Congratulations if you were on-board Nicolas Echavarria at the recent ZOZO Championship at 250/1. If you were then send me a post at X as I’d like to congratulate you personally! I landed a full each-way place on Rickie Fowler at 55/1 with bet365.
The PGA Tour Fall Series is back this week and we move to Mexico. This time of year has seen a trip to Mexico since 2013 and the World Wide Technology Championship is played at El Cardonal GC at Diamante, located on the Pacific coast in the fashionable Cabo resort. It’s also a Tiger Woods golf course design – you’ll be reading and hearing that all week!
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Course Guide: Previous host course El Camaleon was a short, flat, coastal affair on the Caribbean Sea where accuracy counted. 2023 saw the WWT Championship move to Baja, California, which is effectively the Mexican controlled “Lower California” and the fashionable resort of Cabo San Lucas. El Cardonal Golf Course is an altogether different course set in desert conditions with wide fairways, much longer in length, and overlooking the Pacific Ocean.
El Cardonal at Diamante, Los Cabos, Mexico: Designer: Tiger Woods 2014; Course Type: Desert, Resort, Long; Par: 72; Length: 7,452 yards; number of Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 1; Number of Sand Bunkers: 48; Acres of Fairway: 97; Fairways: Platinum Paspalum; Rough: None; Greens: 8,300 sq.ft average featuring Platinum Paspalum; Tournament Stimp: 11ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2023: 68.99 (-1.70), Rank 56 of 58 courses.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for El Cardonal and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:
El Cardonal: Average 60 yards up to 70 yards wide.
TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
Black Desert: Average 30 yards up to 70-100 yards wide.
CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
Pete Dye Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.
Course Overview: El Cardonal opened in 2014. This course is part of the successful Diamante Resort and that’s worthy of note – whatever you read it’s effectively designed for the amateur golfer market. Erik van Rooyen won at -27/261 12 months ago.
The raw course numbers are also interesting. On the scorecard it’s a 7,452 yard, par 72. It’s the typical par 72 format so features 4 par-3s and 4 par-5s. The course is also within a stone’s throw of the Pacific coastline, so as it’s pretty much at sea level it plays all of that yardage.
The intrigue continues further as despite having panoramic views of the sea, the course is set in desert terrain featuring cacti, palo verde trees, scrubby desert flora, and encroaching desert arroyos. Those arroyos also effectively form the off-fairway hazards as this course features short fairway all the way. There’s no rough and errant tee shots in many cases will find a sandy or rocky location. Fairways are 60 to 70 yards wide in landing areas making them generous in the extreme, with only the Plantation Course at Kapalua and Black Desert Resort in Utah featuring such wide landing areas. In reality though, there are few forced carries with arroyos flanking holes rather than cutting across them in the main.
That link to Kapalua also holds further water as this El Cardonal layout is set on land which drops 240 feet along the mile-long stretch from the 17th tee to the 3rd fairway. There are undulations aplenty and this terrain proved demanding for both players and caddies alike. Flat holes are few and far between with ascending (par-5 14th climbs the most at 80 feet) and descending (par-5 6th falls the most at 70 feet) holes the norm.
Greens are huge which at 8,300 sq.ft.on average are some of the largest on the PGA Tour and tend to be canted diagonally. They look pretty flat. The course is also bedecked in Platinum Paspalum from tee to fairway to green. There’s no rough, with stray drives heading directly into bunkers.
WWT Championship Winners: Hosted at El Cardonal: 2023: Erik van Rooyen (-27); Hosted at El Camaleon: 2022: Russell Henley (-23); 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23); 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20); 2019: Brendon Todd (-20); 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22); 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19); 2016: Pat Perez (-21); 2015: Graeme McDowell (-18); 2014: Charley Hoffman (-17); 2013: Harris English (-21); 2012: John Huh (-13); 2011: Johnson Wagner (-17); 2010: Cameron Beckman (-15).
