Last week’s winner David Law, who was a 300/1 chance with some bookies before the Vic Open started, proved once again that immediate form isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to betting on golf as he’d missed the weekend on both of his 2019 starts prior to that outstanding shot on the 72nd hole that set up his first European Tour victory. A promising start for my 250/1 selection Nick Flanagan, who led after day 1 with a sparkling 10-under round of 62, eventually faltered in the wind on Saturday and despite getting him, Paul Dunne and Steven Jeffress through the final cut line to play on Sunday, none of them could push on to produce a return.
After last week’s groundbreaking mixed men’s/women’s event, we’re back in Australia for more quirkiness as strokeplay and match play golf converge in Perth for the third year in succession. As per the last 2 years, for the first three days this week it will be (almost) like nothing has changed since we used to frequent Lake Karinnyup for the Perth International, however at the end of Saturday it starts to become interesting…
The way it works is as follows: the first two days will operate as a normal strokeplay European Tour event with the cut falling at the top 65 professionals and ties. The goal on Saturday though is to get into the top 8 ideally and top 24 at the very least to progress into Sunday. The top 8 players are then seeded into the second round of knockout matches where there’ll meet the winner of the round 1 matches, all of which are played over six holes with a 100 yard ‘knockout hole’ determining the outcome of any tied match. From there we have a straight knockout of the remaining 16 players over the 6 hole matches until we have an eventual winner. For more details on the format click here.
It’s worth noting that there are a couple of ways you can choose to bet on this week’s event: outright winner and 54-hole strokeplay leader. Given that the eventual winner will triumph via the match play format, the bookmakers are paying just 4 places each way outright as per a more conventional match play event. The alternative is to ignore the match play on Sunday and treat the first 3 days as a standalone tournament which is what a handful of bookmakers have done by offering a 54-hole market.
The other nuance to pick out of the outright winner betting market this week is that although most bookies are offering 4 places each-way at 1/4 odds outright, it’s worth noting that Boylesports are offering 4 places at 1/3 odds at the time of writing – if the odds are identical on your selected player then using Boylesports returns a huge 33% more for a place return. Current prices here: Boylesports
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Lake Karinnyup CC. Designer: Alex Russell, 1929; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,143 yards; Water Hazards: 1; Fairways: Santa Anna Hybrid Couch; Rough: Wintergreen Couch / Tall Fescue; Greens: Bentgrass (G6).
Course Overview. This week’s host course Lake Karinnyup is a classical, tree-lined affair just a couple of miles in from the Indian Ocean. The track hosted a number of top-level tournaments prior to the 2012-2018 events, most relevant to us is the 2002 & 2003 Johnnie Walker Classic won by Retief Goosen and Ernie Els respectively. You can find details of those events in our stats section, albeit there are only a few survivors from those older events playing here this week. The 2003 win by The Big Easy holds its own place in European Tour history as the South African’s 29-under total is still the biggest winning score under par in any European Tour event. The course has been remodelled by former European Tour player Mike Clayton since Els’ win; however, with changes predominantly around the greens giving the track a little more protection, it’s safe to say that this is now much more of a challenging proposition.
At 7,143 yards the course isn’t overly long by today’s standards, however with a number of dog-leg holes and the omnipresent breeze coming in off the Ocean, it will force players to use a full array of shots and every club in their bag. If the wind really does blow (as it often does each afternoon in this part of the world) then some holes can play quite long; that, coupled with closer bunkering around the greens and punishing run-off areas for wayward irons, makes this a fair challenge for the top players with a premium on finding the greens in regulation and top-class scrambling when putting surfaces are inevitably missed.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2018: Kiradech Aphibarnrat, 25/1; 2017: Brett Rumford, 50/1; 2016: Louis Oosthuizen, 10/1; 2014: Thorbjorn Olesen, 40/1; 2013: Jin Jeong, 250/1; 2012: Bo Van Pelt, 7/1. The 2017 and 2018 events were in the Super 6 format, all prior years were straight 72-hole strokeplay.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Perth is here. Dry and sunny conditions are expected this week with temperatures reaching the low-70s Fahrenheit each day, however the main feature is likely to be the breeze. 20mph average wind speed on Thursday afternoon will certainly make the players think around these parts and after some brief respite on Friday, there’s scope for 15-20mph winds over the weekend.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
Analysing the final stats of the 5 winners here at Lake Karrinyup (excluding 2017 which weren’t recorded by the European Tour) gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
- 2018: Kiradech Aphibarnrat. 290 yards (32nd), 76.2% fairways (33rd), 66.7% greens in regulation (94th), 1.75 putts per GIR (35th).
