Congratulations if you were on-board Lee Hodges at Monday prices (bet365) of up to 90/1. I wasn’t anywhere near to selecting Hodges, but did land a full each-way return at 45/1 on J.T. Poston.
This week we travel to the Wyndham Championship, played at Sedgefield Country Club in
Also worthy of note that the top 125 cut off for full playing privileges for next season is after the RSM Classic in mid-November. This is because the new PGA Tour season starts in January for the first time since 2013.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Wyndham Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,200 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: Sedgefield is an original Donald Ross design which has typical Carolina course overtures. A short Par 70 by modern standards, the course still favours accuracy from the tee over outright power. Ultimately streaky scorers have got the job done here, with scoring being dictated solely by the firmness of the greens when wind isn’t a factor.
Champion Bermudagrass greens were laid for the 2012 renewal and they undoubtedly run faster than the tired Bentgrass putting surfaces they replaced, particularly if conditions remain dry. But as the greens have settled, scoring continues to improve with -21/258, -22/258, -21/259, -22/258, -21/259 and -20/260 being 6 of the last 7 winning totals.
Sedgefield Country Club, Greensboro, North Carolina: Designer: Donald Ross 1926, with Kris Spence renovation 2007; Course Type: Carolina , Resort, Short Length; Par: 70; Length: 7,131 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-play: 6; Fairways: Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average featuring Champion Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 12.5ft.
Course Scoring Average: 2012: 69.37 (-0.63), Difficulty Rank 35 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.97 (-0.03), Difficulty Rank 23 of 43 courses. 2014: 69.21 (-0.79), Rank 38 of 48 courses. 2015: 68.86 (-1.14), Rank 40 of 52 courses. 2016: 68.97 (-1.03), Rank 37 of 50 courses. 2017: 68.81 (-1.19), Rank 37 of 50 courses. 2018: 68.69 (-1.31), Rank 40 of 51 courses. 2019: 68.18 (-1.82), Rank 41 of 49 courses. 2020: 68.78 (-1.22), Rank 29 of 41 courses. 2021: 68.88 (-1.12), Rank 34 of 51 courses. 2022: 69.26 (-0.74), Rank 27 of 50 courses.
Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Sedgefield Country Club and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:
Course Designer Links: For research purposes, other Donald Ross designs include:
Course Overview: Sedgefield CC is perennially one the two easiest Par-70s on the PGA Tour alongside Waialae CC (Sony Open). Take 2021 with 34 players finishing double-digits under Par. Set to the south-east of Greensboro, the course has a typical Carolina feel with tree-lined fairways, pine straw and Bermudagrass throughout. Fairways are quite tight, but relatively easy to find if conditions are soft. Driving accuracy often helps, but the key to the course, which measures just over 7,200 yards, are Ross’s green complexes which although undulating and surrounded by shaved run-off areas are actually large for the length of the course.
If the Champion Bermudagrass greens are receptive (as they were in 2017, for the opening 36 holes of 2018/19, the final 3 rounds of 2020 and the final rounds of 2021 & 2022), that’s the green light for low scoring. Winners here year-in, year-out must hit a minimum 13 greens per round and invariably break par every 1 in 3 holes. A fast start, excellent and consistent approach play, and a reasonably hot putter are they keys to victory, plus it’s noteworthy that the front 9 plays far easier and has to be capitalised upon.
Wyndham Championship Winners: 2022: Tom Kim (-20); 2021: Kevin Kisner (-15); 2020: Jim Herman (-21); 2019: J.T. Poston (-22); 2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21); 2017: Henrik Stenson (-22); 2016: Si-Woo Kim (-21); 2015: Davis Love III (-17); 2014: Camilo Villegas (-17); 2013: Patrick Reed (-14); 2012: Sergio Garcia (-18); 2011: Webb Simpson (-18); 2010: Arjun Atwal (-22).
OWGR of Wyndham Championship Winners: 2022: T Kim 34; 2021: Kisner 52; 2020: Herman 311; 2019: Poston 164; 2018: Snedeker 88; 2017: Stenson 4.
Cut Line: 2022: -1; 2021: -3; 2020: -3; 2019: -4; 2018: -3.
