Congratulations if you were on-board Seamus Power at a Monday best price of 22/1 (William Hill) at the Bermuda Championship last week. Seamus jumps into the top 8 on the Team Europe World Points List for the Ryder Cup, plus his jump to 32nd in the OWGR lands him a Masters invite for next April (it’s been such a great narrative this autumn).
This week we head to Mexico and the Riviera Maya to be precise. El Camaleon has featured on the PGA Tour since 2007 and the 2022 renewal yet again sees an impressive enough $7.2 million prize fund, through tournament sponsor World Wide Technology, attracting a strong field. This event has certainly raised itself a notch or three since its move to a standalone date as part of the wraparound season.
In 2022, World Number 2 Scottie Scheffler heads the entry list with Collin Morikawa, three-peat aspiring Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Sepp Straka, Tom Hoge, K.H. Lee, Aaron Wise and Brian Harman all playing in Mexico from within the OWGR top 40.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: El Camaleon at Mayakoba Resort is a 7,000 yard, 36/35 format Par 71 track in Playa del Carmen, Mexico . The course runs through dense tropical jungle, mangrove forests and oceanfront, so players who miss fairways can be in serious trouble.
Green sizes are large at an average of 7,000 sq.ft. The course features some intense bunkering and the green complexes are Sea Isle Paspalum – these are similar to both those played at Grand Reserve Country Club (Puerto Rico Open), Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship) and the Signature Course at Vidanta (Mexico Open). Paspalum green complexes also featured at TPC Kuala Lumpur for the CIMB Classic held between 2013 and 2017.
El Camaleon GC, Playa Del Carmon, Mexico: Designer: Greg Norman, 2006; Course Type: Coastal, Resort; Par: 71; Length: 7,034 yards; Water Hazards: A series of canals run through entire property, bordering the majority of holes; Fairways: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum; Rough: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum, 2″; Greens: 7,000 sq.ft average Sea Isle 1 Paspalum; Stimpmeter: 11ft. Course Scoring Average 2012: 71.65 (+0.65), Difficulty Rank 17 of 49 courses. 2013: 70.02 (-0.98), Difficulty Rank 39 of 43 courses. 2014: 69.95 (-1.05), Difficulty Rank 38 of 52. 2015: 70.02 (-0.98), Difficulty Rank 35 of 50. 2016: 69.61 (-1.39), Difficulty Rank 41 of 50 courses. 2017: 70.32 (-0.67), Difficultly Rank 33 of 51 courses. 2018: 69.25 (-1.75), Difficulty Rank 39 of 49 courses. 2019: 70.09 (-0.91), Difficulty Rank 21 of 41 courses. 2020: 69.77 (-1.23), Difficulty Rank 39 of 51 courses. 2021: 69.10 (1.90), Difficulty Rank 40 of 50 courses.
Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Greg Norman designs include:
Signature Course, Vidanta – 2022 Mexico Open
TPC San Antonio – 2009 – 2022 Valero Texas Open
TPC at Sugarloaf – 1997 – 2008 AT&T Classic
Earth Course – DP World Tour Championship (DP World Tour)
Overview: First things first, El Camaleon will play 17 yards longer in 2022 with a new tee box on the par-5 5th taking the hole up to 571 yards in length. It’s mere detail, but it’s why you read these betting previews!
El Camaleon has been transformed in recent years from a technical scoring course to a set-up where low scoring has become the norm. Maybe this change has been as a result of the move in the PGA Tour schedule from February to November, but in reality this Greg Norman design plays pretty much as easily as conditions dictate.
2013 saw Harris English take advantage of incredibly soft conditions and virtually no rough to shoot a (then) tournament record -21/263 with the course playing an average of 1.5 strokes per round easier than 2012. 2014 saw Charley Hoffman tame a course that played faster and firmer across the opening 36 holes. However wind and rain across Saturday’s play softened the track allowing the Nevada man to shoot an excellent final 36-hole total of -9/133 to win by a single shot from ball-striker Shawn Stefani.