- 2016: Louis Oosthuizen (-16). 291.1 yards (21st), 75.0% fairways (15th), 93.1% greens in regulation (1st), 1.75 putts per GIR (27th).
- 2014: Thorbjorn Olesen (-17). 305.9 yards (12th), 53.6% fairways (66th), 76.4% greens in regulation (8th), 1.65 putts per GIR (3rd).
- 2013: Jin Jeong (-10). 251.1 yards (67th), 75.0% fairways (11th), 77.8% greens in regulation (6th), 1.79 putts per GIR (32nd).
- 2012: Bo Van Pelt (-16). 287.3 yards (22nd), 80.4% fairways (3rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (6th), 1.71 putts per GIR (13th).
The problem with comparing Aphibarnrat with the previous winners here is that he triumphed via the match play element having finished in a tie for 17th after 54 holes. 54-hole leader Prom Meesawat (who eventually finished 9th) was 7 strokes ahead of the Thai going into Sunday and his stats were more typical of what you might expect here:
- 2018: Prom Meesawat. 264 yards (124th), 83.3% fairways (8th), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 1.62 putts per GIR (3rd).
With wide fairways averaging 40 yards across, this is a second shot golf course where maximising greens hit – and with that proximity to the hole – tends to determine who plays well in this event. Heavy bunkering and numerous run-off areas around the greens will severely test the short game of those players who can’t find putting surfaces in the requisite number though. The breeze tends to stop the scoring getting out of control and pin positions can be placed in some extremely tricky areas should organisers choose. The greens are top quality and speedy bentgrass which will allow players who can produce a high GIR week to make a fair few birdies, however that’s easier said than done.
Incoming Form: In terms of incoming form, last year’s winner Kiradech Aphibarnrat was in generally good form with 6 top-10 finishes in his last 12 starts, including a win on the ADT and 2nd in Dubai at the Earth Course; Brett Rumford had finished 5th at the Australian PGA Championship before Christmas and 18th on his last start at the Oates Vic Open; Oosthuizen had started 2016 off in positive fashion with a 7th place finish in Qatar and tied 12th the week before in Malaysia; Olesen had finished 7th in Denmark 6 events prior and had shot 64 on his final round of the rain-affected Portugal Masters the week before winning; Joeng had shot 65 and 63 in Tuscany on the Challenge Tour to finish 9th 6 events prior to winning, however other than that hadn’t shown much form at all; Van Pelt had finished 10th over on the PGA Tour Play-Offs on his previous 2 starts and was clearly playing well.