2023: Erik van Rooyen 68-64-66-63 -27/261 AM/PM Split
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the WWT Championship winners here at El Cardonal:
2023 – Erik van Rooyen: Round 1: 28th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 3rd.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the WWT Championship winners here at El Cardonal and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
2023 – Erik van Rooyen: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 1 back.
Incoming Form of WWT Championship winners since 2013:
Erik van Rooyen: 23rd Shriners/16th Sanderson/30th Fortinet/ 16th Irish Open.
Russell Henley: 45th CJ Cup/MC Sanderson/35th BMW/ MC St Jude.
Viktor Hovland: 18th CJ Cup/44th Shriners/49th BMW PGA/5th Tour.
Viktor Hovland: 15th Houston/47th ZOZO/12th CJ Cup/13th US Open.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Keith Mitchell, Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge, Patton Kizzire, Harry Hall, Jhonattan Vegas, Beau Hossler, Doug Ghim, Michael Kim and J.J. Spaun.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2023: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind WSW 7-13 mph, with gusts to 21 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 85. Wind W 7-13 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind W 10-15 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 85. Wind W 7-12 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Los Cabos, Mexico is here.
There has been plenty of precipitation in the build-up to the tournament with 249 mm across October, but none has fallen since the 22nd October. Baja in general – it’s a desert climate – has little rain, and that looks the case for WWT Championship week. So expect a typical Paspalum set-up with soft, slow, receptive greens. With little in the way of significant wind plus 24-26 degrees Celsius – 75-79 Fahrenheit – temperatures expect nice, low scoring.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Omega European Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Austin Smotherman; 2) Taylor Moore; 3) Cameron Champ; 4) Max Greyserman; 5) Alex Smalley / Jhonattan Vegas; 7) Scott Piercy; 8) Wesley Bryan; 9) Doug Ghim / Rico Hoey; 11) Will Gordon; 12) Joseph Bramlett; 13) Alejandro Tosti; 14) Patrick Fishburn / K.H. Lee / Luke List; 17) Pierceson Coody / Ryan McCormick / Matti Schmid; 20) Daniel Berger; 21) Austin Eckroat / Neal Shipley; 23) Sam Stevens; 24) Bud Cauley / J.J. Spaun.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Lucas Glover; 2) Max Greyserman; 3) Nick Hardy / Michael Kim; 5) Doug Ghim; 6) Austin Smotherman; 7) Patton Kizzire; 8) Lanto Griffin; 9) Matt Kuchar; 10) Kevin Chappell / Joe Highsmith / Scott Piercy; 13) Adam Svensson; 14) Tom Hoge; 15) Joseph Bramlett; 16) Carson Young; 17) Rico Hoey / Nate Lashley / Henrik Norlander; 20) Tom Whitney; 21) Zac Blair / Ben Griffin / Matti Schmid; 24) J.J. Spaun; 25) Trace Crowe / Jhonattan Vegas.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Luke Donald; 2) Ben Griffin / Kevin Tway; 4) Beau Hossler; 5) Adam Svensson; 6) Robby Shelton; 7) Ben Taylor; 8) Joseph Bramlett; 9) Camilo Villegas; 10) Erik van Rooyen; 11) Austin Eckroat; 12) Trace Crowe; 13) Harris English; 14) S.H. Kim / Martin Laird / David Lipsky; 17) Joe Highsmith; 18) Taylor Moore / Hayden Springer; 20) Charley Hoffman / Patton Kizzire / Nate Lashley / Chandler Phillips; 24) Aaron Baddeley / Zac Blair / Matt Kuchar / Sam Stevens / Vincent Whaley.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Austin Smotherman; 2) Lucas Glover; 3) Joseph Bramlett / Doug Ghim; 5) Max Greyserman; 6) Joe Highsmith / Adam Svensson; 8) Austin Eckroat / Michael Kim; 10) Ben Griffin; 11) Rico Hoey; 12) Scott Piercy; 13) Matt Kuchar / Henrik Norlander; 15) Nick Hardy; 16) J.J. Spaun; 17) Beau Hossler; 18) Jhonattan Vegas; 19) Patton Kizzire; 20) Neal Shipley; 21) Bud Cauley; 22) Patrick Fishburn; 23) Taylor Moore / Sam Stevens; 25) K.H. Lee / Alex Smalley.