2015 saw G-Mac shoot an impressive 28 birdies (38% Birdie Conversion) on a very soft course. In the process Graeme claimed his first PGA Tour title for over 2 years, beating Jason Bohn and Russell Knox in a playoff. No discernable wind and graduated rough saw Pat Perez take the course apart in 2016 where he equalled English’s tournament best -21/ 263 winning score and beat Gary Woodland by 2 shots and late charging course specialist Russell Knox by 3 shots.
Despite significant wind across the weekend in 2017, Patton Kizzire still defeated Rickie Fowler with a -19/265 total to capture his maiden PGA Tour title. 2018 victor Matt Kuchar took advantage of low winds and fast fairway conditions (greens here are always watered), to shoot a tournament record -22/262. And across 2019, 2020 and 2021 a soft golf course yielded birdies-galore, with -20/264 the winning total for both Todd and Hovland, with the Norwegian then setting a new tournament record of -23/261 last year.
This 36/35 set-up always plays easier on the outward nine which features 2 of the 3 par-5s – indeed the 3rd through to the 8th holes often all play under par. Conversely the closing stretch from the 14th onwards tests the mettle of the leaders come Sunday.
El Camaleon is a short set-up where ball-striking has been critical across November renewals of this tournament. With a predominant northerly breeze and two sets of short par-4s and par-5s in play, El Camaleon never features in the longest driving distance charts. Instead consistent driving and approach play is rewarded with scoring opportunities on green complexes that are soft, slow and ranked amongst the easiest on Tour for Putting Average. The course is within the top 8 for Par Breaker percentage over recent renewals, and with three of the par-3s measuring 116 yards (4th), 151 yards (8th) and 155 yards (15th) respectively, they have been the easiest set of par-3s on Tour for over half a decade. Indeed it’s not often that you see winners like English, McDowell, Perez, Kizzire, Kuchar, Todd and Hovland shoot -9, -5, -4, -4, -4, -7 -2 and -4 respectively across the par-3s on their way to collecting the trophy.
Mayakoba Winners: 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23); 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20); 2019: Brendon Todd (-20); 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22); 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19); 2016: Pat Perez (-21); 2015: Graeme McDowell (-18); 2014: Charley Hoffman (-17); 2013: Harris English (-21); 2012: John Huh (-13); 2011: Johnson Wagner (-17); 2010: Cameron Beckman (-15).
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are:- Viktor Hovland, Brendon Todd, Emiliano Grillo, Tony Finau, Andrew Putnam, Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Harris English, Joel Dahmen and Aaron Wise.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with light showers in the morning. High of 84. Wind ENE 6-12 mph. Due to overnight rains, preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind NW 6-12 mph. Due to overnight rains, preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 84. Wind N 10-15 mph. Preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 82. Wind N 10-15 mph. Preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect.
2020: Thursday: Overcast, with a high of 82. Wind E 8-16 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect. Friday: Scattered showers, with a high of 81. Wind E/SE 7-15 mph. Preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect. Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 82. Wind E/ESE 4-8 mph, with gusts to 10 mph. Sunday: Due to inclement weather, the final round was suspended from 8:44 a.m. until 10:55 a.m. Preferred lies in closely mown areas were in effect. Overcast with a high of 82. Wind S 6-12 mph.
2019: Thursday: Rain and thunderstorms prevented any play. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 82. Wind NNW at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 80. Wind NNW 7-13 mph. Monday: Sunny. High of 72. Wind NNW 5-10 mph.
2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind E 6-12 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 86. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind ENE 7-14 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind E 7-14 mph.
2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with spotty afternoon showers. High of 86. Wind NNW 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 84. Wind NNE 7-14 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Saturday: Due to heavy overnight and morning showers, play did not resume until 1:40 p.m. Sunday: With no re-pairing between rounds, final-round tee times were between 10:40 a.m. and 12:50 p.m. Cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind ENE 7-15 mph, with gusts to 32 mph.
