The PGA Tour Fall Series is back this week and we move to Mexico. This time of year usually sees a trip to El Camaleon in Riviera Maya, but with that course deciding to take the LIV route, the World Wide Technology Championship has moved to a new venue for 2023, El Cardonal GC at Diamante, located on the Pacific coast in the fashionable Cano resort. It’s also Tiger Woods’ first golf course design – you’ll be reading and hearing that all week!
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Course Guide: Previous host course El Camaleon was a short, flat, coastal affair on the Caribbean Sea where accuracy counted. This week the WWT Championship moves to Baja California, which is effectively the Mexican controlled ‘Lower California’, and the fashionable resort of Cabo San Lucas. El Cardonal Golf Course is an altogether different course set in desert conditions, overlooking the Pacific Ocean.
El Cardonal at Diamante, Los Cabos, Mexico: Designer: Tiger Woods 2014; Course Type: Desert, Coastal, Resort, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,452 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 1; Acres of Fairway: 97; Fairways: Platinum Paspalum; Rough: None; Greens: 8,300 sq.ft average featuring Platinum Paspalum; Tournament Stimp: 11ft.
Course Overview: First thing to point out is that this is the first time that a PGA Tour event will be held on a Tiger Woods design. Irrelevant I know, but I thought I’d get it in there. El Cardonal opened in 2014. This course is part of the successful Diamante Resort and that’s worthy of note – whatever you read, it’s effectively designed for the amateur golfer market.
The raw course numbers are also interesting. On the scorecard it’s a 7,452 yard, par 72. It’s the typical par 72 format so features 4 par-3s and 4 par-5s. The course is also within a stone’s throw of the Pacific coastline, so as it’s pretty much at sea-level will play all of that yardage.
The intrigue continues further as despite having panoramic views of the sea, the course is set in desert terrain featuring cacti, palo verde trees, scrubby desert flora and encroaching desert arroyos. Those arroyos also effectively form the off fairway hazards as this course features short fairway all the way. There’s no rough and errant tee shots in many cases will find a sandy or rocky location. Fairways described as 60 yards wide in landing areas though are generous in the extreme, with only the Plantation Course at Kapalua featuring such wide landing areas. In reality though, there are few forced carries with arroyos flanking holes rather than cutting across them in the main.
That link to Kapalua also holds further water as this El Cardonal layout is set on land which drops 240 feet along the mile-long stretch from the 17th tee to the 3rd fairway. There are undulations aplenty and this terrain will prove demanding for both players and caddies. Flat holes are few and far between with ascending (par-5 14th climbs the most at 80 feet) and descending (par-5 6th falls the most at 70 feet) holes the norm.
Greens are huge which at 8,300 sq.ft. are some of the largest on the PGA Tour and tend to be canted diagonally. They look pretty flat. The course is also bedecked in Platinum Paspalum from tee to fairway to green. A fascinating aspect for me will be how firm the course will play because this Baja area only receives 6 inches of rain per year.
WWT Championship Winners: 2022: Russell Henley (-23); 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23); 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20); 2019: Brendon Todd (-20); 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22); 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19); 2016: Pat Perez (-21); 2015: Graeme McDowell (-18); 2014: Charley Hoffman (-17); 2013: Harris English (-21); 2012: John Huh (-13); 2011: Johnson Wagner (-17); 2010: Cameron Beckman (-15).