- 2018: Kiradech Aphibarnrat: 15/2/24/6/42/2/10/1/5/22/51/27
- 2017: Brett Rumford: 77/MC/30/MC/MC/MC/22/5/25/MC/MC/18
- 2016: Louis Oosthuizen: 30/12/19/WD/44/37/38/MC/11/7/MC/12
- 2014: Thorbjorn Olesen: MC/MC/MC/64/47/30/7/36/50/32/58/21
- 2013: Jin Jeong: 24/MC/56/MC/16/MC/9/29/MC/MC/56/50
- 2012: Bo Van Pelt: 13/59/24/2/MC/7/8/18/24/26/10/10
Course Form: Other than Brett Rumford in 2017, all other winners had little or no experience of the course before winning the title:
- 2018: Kirdech Aphibarnrat: Debut
- 2017: Brett Rumford: 27/22/36/6/19/7
- 2016: Louis Oosthuizen: Debut
- 2014: Thorbjorn Olesen: Debut
- 2013: Jin Jeong: 45
- 2012: Bo Van Pelt: Debut
For me there are 2 viable ways to progress to the knockout stages, either by playing a conservative, high GIR game or alternatively minimising bogeys with a sublime short game. Either way, once through to Sunday a player will need to be able to make some putts in the extremely short matches in order to progress without giving any holes away sloppily. That may well be the key to finding this week’s winner.
It’s an interesting dilemma as to whether to play the 54-hole or outright market this week and the last 2 events give us a very clear warning. In 2017, Brett Rumford led the field by 5 strokes after 54 holes and although he did go on to win the match play element also, that 3-day form could have been in vain for outright market backers had the Australian bowed out early on Sunday. In stark contrast, last year’s 54-hole leader Prom Meesawat fell at the second hurdle on Sunday whereas Aphibarnat, who survived a play-off to even make the final day after finishing in a tie for 17th after the first 3 days, went on to take the title. Certainly food for thought as to how to play this event from a betting perspective – each for their own and I can see the merits of both options, however I have opted to back just 3 players this week but in both markets to avoid any disappointment and to also give myself the chance of bagging two winners.
My selections are as follows:
Paul Dunne 1pt EW 50/1 Outright with New customers get £25 in free bets: 18+, T&Cs apply* (4 places EW, 1/3 odds)
Paul Dunne 1pt EW 50/1 54 Hole Leader with 
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In terms of the outright market, Belgium’s Thomas Pieters heads the betting this week fuelled largely by his World Cup of Golf victory alongside Thomas Detry back in November, as opposed to any truly sparkling form so far this term. 16th, 29th and 22nd from his 3 Middle East efforts looks consistent on paper, however buried within that is a lot of inconsistency and some sublime play combined with some not so good, plus the odd temper tantrum to boot. In a format such as this where even a handful of bad holes on Sunday can ruin a player’s chances of winning, perhaps that’s not the best of starting points – although he’ll undoubtedly be popular this week. Tom Lewis is marginally behind Pieters in the betting and has been playing some consistently good golf since the end of last summer, however the bookies have marked his card and 16/1 in this format is hardly setting the pulse racing.
Jason Scrivener will be ruing a missed opportunity to break his European Tour duck last week having struggled in the wind on Saturday from the final group, plus he conceded a needless penalty when he picked up his ball marker in error. He has an excellent record on this track though, as does Lucas Herbert who finish 7th in Dubai and opened with a 65 last week before fading – both have their chances however both again are on the short side, as is Justin Harding who’s perhaps playing the best golf of all those mentioned so far. In a quirky format though, backing the short-priced players carries more risk than normal and I’m starting my team with 50/1 shot Paul Dunne for a second consecutive week after an encouraging performance last week in Victoria.
Rounds of 69, 66 and 70 put the Greystones man into a tie for 7th heading into the final day on Sunday at 13th Beach and with an outside chance of taking the title if he could produce the kind of sparkling round that we know he’s capable of. A sluggish 73 with just one birdie was frustrating as by his own admission nothing dropped that day, however there was enough in the rest of his game to suggest that he’s close to some really strong form – 4th for Driving Accuracy heading into Sunday, which has been his Achilles Heel of late, flashes like a beacon and he mentioned on twitter that there were lots of positives to take from the week. 2nd for Scrambling was also encouraging and if that exceptional putter of his catches fire in Perth then the rest of the field need to be vary wary.