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Max Greyserman; 2) Kevin Tway; 3) Harry Hall; 4) Taylor Moore; 5) Taylor Montgomery; 6) Vincent Whaley; 7) Jacob Bridgeman / Wesley Bryan; 9) Sam Stevens; 10) David Lipsky / Justin Lower; 12) Wilson Furr / Matti Schmid / Neal Shipley; 15) Patton Kizzire / Chad Ramey / Jhonattan Vegas; 18) Nicolas Echavarria / Chesson Hadley; 20) Patrick Rodgers; 21) Lucas Glover; 22) Patrick Fishburn; 23) Beau Hossler / Luke List / Norman Xiong.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Max Greyserman; 2) Lucas Glover; 3) Wesley Bryan / Joe Highsmith; 5) Matti Schmid; 6) Doug Ghim / Taylor Moore / Neal Shipley; 9) Harry Hall / Sam Stevens; 11) Ben Griffin; 12) Beau Hossler / Jhonattan Vegas; 14) Patton Kizzire; 15) Kevin Tway; 16) Austin Smotherman; 17) Rico Hoey; 18) Scott Piercy; 19) Matt Kuchar; 20) Patrick Fishburn / Henrik Norlander; 22) Chandler Phillips; 23) Charley Hoffman; 24) J.J. Spaun; 25) Bud Cauley / Justin Lower.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of WWT Championship winner in 2023 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test
2023, Erik van Rooyen (-27). 301 yards (43rd), 92.9% fairways (25th), 86.1% greens in regulation (13th), 60.0 % scrambling (29th), 1.55 putts per GIR (2nd).
Let’s take a view from players as to how El Cardonal set up in 2023 and what specific skills it requires:
Erik Van Rooyen (2023): “You know, if it’s as calm as it was this morning, someone’s going to get to 25. So just keep making birdies.
The course matches me great. I’m a great iron player. Like I said, the fairways are wide so everyone’s going to be hitting all of them. It’s a second shot golf course. There’s lots of little pockets in the greens and it kind of suits my game. I’ve putted well this week as well, so everything’s coming together nicely.”
Matt Kuchar (2023): “A lot of this place is very generous fairways. Fairways are pretty easy to find. It’s I think kind of a second-shot golf course, back nine even more so than the front nine. Back nine feels like they have a lot of rejection greens, the front nine are more collection greens. So on the back nine you’ve really got to kind of focus on avoiding a few of those big fall-offs on the greens and I was able to do that pretty well today.
It was a lot of good steady golf. The 12th hole is a difficult green, hit just a 9-iron in, but nice approach shot, my third hole of the day to get going with a birdie there. It was just steady golf. I felt good over the driver. It’s a thing, these fairways are forgiving, but if you do miss it’s big trouble. You want to make sure you’re in these fairways. Even though they’re pretty wide, pretty forgiving, if you do get off, there are big numbers to be had.
Listen, the 15th hole is I think one everybody’s kind of got circled in their yardage book, this one could get you in some trouble. I hit a terrible tee shot, tried to ride the wind, tried to have a slightly shorter club in and ended up hitting a big hook instead of a little draw. It was a big hook in the junk. That’s the only one I’d love to have back.”
2015 – Baddeley, Fathauer, Leonard, Stefani – All AM Wave -6/65.
2014 – Berger, Finau, Garrigus, MacKenzie, Swafford, Wheatcroft – All AM Wave -6/65.
2013 – Karlsson – PM Wave -8/63.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Paspalum PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
2 – Ryan Moore.
1 – Ryan Brehm, Joel Dahmen, Nico Echavarria, Chesson Hadley, Charley Hoffman, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Chad Ramey, Martin Trainer, Erik van Rooyen.