2022: Russell Henley 63-63-65-70 -23/261
2021: Viktor Hovland 67-65-62-67 -23/261
2020: Viktor Hovland 67-69-63-65 -20/264
2019: Brendon Todd 63-68-65-68 -20/264
2018: Matt Kuchar 64-64-65-69 -22/262
Path to Victory: Below are the end-of-round positions for the winners of the WWT Championship since 2018:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the WWT Championship winners since 2018 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Luke List, Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Cameron Champ, Kevin Yu, Keith Mitchell, Akshay Bhatia, Emiliano Grillo, Adam Long and Sam Ryder.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Los Cabos, Mexico is here. There has been plenty of precipitation in the build-up to the tournament with 84mm across the past week. Baja in general – it’s a desert climate – has little rain, and expect the course to have dried up significantly, especially with the Paspalum playing surface. So I would not expect the course to be firm in anyway. Temperatures will be between 27-28 degrees Celsius, – 83-85 Fahrenheit – which will be perfect. Wind looks light all week, so expect nice, low scoring.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Omega European Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Adam Svensson; 2) M.J. Daffue; 3) Luke List; 4) Stephan Jaeger; 5) Ludvig Aberg; 6) Thomas Detry; 7) Mark Hubbard / Troy Merritt; 9) Brent Grant; 10) Davis Thompson; 11) Justin Suh; 12) Cameron Champ; 13) Tyler Duncan; 14) Akshay Bhatia / Trevor Cone / Carson Young; 17) Doug Ghim / Taylor Pendrith / Chad Ramey; 20) Erik van Rooyen; 21) Matti Schmid; 22) Davis Riley / Callum Tarren; 24) Ryan Moore; 25) Peter Kuest / Isaiah Salinda.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Camilo Villegas; 2) Michael Kim; 3) Erik van Rooyen; 4) Chesson Hadley; 5) J.J. Spaun; 6) Russell Knox; 7) Ludvig Aberg; 8) Kelly Kraft / Sahith Theegala; 10) Callum Tarren; 11) Taylor Pendrith; 12) Andrew Putnam; 13) Justin Lower; 14) Davis Thompson; 15) Mark Hubbard / Ryan Moore / Isaiah Salinda; 18) Sam Ryder; 19) Matti Schmid; 20) Stephan Jaeger; 21) Ben Griffin; 22) Matt Kuchar / Justin Suh; 24) Marty Dou / Kevin Roy.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Sahith Theegala; 2) Isaiah Salinda; 3) Luke List; 4) Stewart Cink / J.J. Spaun; 6) Harrison Endycott / Beau Hossler/ Troy Merritt; 9) Ludvig Aberg; 10) Taylor Montgomery; 11) Brice Garnett / Sam Ryder; 13) Matt Kuchar; 14) Augusto Nunez / C.T. Pan; 16) Matthias Schwab; 17) Tyler Duncan; 18) Adam Long; 19) Michael Kim; 20) Brandon Wu; 21) K.H. Lee / Kyle Westmoreland; 23) Akshay Bhatia / Henrik Norlander; 25) Stephan Jaeger / Greyson Sigg / Adam Svensson.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Sahith Theegala; 2) Ludvig Aberg; 3) J.J. Spaun; 4) Isaiah Salinda; 5) Stephan Jaeger; 6) Luke List; 7) Mark Hubbard / Callum Tarren; 9) Davis Thompson; 10) Taylor Pendrith / Erik van Rooyen; 12) Tyler Duncan / Kelly Kraft / Adam Svensson; 15) Cameron Champ; 16) Akshay Bhatia / Harrison Endycott; 18) Matt Kuchar; 19) Beau Hossler / Sam Ryder; 21) Thomas Detry / Vince Whaley; 23) Doug Ghim / Michael Kim / Troy Merritt / Ryan Moore.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Sahith Theegala; 2) Michael Kim; 3) Lanto Griffin; 4) Harry Hall; 5) Ben Martin; 6) Lucas Herbert; 7) C.T. Pan; 8) Scott Harrington / Isaiah Salinda; 10) Matt Kuchar; 11) Henrik Norlander / Adam Svensson; 13) Vince Whaley / Brandt Snedeker; 15) Chesson Hadley; 16) Austin Cook; 17) Beau Hossler / Richy Werenski; 19) Thomas Detry; 20) Will Gordon; 21) Ben Griffin; 22) Jimmy Walker; 23) Ryan Brehm / Peter Malnati; 25) Ryan Palmer / Ben Taylor.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Ryo Ishikawa; 2) Ludvig Aberg / Isaiah Salinda; 4) Sahith Theegala; 5) Matt Kuchar; 6) Luke List; 7) Beau Hossler; 8) Erik van Rooyen; 9) Kelly Kraft / J.J. Spaun; 11) Vince Whaley; 12) Adam Svensson; 13) Callum Tarren; 14) Mark Hubbard / Chad Ramey / Davis Thompson; 17) Michael Kim; 18) Lanto Griffin; 19) Justin Suh; 20) Stephan Jaeger; 21) Thomas Detry; 22) Ryan Moore; 23) Akshay Bhatia / Chesson Hadley; 25) Sam Ryder.