2016: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 85. Wind SNE 8-14 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 86. Wind ESE 10-18 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 86. Wind E 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 86. Wind E 8-14 mph.
2015: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with afternoon showers. High of 86 degrees. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Friday. Mostly cloudy, with a high of 84 degrees. Wind E 8-14 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s. Wind ENE 10-20 mph. Sunday: Cloudy, with heavy rains off and on throughout the day. High of 86 degrees, with ENE wind at 10-15 mph. Due to darkness, round four was suspended for the day at 5:57 p.m. Monday: The final round was again suspended, due to rain, for 15 minutes, from 7:58 a.m. until 8:13 a.m.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Playa Del Carmen, Mexico is here.
We are dealing with the warm, tropical part of Mexico this week, so expect 28-30 degree Celsius conditions across whole tournament. Light breezes across all 4 days should be the green light for a low winning tournament score. Likely rain on Wednesday will soften the course and thunderstorms during play on Thursday loom more than likely. From there it’s a case of ideal conditions with soft, receptive Paspalum greens.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the BMW PGA Championship, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Keith Mitchell; 3) Hayden Buckley; 4) Kevin Yu; 5) K.H. Lee; 6) Collin Morikawa; 7) Patrick Rodgers; 8) Brian Harman; 9) Sebastian Munoz / Justin Rose; 11) Will Gordon; 12) James Hahn / S.H. Kim / Francesco Molinari; 15) Joel Dahmen / Matt Kuchar / Brandon Matthews; 18) Sepp Straka; 19) Tom Hoge; 20) Viktor Hovland; 21) Joseph Bramlett / Dean Burmester / Harrison Endycott / Billy Horschel / Ben Taylor.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Tom Hoge; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Jason Day / Nick Hardy; 5) Matt Kuchar; 6) Francesco Molinari; 7) Brian Harman / Billy Horschel / Davis Riley; 10) Adam Hadwin; 11) K.H. Lee / Sam Ryder; 13) Ben Martin; 14) James Hahn / Mark Hubbard / Andrew Putnam / Sepp Straka; 18) Russell Knox; 19) M.J. Daffue / Lucas Glover; 21) Lee Hodges; 22) Scottie Scheffler; 23) Nick Taylor / Kevin Yu; 25) Will Gordon.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Sebastian Munoz; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Byeong Hun An; 4) Alex Noren / Robby Shelton; 6) Matt Kuchar / Seamus Power / Aaron Wise; 9) K.H. Lee; 10) Ben Griffin; 11) Harris English / Viktor Hovland / Russell Knox; 14) Beau Hossler / Mark Hubbard; 16) Charley Hoffman; 17) Joel Dahmen; 18) Paul Haley II; 19) Andrew Putnam; 20) Brendon Todd; 21) Aaron Baddeley; 22) Matt Wallace / Danny Willett; 24) Scott Piercy; 25) Austin Cook / John Huh / Billy Horschel / Justin Lower / Nick Taylor.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Collin Morikawa; 2) K.H. Lee; 3) Matt Kuchar; 4) Kevin Yu; 5) Tom Hoge; 6) Francesco Molinari; 7) Billy Horschel; 8) Mark Hubbard; 9) Viktor Hovland; 10) Brian Harman/ Sebastian Munoz; 12) Joel Dahmen / Scottie Scheffler; 14) Sepp Straka; 15) Jason Day; 16) Ben Griffin; 17) Will Gordon / Nick Taylor; 19) Joseph Bramlett / Nick Hardy; 21) Byeong Hun An; 22) Hayden Buckley / Russell Knox; 24) Robby Shelton; 25) Paul Haley II / Alex Noren / Adam Svensson.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Taylor Montgomery; 2) Harry Hall; 3) Tom Hoge / S.H. Kim; 5) Aaron Wise; 6) Greyson Sigg; 7) Justin Lower / Danny Willett; 9) Maverick McNealy; 10) Adam Hadwin / Adam Long / Andrew Putnam / Sepp Straka; 14) Sam Ryder; 15) Aaron Baddeley; 16) Billy Horschel; 17) Seamus Power; 18) Brian Harman / Callum Tarren / Brendon Todd; 21) Beau Hossler; 22) Robby Shelton; 23) Harris English; 24) Emiliano Grillo / Mark Hubbard.