The new El Cardonal at Diamante layout certainly played a little differently to its predecessor El Camaleon. A desert style, resort golf course with wide fairways, undulations aplenty and huge green complexes, Erik van Rooyen won this by 2 shots from Matt Kuchar and Camilo Villegas last year.
My Final WWT Championship Tips Are As Follows:
Lucas Glover 2pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with William Hill
I’ll stick with Lucas Glover for a third consecutive tournament. T3 at the Sanderson Farms Championship – his best ever result at the Country Club of Jackson – was followed by T3 at the Black Desert Championship where he shot a closing -9/62, when he finally gained 3.38 Strokes with the Putter. Naturally the short stick is the weakest part of Glover’s game, so it’s eye-opening seeing him ranking in this field within the top 25 for Strokes Gained Putting, plus 1st for Approach and 2nd for Strokes Gained Current Form across my 8-tournament tracker.
From a desert form perspective, Glover’s one and only Nationwide Tour win (Korn Ferry now) was the 2003 Gila River Classic played at the Whirlwind Golf Club in Arizona. Plus, from a desert PGA Tour perspective, Lucas has finished 3rd (2017), 7th (2019) and 9th (2020) at TPC Summerlin, and if we’re looking at Kapalua as a decent comparison course then Glover was 6th there on course in 2006, plus was the 36- and 54-hole leader there in 2010 (finished 14th). He also has El Cardonal experience from 12 months ago finishing 59th when rusty after playing no competitive golf since the Tour Championship.
A 6-time winner on the PGA Tour, which includes the 2009 U.S. Open plus the 2023 FedEx St Jude Invitational (FEC Playoff event), Glover has a huge advantage over most in this field, i.e. his ability to get across the line, plus after playing all of the 2024 Majors due to his 2 wins last summer, Glover will see this week as a huge opportunity to potentially rack-up his 7th win, take a top 10 spot in the FedEx Fall Series List, plus guarantee his current spot in the World’s top 50 players by the close of 2024. The win or the OWGR top 50 would garner a 2025 Masters invitation pre-Christmas. RESULT: T24
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Doug Ghim 2pts EW 25/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with William Hill
Doug Ghim still has all to play for in 2024 and I think that El Cardonal is a nice set-up for the Las Vegas resident. A stellar amateur career included finishing runner-up at the 2017 U.S. Amateur played at Riviera Country Club; he also won the coveted Ben Hogan Award before turning professional in 2018, then graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019. Progression though on the PGA Tour has been slower for the 28 year-old, but you get the feeling the confidence is building and that a breakout maiden PGA Tour victory could well be close by.
In the top 11 on the PGA Tour in 2024 for Strokes Gained Tee to Green – only bettered in this field by Keith Mitchell – is stellar stuff, plus his ranking of 6th for Strokes Gained Approach is only surpassed by Tom Hoge and Lucas Glover in this field. Ranking in the top 6 for Strokes Gained Current Form and the top 5 for both Approach and Tee to Green across my 8-tournament Strokes Gained trackers, Doug has been positive with his putting across his past 2 events at both TPC Summerlin and Narashino. 2nd at the Shriners Children’s Open was Ghim’s best ever finish on the PGA Tour which saw him shoot -6/65 in Sunday’s last group with winner J.T. Poston – he’s undoubtedly progressing.
Indeed his desert golf form is quietly impressive: PGA West – 5th (2021); TPC Scottsdale – 12th (2024); TPC Summerlin 2nd (2024); plus 15th here at El Cardonal last year, arriving off form of MC-MC. You can also tie that Paspalum golf course form with 8th this year at the Mexico Open played at Vidanta on the Norman Signature Course. RESULT: T20
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Joe Highsmith 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with William Hill
Joe Highsmith has been on a tare across the Fall Series and now has a serious chance of grabbing full top 125 playing privileges for the 2025 season. Fall form of 13/55/6/16 is impressive and includes 6th at the Black Desert Championship and 16th at the Shriners Children’s Open. Both were desert assignments, with Highsmith shooting a Saturday 62 at Black Desert on a wide fairway golf course, so we know he can go low.