Incoming Form of WWT Championship winners since 2013:
Russell Henley: 45th CJ Cup/MC Sanderson/35th BMW/ MC St Jude.
Viktor Hovland: 18th CJ Cup/44th Shriners/49th BMW PGA/5th Tour.
Viktor Hovland: 15th Houston/47th ZOZO/12th CJ Cup/13th US Open.
2015 – Baddeley, Fathauer, Leonard, Stefani – All AM wave -6/65.
2014 – Berger, Finau, Garrigus, MacKenzie, Swafford, Wheatcroft – All AM Wave -6/65.
2013 – Karlsson – PM Wave -8/63.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
2 – Ryan Moore.
1 – Ryan Brehm, Nico Echavarria, Brice Garnett, Brian Gay, Chesson Hadley, Charley Hoffman, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Chad Ramey.
With so many unknowns it will be a limited line-up for me this week. There’s plenty of guesswork around this new El Cardonal at Diamante layout, which replaces El Camaleon, and it has to be said that the quality of field this week – like most Fall Series events in 2023 – is a step or two down on what we have seen over recent years.
Ludvig Aberg is the first in my Mexican squad this week. At 99th in the FedExCup Fall Series rankings, he still needs results to gain access to early 2024 Signature events. He’s also ranked 58th in the Official Golf World Rankings (OWGR), so there’s plenty still to play for in 2023 for the Swedish sensation.
If Aberg were visible (annoying I know) on the season-long PGA Tour statistic,s he would rank 2nd for Off the Tee, 1st for Total Driving, and 4th for Driving Distance. He would also rank 12th for Tee to Green (best in this field), 4th for Birdie Average (best in this field) and 3rd for Scoring Average (best in this field). Yes he’s played a limited schedule which makes direct comparison impossible, but Luke Donald describes him as a generational talent and for me he’s undoubtedly the best player in this field. He’s also an outstanding driver of the golf ball which will pay dividends this week on a long, wide, attackable Tiger Woods design.
Rested after 14 days in his Texas base, I’m reckoning that Ludvig will be raring to go in Los Cabos and he’s already shown he can score low totals as a young professional. 65-65 at the Travellers Championship; 65 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic; 64-63 at the John Deere Classic (finished 4th); 64 at the 3M Open; 64-64 when winning the Omega European Masters on the DP World Tour; 66-66 at Wentworth and 62 in his last competitive round when finishing 13th at the Shriners Children’s Open. RESULT: T10
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Akshay Bhatia and Paspalum golf courses really do go hand-in-hand. He also loves shooting low scores.
A winner of his first PGA Tour event as recently as July at the Barracuda Championship, that tournament uses the modified Stableford scoring system where eagles and birdies are the key. But that win is likely to be just a stepping stone as Bhatia across the full season has ranked 30th for both Strokes Gained Off the Tee & Approach, 33rd for Tee to Green and 23rd for Birdie Average – that’s 6th in this field behind only Aberg (if visible), Cameron Young, Montgomery, Sahith Theegala and Kevin Yu.