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Tom Hoge / Taylor Montgomery; 3) Billy Horschel; 4) Viktor Hovland; 5) Brian Harman / Justin Lower; 7) Aaron Baddeley / Matt Kuchar / Francesco Molinari; 10) Andrew Putnam; 11) Thomas Detry / Maverick McNealy / Greyson Sigg; 14) Robby Shelton; 15) K.H. Lee; 16) Hayden Buckley; 17) Adam Hadwin / Mark Hubbard / Seamus Power / Brendon Todd; 21) Will Gordon; 22) Collin Morikawa; 23) Sebastian Munoz / Alex Noren / Patrick Rodgers / Nick Taylor.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Mayakoba winners since 2013 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2021, Viktor Hovland (-23). 298 yards (8th), 73.2% fairways (2nd), 76.4% greens in regulation (5th), 82.4% scrambling (5th), 1.58 putts per GIR (4th).
2020, Viktor Hovland (-20). 300 yards (8th), 64.3% fairways (13th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 45.5% scrambling (70th), 1.62 putts per GIR (10th).
2019, Brendon Todd (-20). 272 yards (79th), 62.5% fairways (25th), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 80.0% scrambling (4th), 1.61 putts per GIR (8th).
2018, Matt Kuchar (-22). 290 yards (28th), 80.4% fairways (3rd), 79.2% greens in regulation (9th), 80.0% scrambling (5th), 1.70 putts per GIR (41st).
2017, Patton Kizzire (-19). 289 yards (21st), 62.5% fairways (52nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (7th), 72.2 % scrambling (13th), 1.61 putts per GIR (4th).
2016, Pat Perez (-21). 292 yards (19th), 64.3% fairways (49th), 76.4% greens in regulation (11th), 76.5 % scrambling (9th), 1.60 putts per GIR (3rd).
2015, Graeme McDowell (-18). 273 yards (56th), 73.2% fairways (16th), 70.8% greens in regulation (30th), 71.4 % scrambling (18th), 1.57 putts per GIR (4th).
2014, Charley Hoffman (-17). 295 yards (5th), 64.3% fairways (36th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 68.8 % scrambling (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (12th).
2013, Harris English (-21). 293 yards (10th), 58.9% fairways (61st), 76.4% greens in regulation (10th), 70.6% scrambling (18th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 26th, Driving Accuracy: 28th, Greens in Regulation: 9th, Scrambling: 19th, Putting Average 10th.
So let’s take a view from players as to how El Camaleon sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Viktor Hovland (2022): “My success here has a lot to do with the green types out here, the Paspalum grass I’ve seemed to putt well at. It’s a bit slower usually than what we see on every other week on Tour and I think that’s helped me just with where I kind of have grown up in Norway. We have flatter and slower greens and that just kind of sets up better for me here this week.
Yeah, I’m hitting it really straight off the tee and was able to set up some really nice birdie looks with some good approaches. It was a little bit difficult early on in the morning because the ball just went so short and I hit a lot of good shots that just ended up 25, 30 feet short, but as soon as it got a little hotter and I was able to adjust a little bit better, I stuck the ball a little bit closer and rolled some nice putts in.
And then just off the tee, there’s a lot of trouble on both sides and being a straight driver and good off the tee, that helps me.”
Viktor Hovland (2020): “Maybe a little bit similar to Puerto Rico. I think it’s obviously it’s hot and it’s humid, not as windy as Puerto Rico. Yeah, it’s a very narrow golf course and greens are soft. I feel like that sets up well for me. If I’m hitting good shots, I can hit the ball close and I’m not going to miss that many fairways.