The 26 year-old missed the cut here in 2016 when it was a regular 72-hole strokeplay event, however he’d just missed the cut in back-to-back PGA Tour events in Phoenix and Pebble Beach which won’t have helped; 3 years on and with that aforementioned European Tour title under his belt since then, this wide, classical track should be right up his alley given what we’ve seen him do at the likes of Close House and in Morocco on tracks with some parallels. 10th at the World Cup alongside Shane Lowry is more useful experience – his compatriot’s win in Abu Dhabi last month may also act as a motivator – and if anything tangible can be drawn from his Golf Sixes win alongside Gavin Moynihan last year, then there’s another tick that can go in the quirky, match play event box.
Adrian Otaegui 1pt EW 50/1 Outright with £40 welcome bonus*** for new customers, 18+, T&Cs apply (4 EW, 1/4 odds)
Adrian Otaegui 1pt EW 55/1 54 Hole Leader with £40 welcome bonus*** for new customers, 18+, T&Cs apply (6 EW, 1/5 odds)
Although a missed cut has been recorded against the name of Adrian Otaegui last week he, like 40 or so other players, had done enough to make the weekend but wasn’t close enough to the lead to make the second cut going into Sunday. Rounds of 70 and 69 over the first 2 days was driven by 83.3% GIR though, which backed up the improvement we saw in Saudi Arabia where he also hit over 80% of greens in regulation on his way to 24th place overall. Hints of improvement then following a couple of rusty efforts in Abu Dhabi and Dubai which both ended on the Friday evening as the Spaniard looks to get back to the kind of form that saw him finish 3rd at the Turkish Airlines Open and 4th at the DP World Tour Championship at the back end of last season in far, far stronger company.
What excites most about the 26 year-old though is that both of his European Tour wins to date have come in match play events: his maiden success in 2017 came at the Paul Lawrie Match Play, eventually beating Marcel Siem in the final, and he backed that up last year when winning the inaugural Belgian Knockout which was another hybrid format like this week. This is a shorter match play format than either of those events, granted, however Otaegui clearly has a liking for this alternative format of golf and will likely prove to be a formidable opponent on Sunday should he find his way through to the business end of this week’s event
Seenappa Chikkarangappa 0.5pt EW 200/1 Outright with 
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Seenappa Chikkarangappa 0.5pt EW 175/1 54 Hole Leader with £40 welcome bonus*** for new customers, 18+, T&Cs apply (6 EW, 1/5 odds)
The 2017 World Super 6 final was played out between home favourite Brett Rumford and a young and relatively unknown quantity in Thai Phachara Khongwatmai and, if we’re to see something similar this week, then perhaps it will be Seenappa Chikkarangappa who defies the odds and gives himself a chance of this title. A lowly world ranking of 460th shouldn’t put punters off as only 3 of his 12 professional titles on the PGTI have carried World Ranking points and his most recent success last weekend at the Golconda Masters suggests that his game is in decent shape right now. 10 of those wins came early in his career as a real youngster, however at the age of 25 now and having worked through some swing changes that hampered his progress since 2017, his game looks back on track following his success at the Jeev Milkha Singh Invitational in November and of course last week’s effort.
Now you could argue that these events have all been at a lower grade than this week – and although we’re hardly talking a stellar field in Perth this week you’d be right – however 2nd behind Kurt Kitayama at the Mauritius Open in December suggests he can step up to this kind of co-sanctioned level and at the price on offer I’m willing to give him a chance. Chikka produced a solid all-round performance at the Singapore Open in decent enough company prior to his win last week and before that he’d impressed enough on and around the greens to suggest that he’ll enjoy the challenges of Lake Karrinyup – 2nd for scrambling and 1st for putting average in Mauritius are a case in point. Once a ball bay at Eagleton Golf Club in Bengaluru earning a paltry wage, this rising Indian star could well be someone to keep an eye on as he progresses further through the ranks over the coming years.
Watch these tips on YouTube with Steve Bamford: Golf Betting System YouTube Channel
Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:30GMT 11.2.19 but naturally subject to fluctuation.
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