Some events are relatively straightforward to decide on the type of player that fits the bill, whereas others are a minefield and this, for me, falls firmly into the latter category. With winners ranging from the likes of Justin Rose to Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson to Russell Knox, trying to match a type of player to this course is nigh-on impossible. Changing conditions this week with a wet start, turning windy, then becoming dry and calm doesn’t help much either, and when you couple that with the fact that some players have won here on debut, some with a poor record and others with a sparkling course history, picking the bones out of previous results here might also produce a red herring or two.

So where do we start? In the main, the winners here have been Major-class players who have been either finding a lot of greens or putting very well in their most recent outings and everything’s ultimately aligned here to produce the silverware, plus each had recorded a top-12 finish or better in their last 5 starts. However, it’s fair to say that you make a case for most of the players in the top dozen of the betting on that basis, so our shortlist isn’t particularly short using the criteria thus far!

Perhaps the odds of recent winners gives us more of a clue as 5 of the last 8 winners have started in the 20/1 to 28/1 bracket; the short-priced favourites haven’t converted here of late and after a long and hard season perhaps some of the elite are starting to run out of steam as we head towards November. Of those that fit the bill for me, Tommy Fleetwood just misses out despite having taken a much-needed week off after heading straight back to the course after his Le Golf National heroics; his ‘Moliwood’ partner Francesco was also tempting, although he again appeared to be running on empty at Walton Heath and perhaps a more prolonged break is in order.

Weighing it all up, I’m backing just one player near the top of the market and that’s Jon Rahm. I could be pedantic and say that his 11th place finish at East Lake fails the ‘top 10 test’ in his last 2 outings achieved by 7 of the last 8 winners here, however the Spaniard sat 4th heading into the final day on a test that I still think is too alien to his aggressive style to really suit. Regardless, in between times Rahm took the formidable scalp of Tiger Woods in the Ryder Cup singles to undoubtedly inject a huge shot of confidence into his game and if we read between the lines of his last 2 recorded PGA Tour efforts, it’s clear that he’s striking the ball well (5th for GIR at East Lake) and putting well (3rd and 4th for Putting Average on his last 2 starts).

36th here on debut 12 months ago isn’t a major concern as he’d flown directly from Valderrama to compete here; this year he’s understandably rested after his exploits in France which will leave him far fresher. Clearly he enjoys this part of the year – he went on to win in Dubai on his subsequent start to this last year – and a calmer forecast over the weekend should encourage aggressive players like Rahm to make the requisite birdies providing they can stay in touch over the first 2 days. Soft conditions should help in that respect, and with his power the 23 year-old can cut a number of corners here to set up decent scoring opportunities.

As we saw last week with short-priced chances Sergio Garcia and Brooks Koepka getting over the line, building a team that’s too top-heavy could prove to be a mistake as if one of the top players does win then we’re looking at an each-way payout at best to help salvage the week. The likes of Dustin Johnson who’ll be keen to get his OWGR No.1 status back, Justin Rose who’s defending, new number 1 Brooks Koepka who arrives here fresh from his win in Korea and an improving Rory McIlroy could undoubtedly prove victorious here, however for me I’ll take my chances a little further down the list on a trio who’ll be more akin to the European-style conditions here this week.

Although almost the polar opposite in terms of style to Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick has his merits here as finishes of 7th, 16th and 9th from his 3 starts have shown. GIR ranks of 8th and 1st from his first two attempts at playing Sheshan was followed by 3rd for Driving Accuracy 12 months accompanied by some looser iron-play, however there have been signs of late that his overall long game is close back to its best, none more so than when he won at Crans Sur Sierre last month with a field-leading Driving Accuracy performance coupled with 2nd for GIR. When he plays like that it only takes a positive week with the putter for him to contend and 5 European Tour wins altogether now suggests that this can happen with reasonable regularity.