His Paspalum golf course form spanning both Korn Ferry and PGA Tour is also a joy to behold. 8th after 36 holes at El Camaleon in 2020 when only 18 years of age, Akshay has gone on to finish 1st (2022) and 4th (2023) at the Great Exuma Classic, 7th (2023) at the Great Abaco Classic, 2nd (2023) at the Puerto Rico Open, and 4th (2023) at the Mexico Open.
21st at the ZOZO Championship last time out, he ranked 11th for Greens in Regulation, 16th for Total Driving and 11th for Ball Striking. RESULT: T10
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I’ll stick for another week on Cameron Champ. The 3rd longest driver currently on the PGA Tour, I’m always drawn to him on long, wide golf courses where power off the tee is going to unlock opportunities. Prime examples of that would be 11th (2019) and 14th (2020) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, plus 19th (2020), 26th (2021) and 10th (2022) at Augusta National. Good finishes in stellar fields on courses where Strokes Gained Off the Tee matters.
Champ’s Paspalum formbook is also good enough to gain my vote this week. 10th at the Mayakoba Golf Classic at Norman designed El Camaleon in 2018 where he was 2nd after 36 holes, the Champions Course at Vidanta, which plays as a 7,450 yard, Par 71, with wide fairways has been an even happier home. We were on-board when he was 6th in 2022 and even this year when arriving with form of MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC he finished 8th behind Tony Finau and Jon Rahm.
9th at the Sanderson Farms, 18th at the Shriners Children’s Open where he was 1st going into the weekend, and 59th last time out in Japan, Cam has both momentum and the ability to close out – he’s a 3-time PGA Tour winner – this level of tournament. RESULT: T45
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I always keep an eye on Davis Riley. A definite talent for the future, Riley secured his first PGA Tour title in April of this year when he landed the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with partner Nick Hardy.
A closing Sunday 66 at Narashino last time out was noticeable (he finished 31st) for a player whose driving and approach play can be top-notch. 62nd in the in the FedExCup Fall Series, the WWT this week could unlock early 2024 Signature event opportunities or even more for the 26 year-old from Mississippi.
Long – 52nd for Driving Distance – and straightish – 101st for Driving Accuracy, it won’t surprise you to read that he ranks 39th on Tour for Total Driving. High level driving this week should unlock opportunities on this El Cardonal course. 2nd at the Valspar Championship, 4th at the Charles Schwab Challenge and great results at TPC Louisiana, across his short career to date, highlight a player who is happiest on southern located courses which feature Bermudagrass. That record also transfers to Paspalum and results in warmer climes outside of the United States.
8th in the Bahamas on a Paspalum golf course, 1st in Panama and 12th & 18th in Columbia on the Korn Ferry Tour, Riley also earned his maiden PGA Tour top 10 finish at the Bermuda Championship in 2021. Since then 5th at the 2022 Mexico Open again came on a Paspalum golf course and you can throw in 22nd last autumn at El Camaleon – another coastal Paspalum course which in reality suits plotters far better than power hitters like Davis. RESULT: MC
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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
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Brandon Wu has had his best PGA Tour year to date. Around the top 100 in the OWGR and at 65th in the FedExCup Fall Series, a win or a couple of top 10 finishes over the next 3 weeks could well see the 26 year-old make it into the first 2 Signature events of 2024. I expect he’s also looking forward to making his competitive debut at El Cardonal, on the basis he simply loves playing with the smell of sea salt in his nostrils.
2nd (2023) at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 7th (2021) and 3rd (2022) at the Puerto Rico Open, 2nd (2022) and 3rd (2023) at the Mexico Open, plus 6th (2022) at the Genesis Scottish Open, 5 of Wu’s 7 PGA Tour top 10s have been on courses within a stone’s throw of the sea. That’s also 4 top-7 finishes on Paspalum golf courses which play at 7,450 yards (Norman Signature Course) and 7,500 yards (Grand Reserve Country Club).
Undoubtedly playing by the coast brings out the best in the Stanford product, who will welcome the wide fairways and the links-like uneven lies and flat green approaches. RESULT: T54
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✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
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✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way
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