Lead Score Progression:
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: J.T. Poston, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Webb Simpson, Denny McCarthy, Justin Thomas, Lucas Glover, Taylor Moore, Cam Davis and Alex Noren.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
Wyndham Championship Winning Prices: 2022: T Kim 40/1; 2021: Kisner 55/1; 2020: Jim Herman 600/1; 2019: J.T. Poston 100/1; 2018: Brandt Snedeker 28/1; 2017: Stenson 14/1; 2016: S.W. Kim 150/1; 2015: Love III 500/1; 2014: Villegas 125/1; 2013: Reed 80/1; 2012: Garcia 40/1; 2011: Simpson 20/1; 2010: Atwal 200/1. Past 9 Renewals Average: 179/1; Overall Average: 150/1. For a full summary of winner’s odds on the PGA Tour since 2010 click here.
Historical Weather:
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Greensboro, North Carolina, is here.
We very much revert to PGA Tour type this week in North Carolina. Up to 33-37 degrees Celsius (91-99 Fahrenheit) little wind and the threat of thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. With 83mm of rain in July, the course has received rain, but not as much as we have seen across recent renewals pre-tournament. But playing conditions really depend on what rain is received from Wednesday onwards. We have seen fast greens here across both 2021 and 2022, limiting scoring to an extent, and that could well be the case again in 2023. I’m expecting something in the mid- to upper-teens winning this.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the RBC Canadian Open which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Sedgefield Country Club since 2016 click here.
Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Wyndham Championship winners here at Sedgefield since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this low-scoring Par 70:
Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:
Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the past 11 winners here since the green complexes were changed to Champion Bermudagrass in 2012 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
Tournament Skill Averages:
Let’s take a view from players as to how Sedgefield Country Club since the introduction of Bermudagrass greens (2012) has set up in the past and what specific skills it requires:
Tom Kim (2022): “Yeah, I mean, I just, I didn’t really feel uncomfortable. Normally it’s all kind of a mental thing, I feel like. Just you want to start good and a start like (A quadruple bogey on the 1st hole) that wasn’t the best, but I told myself, hey, imagine if you make two more bogeys a day, it’s just one hole, so just keep pushing. There’s definitely a lot of opportunities out there. You know, I got a good birdie on 3 to just kind of get my momentum and had a really good up-and-down on the par 5. Just kind of kept pushing. Felt like after the first hole I kind of played really solid.”
“I feel like I take it one day at a time. Just because I’ve been playing well, I played well last week, this could be a really different week. I told myself it’s a fresh start. This is my fifth, sixth week in a row, I played a lot of golf coming from Scotland as well, but I feel ready and I’m happy to be out here.”
Kevin Kisner (2021): “My record’s pretty good here at Sedgefield and I enjoy where everybody– we’ve got to put the ball in the same place. And then I love the greens surfaces, obviously what I grew up on. There’s less of those courses on Tour than ever, so when we get to weeks like this, I really have to be on form to play well and these are my chances to hold the trophies.”
Jim Herman (2020): “ Yeah, 61, it’s great anytime you can do that. Just gave myself good looks. You’ve got to be below the hole, got to have makeable putts out here or you’re going to be playing defensive. If you’re above the hole, you’re going to be just lagging all day long. I had a really good approach game today, I think I hit almost every green. The one green I did miss, I putted in from off the green. Yeah, good iron play. Starts off the tee with me, got to hit it in the fairway. I’m not as long as most guys out here, so I’ve got to put it in play, give myself a chance from the fairway.”
J.T. Poston (2019): “ Ball-striking’s been really good, haven’t missed many greens. Just keep giving myself a lot of looks and hit a lot of good putts. Made a few, but just really steady, solid golf for the most part. The golf course was easy enough to where if you hit fairways, you could attack some pins, and my iron play was really solid all week. So it was nice to give myself some looks, and today I finally made some putts and was able to get that low one in there.”
Brandt Snedeker (2018): “Yeah, I’m playing a lot better than I have been early in the year. I’m excited about the way I’m rolling the ball, putting great again. For whatever reason, seems like every week I have a bad round or a bad nine holes that kind of keeps me out of contention. So a big focus this week is staying patient. This is a golf course I had a lot of success on, I love it. It breeds kind of my kind of play hit, hit fairways, hit some greets, lots of wedge opportunities. It’s going to turn into a birdie-fest like it always does because the course is in great, shape so you know what you have to do when you step up on the first tee, put the ball in play and give yourself a lot of opportunities. So excited about that and excited about seeing how my game’s feeling. After last week at the PGA I kind of found something I thought on the weekend and hopefully it kind of stays in there and gives me a good chance to win this week.”
