Congratulations if you were on the 14/1 favourite Tom Kim last week at the Shriners Children’s Open. A player I always look out for, it was great to see him pick up his 3rd PGA Tour title.
This week we return to Japan for the ZOZO Championship. This is the fifth running of the ZOZO and the fourth in Japan after the success of 2019. Let’s be honest, Tiger Woods winning the first ever PGA Tour sanctioned event in Japan was the stuff of legend and it was followed-up by home hero Hideki Matsuyama winning this in 2021.
The ZOZO is a short field, 78-player, no cut event. It features the top 60 available PGA Tour players from the Regular Season FedEx Cup standings, plus a host of the Japan Golf Tour’s best talent. With an $8.5 million prize fund, it’s the richest tournament of the FedEx Fall.
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Before we go into the detail surrounding the ZOZO Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,300 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Guide: The Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is just outside of Japan’s sprawling capital Tokyo. Set to east of the planet’s biggest city near Chiba, Narashino CC has 3 full sets of 18 holes, namely the King, Kuko and Queen courses.
The ZOZO Championship this week will play a composite layout on what is a typical Japanese course. Parkland in nature, the course is tree-lined, features plenty of doglegs and small putting surfaces. Another Japanese golf course design feature is that some of the holes at Narashino feature 2 greens. ZOZO like to utilise this for the tournament, with different greens used across different days, and this will be a feature on the par-4 4th hole.
Narashino Country Club, Chiba, Japan: Designer: Kinya Fujita 1976, with PGA Tour (2016-19) renovations; Course Type: Parkland, Mid-Score, Short; Par: 70; Length: 7,079 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Fairways: Zoysiagrass; Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″; Greens: Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft.
Course Overview: The Narashino Country Club will provide a typically Japanese test this week. A short Par 70 at 7,079 yards – freshly extended from 7,041 yards in 2021 – the course is instantly different, as it is based upon a 34 front / 36 back format. The composite course is composed of 5 par-3s, 10 par-4s and 3 par-5s. Not your typical Par 70 then. The par-5s come in at 587 yards (6th) and 608 yards (14th) and 562 yards (18th), so in essence the 6th and 18th are reachable in theory to the longer hitters.
Another fascinating angle here at Narashino are the 10 par-4s, which are distinctly either short or punishingly long. I personally can’t recall a course where none of the par-4s measure between 426 yards and 485 yards, but this is exactly what we see here. Instead there are 5 holes which at sub-425 yards provide excellent birdie opportunities, versus the other 50% which measure 505 yards (4th), 486 yards (9th), 486 yards (11th), 490 yards (12th) and 491 yards (17th). Hit a poor tee shot and players severely struggle for par on these holes.
The course itself is undulating and set in beautiful Japanese parkland. A tree-lined venue, lines off the tee look moderately claustrophobic. Players have referenced Chapultepec which hosted the WGC-Mexico Championship from 2017 to 2020. There are 6 doglegs to add character, but in general the rough is little real penalty. Putting surfaces are small in size, well defended by bunkers and feature Bentgrass. Green complexes are also contoured, making target areas very small for approach shots.
Narashino Country Club also features Zoysiagrass fairways and rough. Zoysiagrass is a relative rarity on the PGA Tour. Think TPC Southwind (FedEx St Jude Championship, WGC St Jude Invitational and before that the St Jude Classic) and East Lake (Tour Championship) as the regular PGA Tour stop offs featuring this kind of grass, which is renowned for its springy nature. The AT&T Byron Nelson played at both Trinity Forest (2018/19) and now TPC Craig Ranch also features Zoysiagrass. Plenty of professionals claim it promotes flyers, whilst others like the way the ball tends to sit-up on it. Either way, it’s another research angle to attack.
The final unique, to the PGA Tour anyway, aspect we find at Narashino, are the twin greens. This is a typical aspect of Japanese golf course design, with A and B greens, many featuring different grasses, so that foot traffic is managed over a golf season. For the ZOZO the par-4 4th hole, which is +500 yards, will see 2 greens in operation across the tournament. For the rest of the course, if approaches land on the non-used greens surfaces, there will be a free drop on the nearest point of relief.
ZOZO Championship Winners: Hosted at Narashino CC: 2022: Keegan Bradley (-15); 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15); Hosted at Sherwood CC: 2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23); Hosted at Narashino CC: 2019: Tiger Woods (-19).
