russell Knox / Patrick Reed / Matthias Schwab / Dylan Wu; 23) Lucas Glover; 24) Brice Garnett; 25) Marc Leishman / Brian Stuard.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Paul Casey; 2) Corey Conners / Keith Mitchell; 4) Rory McIlroy; 5) Doug Ghim / Russell Henley; 7) Keegan Bradley; 8) Sergio Garcia / Lucas Glover / Brendan Steele / Sepp Straka; 12) Matt Fitzpatrick / Mark Hubbard / Gary Woodland; 15) Max Homa / Anirban Lahiri / Aaron Rai; 18) Kevin Chappell; 19) Martin Laird / C.T. Pan / Seamus Power; 22) Matt Jones; 23) Matt Kuchar; 24) Joel Dahmen / Marc Leishman.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Brandon Wu; 2) Paul Casey / Patrick Reed; 4) Morgan Hoffmann; 5) Sepp Straka; 6) Jonathan Byrd; 7) Kevin Chappell; 8) Satoshi Kodaira; 9) Chase Seiffert; 10) Abraham Ancer / Brett Drewitt / Troy Merritt; 13) Ryan Blaum / Matthew Wolff; 15) Callum Tarren; 16) Doc Redman; 17) Matt Kuchar; 18) Sergio Garcia / Brian Harman / Seamus Power; 21) Bill Haas / Keith Mitchell / Martin Trainer; 24) John Huh; 25) Tyrrell Hatton.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) Sepp Straka; 2) Brandon Wu; 3) Kevin Chappell; 4) Corey Conners; 5) Matt Kuchar; 6) Troy Merritt; 7) Paul Casey; 8) Keith Mitchell; 9) Seamus Power / Aaron Rai; 11) Joel Dahmen / Patrick Reed; 13) Ryan Blaum; 14) Brendan Steele; 15) Keegan Bradley / Sergio Garcia / Tyrrell Hatton; 18) Russell Henley / Anirban Lahiri; 20) Adam Long; 21) Jhonattan Vegas; 22) Rory McIlroy; 23) Tony Finau / Max Homa; 25) Cam Davis / Doug Ghim.
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Potomac since 2017 click here.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the winners here at TPC Potomac across 2017 and 2018 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this classical test:
- 2018, Francesco Molinari (-21). 304 yards (32nd), 75.0% fairways (4th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 27’8″ proximity to hole (2nd), 90.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (17th).
- 2017, Kyle Stanley (-7). 304 yards (29th), 71.4% fairways (3rd), 76.4% greens in regulation (1st), 31’10” proximity to hole (6th), 52.9 % scrambling (46th), 1.75 putts per GIR (26th).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 30th, Driving Accuracy: 4th, Greens in Regulation: 1st, Proximity to Hole: 4th, Scrambling: 24th, Putting Average 22nd.
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
- 2018, Francesco Molinari (-21). SG Off the Tee: 7th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 8th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 17th.
- 2017, Kyle Stanley (-7). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 32nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 52nd.
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
- SG Off the Tee: 4th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 20th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 35th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how TPC Potomac sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Francesco Molinari (2018): “Yeah, I really enjoyed it. It’s my first time here, I wasn’t here last year. I remember watching it on TV and thinking it looked like a great course and it is. It’s tough but it’s very fair, so I’m enjoying my time here.
It’s a great course. It’s a tough test, but it challenges every part of your game. You really need to be on the ball to play well here. I think it suits my game now that I’m playing well, I’m hitting fairways, hitting greens. I think one of the keys this week has been not making too many bogeys and be patient and just wait for the opportunities. It’s a great track, yeah.
I think just the putting has been improving from the beginning of the season and I think that’s the biggest key in my game. I’m usually pretty consistent with the long game, so the putting makes a big difference. Yeah, probably takes a little bit of pressure off the long game as well. If you know you have the chance of making a 20-30-footer, you’re not so much under pressure to hit it close.”
Billy Horschel (2018): “This course this year is a lot different than last year. It was really firm and fast last year. Winning score was 7 under par and the lead’s 7 under par now. So I expect that if we don’t get any rain the next few days, the course is going to firm up, greens get firm, get a little bit quicker, but it’s not going to be like last year. So you’re going to have to go out with the mindset that it’s a little bit different course, you can’t be as conservative, you’ve got to still try and make birdies and, like I said, the green speeds aren’t really quick, they’re really a great pace to hole putts, they roll in, you don’t have to worry about three-, four-, five-footers coming back.”