Henrik Stenson: “I think whenever you play a week after a Major championship, which isn’t all the time for me I found in the past you can find the golf courses quite easy when you play the tougher course the week before and you still kind of keep a strong mindset in terms of one shot at a time which, again, you always want to have but probably even more so at the Majors. It’s crucial. I’ve had some good success in particular playing in Germany the week after the U.S. Open a lot of times and done well.
Have left the driver out this week. Strong 3-wood, 4-wood and 2-iron. Putting myself in position and trying to stay out of that Bermuda rough. If you do that you got pretty short clubs and you can be accurate with your second shots. Plenty more of the same tomorrow. I’m trying to be kind of offensive to defensive spots, if you know, off the tee on a few of holes but then you get a lot of 8, 9 irons, wedges into these greens and they’re pretty receptive. You can be pretty aggressive if you’re feeling you got good numbers and feels right, go for it. We’ll produce a lot of birdie chances the first two days. My putting has been excellent. I’ve seen the lines nicely. Hit a lot of good putts and I’ve been hitting a lot of good iron shots as well, some wedges and some mid to short irons, and that’s kind of what I keep on doing and trying to hit a lot of fairways with the 3-wood and trying to attacking the hole and that’s been working nicely so far. No need to change that for tomorrow.”
Luke Donald: “It’s a course I really enjoy. I love the design of this course. The greens are very true, very fast, quite undulating. You have to have some imagination. And nice to get off to a solid start. Conditions were nice out there. The greens are holding for the most part and not too much wind. So, you’re playing well there’s some opportunities out there. I struggled a little bit visualizing that tee shot. It was a couple tee shots you don’t see them land and 18 is one of them. I hit a poor tee shot left and had to chip out. I had a good number with a little wedge, stick it to that pin. Would have been disappointing to drop one there after playing so well for the rest of the round.”
Webb Simpson: “It goes back to the point of the golf course. Bay Hill, Tiger won so many times. Akron produces long hitters winning there. Depending on the golf course you kind of create your own pool of winners that are usually going to win there, whereas this course, like I said, it favours nobody. So I think that’s what makes it hard to repeat, that if you have a field of whatever, what did we have, 156 players, that most everybody in the field has a legitimate chance to win whereas, you know, maybe you go to San Diego, I can’t remember the last time somebody who didn’t bomb it winning there. That’s a place where you take out 50 percent of the field from the start of the week. like I said earlier about the golf course, I don’t think it’s one where you have to play many years to learn it, where a lot of courses you do. Like Augusta is a good example whereas this golf course is more straight in front of you and, again, it’s a level playing field for everyone which I wish we played more like these.”
Tiger Woods: “The golf course is tricky. I know it’s wet and the fairways, ball in hand but the greens are so fast. They’re so speedy. Hideki, myself, even Brooks, we ripped a couple putts down there probably 10, 15 feet past the hole and even though as wet as they are, they’re still that fast downhill, down-grain and got to respect it and it puts such a premium on iron play to put the ball in the right spot and give yourself putts. For the majority of the day I was putting myself in perfect spots where I can be aggressive.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Wyndham Championship since 2012:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the Wyndham Championship winners since 2012 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Incoming Form of Wyndham Championship since 2010:
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
Recent winning totals of -20, -15, -21, -22, -21, -22, -21, -17, -17, -14 and -18 highlight that the key to success in Greensboro is two-fold: make plenty of eagles and birdies plus minimise dropped shots. It’s also worth noting that we’re returning to a Champion Bermudagrass greened golf course this week – naturally many have played months of Bentgrass and Poa Annua grasses. Indeed this is the first Bermudagrass greened tournament since the Wells Fargo Championship in May. On the current PGA schedule the only courses where Champion Bermudagrass greens feature are Congaree (2021 Palmetto Championship & 2022 CJ Cup), TPC Southwind, Quail Hollow (since the 2017 PGA Championship) and the Country Club of Jackson.