2022: Keegan Bradley: 66-65-66-68 -15/265
2021: Hideki Matsuyama: 64-68-68-65 -15/265
2019: Tiger Woods: 64-64-66-67 -19/261
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the ZOZO Championship since 2019:
Shots From the Lead: Below are the ZOZO Championship winners since 2019 and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley, Cam Davis, Cameron Champ, Rickie Fowler and Sahith Theegala.
Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.
2022: Thursday: Overcast, with rain throughout the day. High of 63. Wind NNE 8-13 mph, with gusts to 15 mph. Friday: Overcast, with light showers throughout the day. High of 67. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Saturday: Overcast in the morning and generally sunny in the afternoon. High of 74. Wind NNE 5-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 75. Wind ENE 5-10 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 64. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Scattered showers. High of 53. Wind NNE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 63. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 63. Wind NNE 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Cloudy. High of 69. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Friday: The start of the second round was postponed on Friday due to intense rains and thunderstorms. The nearest reporting station measured 9.79 inches of rain on Friday. Saturday: Sunny. High of 72. Wind NNW 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were in effect for the second round. For safety reason, spectators were not permitted to be on site for the second round. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 72. Wind N 5-10 mph. The third round began at 6:30am on Sunday, with players in groups of three starting of tees 1 and 10. Final-round tee times ran from 12:00pm – 2:00pm – Monday finish. Monday: Mostly Cloudy. High of 60. Wind NNE 5-10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Chiba, Japan is here.
There has been plenty of precipitation in this part of Japan. 190mm in September seems heavy and already we have seen over 80mm across the past week. From previous visits here I would expect soft fairway and potentially soft green conditions also. Temperatures will be between 19-23 degrees Celsius, – 66-73 Fahrenheit – which will be pleasant. Forecasted gusting 20mph south-westerly wind on Friday would make Narashino play tough, with the winds then relenting across the rest of the tournament.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the BMW Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Xander Schauffele; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Thomas Detry / Adam Svensson; 5) Sungjae Im; 6) Mark Hubbard; 7) Keegan Bradley; 8) Vincent Norrman; 9) Rickie Fowler; 10) Justin Suh; 11) Cameron Champ; 12) Kurt Kitayama; 13) Garrick Higgo; 14) Akshay Bhatia / Cam Davis / Carson Young; 17) Joel Dahmen; 18) Adam Scott; 19) Emiliano Grillo / Adam Schenk; 21) S.H. Kim / Davis Riley / Callum Tarren / Sahith Theegala / Matt Wallace.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Eric Cole / Rickie Fowler / Michael Kim; 4) Xander Schauffele; 5) J.J. Spaun / Sahith Theegala; 7) Collin Morikawa; 8) Sungjae Im / Kurt Kitayama; 10) Hideki Matsuyama; 11) Keegan Bradley / Adam Schenk; 13) Justin Lower; 14) Mark Hubbard; 15) Sam Ryder; 16) Taylor Moore; 17) Ben Griffin; 18) Justin Suh; 19) Nick Taylor; 20) Cam Davis / Beau Hossler / K.H. Lee / Adam Scott; 24) Tom Hoge; 25) Davis Riley.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Sungjae Im; 2) Sahith Theegala; 3) Rickie Fowler / Nick Taylor; 5) Eric Cole / Kurt Kitayama; 7) Xander Schauffele; 8) Collin Morikawa; 9) Satoshi Kodaira / Hideki Matsuyama; 11) Joel Dahmen; 12) Keegan Bradley; 13) J.J. Spaun; 14) Taylor Moore; 15) Beau Hossler; 16) Taylor Montgomery; 17) Cam Davis / Sam Ryder / Sam Stevens; 20) Matt Wallace; 21) Lee Hodges; 22) Min Woo Lee; 23) Aaron Rai / Adam Svensson; 25) Michael Kim.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Xander Schauffele; 2) Sahith Theegala; 3) Collin Morikawa; 4) J.J. Spaun; 5) Rickie Fowler; 6) Sungjae Im; 7) Eric Cole; 8) Mark Hubbard / Callum Tarren; 10) Kurt Kitayama; 11) Cam Davis; 12) Adam Svensson; 13) Joel Dahmen; 14) Keegan Bradley; 15) Cameron Champ; 16) Akshay Bhatia / Nick Taylor; 18) Adam Schenk; 19) Beau Hossler / Sam Ryder; 21) Thomas Detry / Adam Scott; 23) Michael Kim / Hideki Matsuyama; 25) Taylor Moore.