The Paspalum greens are really slow compared to what we normally play because you really can’t get them any quicker than 10 on the stimpmeter, so your tendency is to overread some putts and hit them a little short. I think you’ve just got to get your mind into just hitting it a little bit firmer and not worry about the putt coming back so much.”
Brendon Todd (2019): “I proved in Bermuda that I can kind of get into that mentality where I can go low again, and I basically started the day and said let’s try and birdie every hole, I know it’s going to be soft and there’s going to be birdies out there. So I was able to pick up a few on the front nine and play well coming in. The fairways are so soft in-places that is they’ve moved a couple of the tees up so we could hit the ball into a spot on the fairway that was a little bit drier. So there was some holes playing a little bit shorter, like five and nine, and I was able to take advantage of a couple of those. But the way I’m playing with my irons in, I felt like the only way I was going to make a bogey was to miss a fairway, lose a golf ball, and that’s what happened. But I’m sure it’s going to happen to most guys this week. I’m just happy I hit some good shots after that and gave myself chances to make birdies coming in.”
Matt Kuchar (2018): “I’m pleased with my game. I felt like I played really well last week in Vegas, but just struggled to get the ball in the hole, struggled to execute on a few occasions. My couple practice rounds Tuesday, Wednesday felt really good, driving the ball well, which is really critical here. If you’re not driving it well, this course is extremely hard. If you’re driving it well, you can make some birdies, which I was able to do today. The rough is penalizing, of course the hazards, the mangroves, the difficult things you can get into are challenging. But if you drive it well, you have some opportunities to make some birdies, and I drove it well and took advantage of the opportunities when I can.”
Patton Kizzire (2017): “I have been playing well recently. I missed a few fairways, but they were controlled misses. For the main, I missed those fairways. I was keeping it on the correct side, trying to give myself angles into the pins. Unfortunately on 18 I thought I hit a good one, but the wind held it in the bunker. I had good misses, that’s the key out here and then taking advantage of the opportunity holes.”
Charley Hoffman: “Usually the last few years I played here it’s been windy, so I’m a little more familiar with the wind than the calm of the first two days, they were very calm and then yesterday, obviously, with the rain and a little bit of wind, and today was, I would say, back to sort of normal weather for here at the golf tournament. To be honest with you, there’s not a ton of leaderboards out there. I knew there was some birdie holes coming in and I wasn’t going to shoot for middle of the greens and let someone else beat me. I wanted to win the golf tournament and I was able to do that.”
Jason Bohn: “I think what I like about this layout, obviously length is always an advantage. But here it’s about positioning yourself in the middle of the fairway or right side of the fairway or trying to attack some of these flags. That’s one of my strengths is just getting the ball in play. If I can get my putter hot, we’ll see what happens.”
John Huh: “Well, I kind of give the example, you know, my ball flies a little higher than a normal player, I mean, average on tour. I proved that that was wrong, but obviously you got to keep your ball on the fairway. If you’re not it’s pretty much you’re in the hazard, so I mean, it’s difficult to play with the wind, but we’re in the PGA Tour, highest on the tour, and I don’t think there is any issue playing this golf course because of the wind. If it blows more than 30 miles, yeah, it is difficult. But if it is just a normal wind, you know, the players are capable to shoot low score.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners at Mayakoba since 2011:
2015 – Baddeley, Fathauer, Leonard, Stefani – All AM wave -6/65.
2014 – Berger, Finau, Garrigus, MacKenzie, Swafford, Wheatcroft – All AM Wave -6/65.
2013 – Karlsson – PM Wave -8/63.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
3 – Viktor Hovland.
2 – Ryan Moore.
1 – Ryan Brehm, Joel Dahmen, Harris English, Tony Finau, Charley Hoffman, John Huh, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Chad Ramey, Brendon Todd.