Kyle Stanley (2017): “Yeah it’s really good. One of the more difficult courses I think we have played this year. You have to keep the ball in-front of you, it’s pretty demanding off the tee. If you get a little bit out of position it just creates problems for yourself, so being in the fairway off the tee was something I knew was going to be big this week. And fortunately I drove it pretty well this week.”
David Lingmerth (2017):”Hitting fairways. That’s one of the big keys out here, it’s a course where the rough is very penalising, really gnarly. As fast and firms as these greens are you really have to stay in the fairway to have a chance of making birdies. Obviously coming here having won on the web.com Tour, design-wise the course is the exact same. It seems to suit my eye really well. It’s a course that is visually kind of straight forward. It’s easy to pick targets. It’s just a great golf course. You don’t necessarily have to be too aggressive here. ”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners here at TPC Potomac across 2017 and 2018:
- 2018 – Francesco Molinari: Round 1: 10th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
- 2017 – Kyle Stanley: Round 1: 32nd, Round 2: 23rd, Round 3: 7th.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of the TPC Potomac winners across 2017 and 2018:
- 2018 – Francesco Molinari: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
- 2017 – Kyle Stanley: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 10 back, Round 3: 4 back.
Form of Wells Fargo Championship winners since 2010:
- Rory McIlroy: MC Augusta/28th World MP/MC TPC Sawgrass/10th Bay Hill.
- Max Homa: MC New Orleans/42nd San Antonio/52nd Corales/MC Copperhead.
- Jason Day: 34th New Orleans/20th Augusta/36th World MP/22nd Bay Hill.
- Brian Harman: 14th New Orleans /9th Heritage/MC Houston/13th Bay Hill.
- James Hahn: MC New Orleans/MC San Antonio/MC Heritage/MC Houston.
- Rory McIlroy: 8th Sawgrass/1st World MP/4th Augusta/11th Bay Hill.
- B. Holmes: 11th New Orleans/18th Heritage/12th Houston/64th San Antonio.
- Derek Ernst: 47th New Orleans/MC San Antonio/MC Louisiana Open/MC Puerto.
- Rickie Fowler: 10th New Orleans/MC Heritage/27th Masters/63rd Houston.
- Lucas Glover: MC Heritage/MC Augusta/MC Houston/20th Copperhead.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score at TPC Potomac since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
- 2018 – Landry – AM -7/63 – 125/1.
- 2017 – Lingmerth – PM -5/65.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 8 – Rory McIlroy.
- 5 – Zach Johnson.
- 4 – Jason Day, Webb Simpson.
- 3 – Lucas Glover, Francesco Molinari.
- 2 – Keegan Bradley, Stewart Cink, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, Martin Laird, Marc Leishman, Troy Merritt, Patrick Reed, Jhonattan Vegas.
- 1 – Jonas Blixt, Luke Donald, Tony Finau, Dylan Frittelli, Bill Haas, Jim Herman, Charley Hoffman, Russell Knox, Danny Lee, K.H. Lee, Ben Martin, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Rory Sabbatini, Charl Schwartzel, Kevin Streelman, Michael Thompson, Camilo Villegas, Nick Watney, Matthew Wolff.
TPC Potomac has some hidden course form, as we know that the course has hosted both PGA & Korn Ferry Tour events in recent times. Players in this week’s field with strong results over and above the 2017 and 2018 Quicken Loans Nationals held here are:
- 2013: 2nd Chesson Hadley; 6th Sung Kang; 11th Si Woo Kim.
- 2012: 6th Morgan Hoffmann; 13th Luke List, Brian Stuard.
- 2004: 2nd Charles Howell III, 3rd Rory Sabbatini.
- 2003: 1st Rory Sabbatini.
A handy, full rundown of finishes here at TPC Potomac since 2002 can be found here.
In terms of warm-ups for the PGA Championship in a fortnight, the test this week will be the stiffest since The Masters. TPC Potomac is a tough, testing golf course, where liberties, especially off the tee, cannot be taken. If the forecast winds arrive from Friday onwards, expect a proper grind.
Wells 