4 of the 24 year-old’s wins have come on bentgrass-based putting surfaces which bodes well for this week and his other success, the DP World Tour Championship in 2016, came in a very strong European Tour field to suggest he’s not afraid to mix it with the elite. Form in and around China has been excellent for Matt with top-23 finishes from each of his 8 career attempts in this neck of the woods, with 3rd at the Hong Kong Open in 2015 rating as his best effort to date. Having missed out on a Ryder Cup spot this time, I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see the Sheffield lad remind everyone once again what a classy player he is before too long, and with his long game in decent shape it could be as early as this week.

Although he’s yet to show his class on the world stage, I suspect it’s only a matter of time before Lucas Bjerregaard starts finding his feet at the Majors and WGCs and this week’s task in a watered-down elite field in European-feeling conditions could well be the starting point for him. At 53rd in the OWGR following a sparkling run of form of late, this will be the Dane’s WGC debut – but as we saw with Russell Knox here in 2015, that’s not necessarily an insurmountable position and I fancy that Lucas will outperform his odds this week.

Bjerregaard’s rise up the world rankings has been fuelled by 6-event form that reads 9/6/2/20/1/9 with that victory coming at the Alfred Dunhill Links and, with the top-50 tantalisingly close, I suspect he’ll be fully focussed for the next 4 weeks so that he can ensure that he’s getting access to the biggest and best events of 2019. When the 27 year-old plays well it typically coincides with a strong week with his approach shots and naturally his GIR over those aforementioned 6 events has been exceptional in the main, however he’s also found some form with the putter and that could prove critical this week. 1st for putts per GIR at the Dunhill Links and 10th on the same count a week later at Walton Heath are impressive for a player like Lucas who tends to rely on a long and strong tee-to-green game and these bentgrass greens will be right up his alley this week – indeed he also topped putting average earlier this year on the new bentgrass greens at Wentworth.

Par-4 and Par-5 scoring has been strong over the recent purple patch of form that the 2-time European Tour winner has found of late, however the final piece of the jigsaw with Lucas may well be his form in the region: he’s missed just one cut in China and Hong Kong over the course of his career, racking up 5 top-6 finishes from 11 starts in total – the most recent of which was at this year’s China Open where his 27 birdies over 4 days led the field by a fair distance. Underestimate this emerging talent at your peril.

Another player making his WGC debut is Matt Wallace and for me he’s another one who shouldn’t be ignored, despite this being an obvious step up in class. Much has been discussed about the Hillingdon man’s 10 victories at all levels from 74 professional starts, with the focus clearly on the fact that they’ve been in relatively small events, however what those victories do point to is the ability to get over a winning line that many professional golfers struggle with and that’s a huge plus in my view. 19th at the US PGA Championship in August was also something of a breakthrough for a player who’d previously missed the cut at his three stabs at a Major, and that will give him the confidence – if he needs any more that is – that he can compete at a higher level, plus this field is nowhere near as competitive in my view.

Like his European Tour colleague Lucas Bjerregaard, Wallace’s stellar season now sees him on the brink of a top-50 position in the OWGR and at 62nd currently he’s also got a huge chance to book himself a ticket to Augusta and beyond over the next 4 weeks. Season wins at the Indian Open, BMW International Open and Made In Denmark backed up the promise that he showed when winning the Open de Portugal last year to leapfrog the Challenge Tour; with over €1.5m banked from his exploits this year to date, he’s in a great place personally and professionally as he seeks to unlock access to the next stage of his career.

Since his most recent win in Denmark, a form line of 51/44/28/16 at European Tour level doesn’t excite massively, however within that there have been sparks of life and he’s led after day 1 on both of his previous two starts at the Dunhill Links and British Masters. Aside from his 3 wins this season, the only other top-10 finish for Matt came at the China Open where he was up with the pace from the outset and co-led going into the final day before Alexander Bjork pulled clear. Save for a 4-over performance on the par-5 4th hole that week over the four days, he’d have had a further victory to his name by now – and in terms of this event one in China to boot – so if he can find a good week with his irons here then I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see him in the mix, despite the jump in class. Having lost good friend Ricki Neil-Jones and his grandmother in the space of the last few days, I expect Matt will want to win something for them very soon.