Since the change to a November slot in the PGA Tour calendar, soft conditions have been the norm here at El Camaleon. In 2013 Harris English and 2014 Charley Hoffman (in the final round) overpowered the course. However stronger winds in 2015 with similar soft conditions allowed wind specialists Russell Knox and Graeme McDowell the freedom to compete with the longer hitters, as well as Jason Bohn who was a 25/1 shot pre-event. 2016 saw Pat Perez, in only his 3rd appearance coming off a 5-month break for a shoulder injury, pocket only his 2nd PGA Tour win of a long career, defeating 54-hole leader Gary Woodland in a tournament blessed by tranquil conditions and a little cut in the turf.
2017 saw Patton Kizzire, who was on one of his hot streaks, take his maiden PGA Tour title, and 2018 saw Matt Kuchar – who ranked 3rd in the embryonic PGA Tour statistics for Ball Striking – take his first PGA Tour title for 4 and a half years here with a tournament record. 2019 saw Brendon Todd win back-to-back at coastal courses, namely the Bermuda Championship and here in Mexico. In Bermuda he had ranked 6th for Total Accuracy and 3rd for Putting Average (Putts per GIR).
Then we started the Viktor Hovland at Mayakoba era, which sees him going for a hat-trick of wins this week. 2020 saw him capture his 2nd PGA Tour title of the year here at 22/1, in doing so landing a Paspalum green double after he had won the Puerto Rico Open in February. Viktor had ranked 4th for Ball Striking on his previous outing in Houston. 2021 saw him defend his title at 18/1, with incoming form of 18/44/49/5, but noticeably Viktor had ranked 3rd for Strokes Gained Putting when finishing 18th at the CJ Cup a fortnight earlier.
My selections are as follows:
Billy Horschel 2.5pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power
I will take Billy Horschel off the top for the 2022 WWTC at Mayakoba. Sub-20/1 this week, my summary would be that Scheffler seems exhausted, Finau has been inactive, Morikawa is out of sorts with the putter and Hovland will be under constant pressure whilst attempting to notch a 3-peat of Mayakoba victories. A feat not easily done. That leaves us with Horschel or Aaron Wise. The latter has his merits and has played some nice golf since June, but it’s worth remembering that he only has a single PGA Tour win – in 2019 – and this is his 122nd Tour start. Wise seems short to me.
So I’ll take the World Number 16 Horschel, who has won 7 times on the PGA Tour and took the stellar BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, just 13 months ago. The Memorial Tournament victor back in June, “Billy-Ho” has had a great 2022, lifting himself to the fringes of the World’s top 10 players, whilst also representing Team USA in the President’s Cup for the very first time. At 35 years of age, the Floridian seems to be reaching the peak of his powers but has never played in a Ryder Cup, so a win this week at a plotters setup that’s ideal for him would be a huge boost as we head into 2023. And that seems plausible especially when you note that 5 of his 7 career main Tour stroke play wins have come off previous top-11 finishes. 9th when defending the BMW PGA at Wentworth, 10th at the Alfred Dunhill Links at St Andrews, the last time we saw Horschel he was 7th at the CJ Cup, where he fired a Sunday 66 which was T3 best round of the day.
6 paycheques here in 7 appearances, El Camaleon has always been a staple for Billy. 13th here on tournament debut way back in 2011, Horschel was 5th heading into the weekend, when he was only making his 4th start in his rookie season. 30th (2012), 21st (2018), 8th (2019) and 5th (2020) since then, Horschel was also 5th after 36 holes here 12 months ago before dropping back to a 33rd place finish. That performance came after a month of inactivity, and was Billy’s PGA Tour seasonal opener – he was focusing on the DP World Tour post Tour Championship. 12 months on and I love the University of Florida graduate’s chances this week. RESULT: T56
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In this field across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker, Tom Hoge sits tied first with Taylor Montgomery for Strokes Gained Current Form, so I’m happy to take him here at El Camaleon. 13th last time out at the CJ Cup played at Congaree Golf Club which is ultimately way too long for Hoge, he was a feature throughout and that marked my card for the WWTC at Mayakoba, which is played at a short, coastal course that’s perfect for the World Number 33.