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Xander Schauffele; 2) Michael Kim; 3) Keegan Bradley; 4) Garrick Higgo; 5) Cam Davis / Sungjae Im / Sahith Theegala; 8) Harry Hall; 9) Hideki Matsuyama; 10) Lee Hodges / Collin Morikawa / Nick Taylor; 13) Adam Svensson; 14) Rickie Fowler; 15) Taylor Moore; 16) Vincent Norrman; 17) S.H. Kim; 18) Beau Hossler; 19) Matt NeSmith / Adam Schenk; 21) Thomas Detry; 22) Will Gordon / Kurt Kitayama; 24) Ben Griffin; 25) Nicolai Hojgaard.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Xander Schauffele; 2) Sahith Theegala; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Collin Morikawa; 5) Adam Svensson; 6) Eric Cole / Cam Davis; 8) Michael Kim; 9) Keegan Bradley; 10) Rickie Fowler; 11) Beau Hossler; 12) Callum Tarren; 13) Mark Hubbard; 14) Nick Taylor; 15) J.J. Spaun; 16) Thomas Detry; 17) Hideki Matsuyama / Sam Ryder; 19) Vincent Norrman / Adam Schenk; 21) Matt Wallace; 22) Joel Dahmen; 23) Taylor Moore; 24) Nicolai Hojgaard; 25) Kurt Kitayama / Justin Suh.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of ZOZO Championship winners since 2019 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test – worthy of note that driving distance was not captured (2019) plus no data at all from the 2021 event:
2022, Keegan Bradley (-15). 298 yards (18th), 59.6% fairways (23rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (25th), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
2019, Tiger Woods (-19). 65.4% fairways (7th), 76.4% greens in regulation (3rd), 64.7% scrambling (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 30th, Driving Accuracy: 12th, Greens in Regulation: 13th, Proximity to Hole: 30th, Scrambling: 19th, Putting Average 7th.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Narashino Country Club has set up in the past and what specific skills it requires:
Keegan Bradley (2022): “Well, it’s just a really great course. Reminds me of the courses where I grew up on where I was born, tree-lined holes, got to hit good shots into little greens, so great, I love it out here. Everything felt pretty good. I made a lot of really nice putts, especially coming in. I drove the ball nice. I feel like my game’s in good shape.”
Hideki Matsuyama (2021): “The course has not changed a lot. On this course, I just need to hit on the fairway otherwise 2nd shot will be tricky. Greens are fast as they were in 2019, keeping on the fairway and putting on greens well would be key to play solidly.”
Collin Morikawa (2021): “Yeah, you know, we’re playing pretty much at sea level, so cool kind of San Francisco Bay area weather, but with this wind, when it’s downwind you can be hitting a couple clubs less and when you’re playing into the wind it can be a couple to three clubs more, so it’s all about flighting your ball. Today I definitely wouldn’t say I had my best ball-striking, but the putting saved me and I can thank the day for that.”
Tommy Fleetwood (2021): “It’s just a really good test of golf. You have to hit the fairways. Ball is pretty much uncontrollable out of the rough, which is how it should be. Then the greens, the greens are really fast with a lot of slope. I think they had some great pin positions today. It’s basically, if you’re out of position, the game gets very, very hard around this golf course, and if you’re in position, you can still mess it up at any time. So it’s great, it’s a great challenge. Obviously the standard of play these days is amazing so scoring will still be pretty good I’m sure at the end of the week. Yeah, it’s a really good golf course to play and test yourself on. Like you say, you always have to be on your guard really, you never know what’s around the corner.”
Tiger Woods (2019):”This grass, Zoysia, man, you can get some serious flyers out here, monster flyers. The one I hit on the last hole, we were trying to hit an 8-iron 200 yards and hit it 200. That’s not something I normally do.”
Rory McIlroy (2019):” I feel like it’s either you have like there’s a lot of short par 4s, under 400 yards but then there’s a lot of par 4s that are between 490 and sort of 510. So you’ve got some real tough par 4s, you’ve got par 4s you can score on. The par 3s, two of the par 3s you can, they’re short irons and then a couple of the par 3s are longer. I think the golf course has got a lot of variety.
There’s quite a few wedges into par 4s but then there’s a couple holes today that I hit a 4 and a 5-iron into them. I guess there’s a stretch on the back nine which is pretty tough as well. But it’s a great course. It’s in great condition, the greens are so pure, and it sort of reminds me a little bit of the course we play in Mexico, Chapultepec. Reminds me a little bit of that, just sort of the tree lined and sort of the doglegs and having to sort of cut off corners and stuff, but I like it.