Joe only turned pro in 2022 and his rise through the PGA Tour Canada and Korn Ferry has been quietly impressive, and now he finds himself within touching distance of earning a full PGA Tour card in his rookie season – at 126th in the FedEx Fall Series List he’s the guy on the wrong side of the bubble. So I expect a fully motivated 24 year-old this week in Mexico, who across my 8-tournament Strokes Gained trackers ranks in the top 10 for Approach and Tee to Green and T3 for Strokes Gained Current Form.
Plus the Pepperdine University graduate has shown an aptitude for long, Par 72, Paspalum golf courses on the PGA Tour this year, finishing 6th at the Puerto Rico Open – Grand Reserve Country Club – where he was the 36-hole leader. RESULT: 5th
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Henrik Norlander 1pt EW 80/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with William Hill
In the category of needing a result desperately is our old friend Henrik Norlander and quite clearly he knows it.
11th (Barracuda), 12th (3M Open), 8th (Omega European Masters) and 8th (Black Desert Championship) within his last 9 tournaments played, he’s comfortably within the top 20 of my 8-tournament Strokes Gained Current form tracker plus Approach and Tee to Green trackers.
At 121st in the FedExCup Fall Series List, Norlander needs one more top finish to reclaim a top 125 full privileges position back on the Tour, and he has always been the sort who pops-up on scoreable tests. He’s also been quietly encouraging on Paspalum golf courses of late. 15th (2023) and 15th (2024) at the Puerto Rico Open (Grand Reserve Country Club), 15th (2022) at El Camaleon, he was also 13th at this year’s Mexico Open played at Vidanta. That latter result is notable on the basis that Norlander was T3 heading into Sunday, played in the second last group on Sunday, plus ranked 2nd across the week for Strokes Gained Putting. RESULT: T30
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Wesley Bryan 1pt EW 125/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with William Hill
Wesley Bryan is also making hay across the Fall Series. With ridiculously restricted opportunities from a Past Winner Status – this will be only his 16th PGA Tour start of 2024 – Wesley has bumped himself up to 138th in the FedExCup Fall Series List. Remember Top 125 earn full PGA Tour cards – a player can enter all non-Signature level events of their choice – with 126-150 receiving Conditional Status.
Last time we saw Wesley was at the Black Desert Resort where after a disappointing opening round 72 which saw him sit T109 on the 18-hole leaderboard and staring at a missed cut, he delivered 3 exceptional rounds of 65-67-66 to finish T21. To put that into context, his Friday-Sunday 54 hole scoring was only beaten by Lucas Glover, Matti Schmid and Seamus Power, plus was a shot better than winner Matt McCarty and runner-up Stephan Jaeger. Bryan is clearly playing well and will be enthused to continue his good play which sees him rank in the top 3 for Strokes Gained Current Form across my 8-tournament tracker.
Plus Bryan has always played well outside of the United States in these more southerly climes. The 2016 Mexico Championship winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, Bryan also finished 6th that year in Colombia, plus 7th in Panama. That trend has also continued from a PGA Tour perspective with Wesley finishing 6th at the 2023 Puerto Rico Open at Grand Reserve Country Club, plus 15th (2022) and memorably 2nd (2024) at the Corales Championship – Corales Golf Club. Both these courses are naturally long, Par 72, Paspalum agronomy set-ups and Bryan’s Corales exploits are memorable as he shot -21/267 leading throughout before being pipped by Billy Horschel.
Even during the dark days of May 2022 Bryan was 13th after 54 holes at the Mexico Open at Vidanta before falling back to 33rd on Sunday. 30 months down the line the 34 year-old South Carolinian is in the best nick he’s been for a long while. RESULT: T6
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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:00GMT 4.11.24 but are naturally subject to fluctuation. *William Hill switched to 6 places each way 1/5 odds after publication, please check all aspects of your bets carefully before placing.