An eventual 10th in the FedEx Cup last season, his first PGA Tour win in February came on the West Coast Swing at the short, coastal, Pebble Beach which of course also takes in two other short set-ups in the form of Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula. Tom’s other coastal form on the PGA Tour is also eye-catching. 3rd (2018) at Waialae Country Club, 5th (2020) at Torrey Pines, 10th (2017) at Grand Reserve Country Club, 4th (2021) at Liberty National, plus 9th (2015) and 4th (2021) at Sea Island, Tom likes coastal assignments and is undoubtedly short course positive.
From 7 appearances here at El Camaleon, he’s made the cut 6 times and finished 3rd here in 2020. That year is interesting as he entered Sunday 2nd, 2 shots back of leader Emiliano Grillo. He went on to shoot a final round 69 to finish 2 shots back of Viktor Hovland, who took his first Mayakoba title. 23 months down the line and 111 spots better off in the OWGR, I think the 33 year-old is far more comfortable to mix it on a Sunday in a field of this relatively limited depth. RESULT: MC
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Emiliano Grillo is upwardly mobile again and a course like El Camaleon is right in his wheelhouse. Down to 151st place in the OWGR as recently as the John Deere Classic, July onwards has seen him finish 2nd at TPC Deere Run, 2nd at TPC Twin Cities, 5th at the CC of Jackson and 4th at Narashino, taking the Argentine back up to 76th in the World. With 3 PGA Tour starts left in 2022 including here at Mayakoba, the Houston Open and the RSM Classic, you can be assured the 30 year-old, who resides in Bradenton, Florida, will be pushing hard for more contending performances.
Ranking 41st for Driving Accuracy, 6th for Total Driving, 48th for Greens in Regulation and 17th for Ball Striking last season on the PGA Tour, El Camaleon is the perfect kind of test for Grillo. Soft turf conditions, allied to hot and humid temperatures, are a positive for Emiliano who also has a decent record on Paspalum greens. 2nd (2015), 3rd (2020) and 11th (2021) at the Puerto Rico Open, Grillo also finished 6th (2021) at the Corales Championship and his record here is super consistent. 10th (2016), 9th (2017), 15th (2018) and 8th (2020) from 6 appearances with only a single missed cut, 2 years ago he led after 36 and 54 holes here in Riviera Maya and it’s been interesting to see him play far better when in contention on Sunday of late. Indeed within his last 10 appearances in terms of Sunday performances, he has started 2nd / finished 2nd, started 2nd / finished 2nd and started 8th / finished 5th across the John Deere Classic, 3M Open and Sanderson Farms Championship respectively. RESULT: T42
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Cameron Champ is one that I’m drawn to on the basis that he is both streaky and knows how to win. In to the early outings of his fifth season on the PGA Tour, he has 3 wins behind him already at the 2018 Sanderson Farms Championship, 2019 Safeway Open, and the 2021 3M Open. That’s 2 wins already in the “Fall” part of the PGA Tour season. His streakiness is also interesting. 4 career wins in 125 events have come off previous finishes of 8th, 25th, 28th and 11th. Champ arrives here in Mexico off of a confidence boosting 8th at the ZOZO hosted at Narashino, Japan, where he ranked top 20 for both Greens in Regulation and All-Round traditional statistics.
Champ also has an interesting background both here at El Camaleon and across recent appearances in Mexico on Paspalum greens. I can remember him finishing 10th here at the 2018 Mayakoba, where a 68-62 opening had him in 2nd place going into the weekend. 33rd here a year later is hardly a disgrace and with a lack of Strokes Gained data captured here at El Camaleon, I’m fascinated to see that Cameron ranked 5th and 4th for Total Driving plus 2nd and 5th for Ball Striking across 2018 and 2019 respectively. 6th at this year’s Mexico Open, played in May at the Greg Norman-designed Signature Course at Vidanta, also adds substance to the narrative that Champ likes Norman coastal located designs and gets on well with slow Paspalum green surfaces. RESULT: MC
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