Played pretty well, but the setup of the golf course this afternoon was really tough. The pins were all tucked away, they were on little slopes, sort of found it hard to get close to the holes. You’re hitting it to 20 feet, it’s hard to hole putts on those greens because they’re so slopey and you’re having to give them two or three feet of break every time.”
Collin Morikawa (2019): “It’s very different than what I’ve seen before, especially on the PGA Tour this last summer. It’s a lot more narrow, the fairways are a lot smaller as compared to last week. What freaked me out was the double greens. I was a little surprised, I thought I was hitting one green but turns out the hole was on another one. But I loved it. The greens are amazing. Obviously with the rain it’s going to be pretty soft. Hitting these small greens and getting off the tee in the fairway, will be the keys this week.”
Incoming Form of ZOZO Championship winners since 2019:
Keegan Bradley: 5th Sanderson/58th BMW/MC St Jude/44th Rocket Mortgage.
Hideki Matsuyama: 59th CJ Cup/67th Shriners/8th Fortinet/26th Tour.
Patrick Cantlay: 38th CJ Cup/8th Shriners/43rd US Open/12th BMW.
Tiger Woods: 37th BMW/WD Northern Trust/MC Open Champ/21st US Open.
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
4 – Hideki Matsuyama.
3 – Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott.
2 – Rickie Fowler, K.H. Lee, Xander Schauffele.
1 – Emiliano Grillo, Lee Hodges, Sungjae Im, David Lingmerth, Michael Kim, Vincent Norrman.
To this point we have had 4 winners of the ZOZO Championship. Pre-Covid pandemic the inaugural ZOZO held here at Narashino Country Club, in 2019, was won by Tiger Woods. He was a 33/1 chance. Inactive for 10 weeks, Tiger had relatively flat inbound from of 37/WD/MC/21 but naturally had won the Masters in April.
The 2020 ZOZO was held at Sherwood Country Club in California in the build-up to the November Masters. Patrick Cantlay won at 28/1. Cantlay was a non-winner in 2020 but had shown a little form following on from a disappointing FedEx Cup Playoff campaign, where he did not make the Tour Championship. 43rd at the U.S. Open was followed by 8th at the Shriners Open, where Patrick had led after 36 and 54 holes. 38th at the CJ Cup the week before was low-key, but Cantlay had closed with a promising -5/67.
Back in Japan at Narashino in 2021, home hero Hideki Matsuyama took the title at 16/1. Hideki had finished runner-up to Woods in 2019 so clearly liked the course. Inbound form like the previous ZOZO winners was again patchy. 26th at the Tour Championship, Matsuyama had played 3 times across the new PGA Tour season, registering 6th at the Fortinet Championship, 67th at the Shriners Open and 59th at the CJ Cup the week before.
2022 saw the well-backed Keegan Bradley win at 40/1, taking his first PGA Tour title for over 4 years. Course form of 13th (2019) and 8th (2021) clearly highlighted a player who liked Narashino, plus Bradley arrived after finishing 5th at the Sanderson Farms Championship a fortnight earlier.
Narashino Country Club will be the host course again in 2023. It was the venue for the Suntory Open between 1973 and 1997. But there could well be an angle from 2016 which saw Prayad Marksaeng win the Japan Senior Open. The popular Thai player had won the 2008 Dunlop Phoenix Tournament hosted at the Phoenix Country Club in Japan, and was runner-up again there in 2017.
Carrying this Narashino / Phoenix Country Club line of enquiry forward to the 2019 ZOZO, winner Tiger Woods won the Dunlop Phoenix titles back in 2004 and 2005 and was runner-up there in 2006. 2021 winner and 2019 runner-up Hideki Matsuyama also has an interesting Phoenix Country Club record which includes 2nd (2012), 6th (2013), 1st (2014), 2nd (2015), 5th (2017) and 8th (2019). Even in 2022 Andrew Putnam, who finished T2 behind Bradley at the ZOZO, had played the 2018 Dunlop Phoenix, finishing 17th.
Korean golf is in rude health at the moment. Tom Kim finished 2nd at the last Major Championship – The Open – and naturally went on to win the Shriners Children’s Open last week. S.H. Kim was runner-up at the recent Fortinet Championship on the PGA Tour. Plus Si Woo Kim landed a Gold Medal at the Asian Games in China, as did his partner Sungjae Im who also secured a silver medal by finishing second in the individual competition. Both, as a result, became exempt from the government-mandated 21 months of military service that South Korean men have to take part in before they are 35 years of age.