It won’t surprise in a tournament where 4 straight rounds of 65/66 is the target that streaky scorers dominate the contending positions. However game-wise since the swap to Champion Bermudagrass greens it’s safe to say that Garcia, Reed, Villegas, Love III, Si Woo Kim, Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, J.T. Poston, Jim Herman, Kevin Kisner and Tom Kim all primarily won through their ability to create enough birdie opportunities with neat tee-to-green play which they then converted. Those looking for Donald Ross-positive players should look no further than PGA Tour tracks Aronimink (AT&T National 2009/10 & 2018 BMW Championship), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), East Lake (Tour Championship) as well as Oak Hill (2013 & 2023 PGA Championship) and Pinehurst No2 (2014 U.S. Open).
Sedgefield has a habit of producing first time PGA Tour winners with Tom Kim, J.T. Poston, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Arjun Atwal and Ryan Moore all recording their first main-Tour victories here since 2008. FedEx Cup standings-wise, Webb Simpson was 12th in the standings when he captured his first title here at 20/1 in 2011. Since then 102nd, 78th, 105th, 187th, 44th, 75th, 80th, 83rd, 192nd, 69th and Special Temporary Member (Tom Kim could only qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs by winning the Wyndham) suggest that we should certainly consider players a little deeper than the very obvious candidates this week.
Hideki Matsuyama 2.5pts EW 18/1 (8EW,1/5) with bet365
Hideki Matsuyama seems primed to win on the PGA Tour very soon and he undoubtedly has motivation to play well at the Wyndham Championship this week.
At 56th in the FedEx Cup standings he’ll be playing the first leg of the Playoffs next week in Southwind whatever happens here at Sedgefield, but it’s worth remembering that the top 50 post FedEx St Jude Championship move onto the BMW Championship. That is also very importantly the same 50 players that will have guaranteed access to the top-level designated events in late 2023 and 2024. It’s hardly life or death I grant you – and for a player like Matsuyama (and Justin Thomas) you know the PGA Tour will find a way to squeeze the big names in – but for an 8-time PGA Tour winner, which includes the 2021 Masters, he will undoubtedly feel that he should be playing within the PGA Tour’s biggest events.
Winless since the 2022 Sony Open played on Bermudagrass greens at Waialae Country Club, Hideki is playing the peerless Strokes Gained Approach and Tee to Green game that precedes all of his victories. 11th for Approach and 5th for Tee to Green last week in Minnesota on his way to 30th spot, an opening day -7/64 was a pointer that the World Number 31 is starting to peak. Naturally we just need the putter to cooperate.
Sedgefield is undoubtedly the sort of tree-lined challenge Hideki enjoys, like Waialae, Narashino and Augusta, and that shows across 7 visits here where he has finished 15th (2013 course debut), 3rd (2016) and 11th (2018). An exceptional week Tee to Green here at Sedgefield as we have seen from the likes of Luke Donald, C.T. Pan and Kevin Na, can undoubtedly get you in the victory mix at the Wyndham and in the case of Si Woo Kim ultimately victory, as long as the putter isn’t a complete disaster. We shall see! RESULT: MC
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J.T. Poston 1.5pts EW 30/1 (8EW,1/5) with bet365
2019 Wyndham Championship champion J.T. Poston makes my squad for the second consecutive week and tops this week’s Predictor Model, which of course you can use free of charge here at Golf Betting System. The history of this tournament is littered with multiple champions such as Byron Nelson, Sam Snead, Doug Sanders, Billy Casper, Sandy Lyle, Davis Love III and Brandt Snedeker, and in J.T. Poston we have a North Carolina native, where this tournament means a great deal, who is playing some excellent stuff. Current form of 2-41-6-6 includes 6th at the John Deere Classic, 6th at the Genesis Scottish Open and 2nd at the 3M Open last week. Impressive stuff.
Low scoring tournaments have always been the speciality of ‘The Postman’ since his arrival on the PGA Tour back in 2016. 5th at the 2018 Barbasol and 7th at the 2019 Desert Classic, his win here in 2019 and 1st at the 2022 John Deere Classic all came at -21, -19, -21 and -21. 7th for Strokes Gained on Approach, 10th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 10th for Strokes Gained Putting last week in Minnesota, his win last July at the John Deere Classic came off a direct 2nd place finish the outing before at the Travelers Championship. RESULT: T7
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Cam Davis 1.25pts ew 40/1 (8EW,1/5) with bet365
Cam Davis is the perfect sort for the challenge ahead this week as he loves short courses and likes events where the scoring is lower.