Since China, last week saw Sungjae return to his homeland where he finished T2 at the Genesis Championship, losing in a 3-man play off to the very much in-form Sanghyun Park. Sungjae held a 2 shot lead going into the final round, and after consecutive runner-up finishes must be looking forward to finally adding another win to his CV, potentially as early as this week at the ZOZO Championship.
3rd (2019) and 29th (2022) here at Narashino, Im has plenty of experience of competing in Japan after playing on the Japan Golf Tour both in 2016 and 2017 before moving to the Korn Ferry Tour in 2018. He also has the advantage of being in Asia across the last 3 weeks, so is lightly travelled heading in. RESULT: T12
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Cam Davis is another player who’s playing the best golf of his career at the moment.
He loves short courses and likes events where the scoring is mid-teens or slightly lower. On tracks where he can club down, he’s extremely effective. The 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic winner at the Donald Ross designed Detroit Golf Club, Cam since March has delivered 8 top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour. 6th at The Players Championship, 7th at the designated RBC Heritage, and 4th at the PGA Championship highlight the level of golf that the 28 year-old from Sydney can produce.
Into late summer and the autumn, the Australian has continued his surge. 10th at the 3M Open, 7th at the Wyndham Championship, and 6th at the FedEx St Jude Championship delivered top 50 in the FedExCup standings, meaning that the 2017 Australian Open winner will be in all of the 2024 Signature events.
3rd at the Fortinet Championship and 7th last week at the Shriners Children’s Open, Cam is one more good performance away from locking up a 2024 Masters start. 29th here on debut 12 months ago, you get the feeling that Davis is due a 2nd PGA Tour victory very soon. RESULT: T12
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Adam Schenk 1.5pts ew 33/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Adam Schenk shook the rust off last week at TPC Summerlin, missing the cut by one shot. It was his first tournament since the Tour Championship back in August, and that’s the deal with Schenk who has had his best season on the PGA Tour by a country mile. 2nd at the Valspar Championship, 2nd at the Charles Schwab Challenge, 7th at the Memorial Tournament, 7th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, plus 4th at the John Deere Classic qualified Schenk for the FedExCup Playoffs comfortably. He then really showed his metal by finishing 6th at the FedEx St Jude Championship and 9th at the Tour Championship in high-end elite fields. He was actually T6 at East Lake for 72-hole scoring, taking home a cool $990,000. Impressive! Clearly shorter, tree-lined tests are to his liking.
So what’s left in 2023 for Adam? Well he’s still winless on the PGA Tour, so a first ever win in his best ever year as a professional golfer can’t be too far from his thoughts, as will be earning an OWGR top 50 spot at the close of 2023. Schenk is also one more good performance away from locking up his first Masters start, so the 31 year-old from Vincennes, Indiana, will be motivated.
He’s also got a good record here at Narashino, where he’s an ever present. 22nd (2019), 28th (2021) and 16th (2022), Adam was 15th after 54 holes, 9th after 54 holes and 8th after 36 holes respectively across those appearances. Seems a far better player in contention these days. RESULT: T51
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Cameron Champ 1pt EW 60/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Cameron Champ is one that I’m drawn to on the basis that he is both streaky and knows how to win. Into his fifth season on the PGA Tour he has 3 wins behind him already, at the 2018 Sanderson Farms Championship, 2019 Safeway Open and the 2021 3M Open, so that’s wins across the Country Club of Jackson, Silverado CC and TPC Twin Cities. Agronomy wise we are looking at a win apiece on Bentgrass and Bent Poa Annua mix greens.
His streakiness is also interesting. 4 career wins have come off previous finishes of 8th, 25th, 28th and 11th. And when you are dealing with the 3rd longest driver currently on the PGA Tour, you won’t be surprised to here that his wins also came when he’s most confident with his driver, with victories coming off of Total Driving ranks in his previous outing of 1st, 18th, 4th and 6th. 18th last week at TPC Summerlin, Champ was 6th for Total Driving and 8th for Ball Striking.
Motivation-wise, Champ also needs to keep churning out decent results after a 9th and 18th across the past 2 weeks. At 127th in the FedExCup standings he’s outside the magical top 125 for full playing privileges in 2024 and he only got into this field via a Sponsor’s Exemption. He also plays well in Japan: 8th at the 2019 Dunlop Phoenix – played at the Phoenix Country Club – he was 8th here at Narashino 12 months ago, arriving then with form of MC-MC-MC. RESULT: T59
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