On tracks where he can club down he’s extremely effective, and his record on Ross designs is eye-catching. And at 69th in the FedEx Cup standings, the Wyndham Championship will be huge for him so as to cement a place in the 2023 PlayOffs, or potentially even break into the top 50 with a view to making the BMW Championship and punch a ticket through to those big money designated events.
22nd (2019 course debut) and 15th (2020) here across his 2 visits to Sedgefield Country Club, Davis is a far better player these days. The 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic winner at the Donald Ross designed Detroit Golf Club, Cam since March has delivered 5 top-17 finishes on the PGA Tour. 6th at The Players Championship, 7th at the designated RBC Heritage and 4th at the PGA Championship highlight the level of golf that the 28 year-old from Sydney can produce. Naturally as a pointer Oak Hill is also another Donald Ross design.
Since then 17th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 10th last week at the 3M Open are results that the likes of Sungjae Im and Justin Thomas would kill for right now, especially as the Australian was 11th and 12th for Strokes Gained on Approach, plus 17th and 12th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green respectively. The putter also warmed from a deep freeze across both Detroit and TPC Twin Cities and Cam finished the 3M with a -6/65 on Sunday which was T5 best score of the day. Davis arrives with both momentum and the need to play well this week. RESULT: T7
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Aaron Rai 1.25pts ew 40/1 (8EW,1/5) with bet365
Aaron Rai is playing outstanding golf right now. Across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers in this field he ranks top 25 for Off the Tee, top 10 for Around the Green, top 5 for Tee to Green and 1st for Strokes Gained Current Form. 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open, 24th at the Travelers Championship and 9th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic help power those strong current statistics and they were buoyed last week by another top 20. 5th for Driving Accuracy, 14th for Greens in Regulation and 23rd for Strokes Gained Tee to Green across the whole season tell you exactly what the Wolverhampton man’s game is all about, so it’s also been fascinating to see that he’s been Strokes Gained positive for Putting across his last 4 starts in North America.
A winner on the Challenge Tour in Kenya (2017) and a winner on the DP World Tour at the 2018 Honma Hong Kong Open played on the tight, tree-lined Fanling set-up which also features Bermudagrass greens, Aaron’s game should suit Sedgefield Country Club. Indeed he made the cut here last year on course debut and was 34th heading into Sunday, before a dispiriting Sunday saw him finish 71st. 12 months on and he’s in a far better spot (61st in the FEC Rankings), to seal his place in the FedEx Cup Playoffs for a second consecutive season and to potentially join the likes of Tom Kim, J.T. Poston, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Arjun Atwal and Ryan Moore who all recorded their maiden PGA Tour victories here since 2008. RESULT: MC
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Alex Noren 1pt ew 80/1 (8ew, 1/5) with Boylesports
Although I much prefer Alex Noren on Bentgrass or Bent Poa Annua mix greens, it’s very much a case of now or never on the PGA Tour for the Swede who must still be harbouring hopes of a Team Europe Ryder Cup spot. 102nd in the FedEx Cup standings is the reality in which the 10-time DP World Tour player finds himself, so only a top 2/3 finish will suffice if he wants to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs and continue his recent momentum which has seen him finish 9th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 23rd at the Open Championship and 13th at the 3M Open.
If Noren doesn’t make it into the Playoffs this week, he will have to ply his trade on the DP World Tour across the Czech Masters, Omega European Masters and the Horizon Irish Open in the hope of impressing Team Europe captain Luke Donald, who interestingly plays in the Wyndham this week. That’s certainly not an ideal situation.
3rd at the 2018 Honda Classic, 12th at the 2021 WGC St Jude Invitational, 5th at the 2022 Honda Classic and 4th at the 2022 Houston Open highlight a player who can compete in America on the Bermudagrass greens. Plus Alex was 2nd at the DP World Tour Championship hosted at the Earth Course in November. RESULT: T38
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